Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:
• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.
• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.
• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.
• The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.
• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.
guytaur.
Last summer that wedge went away. 5 months of the worst bushfires has changed people ideas about CC.
All labor need to do turn it into a reverse wedge is constantly talk about becoming a clean energy superpower. Oh and you know lock fitz in a closet somewhere.
I’ve seen Albo talking about that this week. But he needs to start ringing that bell everyday and talking about a renewables led recovery up to and past the budget.
It’s the sort of vision that people can understand and most importantly “it’s time”
Scott @ #198 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 8:54 am
So despite Antony highlighting the Nats bluff you still persist with this line of thought! 🙂
Greg Hunt mentioned the Victorian human rights charter in his comments yesterday, while questioning the need for the Melbourne curfew. Tim Wilson has picked it up:
There were other voices involved, not just health and police. Media cherry-picking.
guytaur @ #201 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 8:56 am
Apparently for you it means none at all!
Antony Green writes:
Yeah, maybe, but it would have been sweet to see the Nats forced to endorse the sacking of their own ministers by voting confidence in Berejiklian’s decision to sack them. Talk about “Turkies voting for Christmas”!
And why was it “Never going to happen” anyway?
We’ve seen Barilaro admit to voting for Mike Kelly, campaign against the Libs in the recent E-M by-election, and now paint himself into an untenable numbers corner against the Libs. Why not do something *else* that’s completely stupid and seemingly designed to prove the Nats hate the Libs and want the Shooters and Fishers to wipe the Nats out?
At least the S&Fs aren’t claiming that koalas are a legitimate extinction target.
Spare me the crocodile tears over Morrison still not over his father’s death 40 years later…how did they treat Gillard the week after her father’s death~ he died of shame, if she can’t take the heat resign etc etc….
south
I agree with you. I hope Labor does too.
I am hoping Morrison sees this and rebrands. I think that’s what the whole gas thing is about. However Barney is right about the opposition inside the LNP. Most of them being Nationals however is why I have some hope the deniers are losing.
Already Federal Labor can call Morrison the Koala Killer ally.
If you can fake sincerity you’ve got it made.
Bucephalus writes:
Gee, Horsey, you didn’t think they were so innocent when you were calling them “African gangs”.
The blatant lying of the RioTinto executives reveals the sheer effrontery of the CEO breed.
Bushfire Bill @ #210 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 9:12 am
It’s his colonial paternalism coming out. 🙂
south @ #197 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 10:57 am
Really not sure Albo’s up to the vision thing. Anthony Albanese, visionary….lacks something. Albo working behind the scenes on the mechanics of vision delivery, sure…but the other bit, nah…..
B
“Anyone have a date for the last time the Health Minister fronted the daily COVID Presser?”
She’s speaking now if you’d like to watch
Bushfire Bill says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 11:12 am
“Gee, Horsey, you didn’t think they were so innocent when you were calling them “African gangs”.”
I don’t believe I ever posted in relation to that issue but if you can fund something I will stand corrected.
mundo,
a fair criticism. But he doesn’t need to be more visionary than.
“You’ll make a ton of money with solar panels everywhere and maybe the world won’t become a post apocalyptic hell-scape. AND maybe your kids and grandchildren won’t salt the earth of your grave out of spite for you.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
So despite Antony highlighting the Nats bluff you still persist with this line of thought!
———————-
How so ?
Was making a comment about
the national party members know that it would be very unlikely that the liberal party leader would call off the coalition deal, if they keep on threatening to go to the cross bench
i wasn’t commenting about the national party voting against the liberal party in a no confidence motion
Interesting to see if someone will ask the premier or the health minister to comment on Aly’s observation reproduced by OC:
“Victoria entered this pandemic with the least-resourced public health operation in the country (per capita), thanks to successive governments’ budget decisions. It was understaffed, had outdated IT systems, and found itself with little choice but to recruit inexperienced people who would inevitably make mistakes.”
ajm says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 11:20 am
““Anyone have a date for the last time the Health Minister fronted the daily COVID Presser?”
She’s speaking now if you’d like to watch”
Lazarus rises!
And they’ve caved on allowing Religious leaders to visit the dying.
The polling must have scared them.
Scott @ #218 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 9:24 am
Because that threat holds no threat.
It actually weakens the Nats because they will lose their Ministries.
No confidence motion to be put on Tuesday.
Barney
I think you made a typo.
I think you meant to say that threat has no power or leverage or credibility.
🙂
Torchbearer says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 11:02 am
“Spare me the crocodile tears over Morrison still not over his father’s death 40 years later”
His father died on 2 Jan 2020.
My father died late last year and it’s still pretty raw despite not being able to communicate with him for about 5 years prior.
You cockwomble.
guytaur @ #223 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 9:36 am
No.
Gladys the Iron Gladioli.
Sorry, should have been.
No typo.
Barney
Then you are wrong.
The threat is burn down the house. Or as BB put it turkeys voting for Christmas
Journos asking stupid questions again.
All together now
.
Roll out the Barilaro
We’ll heave ho Barilaro for fun
Roll out the Barilaro
We’ve got the blues on the run
Zing boom tarara
Ring out a song of good cheer
Now’s the time to roll the Barilaro
For the gang’s all here
Roll out the Barilaro
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
6,588,163
Deaths:
196,328
– 38,811 new cases and 1,090 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Bucephalus @ #219 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 11:37 am
Apparently Scrooter’s father died of shame.
(so lock me up for feck sake)
Barilaro can join my poker game any time!
guytaur @ #228 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 9:40 am
It wasn’t a typo, your comprehension just failed you again. 🙂
mundo @ #227 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 11:47 am
Oh shit, Mundo is sorry.
That was insensitive.
It was Julia Gillard’s father who died of shame.
south @ #212 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 11:23 am
Mundo and Mrs Mundo did not get to breed, but I take your point.
Still think Labor needs a better salesman.
Mundo is like Poorleen in some respects.
He often says things everyone wants to say but know they shouldn’t.
Bucephalus @ #218 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 11:32 am
I’ve actually seen her several times recently. You do really need to keep up to date if yu want to avoid own goals.
Apparently sacraments for the dying were always permitted. Obviously just some troublemakers noticed the exact words spoken in the last rites weren’t mentioned in the health directions, so claimed that it was banned.
Barney
Yeah yeah it’s my comprehension that’s the failure. 😆
Fulvio Sammut @ #232 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 11:51 am
You mean like, Pauline Hanson is a grotesque succubus on the polity of Australia?
(take some time to unpack this one)
This is the positive spin for the LNP.
😆
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-nationals-back-down-after-berejiklian-s-ultimatum-20200911-p55ult.html
Edit: in case of misunderstanding it’s also proper journalism not propaganda
ajm
People are picking through the entrails trying to catch the government out. Not helpful.
guytaur @ #239 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 9:54 am
When you respond the way you so often do, that seems the obvious reason.
No, like Mundo’s response to Buce.
And I have no quarrel with Mundo’s assessment of Poorleen either.
Scott@ 10.07:
“Disagree it shows Berejiklian is weak
If she was strong , the libs/nats coalition would have been over today
She would have advise the governor that she would not be able to guarantee a stable government and called the election
Instead she is allowing the nationals to keep her in power”
Disagree completely. She demonstrated emphatically that she has the nats on a leash and they are hopelessly bound to follow her bidding. They have no leverage over her whatsoever – at least not under Barillaro. He played his trump card, and he lost, and is consequently completely impotent. I’m not sure how his position can be tennable now.
Barney
Nah you make claims I do not make very often.
It’s your personal bias for whatever reason.
You then claim it’s my fault all the time never your own.
Shellbell @ #185 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 10:34 am
The only job he ever took seriously was being an IPA shill on the ABC before he went into parliament. It’s hard work getting your profile up. 🙂
guytaur @ #246 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 10:00 am
Have you gone back and looked at the words I wrote?
Where was the typo?
Big A Adrian @ #243 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 12:00 pm
Let’s just wait and see if Gladys Berejiklian capitulates to the Taylor family and Barilaro behind closed doors in the next couple of weeks as their discussions ensue.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/09/09/the-dismissal-whitlam-the-australian/
($)
Big A,
I reckon you are on the money with your assessment. Gladys had to play hardball or her position would have been impossible to manage.
I was thinking what motivated Barilaro on this suicide mission. Apart from hubris, arrogance and attempt to bully the LIbs which are all the usual superficial observations, I always look to the horse called “Self Interest”. Barilaro is a wealthy pastoralist with significant personal property ownership in the areas that will be affected by the Koala legislation. Such legislation undermines his personal wealth if the land cannot be developed.