Around the traps

As the government approaches the middle of its term, the first sighting of early election speculation in the wild.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reckons “two basic assumptions are driving the economic and political debate in 2021”, and that one of these is that there will be an election late next year. The other is that COVID-19 restrictions will start to ease in the coming months; “neither is certain”. The government’s election window opens in the middle of the year, at which point the Senators given six-year terms after the 2016 double dissolution will enter the final year of the terms, the period in which the half-Senate election to replace them may be held.

That will do as a kick-off for a new open thread, which is needed because there are so many other posts flying around at the moment. For convenience, these include:

• Adrian Beaumont’s New Zealand live election count post, which will begin in earnest when polls close at 7pm New Zealand time and 5pm Australian eastern daylight time – to be followed an hour later by my own live commentary post on the Australian Territory election. And if you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my collective preview of the two here.

• Also from Adrian Beaumont, a review of the US situation.

• A post on a Newspoll result showing Labor leading 52-48 in Queensland.

• Another post on the Queensland campaigning detailing relevant recent developments.

• A post on a Ten News uComms poll from New South Wales showing strong support for Gladys Berejiklian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Around the traps”

  1. Ou my frickin goodness. GladysB has lost all credibility with the new idea style spread in the daily tele. How corrupt must NSW politics be.
    Sheesh.

  2. (Also posted on the ACT election thread – the ACT Liberals continue to self destruct.)

    The party had attempted to re-brand themselves as socially conscious and moderate, making a prominent play of their million trees policy and plans for social housing.

    But well-placed sources suggest that internal tensions between conservatives and moderates within the party are still wreaking havoc with their chances of victory.

    There are reports that funds were re-allocated to more conservative candidates in the final days of this campaign, while others were allegedly caught red-handed destroying election signage belonging to their factional opponents.

    Both are indicators that the Liberals continue to be more focussed on the party room contest than the election itself and that Senator Zed Seselja still has a powerful influence on local politics. Alistair Coe is a conservative power broker who has managed the Party room numbers deftly in the past.

    https://the-riotact.com/how-the-party-room-battle-defeated-liberals-chances-of-winning-an-its-time-election/412814

  3. No wonder this man won the Nobel Prize!

    Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty

    #Insiders What happened in Vic could have happened anywhere. The Vic Health Dept had been damaged by years of cuts & had become over-centralized. Who made those cuts? Would be great for a good journalist to do some serious forensic analysis! And the deaths in private aged care?

    Such a perspicacious thinker.

  4. Half rhetorical & half genuine;
    The Federal Government & its agencies are responsible for who enters the country, right? In better times for them they crow about it. Surely they must be responsible for informing prospective arrivals where they can & can’t go? So why didn’t they? And why didn’t they make sure it was enforced?

  5. lizzie @ #645 Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 4:07 pm

    What a nasty little man Greg Sheridan is. I hadn’t realised.

    Greg Sheridan, of The Australian wrote about NZ’s PM:

    “No international halo is so shabby, or so fraudulent, as that worn by New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern. Politically she resembles Dan Andrews.

    Given their latest election results, I think the old darling is a bit out of touch with real people.

  6. BSA Bob

    I’ve lost the tweet, but apparently they realised their instructions weren’t clear and changed them in the night. Now the rules are the way they should be.

  7. clem attlee
    Dan Andrews has said over and over he is not playing politics he is doing what is right. He would prefer the decisions to be health based and if that means slower opening that is what he will do.
    He should not only be applauded for that but the fact he explains his reasoning and the health advice fully and frequently.

    In my opinion many people will find these actions reassuring and think he is doing what’s necessary. They will also be noting that the people making the most noise have nothing to lose, they are not responsible or they are pursuing their own self interest.

  8. C@tmomma:

    Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 3:50 pm

    [‘Steven Miles keeps the hits coming’]

    (Dr.) Miles throws back at “Freckles” and the Feds everything they throw at Labor. He’s good value and would be in line to replace Palaszczuk when she pulls the plug.

  9. I’m surprised GB survived the week and still believe her poor judgement wa sufficient for her resignation. Hard to argue that she isn’t one tough competitor though.

  10. Davidwh

    Gladys is incompetence and not that tough either , she had deliberately hidden herself , from media conferences which she normally attends.

    Also Gladys would know that the corrupt foreign own libs/nats media propaganda units would protect her, like with fluff pieces in newsltd

  11. Davidwh I knew Gladys was going to survive when the prurient excitement levels took off about Gladys sex life amongst the pollbludger panty sniffer faction.

  12. Jennifer Hewitt submitted to a stylist to make her look sexy and with-it
    Effect was mutton dressed as lamb , or may be it was her vile partisan hatred of Labo(u)r

    Gladys hired a stylist to dress her as vulnerable uncomfortable mouse. Nothing she is wearing is from her wardrobe, it’s all op shop

  13. Lars Von Tier

    If Gladys was in a court hearing , she would likely be a person of interest (accomplice ) She knew corruption was going on, phones taps heard she even gave advice to Maguire in how to fix his deals, and how not to involved her

  14. You can tell the LNP defenders here.

    It’s about her sex life not her integrity.

    You can tell everyone else. It’s about integrity and ethics not private lives.

    Edit sorry in regards to Berejikilian

  15. Come now guytaur, one just needs to look at BB , GG and sprockets early posts when the affair was revealed to know what it was all about.

  16. George Takei
    @GeorgeTakei
    ·
    16h
    Early voting has surged to 24.2 million already, 17x the rate of 2016 same time. Yes, 1700%.

    The voters. That’s the October surprise.

  17. On the subject of nonsense, I’m surprised that Gladys would have agreed to that front page article in the Telegraph. It makes her look like some silly girl taken in by a rogue. Of course Gladys is neither silly not a girl. Couldn’t the Telegraph find any achievements of hers to boost?

  18. Aqualung
    Sunday, October 18th, 2020 – 4:31 pm
    Comment #654

    I know, I know. Facebook is evil but every now and then something like this pops up. No idea who either of are. Enjoy.

    I did indeed enjoy. Above and beyond the price of admission today …

  19. There were many lies Morrison told in Queensland

    The federal government did not want Qld to open their borders

    Evidence
    Morrison attack and tried to bully the Qld premier to open the borders

    Courtcase ,Morrison and his cronies were in a party with hanson and co for QLD to open the borders

  20. According to the corrupt foreign own libs/nats media propaganda units

    Daniel Andrews should resign because he did not stop the passengers from New Zealand who landed in Sydney NSW, breaking the travel bubble and allowing them to catch planes to Victoria , Western Australia, Tasmania

  21. Daniel Andrews should resign because he did not stop the passengers from New Zealand who landed in Sydney NSW, breaking the travel bubble and allowing them to catch planes to Victoria , Western Australia, Tasmania
    _______
    Yes, it’s cut and dried . . . well, by certain standards!

  22. Jodi McKay
    @JodiMcKayMP
    ·
    6h
    I know I said Gladys’ private relationships is just that – private.
    BUT how can you say your relationship is not of ‘sufficient status’ to disclose then in the next breath ‘I loved him & wanted to marry him.’

    You cannot have it both ways. There are too many inconsistencies.

  23. billie

    Jennifer Hewitt should be prepared to dress as her own character – the solid schoolmarm disapproving type. I couldn’t take my eyes off those exposed knees, never a woman’s best feature.

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