Something for everybody

Great polling for Labor in Victoria, catastrophic polling for Labor in Victoria, and a mixed bag of federal seat polling — but seemingly a very clear picture in Western Australia.

Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:

• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.

• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.

• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.

The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.

• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,679 comments on “Something for everybody”

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  1. Victoria entered this pandemic with the least-resourced public health operation in the country (per capita), thanks to successive governments’ budget decisions. It was understaffed, had outdated IT systems, and found itself with little choice but to recruit inexperienced people who would inevitably make mistakes.

    WA sent a team of health professionals to Victoria to assist with contact tracing. I assume other states did the same?

  2. guytaur @ #91 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 7:09 am

    Scott

    I would agree except changes are happening.

    The ACT has already put law in place about Truth in political advertising.
    That’s going to have a huge impact on the ignorant voters around the country. Youtube will not have Clive Palmer advertising or breach ACT law.

    :lo: 😆 😆

    You do love to overplay the ACT’s influence.

  3. Urban Wronski
    @UrbanWronski

    Yet to hear any MSM journalist ask Gladys to account for the 1,330% increase in land clearing under NSW Liberal–National leadership – since the weakening of biodiversity and conservation laws in 2017.

    Yet Barilaro and The Gnats want to make it so much worse. Australia is already a world leader in extinction!

  4. BK

    Fingers crossed for a clear X-Ray.

    I take the Victorian seat polling with a grain of salt but the fact that they were able to produce those numbers shows the damage that is being done finally for Andrews’ poor decision making, avoidance of answering questions, hiding the Health Minister and the revelations in the Inquiry.

  5. People on twitter used to complain about Barrie Cassidy when he fronted Insiders. Let’s be honest, whoever was the host of the show would always draw criticism from the fanatics on social media who just want to see and hear reporting that reinforces their views.

  6. As expected Gladys Berejiklian was not serious it was a stunt

    She threaten at 9 am friday , she will swear in a new ministry

    nothing has happen

  7. This from another reporter an hour ago

    James O’Doherty
    @jmodoh
    ·
    1h
    If the Nationals stand firm and walk (read: are sacked) from the ministry, one option on the table is to not guarantee confidence and supply in the government.
    I’m told the Libs are “risking” losing a vote of no confidence on Tuesday if that happens, seeing govt collapse

  8. [‘US President Donald Trump has tried to turn the tables on Bob Woodward, saying the acclaimed journalist should have alerted authorities if he believed Trump put lives at risk by downplaying the threat of the coronavirus early in the year.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/donald-trump-under-fire-attempts-to-shift-blame-to-bob-woodward-20200911-p55ul3.html

    Trump is nothing but predictable. You’d think he’d be savaged by voters for downgrading the seriousness of C.19 but being teflon-coated, he’ll retain his core supporters. And it says something of the arrogance, stupidity of the man at the time (Feb) the interviews with Woodward were recorded. He’s still arrogant and stupid but crunch time is nigh. I think if Biden gets through the debates unscathed (scheduled, Sept 29 and 15 & 22 Oct), they’ll be a new occupant in the WH come noon, Jan 20.

  9. From The Guardian

    A compromise has emerged to stave off a damaging split within the NSW coalition with the premier, Gladys Berejiklian agreeing to further talks over the state’s new koala protections.

    The premier has offered to put the new koala state environment protection policy at the top of the agenda at the next cabinet meeting in two weeks time, in a bid to try and address the Nationals’ concerns about the policy.

    The move staves off for now the dissolution of the Coalition, which the National party leader, John Barilaro had threatened to end by moving his 13 Nationals to the cross benches and abstaining from voting.

  10. Barney

    I would say the same if any other jurisdiction had done so.

    Youtube has to abide by laws in all jurisdictions it cannot excise the ACT and continue advertising legally everywhere else.

    You love to downplay the ACT every chance you get.

    Shock horror Labor might realise they can work with the Greens.

  11. Buce

    By all mean focus on Victoria who is not due to go to an election until November 2022.

    Meanwhile the NSW govt is a shit show.

    Lol!

  12. So the black mailers won.

    A weak premier in a divided government

    Labor should win the next election in NSW.

    Don’t forget the Koala Killer advertising

  13. Linda Silmalis (The Daily Telegraph)
    @LindaSilmalis
    Nationals “holding firm”. Meeting underway with premier on Level 20 of 52 Martin Place #nswpol

  14. Alex Hart
    @alexhart7
    ·
    2m
    Deputy went straight into Premier’s office. He wants debate/negotiations on policy brought forward. She wants commitment to Coalition until next election. Told at this stage she will be swearing in a new ministry and Libs suggest his leadership untenable. #nswpol
    @7NewsSydney

  15. guytaur @ #110 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 7:21 am

    Barney

    I would say the same if any other jurisdiction had done so.

    Youtube has to abide by laws in all jurisdictions it cannot excise the ACT and continue advertising legally everywhere else.

    You love to downplay the ACT every chance you get.

    Shock horror Labor might realise they can work with the Greens.

    It’s a Territory with limited powers.

    These laws will not effect federal or State advertising.

  16. Lizzie

    You shouldn’t be down. How ironic that for all the pile on the Victorian govt., it is the NSW govt in crisis. You cant make this shit up.

  17. Shellbell
    says:
    Friday, September 11, 2020 at 8:59 am
    This is like Y2K

    I beg to differ – Y2K potential problem identified, huge resources thrown at issues which might occur in the future – problems basically avoided

    Now – Almost the opposite. Problem identified, Need for action on something in future considered to hard/expensive/not necessary. Problem manifests still debate (for want of a better word) over how much action is required/can be afforded. Problem continues on with no immediate end in sight.

  18. Barney

    I never said they would. I said they would affect Youtube.

    Stop trying to downplay good progress that helps Labor win elections around the country.

  19. There you go

    Alex Hart
    @alexhart7
    Told Barilaro has given in. No new date to discuss policy and coalition to remain in tact. Joint statement soon.
    9:30 AM · Sep 11, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

  20. These laws will not effect federal or State advertising.

    They won’t even affect the ACT Election next month – they begin in July 2021.

  21. Brumby was the premier who screwed over Rudd.
    The Minister for Health, who presumably had some role in the decision, was……

    Dan Andrews

  22. Zwaktyld

    I was more on the point (with some embellishment) of a degree of heightened anticipation something dramatic was going to happen at a set time.

  23. Barilaro will still have the support of Ray Hadley (until he does not) playing his country music from his property in rural north-west Sydney.

  24. What do the NSW Nats shenanigans mean for Berejiklian? We saw with federal Labor that every time there are internal ructions that boil over into a public spat, it weakens the party leader.

  25. Last tweet before I step out

    Alex Hart
    @alexhart7
    ·
    4m
    This is obviously the Libs/Govt take on the result. No doubt Nationals will have a different spin… perhaps assured there will be compromises made, but have to be patient.
    Quote Tweet

    Alex Hart
    @alexhart7
    · 10m
    Told Barilaro has given in. No new date to discuss policy and coalition to remain in tact. Joint statement soon

  26. Barney

    Nah you just don’t want other Labor governments following the ACT example.

    So you make claims I did not make and argue against them.

  27. The Rudd agenda was impressive. Setting up local health districts under board governance was to be the first step in getting to the gold standard of health economics of separating the purchaser (i.e the government) from the provider (the hospitals).
    Unfortunately, like most things Rudd, it has not achieved its potential but in NSW still works well. There is no longer a Department of Health but a Ministry which provides a budget and service targets for each of 16 LHDs and lets them get on with the job. Within the ministry there are 4 pillars to support the LHDs in things like education, quality, research and governance

  28. ”I beg to differ – Y2K potential problem identified, huge resources thrown at issues which might occur in the future – problems basically avoided“

    True. Y2K was somewhat overhyped but there were many defects that had to be fixed before the big odometer in the sky ticked over. Adding one year to 5/5/99 gives 5/5/2000, not 5/5/1900, that sort of thing.

    A couple of bugs got through but they were quickly fixed. I recall once instance where a print program thought that its inputs were 100 years old and deleted them instead of printing them.

  29. I was saying to some others last night, that Doctors have found out, what they believe after 40 years, in x-rays confirm that the NSW Nationals do have a back bone. Got some chuckles to that and I then added, it will be confirmed tomorrow that this was erroneous and it was just some cartilage.

    Well that was fun while it lasted.

  30. Bucephalus:

    Friday, September 11, 2020 at 9:18 am

    [‘…Andrews’… avoidance of answering questions…’]

    I can’t recall a pollie coming within a bull’s roar of Andrews for answering media questions. He’s out every day for around 1 hour, sometimes longer, answering every question put to him save for those that are deliberately provocative. I think you’re confusing him with your man Morrison. You know, the guy who says repetitively, “I don’t accept the premise of your question”; and then does an exit, stage Right.

  31. The Guardian are calling at clear victory for Gladys.

    A joint statement is coming out, but Gladys Berejiklian has not blinked and John Barilaro has backed down.

    He lost. And now has to fight for his own leadership.

    The Nationals will stay where they are until the next election, and support government policies.

  32. guytaur @ #134 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 7:46 am

    Barney

    Nah you just don’t want other Labor governments following the ACT example.

    :lol 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 :lol 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 :lol 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 :lol 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

    I actually love the idea, but the problem is how you implement and enforce it.

    The ACT legislation seems great in name, but ultimately weak in the effect it will have, even inside the ACT.

  33. Heads rolling at Rio Tinto over the cave destruction in the Pilbara.

    PatriciaKarvelas
    @PatsKarvelas
    RIO Chris Salisbury will step down as Chief Executive, Iron Ore with immediate effect
    Simone Niven will step down as Group Executive, Corporate Relations, and will leave the Group on 31 December 2020 after completing s transition of her responsibilities. #RioTinto #auspol
    9:43 AM · Sep 11, 2020

  34. Greensborough Growler says:
    Friday, September 11, 2020 at 9:56 am
    The Guardian are calling at clear victory for Gladys.

    A joint statement is coming out, but Gladys Berejiklian has not blinked and John Barilaro has backed down.

    —————————-

    Dont know how it is a victory , it shows Gladys Berejiklian is not confident of the liberal party winning government with out the national party

  35. Greensborough Growler @ #136 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 9:56 am

    The Guardian are calling at clear victory for Gladys.

    A joint statement is coming out, but Gladys Berejiklian has not blinked and John Barilaro has backed down.

    He lost. And now has to fight for his own leadership.

    The Nationals will stay where they are until the next election, and support government policies.

    ‘Gladys Berejiklian has not blinked’
    Another lesson for fed. Labor.
    Of course the same lesson Andrews is giving every day.

  36. Barney

    It’s quite simple. Massive penalties on the campaigns found to be lying and the companies allowing the advertising.
    It won’t happen overnight. However eventually the lying will stop as the bottom line in the balance sheet suffers.

  37. Mavis @ #135 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 9:56 am

    Bucephalus:

    Friday, September 11, 2020 at 9:18 am

    [‘…Andrews’… avoidance of answering questions…’]

    I can’t recall a pollie coming within a bull’s roar of Andrews for answering media questions. He’s out every day for around 1 hour, sometimes longer, answering every question put to him save for those that are deliberately provocative. I think you’re confusing him with your man Morrison. You know, the guy who says repetitively, “I don’t accept the premise of your question”; and then does an exit, stage Right.

    ‘I can’t recall a pollie coming within a bull’s roar of Andrews for answering media questions.’
    JG did a pretty good job.

  38. So in the last hour:

    NSW leader Nationals leader John Barilaro has completely backed down from his treat to withdraw Nationals support for government policy

    Rio Tinto executives have stepped down in the wake of the Juukan Gorge destruction scandal and shareholder anger

    Melbourne Covid case numbers have dropped below 50 (although nine deaths are tragic)

    The Queensland premier has stood by not intervening in decisions made by her her chief health officer

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