Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:
• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.
• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.
• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.
• The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.
• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.
Confessions @ #128 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 9:39 am
You’re forgetting about the One Rule for Labor rule.
mundo says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 10:02 am
‘Gladys Berejiklian has not blinked’
Another lesson for fed. Labor.
———-
Disagree it shows Berejiklian is weak
If she was strong , the libs/nats coalition would have been over today
She would have advise the governor that she would not be able to guarantee a stable government and called the election
Instead she is allowing the nationals to keep her in power
If the Nats dump Barilaro, that will be a win-win.
As if the gNats would ever voluntarily take their arses off the ministerial chairs with all the $$$$$s and perks it entails. Not to mention losing the ability to help maaaaaaates and ‘encourage’ donations.
Mavis says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 9:56 am
His continual refusal to answer questions relating to the Quarantine problems, despite the Commmissioner publicly stating there was no reason not to answer questions as it is not a court of law, is a deliberate act designed to defer and therefore minimise criticism.
Anyone have a date for the last time the Health Minister fronted the daily COVID Presser?
If the NSW liberals were the gold standard as Morrison claimed
This would have been the perfect chance to call the election and see if the public agrees
But by allowing the national party to be in government , the liberal party are not confident of winning the NSW election , without the national party
Victoria @ #67 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 8:47 am
There’s a team?
Imagine how dangerous Barilaro would be in Fed government.
The ALP should recruit Scott as a strategy and policy adviser – unrecognised genius.
guytaur @ #146 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 8:03 am
Does the ACT legislation carry any of those?
It sounds very messy and it doesn’t stop the advertising being published.
For any legislation to be effective it needs to have a mechanism that stops any publication at all.
RonniSalt
@RonniSalt
·
12m
Ahem
Hi media
Bronnie Taylor & her family, as well as John Barilaro, own millions & millions of dollars of farmland in eastern NSW
Farm land that’s financially impacted by Gladys’s proposed new strict land clearing laws & habitat protection
This ain’t about the koalas.
Scott
You are falling for the LNP narrative
Peter Collins on News Radio just now.
“Having Ministers on the Crossbench is ludicrous”
You may not agree with Greens being Ministers in Labor governments but it is an experience that is not ludicrous.
This is the insidious narrative to undermine minority government as a good thing.
The demands to be in the ministry after spitting the dummy were ludicrous. Not the way Collins put it. This is where Mundo is right about Labor not being strong.
It goes along with the narrative and the drip drip drip sees any minority government labelled by Newscorpse as illegitimate.
Until it’s a Liberal minority government of course.
Bucephalus
You got to admit it does show Berejiklian is not as strong as she is made out to be
She had the chance to get rid of the national party and did not go through with it
lizzie says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 10:07 am
I remain bemused at the silence from the defenders of human rights who sat meekly by while Andrews locked down tower blocks full of innocent people. One of the greatest infringements of Australians’ human rights in a clearly discriminatory manner inflicted on some of the most vulnerable in society and yet nothing. The same human rights defenders that have been tying themselves in knots over Australian treatment of non-Australian illegal arrivals for over a decade yet when a real case for outcry existed they did nothing.
guytaur
The usual definition of a political lie is when a party says something during an election campaign then don’t deliver it.
The problem with fining them for ‘lying’ will depend on proving intent at the time.
So if a party promised during an election to allocate X amount of funding to education, had every intent of doing so, but then was prevented by unforeseen circumstances, they wouldn’t have ‘lied’.
The only effect laws on truth in advertising can have in politics is where a party knowingly lies. It does happen, of course, but it’s also not a hard thing to get around (throw around a few qualifiers such as ‘alleged’ ‘it seems’ ‘rumour has it..’ and you’re probably apples).
I’d be interested in you providing a specific example of a lie which is provably so at the time the information is being presented to the public, which are the only ‘lies’ this kind of legislation could deal with.
For example, I don’t think a ‘lie’ of the nature of “Labor isn’t saying this, but vote them in and I believe that that will result in the end of the world’ would qualify. It’s a personal opinion. It may not be based on evidence, but it’s not a ‘lie’.
What’s the bet that this will be held over for a “major boost to mental health” announcement in the barrel scraping, I mean budget , by the treasurer (snort) Josh “I’ve only got ten fingers and toes” Frydenberg?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-sitting-on-key-mental-health-report-for-10-weeks-as-budget-looms-20200910-p55uej.html
Barney
It hits the bottom line. It adds costs to the advertising.
That’s what will stop it.
All without having to pretend lying is free speech to be defended against truth and accuracy
guytaur says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 10:17 am
Scott
You are falling for the LNP narrative
—————-
No , i am not falling gullible to the liberal party stunt
The Liberal party are not strong without the national party as they think
The national party will get their way , before the upcoming state election
Zoomster
Address your concern to Andrew Barr Labor Leader going into Caretaker mode ACT.
They have researched and put legislation in place addressing your concerns.
Scott says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 10:18 am
She’s fucking won.
Why would she want to get rid of the Nationals? Just because they have a peanut for a leader at the moment doesn’t change the fact that the Liberal and National Party are the most successful political coalition in the country and have much in common.
Perhaps the GNats realized that the Koala laws may not necessarily apply to them if it suits them?
Scott
You are falling for the narrative.
Not the facts of course the Liberals are weaker because the Nationals publically announced they wanted a divorce.
The real reason the LNP wants shot of Koalas is because whenever one of their pollies pick up and hold one the Koala piddles on them.
mundo:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 10:03 am
[‘JG did a pretty good job.’]
That she did though no one has gone through what Andrews has in the C.19 era.
Bu
“I remain bemused at the silence from the defenders of human rights who sat meekly by while Andrews locked down tower blocks full of innocent people.”
Now you’re just being silly. You know they were locked down because there was a Covid outbreak in the tower block – not because they were poor or vulnerable or new immigrants or whatever. The same thing should have been done in response to rampant infections on the Ruby Princess (a very different demographic).
Stop trying to stir up shit.
Bucephalus
‘I remain bemused at the silence from the defenders of human rights who sat meekly by while Andrews locked down tower blocks full of innocent people..’
1. Twitter went ballistic on this. I’m surprised you missed it.
2. It has since been stated that these actions prevented 35,000 cases of COVID.
3. When people quarantined in hotels made similar complaints, the response was to suck it up.
4. Most of the angst I saw came from outsiders. The people in the high rises appeared to (by and large) understand the necessity.
5. Most of the legitimate complaints, which were mainly about problems to do with the (necessary) haste of the lockdowns – lack of medication, for example – were dealt with fairly promptly.
Bucephalus says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 10:23 am
She’s fucking won.
—————–
Won what exactly ?
It shows the liberal party can not govern without the national party , what is stopping the national party blackmailing to go on the cross bench each time they want their way
guytaur says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 10:24 am
Scott
You are falling for the narrative.
Not the facts of course the Liberals are weaker because the Nationals publically announced they wanted a divorce.
————————————————-
How am i falling for the narrative
I agree it makes the liberal party weaker
Victoria says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 9:21 am
“Buce
By all mean focus on Victoria who is not due to go to an election until November 2022.
Meanwhile the NSW govt is a shit show.”
Gladys has it under control. Next Dog bites Man.
I wonder how much of the $1billion or so has been siphoned off by The Donald and cronies?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republican-worries-rise-as-trump-campaign-pulls-back-from-television-advertising/2020/09/10/92db20e4-f2b7-11ea-b796-2dd09962649c_story.html
Bucephalus says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 10:23 am
the fact that the Liberal and National Party are the most successful political coalition in the country and have much in common.
——————————————-
I do agree with you about having much in common
Politcal fraud , they are not different entities
Just think Tim Wilson knowingly does not take his job seriously
Barilaro has called a liberal, Catherine Cusack, a drunk which could make it a little harder for him.
Under the current recession
The libs/nats should be made to merge like they have in QLD
it would save the taxpayer millions
There would be no need for the tax payer to be paying separate wages for the national and deputy national party leaders
Scott.
The Premier does not have the option of calling an election. NSW has fixed term parliaments and the Constitution does not permit the Governor to issue writs for an early election unless –
(1) The government is defeated by a formal vote of no confidence moved with one week’s notice.
(2) A period of two weeks has elapsed in which the original vote has not been cancelled, either by confidence being expressed in the existing or a new government.
Only after that process of about 4 weeks does the Premier have the option of requesting an election.
And none of that was an option unless Labor moved a vote of no confidence and the National Party voted with Labor. That was simply never going to happen.
https://www.tai.org.au/content/act-should-lead-way-truth-political-advertising
For Labor people.
Oh dear it’s not just the Greens. It’s actually Labor working with the Greens and succeeding
Jay Weatherill and Craig Emerson calling for same in their Election 2019 report.
Antony Green says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 10:40 am
Scott.
The Premier does not have the option of calling an election. NSW has fixed term parliaments and the Constitution does not permit the Governor to issue writs for an early election unless –
(1) The government is defeated by a formal vote of no confidence moved with one week’s notice.
(2) A period of two weeks has elapsed in which the original vote has not been cancelled, either by confidence being expressed in the existing or a new government.
Only after that process of about 4 weeks does the Premier have the option of requesting an election.
And none of that was an option unless Labor moved a vote of no confidence and the National Party voted with Labor. That was simply never going to happen.
———————————-
thank you Antony for that clarification
The Libs have just highlighted the obvious, that the Nats are nothing without them.
Sure the Libs need the Nats to form a Government most of the time, but the Nats are in the minority at all times and they have no chance of forming their own Government.
The Nats are now in the position of recognising this, but they also have to try and spin it in some way that saves a little face.
The alternative is to let their egos run wild and blow up the Coalition, something that will benefit no one.
Re. my post last night regarding Gladys Berejiklian, John Barilaro, #koalakiller and Friendly Jordie: Jordan Shanks is claiming bragging rights this morning.
https://youtu.be/QpzFHztwLdE
A fair claim, too, in my opinion.
You have to wonder how hacks in Newsltd and the pro coalition media can keep a straight face
attacking annastacia palaszczuk , when the same hacks support the measures by Morrison and his cronies actions against Refugees/asylum seekers or Australians who are either overseas or being barred from entering nsw from victoria , for funerals or seeing people who are ill
Scott @ #177 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 10:27 am
er….being in government?
Barney
With any luck the Nationals humiliation will give power to Morrison to move towards a rebranded carbon price.
I want the energy wars to end so we can see a wedge disappear. I am under no illusion Morrison wants Labor to continues to be wedged. However he also wants to be on the right side of history.
So we have a glimmer of hope.
mundo says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 10:51 am
Scott @ #177 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 10:27 am
er….being in government?
——————————
Those national party knows now that , the libs will not break the coalition deal , no matter what
The national party has exposed the liberal party bluff ,
guytaur @ #197 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 8:51 am
How does this work when much of the opposition is within his own Party?
Buce writes:
“I remain bemused at the silence from the defenders of human rights who sat meekly by while Andrews locked down tower blocks full of innocent people. One of the greatest infringements of Australians’ human rights in a clearly discriminatory manner inflicted on some of the most vulnerable in society and yet nothing. The same human rights defenders that have been tying themselves in knots over Australian treatment of non-Australian illegal arrivals for over a decade yet when a real case for outcry existed they did nothing.”
Buce you’ve been doing a creative writing course and hence all the emotive language. It seems so …motivated.
Have you heard of motivated reasoning?
I’m bemused because I thought you were a libertarian and into rationality and yet in your paragraph you use so many irrational undefined and inaccurate terms such as “silence”, “sat meekly by”, “defenders of human rights”, “clearly discriminatory manner”, “inflicted upon”, “vulnerable people”.
No rational person could conflate the lock down of the towers with the way Australian governments have treated people who come here for a better life.
So funny, really that you think so much of your self as a superior example of a human being and yet you reveal such a lack of any of the civilised virtues that traditionally make up a decent human being.
Barney
You do know what the phrase a glimmer of hope means?