More affairs of state

More evidence of a tight contest looming in Queensland while Mark McGowan reigns supreme in Western Australia; and a parliamentary committee in Victoria kicks the upper house electoral reform can down the road.

Not every state this time, but half:

Victoria

The Victorian parliament’s electoral matters committee has tabled the report of its inquiry into the 2018 state election, of which the greatest item of interest is a full chapter devoted to reform of the upper house electoral system. Together with Western Australia, Victoria is the last hold-out of the group voting ticket system that is electing ever-increasing numbers of preference-harvesting micro-party candidates. This reached a new height at the 2018 election, at which parties other than the Coalition, Labor and the Greens won 10 out of the 40 seats in the Legislative Council, including two elected with less than 1% of the vote. However, the report recommended only that a further parliamentary inquiry be held into the matter. The report also recommends no change to the two-week period for pre-polling, which the Liberals and Nationals called to be shortened.

Queensland

Polling of the marginal state seats of Currumbin, Mansfield and Aspley by YouGov for the Australian Conservation Foundation shows a combined two-party result of 52-48 for Labor, compared with an almost exact 50-50 for these three seats in 2017. The primary votes are Labor 37%, LNP 37%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4% and 10% don’t know, compared with 2017 election results of Labor 41.2%, LNP 38.4%, Greens 10.6% and One Nation 8.5%. The poll was conducted from August 17-19 and targeted 200 respondents in each of the three electorates.

Western Australia

A poll for The West Australian by Painted Dog Research showed Mark McGowan with an approval rating at 91%, up four from an already stratospheric result in June. Support for the state’s border closure was at 92%, up from 89% in May. The poll was conducted from a sample of 837, with field work dates not provided.

Northern Territory

As related in the dedicated post, the CLP sneaked home in an eighth seat in the Northern Territory election as the count concluded last night, producing a final result of Labor 14, CLP eight, Territory Alliance one and independents two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,560 comments on “More affairs of state”

Comments Page 5 of 32
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  1. C@

    Looks like ‘The Herald Sun’ is using zoom lenses to ‘create a crowd’ again.

    Last time they did that was to create a beat up story about ‘crowds’ defying social distancing at the beach, which was a Bad Thing.

    Now it’s to create a beat up story about ‘crowds’ protesting against Dictator Dan, which I’m sure they’ll portray as a Good Thing.

  2. Beemer

    I did not see Firefox claiming a Universal Basic Income would end elitism.

    I argued it would end stigmatising certain people in society.
    However that’s a different thing.

  3. zoomster

    Reports on numbers certainly vary according to bias!

    This report from AAP on the protests in Melbourne:

    Unmasked anti-lockdown protesters have been arrested by police during violent scuffles in Melbourne.

    Officers were punched by one man at the city’s Shrine of Remembrance on Saturday before being fitted with a mask and handcuffs.

    He was one of more than 20 people arrested at the scene, an AAP photographer reported.

    Up to 300 people gathered at the shrine where the mood was described as tense.

    Police on horses pushed the mob towards the shrine’s steps, before protesters started to disperse. Some of the group carried placards with anti-government sentiments and at one stage were singing the Australian anthem.

  4. Yes, guytaur.

    We should raise the rate of whatever it is the payment people get when they’re not working.

    We should also get rid of a lot – and in some cases, all – of the requirements of getting such a payment.

    For example, nursing mothers, at home parents, addicts (including alcoholics), those with mental health problems, should get reasonable support without many strings attached.

    Aspiring artists/actors/musicians etc also, although perhaps there should be a time limit on that (if you haven’t established yourself in your chosen field after a certain period of time?)

    That isn’t necessarily the same as a UBI.

  5. Mexicanbeemer @ #196 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 11:10 am

    Reading this mornings debate between Firefox and Zoomster tells me that Firefox is basically targeting the wrong solution to the problem because in practicably every society in recorded history there has been an elite.

    Australia isn’t anywhere near as unequal has Firefox suggests thanks to a number of well designed institutions and public policies from our universities to compulsory superannuation.

    The secret to improving Australia is to focus on those that are disadvantaged because as the first productivity commission report into the NDIS did an outstanding job of nailing the barriers faced by disabled people. That is where the inequality is created so fix that.

    We might not be as bad as the US, but that we have everything under control, particularly with Unis the PM is literally tearing apart in front of us, and NDIS that has largely been turned into a profit funnel for mates, the ‘everything’ is fine is a very pre-Howard view of where Australia is actually at. And suggests the view is not coming from just a bit of privilege, but a mountain of it.

  6. Emma O’Sullivan
    @emma_os
    ·
    1m
    Well that’s one way to be socially distant…

    ***
    Kristina Costalos
    @kcostalos
    · 11m
    A Melbourne protester has just jumped into Albert Park Lake…
    He’s yelling “Freedom. Freedom.”
    Police watch on.
    @10NewsFirst

  9. Guytaur
    Firefox commented that capitalism only benefits a small elite which is not the Australian experience at all because Australia’s main inequality issue is between people with professional qualifications or trade skills versus people without formal qualifications. You can start to get ahead in Australia fairly easily once you are in stable employment.

  10. A despairing day in Melbourne with emotionally challenged citizens potentially setting every other Victorian up for prolonged lockdowns. A vicious circle.

  12. Zoomster

    I have used the words people might get the idea of extending it to make it universal.

    That’s why Morrison is using terms like JobKeeper.

    With that article I deliberately did not put my words there.
    It was of course about Jobseeker.

    Edit: To be clear it’s not universal if Kerry Packer Kerry Stokes and other wealthy people don’t get it.

  13. The Cohen guy in this zoom is supposed to be a professor from RMIT teaching in the health sciences. If he is for real, RMIT should seriously should reconsider his position.
    What a cray cray idiot.
    I’ve a mind to contact RMIT first thing Monday morning to clarify this.

    Cohen and Stone are saying that Covid-19 is a hoax to get our DNA so that they can use 5G to kill you remotely. Waiting for Meryl Dorey, the serious anti-vaccination activist to object. Any second now, I’m sure.
    11:46 PM · Sep 4, 2020·Twitter Web App

    https://mobile.twitter.com/sexenheimer/status/1301877747925483522

  14. Beemer

    No. I saw Firefox arguing that raising the income of people at the poorest levels of society decreases inequality.

    FredNK suggested public housing and free education should be higher priorities.

    So I think it’s your understanding of the argument that’s flawed.

  16. Here Guytaur

    Firefox says:
    Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 6:36 am
    Why should people be forced to slave away in a system that is designed to benefit the few at the expense of the many? Why are the most vulnerable in society always the targets, rather than all the huge corporations who refuse to pay their fair share of tax? Capitalism has failed all but the rich elite. So yes, since the establishment imposes their failed and structurally unfair system upon people against their will, it is their responsibility to ensure that everyone who lives under their system has a decent quality of life. UBIs are just common sense, especially as we continue to move into a world where more and more jobs are being done by machines and AI.

  18. Beemer

    Arguing for UBI which includes the wealthy is not arguing for the end of the wealthy elite.

    You are arguing for a basement floor of income for all. That’s it.
    You are arguing everyone gains security and certainty

  20. Beemer

    Nothing in that post says eliminate the elite.

    Saying eliminate slave working conditions for example says nothing about eliminating the elite.

  22. zoomster @ #199 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 1:13 pm

    C@

    Looks like ‘The Herald Sun’ is using zoom lenses to ‘create a crowd’ again.

    Last time they did that was to create a beat up story about ‘crowds’ defying social distancing at the beach, which was a Bad Thing.

    Now it’s to create a beat up story about ‘crowds’ protesting against Dictator Dan, which I’m sure they’ll portray as a Good Thing.

    There is a corollary to that with the number of people from the protest side also recording what is going on and so there would be evidence at variance with what the Herald Sun is promulgating. Thankfully.

    However, you would also have to take into consideration the fact that these people are on the side of the Herald Sun in a way because they both want to smash ‘Dictator Dan’ and his lockdown.

    Nevertheless, I’m sure the police will have their own numbers, more realistically assessed and reliable.

  23. Danama Papers,
    So they don’t get recognised by CCTV.

    I’d say there’s more than one or two who don’t believe the virus is a ‘hoax’ and don’t want to catch it.

  24. Beemer

    Sorry my bad.

    The argument about benefiting a small elite is true.
    Just not that’s the only argument Firefox is making.
    The same can be said of Monarchy.

    Firefox was clear about reducing how much benefit goes to the rich and my previous post about an income floor and certainty still applies.

  25. C@tmommasays: Saturday, September 5, 2020 at 1:35 pm

    However, you would also have to take into consideration the fact that these people are on the side of the Herald Sun in a way because they both want to smash ‘Dictator Dan’ and his lockdown.

    *******************************************************

    Talking about ‘Dictator Dan’ – just reading an article in which Rebecca Judd used that in a tweet – and gets blasted :

    Rebecca Judd slammed for tone deaf ‘Dictator Dan’ Instagram comment

    Rebecca Judd has been dubbed “the new Karen from Brighton” after whinging about lockdown from the comfort of her $7.3 million mansion.

    In a since-deleted video, the radio host, who is married to ex-Eagles and Blues AFL star Chris Judd, took a swipe at Premier Daniel Andrews while plugging a product for her children from the comfort of her $7.3 million home.

    “ … It seems Dictator Dan will be locking Victorians in our homes even longer,” she captioned the video showcasing a cubby house from The Little Cardboard Co.

    The mum-of-four, 37, swiftly removed the post, but it was quick to attract criticism from Melburnians who called her “tone deaf” for complaining despite her luxurious lifestyle.

    Kirsty Webeck @KirstyWebeck

    Thoughts and prayers to Bec Judd who’s holed up in a $7m shoebox in Brighton.

    Let her out, Dictator Dan. One can only spend so much time in their MagnaPool and spa.

    https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/rebecca-judd-slammed-for-tone-deaf-dictator-dan-instagram-comment/news-story/6be27db42f3e89b0aebae7e563fa370d

  27. Cameron Emerson {nobody special}
    @noremaco
    ·
    15m
    My mental health has been shaky recently, but I’ve been conscious of the finish line drawing closer and closer.
    Seeing these fuckheads protest and push that line backwards is devastating. I am completely livid.
    #melbourneprotest

  28. Despite the West newspaper scoring a win for both Morrison and McGowan on yesterday’s border decision, the cat was out of the bag on local jock radio, 6PR when they bemoaned that “Morrison has given in………”
    Odd how Morrison cannot seem to shift the LNP TPP vote much beyond 50 for any length of time…………………clearly the electorate is rewarding Morrison for seeming to be able to cope, but it seems the LNP – even before the full impact of the recession bites -are no sure thing at all…….

  29. Oh, please, please Boris, keep Abbott in the UK………..for ever……….give him a bloody knighthood if you must…………… He is so twisted he does not seem to know whether he is English, Australian or something else………………..Urban myth was that when it was announced on a flight between Perth and Melbourne by the pilot that Abbott had been junked, the whole plane cheered………

  30. The protest is completely politically driven under the pretense of the pandemic & lockdown.
    It’s about creating the perception of chaos around a popular Labor premier.

  33. If you want to be appalled about hypocrisy listen to the latest Guardian podcast with Katherine Murphy.

    Tim Wilson arguing prices of houses are overvalued and government has to act to correct it.

  35. I don’t think it is impossible to have a universal income and at the same time have people decide they will accept the income but not cooperate in the economic society that currently rules our lives.

    Each person has their own moral compass and refusing to work for companies that disproportionately benefit the elite may be a choice some wish to make. They may also find the moral imperative to have a low carbon footprint or to commune with nature as being morally more acceptable. If at the same time an ethical shift occurs in our society and providing income for all becomes the norm then the two positions are able to coexist.

    If I could effect any change in society it would be a change that meant that the lower paid were rewarded more for their labour and that corporate greed was minimised. Acknowledgement from the government and society that huge costs are worn by society in meeting the needs of the young, old and disabled and paid accordingly would also in my mind represent a more ethical society. In our current society money trumps all, an ethical society would say this is unfair and work to correct it. The whole world of influencers is to my mind morally repugnant when an aged care or Childcare worker get so littler enumeration or respect. An ethical society would see the increase of the former at the expense of the latter as unfair.

    I found the whole preceding discussion interesting but confusing because it is the moral make up of the people in society that drives the ethics of said society. At the moment I see a continuing trend towards people morals being based on how they are effected personally and not a lot community based. That our society, run increasingly by Christians is becoming less Christian in acts such as belittling the poor and lauding the rich at both a personal and corporate level is disturbing.

  36. Danama Papers @ #230 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 2:06 pm

    C@tmomma @ #221 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 11:39 am

    Danama Papers,
    So they don’t get recognised by CCTV.

    I’d say there’s more than one or two who don’t believe the virus is a ‘hoax’ and don’t want to catch it.

    Then why the fvck would they attend a super spreader event?

    Anyone with even a sub-moron level of intelligence….

    …. oh, wait. These people read The Herald Sun. Carry on. As you were.

    In all seriousness, there were probably people there attending for a variety of reasons. Some may have been there to show their support for #SavetheChildren, others because they believe the virus is a ‘hoax’ and yet others who may believe all of the state government’s actions are an elaborate construct to gain control over them via their State of Emergency. Then there’s pregnant Ballarat Karen, who seemed to know at one level what she was posting on facebook was wrong when she immediately offered to the police to take the post in support of ‘Freedom Day’ down. Was she just joining in the fun for the sake of helping to create chaos while bored at home with the lockdown? I don’t the hell know! 😆

  37. Queen Victoria
    @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    4m
    The people who organised Victorian anti-lockdown protest seem to be same who spread disinformation during bushfire crisis, blaming arson to deflect from climate change. When are we going to start calling these people terrorists – organised crime with a political agenda?

  39. The problem police have is they went soft on the BLM rally and now they look hypocritical when both rallies should have been shut down or after being held its leaders fined. The left should have been smart enough to know the righties would throw BLM back at them.

  42. Victoria
    It was held during earlier restrictions but more importantly its leaders were treated differently than what we are seeing here not that this protest deserves any support.

  43. I know we’ve lost count of the number of ‘Imagine If Obama Said/Did’ alternative scenarios, but here’s another one. Imagine if Obama said troops killed in combat were losers or suckers.

    When President Donald Trump canceled a visit to the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery near Paris in 2018, he blamed rain for the last-minute decision, saying that “the helicopter couldn’t fly” and that the Secret Service wouldn’t drive him there. Neither claim was true.

    Trump rejected the idea of the visit because he feared his hair would become disheveled in the rain, and because he did not believe it important to honor American war dead, according to four people with firsthand knowledge of the discussion that day. In a conversation with senior staff members on the morning of the scheduled visit, Trump said, “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.” In a separate conversation on the same trip, Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood as “suckers” for getting killed.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-americans-who-died-at-war-are-losers-and-suckers/615997/

  45. Mexicanbeemer

    As I said BLM was not held under strict lockdown with a deadly second wave being fought.

    Also, what is this protest really about.
    At least BLM, was for real human rights not this selfish confected bullshit

  48. Confessions @ #241 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 3:16 pm

    I know we’ve lost count of the number of ‘Imagine If Obama Said/Did’ alternative scenarios, but here’s another one. Imagine if Obama said troops killed in combat were losers or suckers.

    When President Donald Trump canceled a visit to the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery near Paris in 2018, he blamed rain for the last-minute decision, saying that “the helicopter couldn’t fly” and that the Secret Service wouldn’t drive him there. Neither claim was true.

    Trump rejected the idea of the visit because he feared his hair would become disheveled in the rain, and because he did not believe it important to honor American war dead, according to four people with firsthand knowledge of the discussion that day. In a conversation with senior staff members on the morning of the scheduled visit, Trump said, “Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.” In a separate conversation on the same trip, Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood as “suckers” for getting killed.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-americans-who-died-at-war-are-losers-and-suckers/615997/

    Confessions, Biden’s response is worth watching. He gets emotional; it’s real, it’s potent. I posted it early this morning, but here again –

    https://youtu.be/RWumt-8RMBM

    I hope, and especially hope I don’t regret saying this, but this could be game over for Trump. The relationship between the US and its military is, as Biden says, something sacred.

  49. Fess

    These unsurprising revelations re Trump is basically letting him know his presidency is over. He has overstayed his welcome. Lol!

  50. Victoria @ #243 Saturday, September 5th, 2020 – 3:20 pm

    Mexicanbeemer

    As I said BLM was not held under strict lockdown with a deadly second wave being fought.

    Also, what is this priest really about.
    At least BLM, was for real human rights not this selfish confected bullshit

    I was against the BLM protest and I’m against this protest.

    Any protest /gathering during a pandemic is wrong.

    People need to be consistent during a pandemic.

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