Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Around the traps”

  1. Z

    The report above funded by energy consumers was entirely about costs of energy, electricity vs gas, for old and new households, with and without solar in 2018. It is probably out of date to an extent, understating the savings for many now. Many more households would have got solar already since then, probably many of them with more than the 5kW modelled.

    They state they weren’t funded to do any emissions work, but note that they had done a little previously with RMIT and say this obviously relates to the underlying grid sources and the amount of your own energy you can generate, use or store.

    The economic and environmental arguments don’t outweigh each other, they compound the idiocy of thinking about a gas led recovery.
    Renewable energy will just be getting cheaper and cheaper vs gas if anything.

    More solar, wind, means of storage and distribution locally and over distance is all part of the energy transformation required.

  2. lizzie @ #673 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 2:01 pm

    Credlin puts pen to paper (or fingers to keyboard), vitriol added.

    Herald Sun
    @theheraldsun
    ·
    1h
    The spin from Dan Andrews and now Brett Sutton throughout the pandemic has become so comical it’s like an episode of Fawlty Towers. Except this Christmas more than 800 Victorian families will have an empty chair at the table, writes Peta Credlin.

    Abbott’s ex-nanny is like a cut-price Miranda Devine, without the latter’s credibility or charm…

  3. Lars Von Trier @ #601 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 2:08 pm

    I predict by Friday next week no one on PB will have predicted Gladys demise by last Friday.

    I suspect that Gladys will go once the back room boys work out who will replace her. Could be weeks. Could be months.

    I doubt they want to see a break out of democracy in the ranks of the Government.

  4. Andrew Clennell
    @aclennell
    ·
    6m
    Having attempted to argue her private life should remain private and has never had a bearing on her job, the NSW premier does a front page interview on … her private life … with a gossip columnist.
    2020 really has jumped the shark.

  5. Anyone wanna see the most pants-on-head fking stupid election in the history of ever? It’s first past the post (and second, and (etc) and eighth past the post), with 27 candidates. It’s optional voting, and as usual, most people opted out – a bit over 6000 people bothered voting. The lucky winners get the job of serving under a guy who used to read the sports news on Channel 7. Yes indeed folks, Perth finally has a council again.

    https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/local/election#/4A49BBA2-FF3F-4262-94F7-226CD09AEC9D/Perth

    MITCHELL, Gary 1,898 4.56%
    DAVIDSON, Charles (Mark) 1,141 2.74%
    HO, David 461 1.11%
    HILL, Shelley 1,063 2.55%
    HARLEY, Reece 1,987 4.77%
    KO, Viktor 2,072 4.97% 16 October 2021
    GOBBERT, Liam 2,201 5.28% 16 October 2021
    TROLIO, Claire 1,050 2.52%
    REYNOLDS, Bruce 2,040 4.90%
    BARTON, Lexi 1,407 3.38%
    ANGHIE, Sandy 3,339 8.02% 21 October 2023
    BAIN, Di 3,070 7.37% 21 October 2023
    HADDADEN, Nancy 1,181 2.84%
    BEVAN, Clyde 2,064 4.95% 16 October 2021
    TOULALAN, Andrew 1,144 2.75%
    SYMONDS, Deni 1,121 2.69%
    LYNES, Terresa 992 2.38%
    BERWICK, Dwayne 503 1.21%
    XIA, Taofeng (Leah) 756 1.81%
    LEZER, Catherine 2,643 6.34% 21 October 2023
    FELIX, Michael 626 1.50%
    FRANKLIN, Vance 636 1.53%
    FLEETON, Brent 2,082 5.00% 16 October 2021
    GORDON, Rebecca 2,252 5.41% 21 October 2023
    ROSENBERG, Michelle 624 1.50%
    DOSHI, Raj 1,618 3.88%
    SMITH, Aimee 1,684 4.04%
    Total valid votes 41,655 100%

    The top eight got between 8.02% and 4.95% – top four get a three year term (as does the mayor), bottom four one year.

    Bevan is one of Zempilas’ mates; Fleeton and Gordon are Liberals. Bain and Anghie both ran for mayor against Zempilas. I wonder how long it takes to get rival factions (the thing that destroyed the last council).

    Local democracy. Yay.

  6. lizzie @ #604 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 2:11 pm

    Andrew Clennell
    @aclennell
    ·
    6m
    Having attempted to argue her private life should remain private and has never had a bearing on her job, the NSW premier does a front page interview on … her private life … with a gossip columnist.
    2020 really has jumped the shark.

    Yes, I demand privacy and lack of intrusion in to my personal affairs.

    I’ve made this point over seven pages of the local scandal sheet, interviews for the most prurient current affairs shows and next week on the sails of the Opera house.

  7. “ Having attempted to argue her private life should remain private and has never had a bearing on her job, the NSW premier does a front page interview on … her private life … with a gossip columnist.”

    The Beetota Advocate expose on ‘Hot Mess Gladys’ is a much better read.

  8. Quoll

    Thanks for that.

    ‘More solar, wind, means of storage and distribution locally and over distance is all part of the energy transformation required.’

    Yes, I see the future of energy as being very localised.

    Locally, Yackandandah (population about 1000) has been working to make the town totally renewable – https://totallyrenewableyack.org.au/

  9. Nine/Fairfax continues to give oxygen to this character and his dubious associates:

    ‘Maybe sunlight could be the best vaccine’: Pete Evans endorses anti-vax party

    A radical anti-vaccination party has brought in controversial chef Pete Evans in an attempt to raise its profile ahead of the Queensland state election this month.

    The Informed Medical Options Party has endorsed 31 candidates to run in the Queensland election after fielding candidates in the federal Senate race last year, when it won 8240 first-preference votes.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/maybe-sunlight-could-be-the-best-vaccine-pete-evans-endorses-anti-vax-party-20201017-p5660h.html

  10. rhwombat

    Abbott’s ex-nanny is like a cut-price Miranda Devine, without the latter’s credibility or charm…

    Mind you she needed to be. Toned Abs was regularly performing cringeworthy gaffs so bad even Mudrake Media could not ignore them.;….. until, Enter the Dragon, she came along .It takes a certain kind of person to maintain a squirrel grip on the Mad Monk for as long as she did. It was an epic effort on Credlins part.

  11. Laughtong
    Not only have they dispersed everywhere but NZ has a community case today at its port. It is even more concerning that the Feds are managing the green zone that is supposed to ensure the bubble travellers don’t cross paths with the incoming international travellers. As the Feds don’t believe in aerosol transmission this is potentially dangerous as the track record of border force and the AFP are woeful.

    I also keep,hearing that the commonwealth has a hotspot definition but I thought the premiers never signed off on it.

  12. poroti @ #622 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 2:40 pm

    rhwombat

    Abbott’s ex-nanny is like a cut-price Miranda Devine, without the latter’s credibility or charm…

    Mind you she needed to be. Toned Abs was regularly performing cringeworthy gaffs so bad even Mudrake Media could not ignore them.;….. until, Enter the Dragon, she came along .It takes a certain kind of person to maintain a squirrel grip on the Mad Monk for as long as she did. It was an epic effort on Credlins part.

    Nah. Dependent pre-adolecents like Abbott are easy to discipline – in fact they crave it. Abbott was just an inflated condom full of Rupertnuts. Credlin was just the minder.

  13. Assantdj @ #626 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 2:55 pm

    Laughtong
    Not only have they dispersed everywhere but NZ has a community case today at its port. It is even more concerning that the Feds are managing the green zone that is supposed to ensure the bubble travellers don’t cross paths with the incoming international travellers. As the Feds don’t believe in aerosol transmission this is potentially dangerous as the track record of border force and the AFP are woeful.

    I also keep,hearing that the commonwealth has a hotspot definition but I thought the premiers never signed off on it.

    Tudge better get this sorted out in a hurry. It has disaster written all over it.

  14. It’s no good Tudge getting all red-faced and trying to say Vic border is open. Everyone knows the WA border isn’t.

    The West Australian Premier Mark McGowan says 25 travellers from New Zealand, including a child, have flown into Perth overnight despite WA being exempt from the travel bubble arrangement.

    I think this bubble idea has gone pear-shaped.

  15. Melbourne Vixens
    @MelbourneVixens
    WE DID IT! TrophySign of the hornsFox face

    This one’s for your Victoria. We couldn’t be prouder.

    Thanks for an epic Grand Final
    @WestCoastFever
    .

    Thanks to our match day partner,
    @Deakin
    .

    #DoingItForVIC #WitnessFearless #SSNGrandFinal #SSNVixensFever

    Very proud of our Vixens 🙂

  16. clem attlee

    Everything that Tudge touches gets fucked up, plus he is a nasty piece of work. He doesn’t walk, he oozes.

    It is a feature not a bug.Why he is given the jobs has has been given.

  17. Victoria never closed its borders but NSW and SA did. If Victoria is now considered safe by the federal Libs and should open up why hasn’t Morrison had a go over them keeping their borders closed.

  18. Steven Miles keeps the hits coming:

    Steven Miles
    @StevenJMiles
    ·
    Oct 17
    Finally I can reveal the economic plan the LNP have been hiding. #qldpol
    @DebFrecklington

  19. Jeff Kennett complaining he can’t celebrate Grand Final day.

    Maybe he could have a zoom party with clem and Taylormade and DimTim to cheer each other up …?

  20. Barrie Cassidy not happy, Jennifer:
    .
    @jennifer_hewett
    says the Victorian Government’s coronavirus strategy is “one of the greatest failures of political and public policy Australia has ever seen”. #auspol #insiders

    Barrie Cassidy
    @barriecassidy
    ·
    3h
    No effective climate change policy; no real protection of the barrier reef; the ruby princess; no federal ICAC; failure to do NBN once and do it with fibre..oh and just maybe our involvement in the Vietnam War.

  21. It’s only 17 days until the madness stops.

    Murdoch propaganda will change as soon as is likey Biden is President. Too late to save Murdoch and his propaganda empire.

    Fox News is facing lawsuits over its coverage of the pandemic contributing to deaths in the US. It could even become a class https://missoulacurrent.com/government/2020/04/fox-news-coronavirus/?print=print

    This will be repeated with facts and of course getting the Democrats offside will mean a few Kevin Rudd Stephen Conroy types in the Democratic Party willing to supply those facts.

    That’s ignoring audience loss as people realise they are in a bubble and have been duped. A hard core of viewers will remain but not enough to sustain all the red ink that will be coming to Murdoch’s bottom line.

    It won’t just be Trump in trouble.

    Edit: this is especially true if the Democrats win the Texas state house. The winning electorate boundaries and voting could actually become fair and easy.

  22. guytaur

    It’s only 17 days until the madness stops.

    Yaay Trumpenstein loses. First Seppo president for a geologic age not to start a new war. After Trumpenstein back to the bullshit. Praise the lord.

  23. Poroti

    Trump has few redeeming features. Not starting a war is one of them. He still managed to kill more people around the world with his disinformation campaign aided by Murdoch.

  24. What a nasty little man Greg Sheridan is. I hadn’t realised.

    Greg Sheridan, of The Australian wrote about NZ’s PM:

    “No international halo is so shabby, or so fraudulent, as that worn by New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern. Politically she resembles Dan Andrews.

  25. I was interested that up until a few minutes ago only the ABC site had covered the story of the Kiwis arriving in WA. The Age has now mentioned it as well. Tudge can’t claim WAs borders were open and WA obviously were not informed prior to arrival

  26. poroti:

    Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 2:32 pm

    We too will be Murdoch free once Morrison establishes a RC as per Rudd’s petition. And damn dem no-good All Blacks, which included at one point three Barretts, the Kiwi version of the Ella brothers – Gary, Glen, and Mark.

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