Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:
• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.
• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694.
• Labor-linked firm Redbridge Group has published polling from three Labor-held federal seats, which collectively suggest Labor has gone backwards since last year’s election. Including results for a follow-up prompt for the initially undecided, and applying preference flows from the last election, I estimate the two-party results at 54-46 to the LNP in Lilley, where Labor’s margin is 0.6%; 54.7-45.3 to Liberal in Hunter, where the margin is 3.0%; but 53-47 to Labor in Corangamite, improving on their existing 1.1% margin. Whereas One Nation came close to making the final two-party preference count in Hunter last year, this poll has them a distant third with 9.5%. The poll also presented respondents in Hunter with Liberal as the Coalition response option, whereas the seat was contested by the Nationals at the election. The poll was conducted from August 20-22 from samples of 1000 to 1200 per electorate. Pollster Kos Samaras notes on Twitter that their state-level polling is “not reporting the same trends”, and suggests the firm will publish polling over the coming days casting doubt over the aforementioned MediaReach findings from Victoria.
• The West Australian published further results on Monday from last week’s Painted Dog Research poll, which credited Mark McGowan with a 91% approval rating, this time on Liberal leader Liza Harvey. Harvey was found to have an approval rating of just 10%, down nine since June, with disapproval unchanged at 37%. The balance included 36% neither satisifed nor dissatisfied and 10% for don’t know – I’m not sure where that leaves the 7% balance. The poll was conducted last week from a sample of 837.
• I took part in a podcast this week with Ben Raue at The Tally Room, together with former Australian Electoral Commission official Michael Maley, in which a highly wonk-ish discussion was had about electoral redistributions.
I worry for Victoria. If the attacks by conservatives (news and LNP) are effective and the Victorian public lose faith in Dan Andrews, the effect will be to drive up both depression and disobedience. Do they realize what they’re doing? Is that what they want?
Silly question. They don’t give a stuff as long as they have a ‘political’ win. Same as Morrison.
Ouch.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/i-used-think-gop-should-be-saved/616189/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Thanks BK for today’s Dawn Patrol.
What happened with your projected hospital visit ❓ I did my part and spend a couple of night is the local Mater Hospital where the nurses were very pleased to tell me how bossy they are. Naturally I responded that that’s how I love my women. Yes I now its silly but what are ya gonna do when you’re the one with no clothes and the ladies have gone blind (apparently) and pretend they can’t work out what the heck with the old saggy, scraggy, wrinkled wreck being assisted.
Bossy is wonderful, malicious not so but may, of late, be restricted to politicians. ☕
The really good news for me is that the Senior, Executive, Managing Director daughter wants to know why I don’t go out much (I have told her repeatedly) because there’s no virus in Newcastle and ………….so on.
P.S. I like koalas, not too hot on politicians of just about any persuasion. More ☕
Fess
The GOP has become the party of Trump.
Hillary Clinton was right when she referenced the deplorables.
That is what the GOP are made up of.
izzie says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 8:24 am
I worry for Victoria. If the attacks by conservatives (news and LNP) are effective and the Victorian public lose faith in Dan Andrews, the effect will be to drive up both depression and disobedience. Do they realize what they’re doing? Is that what they want?
Silly question. They don’t give a stuff as long as they have a ‘political’ win. Same as Morrison
——————————-
It will just prove Australians are not as smart as they make themselves out to be
Australians will be the most gullible in the world to the corrupt foreign own and controlled libs/nats
and the thing what will be the most annoyin is , if the borders were to be open
the same people who support the corrupt foreign owned and controlled libs/nats will be the first to complain ,when the corona virus spreads
So well said.
It sickens me to read some of the truly disgraceful replies to Senator Thorpe’s tweets. So much racism in just one little Twitter thread. Uhhg. The far-right are truly vile.
Good Morning
Federal Labor has gone backwards in the polls.
So much for fighting with the Greens being good for Labor.
If Labor fought with the LNP maybe they would go up in the polls.
It’s bad enough to be fighting Newscorpse and the LNP.
I just don’t get why Labor loves to be wedged. We know triangulation and appealing to the right of the LNP base loses Labor elections.
At least Labor understands how toxic it is to be known as Koala Killers.
As BB pointed out Friendly Jordies has had a good impact here.
Learn the lesson Labor. I suspect many have going on Victoria.
Interesting contrast in polling.
However I suspect the LNP are fooling themselves with their internal polling release of their best results.
I do wonder how many actual farmers support Barillaro’s stand against koala protection.
I see Brigit Mackenzie stoically defending him with the opening line “he’s just standing up for what his constituents want”.
Republicans back Trump despite reports he called soldiers ‘suckers’ and ‘losers’: Reuters/Ipsos poll
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Half of Americans believe media reports that President Donald Trump referred to U.S. soldiers as “suckers” and “losers,” despite his denials, but the alleged comments do not appear to have hurt his standing among Republicans, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.
The national public opinion poll, released Thursday, found that 50% of U.S. adults said they found the reports to be credible, while 37% said they did not and 13% said they were not sure.
Yet most Republicans still hold favorable views of Trump, and a majority of Republicans say the recent news has not influenced their choice for president.
Trump has denounced multiple news reports that he repeatedly disparaged American servicemen, including a report in The Atlantic magazine that he had once called dead U.S. marines “suckers” for getting killed, and that a cemetery of fallen American servicemen in Europe was filled with “losers.”
The poll shows that while public disapproval of Trump has increased slightly over the past week, it is mostly unchanged among Republicans.
Republicans have unflinchingly backed Trump since before he won the White House, with little variation in their approval of him during events including his impeachment in the U.S. House of Representatives.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-poll/republicans-back-trump-despite-reports-he-called-soldiers-suckers-and-losers-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN2612NX
Vic:
What’s astounding is that they’re making no effort to attract a wider vote share. Only trying to scare people into NOT voting. That might work this election but it isn’t sustainable.
You can definitely see where the ‘burn it all down’ ex-GOPers are coming from.
The problem with a building boom is that it leaves those workers most adversely affected by COVID out (I suppose there’s ‘trickle down’).
The construction industry hasn’t been badly hit by COVID (when I was driving to work at the height of the lockdown, the majority of those sharing the empty roads with me were tradies).
Hospitality and retail are where the bulk of job losses have occured. Building houses won’t help those industries recover, and very few former employees of either are going to find themselves wielding a hammer.
43 Cases of C-19 in Victoria, 81 same time last week.
43 is in the 30-50 range.
Kids, looks like you’re going to school next month!!!
lizzie @ #40 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 6:17 am
The last time something like this was posted, the evidence didn’t match the comment.
KayJay
I’m heading off for an X-ray scheduled for noon. I reckon it will be OK – but I’m still not good.
Fess
My view is that covid is the biggest game in town. Now that there are actual recordings from none other than Bob Woodward (you cant make this shit up), where Trump admits to knowing how dangerous the virus was.
The catchcry ought to be that Trump lied and thousands of people died.
Alpha zero
Yay
BK
All the best.
Zoomster
Don’t forget the huge hits to education.
There is good reason some academics deemed the current education union not radical enough.
Even Newscorp “hack” Professor Peter Van Onselen acknowledges that.
Time for Labor to go back to free education.
Hard for the party that introduced HECS but it is a barrier to funding being used with glee by the neo liberal LNP. That’s just universities.
Add to that all the shutdowns and kids staying home that’s a lot of education being hard hit.
Almost every morning commercial FM radio news in Canberra has led with Morrison’s utterances. Today was no exception with him ranting about “humanity” and “empathy”
(taken from his appearance on Murdoch’s Sky last night).
This news also failed to mention the koala war, despite Barilaro’s seat of Monaro being largely within the listening area of Canberra radio stations.
BK
I hope you are right.
I hope you feel your usual self again soon.
Jobkeeper and jobseeker are going to be reduced within a few weeks.
Morrison is doing a great job of distraction at present.
Where is team Labor on this?
It is clear as day the corruption by the corrupt foreign owned media is controlling and feeding the political agenda to the libs/nats at federal / state/territory levels and people are still have not woken up to it
Barney
Apparently the viewer figures for Insiders are genuinely falling off.
Vale Diana Rigg; loved her in “The Avengers”.
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/from-avengers-to-got-via-bond-british-actor-diana-rigg-dies-aged-82-20200910-p55ujp.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCRUEf8Xa-s
Victoria
Mr Albanese gave a good speech on manufacturing trains in Australia not importing them.
He and his shadow ministers have talked about JobSeeker and JobKeeper
We even had Chris Richardson of Access Economics argue against those cuts at the National Press Club.
I want Labor to do cut through and be bold and strong. I don’t expect miracles. The Greens are doing the same too. Welcome to the Greens world of media not reporting on Labor as the Greens have been experiencing for years.
… Like a group of ciphers at a meeting of SPECTRE, they nodded at whatever Number One told them to do, each of them fearing an extended pinkie finger pressing the button that would electrocute them into political oblivion.
Doesn’t the button open a trap door beneath their seat so they drop into a furnace or a shark tank?
Guytaur
I saw the NPC and what Chris Richardson said.
That’s as far as that message went. I haven’t seen it being reported in other media.
BK @ #63 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 8:42 am
I am muy simpatico. Hope for the best and rely on professionals. I lay awake Tuesday night thinking of Mr. Whitlam and Mr. Hawke and being thankful for Medicare.
Best wishes.
Notice how no one in the media has called out Morrison or Dutton contradictions and hypocrisy on
1- Not allowing family/people to see those who are dying / sick/ separated
2- Border restrictions
Lizzie
I used to watch David speers on sky. Believe it or not. He was better there than he is now on the ABC.
Not saying that sky news is good at all. I stopped watching it a very long time ago.
Occasionally pop over for a few minutes to see how bad it is. It gives fox news a run for its money.
It’s that bad.
U.S. Ends Airport Covid Screening of International Arrivals
The U.S. government is ending Covid-19 screening of international travelers arriving at airports as airlines seek new ways to more aggressively test for the virus to boost anemic traffic.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it is ending its program that directed all flights from high-risk areas to 15 U.S. airports. The system was deemed ineffective because so many people who transmit the disease don’t show symptoms, the CDC said.
The government will now focus more on voluntary measures, such as educating passengers and requesting contact information electronically. The health screening will end on Sept. 14.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-10/u-s-ends-airport-covid-19-screening-of-international-arrivals?srnd=premium-asia
sprocket_ @ #37 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 8:12 am
Well he is a former Tourism Australia guy.
This is like Y2K
Victoria
Yes. Now you won’t.
It will go the way on reporting a UBI except of course Labor will get a word in at Budget time. Too late for pressure to stop the idealogical cuts by Mr Reagan Fanboy Frydenberg.
The silver lining is like the pandemic all the misery will create a huge bunch of socialists in the country long term.
The GFC did that in the USA
C@t
The cases in Europe are increasing rapidly.
Winter is coming
Gulp.
Hey NSW Nationals. It’s Time!
guytaur says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 8:54 am
Welcome to the Greens world of media not reporting on Labor as the Greens have been experiencing for years.
————————
The greens , tony Windsor and Rob Oakshott could have let Labor’s media reforms passed before the 2013 federal election instead of defending the media
Time for Labor to go back to free education.
Hard for the party that introduced HECS but it is a barrier to funding being used with glee by the neo liberal LNP. That’s just universities.
The original Hecs was a modest user-pays contribution to the cost of degrees. The Howard Government greatly ratcheted it up, as has the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Government, to the extent that degrees are far more costly in real terms that they were pre-Whitlam. We know the Coalition want to do much more in this regard – remember the defeated 2014 Budget “reforms”.
At this stage “free” would have to be a longer term aspiration. However, Labor can promise to make a start on reversing the damage done.
Guytaur
The US is in the midst of an existential crisis.
They are dealing with a pandemic that is not under control.
They are dealing with a narcissistic deviant president who has deliberately lied to the people about the pandemic.
Race relations are being used by him as a law and order issue.
And the west coast is in the midst of an unprecedented fire season.
Its cray cray
These are latest tweets I have seen on the NSW shit show
Hearing Nats are going to try to take options to Gladys and force her hand… not 100% backing down. Want to test Premier by suggesting she was not willing to compromise… #nswpol
Alex Hart Retweeted
James O’Doherty
@jmodoh
·
21m
Meanwhile Treasurer Dominic Perrottet says the SEPP”certainly need to be looked at”.
“It’s pretty clear that there might be some challenges with this (policy).”
He told 2GB the issues should be worked through “behind closed doors with cabinet solidarity, not through the media.”
Alex Hart
@alexhart7
·
29m
Minister
@AndrewConstance
doesn’t hold back. Three times refusing to say if he’d be comfortable working with Nats Ministers in Cabinet in future. Also would not endorse
@JohnBarilaroMP
, says leadership a matter for him. Furious about getting criticised in a Robocall last night.
Scott
I would agree except changes are happening.
The ACT has already put law in place about Truth in political advertising.
That’s going to have a huge impact on the ignorant voters around the country. Youtube will not have Clive Palmer advertising or breach ACT law.
Labor will get another go. Especially after it gets a Federal ICAC with teeth through.
My advice. Look to Canada. Use those laws. I think the Greens and other cross bench Senators will agree their media laws have not restricted free speech in Canada. Thus they will vote for it.
lizzie @ #38 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 8:13 am
Whatever happened to the common weal? When did we descend into a party’s constituents being able to direct what the rest of us get?
The abc partisanship deal for the liberal/nationals was done in 2010 , people should not shed a tear for the ABC .
Waleed Aly nails it:
Victoria entered this pandemic with the least-resourced public health operation in the country (per capita), thanks to successive governments’ budget decisions. It was understaffed, had outdated IT systems, and found itself with little choice but to recruit inexperienced people who would inevitably make mistakes.
It also had a centralised public health system, unlike in New South Wales and Queensland where public health is managed by local teams in designated “health districts” who do things like contact tracing. That means they have more local knowledge and can act more swiftly to trace local outbreaks. Victoria is paying the price for what, in another era, would have been called “efficiency”.
What he doesn’t address is why Victoria was the only jurisdiction to reject the Rudd reform of viable Local Health Districts
Victoria
Yes and we are not far behind them.
Qanon influence at Prime Ministerial level is a serious question to ask.
I can’t see Barilaro surviving this – his head on a pike should be the price of readmission to cabinet for the naughty NATs.
Victoria @ #89 Friday, September 11th, 2020 – 9:06 am
Sounds like it’s splitting the Libs too.
guytaur says:
Friday, September 11, 2020 at 9:09 am
I would agree except changes are happening.
The ACT has already put law in place about Truth in political advertising.
That’s going to have a huge impact on the ignorant voters around the country. Youtube will not have Clive Palmer advertising or breach ACT law.
Labor will get another go. Especially after it gets a Federal ICAC with teeth through.
———————
I would hope so , but i fear under the current labor leadership it may not happen
A conspiracy theorist would be prone to thinking the appointment of an ex-Sky “journalist” as the host of the ABC’s flagship political program was designed to kill it off.
Something like that occurred to me 20 years ago regarding the appointment of Jonathan Shier as Managing Director of the ABC. We know that the Coalition intends to destroy the ABC as we know it as soon as politics allows, in the meantime nobbling it as much as they can.
Regarding Insiders, I’ve rarely watched since Barry Cassidy left. I bailed after the 2019 election and the little I’ve seen since has to say the least failed to entice me back.