Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Around the traps”

  1. My problem with Andrews is that today has been a disaster politically. Read my first post. He built up expectations and this falls way below what people expect, given the numbers. So, some of you need to change your nappies I think.

  2. Modern Labor does anti-party leaders.

    Clearly Latham and Rudd are anti-party. these things go in threes – who will be the next anti party leader ?

  3. Video of an informative interview this morning on the ACT election, with Genevieve Jacobs and Emeritus Professor John Warhurst.

    Ms Jacobs was booted by ABC Radio Canberra a year or two back, despite being a very good presenter and interviewer. She has a conservative background but always conducted interviews in an unbiased manner.

    She now is news editor of online ‘newspaper’ The RiotACT. The video is embedded in this article:

    https://the-riotact.com/election-2020-labor-set-to-be-returned-as-libs-falter/412727

  4. P1

    Actually, no, I don’t.

    I’m not particularly interested in Labor atm (as I thought I’d made clear several times recently). I’ve never been particularly interested in NSW Labor (best avoided, I’ve always felt).

    My main engagement with Joel involved him taking something I’d spent some time developing, ignoring all the groundwork done by myself and others and then totally stuffing it up, so I definitely don’t have any time for him.

    We get back to: there is a constant stream of tweets, media releases and public statements from Green MPs on a daily basis, either directly attacking Labor or lumping them into the ‘major parties same-same’ basket. There is NOT the same back from Labor. (You appear to be unable to find more than one example).

  5. clem attlee @ #551 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 12:37 pm

    My problem with Andrews is that today has been a disaster politically. Read my first post. He built up expectations and this falls way below what people expect, given the numbers. So, some of you need to change your nappies I think.

    I think it’s you who has rolled out of bed into your cranky pants. 😆

  6. Lars

    Hewson is also anti party. Fraser was getting there.

    Rudd is probably less ‘anti party’ than either of these. (At least now that Gillard is gone).

  7. I got the impression from this distance (Sydney) that Dan Andrews was trying to cool down expectations, especially when Victorian case numbers rippled back into double figures a week or so back.

  8. Late Riser says:
    Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 12:46 pm
    who will be the next anti party leader ?
    Morrison?

    When the rapture comes, he’ll be far far away and will have no interest in such matters.

  9. guytaur @ #494 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 11:32 am

    Zoomster

    Still blaming the Greens not Labor I see.

    Labor success is not good enough for you.

    The Labor success many of us here are interested in is the one which relegates Scrooter & Co to the garbage dump of history.
    Winning in the ACT doesn’t quite do it for Mundo.
    But it was a good night, NZ was great, miserable tories galore, watched the election panel on the intertubes….quite entertaining…..

  10. Rex

    Given that Albo almost definitely stopped Plibersek from running last time – her refusal to contest was a complete surprise, remember – I doubt it.

  11. Well now I can drive an extra 20 K to visit a park and in big news, toy libraries have re opened. Yes he did say big changes would occur. This will not be well received.

  12. My problem with Andrews is that today has been a disaster politically.

    I wish I had a dollar for every time I’d puked in a bucket after reading statements like the above.

    It smacks of:

    ● Concern trollism,

    ● Advocating appearance over substance,

    ● Condescendingly implying that of course the writer isn’t fooled by mere appearances, but the common herd might well be.

    ● That somehow saving the lives of thousands of people by demonstrably, incontrovertibly succeeding in reducing infection numbers and rates to almost nil, Andrews has still failed because, for some reason, he hasn’t done the right thing for the right reason (known only to journalists and clem attlee).

    ● Or then again, maybe he’s done too much of the right thing, or the wrong thing for the right reason, or the right thing for the wrong reason, or some other thing for some other reason, because it doesn’t matter to clem, whatever the fuckin’ reason it’ll be wrong if it’s Andrews doing it.

    Cc. Taylormade, L’arse von Wanker, and all the rest of the baby bears for whom everything’s too hot, too cold, but never just right.

  13. Bush Fire Bill, I am one of Andrews biggest supporters. As I said at the out set, I stated it was a political disaster. Can you read, or just being intentionally provocative? If you are being provocative I can play that game too dick head!

  14. Excuse me while I completely ignore gratuitous advice form a pissant such as yourself. You are mistaking me for someone who gives a fuck about what you think!

  15. Citizen

    My main point was mostly how sold out Labor in NSW and Qld are to fossil fuel interests, the carbon club corrupting the policies of both the major parties particularly strongly in these states. Not so much any point on the wisdom, or not, of Labor using gas as a point of political differentiation in the ACT.

    Family in the ACT saved heaps by getting solar panels and getting the gas cut off, reverse cycle air con for both cold or hot days, using that rooftop solar inhouse, at least in part. Seems if anything people with gas are now trapped in a situation costing them more everyday, and the earth as well. Looks like an immediate ongoing saving for most there to get off gas as soon as possible if they can.

    According to the ACT government’s own actsmart website, they suggest a 5.5* rated reverse cycle a/c running costs are ~25% of what an old gas heating system does for equivalent heating. With ~31% running costs of a new gas heater system as well.
    https://www.actsmart.act.gov.au/energy-saving/heating-your-home

    Even back in 2018 there was evidence that converting from gas to electric, particularly with solar, was a net and sometimes significant saving for households almost everywhere in Australia. The addition of solar, if not already there, would be even cheaper now than then.
    https://renew.org.au/research/all-electric-solar-homes-save-thousands-over-gas-report/

    Though from what I’ve heard heat pump HWS are not quite as reliable as expected but are modelled in this report.

    “There is just no reason economically for new homes to be built with both electricity and gas,” Mr Lombard said.

    “This has been the case for many years in Australia’s north, but it’s now also clearly the case in colder climates like Victoria and Tasmania. Heat pump hot water and split system air-conditioning systems are just far more efficient than gas appliances and solar systems are cheaper than ever.”

    The report, funded by Energy Consumers Australia, calls on new home buyers as well as the building and energy industries to be educated on the substantial value of all-electric, solar-based homes.
    It also found there needed to be a review of policies and programs that subsidised or supported the expansion of gas networks.

    “Rolling out new gas infrastructure is simply not efficient and is not in the long-term interests of residential households. It locks people into higher energy costs in the long run,” Mr Lombard said.

  16. clem attlee @ #571 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 1:07 pm

    Bush Fire Bill, I am one of Andrews biggest supporters. As I said at the out set, I stated it was a political disaster. Can you read, or just being intentionally provocative? If you are being provocative I can play that game too dick head!

    Clem
    Almost straight after you first posted this you had 2 locals saying that they were happy and others pointing out things that were changing either now or in just 2 weeks. Small sample maybe but I think ok

  17. How’s that prediction of Gladys demise going for you Bushfire Bill ?

    You’re confusing my opinion with someone else’s. I didn’t predict she’d go. I just said she should.

  18. P1

    I don’t like Albo, I don’t like Joel, I’m more ambivalent about Dan than I probably should be.

    Labor’s still the only party in a position to do the things I want to see done.

    (There’ll always be people in the party I don’t like…)

    Just to show that, like all human beings, I’m inconsistent, I MAY still do another campaign. But that’s more because I recognise that that’s the best way to get attention for certain local issues than because I’m all ‘yay, Labor party.’

    I get back to….”I’m disenchanted with the Labor party” should actually be a condition of entry.

    Anyway, I’ll continue to be my contradictory, human self, and accept that others are also contradictory and human.

    At the moment, I am particularly cheesed with Labor. I’ve explained why – only yesterday, I believe. But I’m part of a fantastic – though small – Labor branch, and I’m very fond of the people in it, so I’ll keep hanging in there.

    That’s all rather garbled, I’m not trying to make any particular points, just trying to be honest about where I’m at.

  19. How’s that prediction of Gladys demise going for you Bushfire Bill ?

    Geez mate, people make guesses, but I don’t think anyone bet the house on it. Biggest the biggest stake offered was Mundo’s $5!

    That said, if I were in NSW Labor, I’d want Berejiklian and the stench of Maguire hanging around as long as possible. Anf the links to Angus Taylor are intriguing

  20. BB
    If Andrews had his shit together like all the states back in May we would not be in this position. You just can’t seem to get that into your thick head can you.

  21. Quoll

    The important thing there is that the electricity MUST be solar. Otherwise I would think that – environmentally speaking – gas is a better option.

    Disclaimer; I’m from Victoria, where the power is so dirty that even electric cars create more emissions than they save (unless charged from solar…)

  22. Bushfire Bill @ #578 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 1:15 pm

    How’s that prediction of Gladys demise going for you Bushfire Bill ?

    You’re confusing my opinion with someone else’s. I didn’t predict she’d go. I just said she should.

    Hmm yes, I remember saying the opposite re Emma Husar.

    I predicted Emma would be managed out (and she was) but others here continued to misrepresent me stating that I said she should be managed out.

    Misrepresentations and mistruths are never good.

  23. The New Zealand election result is far more than ‘maintaining the status quo’, as one poster described it. It should be borne in mind that before the advent of C.19, the Nationals led Labour 46 to 40.5 (see 1 News Colma Bruton poll, 8-12 Feb. of this year). It’s a credit to Ardern that she not only managed to reverse this poll by some 10% but can also govern in her own right, free of the pesky Peters, now yesterday’s man. Ardern’s victory is also almost proof positive that a government that puts the health of the citizenry above economic imperatives is likely to come out on top – something that bodes well for Palaszczuk, Biden, McGowan, Andrews further down the track. Maybe the political pendulum is swinging back to the centre or slightly to the left of it.

  24. Cynics will say that Andrews’ messaging is confected – but to me he does as convincing a presentation as I have seen of : “It might be unpopular; some won’t like it, but this is our best guess as to the direction we should take.”

    It would be surprising if the lockdown – and especially the likelihood of a long and painful recession in Victoria – did not cost him politically. On the other side of the ledger, I believe he will win some points for articulating a clear direction, for taking an evidence based approach to decision making and for expressing reluctance to become involved in political slangfests.

  25. Taylormade @ #581 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 1:22 pm

    BB
    If Andrews had his shit together like all the states back in May we would not be in this position. You just can’t seem to get that into your thick head can you.

    There you go again effectively accusing Andrews of cavorting with hotel quarantine guests, moonlighting as an abattoir worker and running house parties while restrictions were enforced.

  26. lizziesays:
    Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 12:48 pm
    Journos now saying “How can we trust you, Prof Sutton? You lied.”
    Sutton, “no, I didn’t”.
    Journo “I know better than you.”
    ________________
    He didn’t lie, it just didn’t register.
    Obviously you don’t have to be very smart to be a professor these days.

  27. max @ #586 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 1:30 pm

    Cynics will say that Andrews’ messaging is confected – but to me he does as convincing a presentation as I have seen of : “It might be unpopular; some won’t like it, but this is our best guess as to the direction we should take.”

    It would be surprising if the lockdown – and especially the likelihood of a long and painful recession in Victoria – did not cost him politically. On the other side of the ledger, I believe he will win some points for articulating a clear direction, for taking an evidence based approach to decision making and for expressing reluctance to become involved in a political slangfests.

    I maintain a suspicion that Andrews might up stumps not long after the Vic budget is delivered and give clean air to a new leader to consolidate for the 2022 election.

    I noted Jacinta Allen appeared at a Daily Dan a few days ago spruiking the Govts impressive infrastructure record so far. She’d be my pick to succeed.

  28. Mexicanbeemer @ #528 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 11:06 am

    lizzie says:
    Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 8:47 am

    This is a pic of Scotty NOT at a Liberal Party fundraiser. Notable to me is the dearth of women.

    ——————————-
    Lizzie
    That is none other than Sandra Russo whose has made millions from the mismanagement of the unemployed.

    Umm, Sarina Russo.

  29. Taylormade @ #588 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 1:36 pm

    lizziesays:
    Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 12:48 pm
    Journos now saying “How can we trust you, Prof Sutton? You lied.”
    Sutton, “no, I didn’t”.
    Journo “I know better than you.”
    ________________
    He didn’t lie, it just didn’t register.
    Obviously you don’t have to be very smart to be a professor these days.

    DimTim is a professor …and an epidemiologist …and a scientist …and a doctor ..a psychologist…

    DimTim is an allround GENIUS !

  30. max @ #585 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 1:30 pm

    Cynics will say that Andrews’ messaging is confected – but to me he does as convincing a presentation as I have seen of : “It might be unpopular; some won’t like it, but this is our best guess as to the direction we should take.”

    It would be surprising if the lockdown – and especially the likelihood of a long and painful recession in Victoria – did not cost him politically. On the other side of the ledger, I believe he will win some points for articulating a clear direction, for taking an evidence based approach to decision making and for expressing reluctance to become involved in a political slangfests.

    I doubt Andrews will cop much blow back. He’s already articulated that his Government will be spending on infrastructure in mind blowing amounts once the community safety aspects of the Covid are sorted.

    Morrison also goes to the polls before Dan and people will be able to see through the pathetic attempts to fit up Dan for any problems associated with the economy post pandemic.

  31. Rex Douglas:

    Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 1:37 pm

    [‘I maintain a suspicion that Andrews might up stumps not long after the Vic budget is delivered and give clean air to a new leader to consolidate for the 2022 election.’]

    I think that would depend on how the Coate Inquiry pans out. If it’s adverse, Andrews would probably pass the baton; if it’s not, I think he’ll lead Labor to the next election.

  32. The Premier is entitled to give himself a fighting chance when the report comes out on 6 November 2020. To open up largely now risks a breakout bythen and Victoria cannot be substantially closed on that date.

  33. @princeplanet:

    “ To bushfire Bill , I reckon if Labor had if found a way to deal with the whole Rudd thing witout having to publically humiliate him, Australia’s perception of the ALPs management would be better now. Rudd who worked around the clock during GFC was getting the accolades off the public while LNP were saying Australia dodged a recession through luck and China. When he was a deposed every halfwitted ALP member gave the LNP/conservative media their attack lines.Rudd was unstable, said some ALP MPs and if he was ( thought the general public) the LNP was right, Aus was just plain lucky.When Tony Bourke,Kate Ellis and others lined up to denigrate Rudd on his first challenge against Gillard I knew Abbott was a shoe in and the ALP brand in my state of Qld would struggle at federal level. Thanks NSW right!!!!”

    You started off well, but ruined your point with your unhinged last sentence.

    For the record: Bowen, Husic, McLelland and Fitzgibbon were publicly identified Rudd supporters. There were others. All NSW Right wingers. Some of the most damaging anti – Rudd comments in February 2012 came from the likes of Swan, Emerson, Roxon and Crean. All right wingers from outside NSW. Rudd had the support of prominent left wingers like Carr and of course Albo.

    Whilst the rest of your post is spot on, one cannot view the R-G-R wars from a purely factional perspective. Save to say that if the factions were actually more internally disciplined in 2006-13 period then things wouldn’t have descended into the personalised hot mess as they did. Personal indulgences ruined two Labor PMs, and put back the progressive cause in Australia for a decade and counting.

  34. Credlin puts pen to paper (or fingers to keyboard), vitriol added.

    Herald Sun
    @theheraldsun
    ·
    1h
    The spin from Dan Andrews and now Brett Sutton throughout the pandemic has become so comical it’s like an episode of Fawlty Towers. Except this Christmas more than 800 Victorian families will have an empty chair at the table, writes Peta Credlin.

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