More affairs of state

More evidence of a tight contest looming in Queensland while Mark McGowan reigns supreme in Western Australia; and a parliamentary committee in Victoria kicks the upper house electoral reform can down the road.

Not every state this time, but half:

Victoria

The Victorian parliament’s electoral matters committee has tabled the report of its inquiry into the 2018 state election, of which the greatest item of interest is a full chapter devoted to reform of the upper house electoral system. Together with Western Australia, Victoria is the last hold-out of the group voting ticket system that is electing ever-increasing numbers of preference-harvesting micro-party candidates. This reached a new height at the 2018 election, at which parties other than the Coalition, Labor and the Greens won 10 out of the 40 seats in the Legislative Council, including two elected with less than 1% of the vote. However, the report recommended only that a further parliamentary inquiry be held into the matter. The report also recommends no change to the two-week period for pre-polling, which the Liberals and Nationals called to be shortened.

Queensland

Polling of the marginal state seats of Currumbin, Mansfield and Aspley by YouGov for the Australian Conservation Foundation shows a combined two-party result of 52-48 for Labor, compared with an almost exact 50-50 for these three seats in 2017. The primary votes are Labor 37%, LNP 37%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4% and 10% don’t know, compared with 2017 election results of Labor 41.2%, LNP 38.4%, Greens 10.6% and One Nation 8.5%. The poll was conducted from August 17-19 and targeted 200 respondents in each of the three electorates.

Western Australia

A poll for The West Australian by Painted Dog Research showed Mark McGowan with an approval rating at 91%, up four from an already stratospheric result in June. Support for the state’s border closure was at 92%, up from 89% in May. The poll was conducted from a sample of 837, with field work dates not provided.

Northern Territory

As related in the dedicated post, the CLP sneaked home in an eighth seat in the Northern Territory election as the count concluded last night, producing a final result of Labor 14, CLP eight, Territory Alliance one and independents two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,560 comments on “More affairs of state”

Comments Page 19 of 32
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  1. In response to Chip Le Grand, The Age.

    Possum Comitatus
    @Pollytics
    ·
    9h
    Person responsible for over 6 million Victorian’s well being has looked to the most knowledgeable people and institutions available on epidemiology for controlling a pandemic. Instead, he should pay more attention to lobbyists who’ve never run anything more important than a bath.

  2. I hope this is forceful enough for mundo:

    Daniel Mookhey, NSW Labor shadow minister for finance, slammed the lack of tendering and described the web of connections between it, IVE Group and the Liberal Party as mind-boggling.

    “Icare awarding the IVE Group $18 million of work without tendering stinks,” he said.

    “No one can have any confidence in icare when it is so entwined with senior Liberal Party figures and donors.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/icare-awards-18m-in-contracts-to-firm-with-extensive-liberal-party-ties-20200906-p55stz.html

  3. lizzie @ #901 Monday, September 7th, 2020 – 7:15 am

    In response to Chip Le Grand, The Age.

    Possum Comitatus
    @Pollytics
    ·
    9h
    Person responsible for over 6 million Victorian’s well being has looked to the most knowledgeable people and institutions available on epidemiology for controlling a pandemic. Instead, he should pay more attention to lobbyists who’ve never run anything more important than a bath.

    And constantly run their mouths in the media.

  6. Michael Pascoe’s article, in combination with the icare article today just proves beyond a shadow of a dopubt how corrupt the Liberal Party is and how they use taxpayers’ money to get themselves elected again and again.

    In fact, I bet Scott Morrison has already had a creative accountant write off the cubby house he built yesterday. He wouldn’t have put his hand in his own pocket to pay for it.

  8. @GregChinery
    · 26m
    #abcbreakfast has this morning been wall to wall Dan Andrews is destroying Vic & Australia. Nothing about how he’s trying to save lives. OTOH, it’s high fives all around to the LNP with the as yet to be proved securement of vaccines that do not exist.
    Ita’s stamp is everywhere.

  13. Mike Carlton
    @MikeCarlton01
    ·
    5m
    What is this silly notion that “business leaders” must be consulted on how to defeat a pandemic ?
    It’s as silly as asking epidemiologists how to run an airline or a supermarket chain.

    The ABC is doing vox pops with small businesses. “Do you think these new restrictions will bring down the virus numbers?”

  14. And now @rnbreakfast has Innes Wilox on no doubt to rubbish hard work Vic gov doing. Dollars over worker’s health. Btw he doesn’t believe Vic gov numbers.

  15. Typical of Trumplandia, there is no grift too big or too bold to take. If Biden wins the election his administration is going to have to have a wholesale cleanout of Trump’s swamp.

    Louis DeJoy’s prolific campaign fundraising, which helped position him as a top Republican power broker in North Carolina and ultimately as head of the U.S. Postal Service, was bolstered for more than a decade by a practice that left many employees feeling pressured to make political contributions to GOP candidates — money DeJoy later reimbursed through bonuses, former employees say.

    Five people who worked for DeJoy’s former business, New Breed Logistics, say they were urged by DeJoy’s aides or by the chief executive himself to write checks and attend fundraisers at his 15,000-square-foot gated mansion beside a Greensboro, N.C., country club. There, events for Republicans running for the White House and Congress routinely fetched $100,000 or more apiece.

    Two other employees familiar with New Breed’s financial and payroll systems said DeJoy would instruct that bonus payments to staffers be boosted to help defray the cost of their contributions, an arrangement that would be unlawful.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/louis-dejoy-campaign-contributions/2020/09/06/1187bc2c-e3fe-11ea-8181-606e603bb1c4_story.html

  16. “The vaccine is coming, the vaccine is coming!”

    “Dan Andrews is destroying Australia”

    Sure, sure!

    And now for some real news…

  17. This is what the Coalition is trying to get away with under the cover of COVID. They’re regurgitating old Abbott gov policies from 2014 in an attempt to weaken the EPBC. Labor must join with the Greens and block this environmental vandalism when it comes before the Senate in October.

  18. I trust you are recovering from your cold/flu . Did you have Covid19 test ❓
    ______
    Thanks KayJay.
    Slowly feeling better – still coughing and spluttering and feeling washed out.
    I had a Covid test on Friday and had the negative result in less that 24 hours.

  19. Fess

    Trump and his fellow grifters are rotting corpses and the stench is becoming overwhelming.
    The public are becoming disgusted. It only took a whole term. Better late than never.

  20. Thanks BK. That UK Guardian link is enlightening.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/06/coronavirus-fears-uk-government-lost-control-cases-soar

    On Sunday almost 3,000 people in the UK tested positive for Covid-19, a 50% increase in a single day and the highest daily total since May
    “They’ve lost control of the virus,” said Prof Gabriel Scally, a former NHS regional director of public health for the south-west. “It’s no longer small outbreaks they can stamp on. It’s become endemic in our poorest communities and this is the result. It’s extraordinarily worrying when schools are opening and universities are going to be going back.”

    It’s the poor who suffer most when we let the virus become endemic. So why should Innes Willox care?
    Fear not- he doesn’t. Well-off business people in Victoria are more than happy to let the poor suffer so they can make money. For them, the only thing that Covid19 has changed is the type of misery they think the poor deserve, because,………. you know, ……because they’re poor.

  22. Saw a report on CNN yesterday. Georgia which is a red state has had a rough tine with covid.
    And despite businesses remaining open etc., businesses are failing. Why? Cos people are staying home and not venturing out.
    They are afraid of contracting the virus.

    It’s about time the business community accepts the reality that if covid is not managed here in Melbourne, businesses are going to fail irrespective.
    And of course, the health system would collapse.

  26. Yep. We need to end the handouts for the big end of town and stop running a protection racket for the corporate elite. The Lib/Lab estab should stop demonising the most vulnerable in society and should instead put people and the planet first ahead of profit.

  27. Over time I have mentioned fabulous, fanciful, fantabulous non existent inventions which would; implant empathy into politicians and supposed leaders; subvert moronic denial of science – and similar painful devices to keep honest ( ❓ ) the above mentioned contenders for BK’s sometime weekly awards.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/28/opinion/sunday/brain-machine-artificial-intelligence.html

    Breaker – a hex on the 😈 ABC board and management.😈

    By the late 2000s, scientists could determine what kind of thing a person might be looking at from the way the brain lit up — a human face, say, or a cat. But Dr. Gallant and his colleagues went further. They figured out how to use machine learning to decipher not just the class of thing, but which exact image a subject was viewing. (Which photo of a cat, out of three options, for instance.)

    We have all heard of “the mind as a time machine.” The implants are the beginning of ability to read a mind but also to transmit to that mind – here insert “W o o o” .

    He was also scared because the experiment showed, in a concrete way, that humanity was at the dawn of a new era, one in which our thoughts could theoretically be snatched from our heads. What was going to happen, Dr. Gallant wondered, when you could read thoughts the thinker might not even be consciously aware of, when you could see people’s memories?

    “That’s a real sobering thought that now you have to take seriously,” he told me recently.

    A wonderful article -a rough check reveals it consists of about 32,000 characters. Worth a read for the sheer brilliance of the research.

    One can only imagine what ASIO (which is not keeping tabs on Orstrayan citoyen 🙄 ) could do with a developed version of this device – why I do believe they and the AFP would, in time, be able to find their own collective arses.

    Good morning all. ☕

  28. “Except if you live in China.”

    ***

    You cannot seriously think that the Chinese gov is the only gov in the world which keeps a close eye on it’s citizens, surely? Come on!

  29. “The Lib/Lab estab should stop demonising the most vulnerable in society and should instead put people and the planet first ahead of profit.”
    Sorry Firefox but I clearly missed Albanese’s demonising of the most vulnerable. Do you have a link?

  30. Willox said

    He’s said “the fury is palpable” among the business community, and said outbreaks in aged care and health care should be handled without city and state wide lockdowns.

    The point is that the carers are also part of of community and can spread the virus.

    There are so many inconsistencies in this document it’s not funny. why can a cabinet making business be opened but a carpet manufacturing business can’t? it makes no sense. So we want some consistency, some clear timelines and some clear timeframes.

    I’m sure that if businesses produced a Covid-safe plan for their workplace (as many apparently have), it could be approved. Take the initiative instead of complaining.

  31. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK and best wishes. The flu is still a more substantial illness than we assume that we do not take seriously enough. Lots of public health people think that some elements of social distancing should be kept permanently.

    As for the news, I was amused when Xanthippe pointed out that one of the causes of small boats sinking in the Trump boat parade on Lake Travis was other larger boats driven too fast and close by other Trump supporters, and not bad weather. A group of selfish idiots made life miserable for each other.

    I see business demands to “open up Victoria” in a similar light.

  32. Makes you feel even more determined not (although you won’t have any choice eventually) to get a “smart meter” that lets Amazon spy on you. It’s all above board and nothing can go wrong. Honest, you can trust us…
    And, no doubt, you get the added benefit of using your paid for internet connection to send the info to Amazon.

    https://inqld.com.au/insights/2020/09/07/amazons-power-play-deal-gives-global-giant-access-to-your-household-secrets/

    “Both companies insist it is impossible for the data, hosted by AWS, to be linked to the accounts of customers of other arms of Amazon, such as its Prime home delivery service.”

    A single word sums up what I think of that statement: Bullshit!

  33. “It’s about time the business community accepts the reality that if covid is not managed here in Melbourne, businesses are going to fail irrespective.
    And of course, the health system would collapse.”

    ***

    100%

    The long lockdown in Vic would be really tough but the alternative is so much worse. Open everything up too early and it will just spread like… the plague, kill thousands, completely overrun the health system, and do far more damage to the economy than a managed lockdown.

  35. “Sorry Firefox but I clearly missed Albanese’s demonising of the most vulnerable. Do you have a link?”

    ***

    Sure 🙂

    Early tax cuts would be windfall to high-income earners but ‘ineffective stimulus’, report says

    Bringing forward the next phase of income tax cuts will deliver a windfall to high-income earners, with 91% of the benefits going to just 20% of taxpayers, according to the Australia Institute.

    The progressive thinktank released research on Monday that suggested the bottom half of taxpayers would gain just 4% of the revenue from the second phase of income tax cuts. The institute challenged the government and Labor to find a fairer form of stimulus.

    The Coalition’s tax cuts, which were legislated with Labor and crossbench support, will lift the upper threshold of the 32.5% tax rate from $37,000 to $45,000 and the 37% bracket from $90,000 to $120,000, replacing the low and middle income tax offset in the second phase from July 2022.

    The Australia Institute paper found that the second phase tax cuts “will only benefit 40% of taxpayers” – mostly in the top three income deciles – and a small group earning between $37,000 and $48,000. Most taxpayers (60%) would receive “no benefit”.

    Someone earning a very high income of $200,000 would receive a $2,430 a year tax cut, while a person on the median income of $60,000 gets nothing, and a minimum wage earner on $40,000 receives $110.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/07/early-tax-cuts-would-be-windfall-to-high-income-earners-but-ineffective-stimulus-report-says

  37. Thanks GG, exactly.

    On the positive side, I caught up with my (long term National Party voting) parents on the weekend, who are in an aged care home in Qld that has its own entry restrictions to protect residents from Covid risk. They acknowledged that the Qld premier was handling Covid19 well, and there was not even a suggestion of “lockdown fatigue”. Lockdown fatigue is a business driven meme.

    Given that my parents were Sir Joh supporters back in the day, this augurs well for Palszczuk’s chances. By contrast Dan Andrews was a monster; the Australian editorials had told them so.

  38. Socrates:

    That sounds like state tribalism, something that is particularly prominent in Qld and WA. I’ve seen the same thing here: Liberal voting people are thoroughly pleased with McGowan but think Dan Andrews and Victoria have failed.

  39. Victoria says: Monday, September 7, 2020 at 8:03 am
    Trump and his fellow grifters are rotting corpses and the stench is becoming overwhelming.

    You change “Trump” to “Scotty” and it’s just as apt and a pretty well spot on description of the LNP.

  41. Virginia Trioli – Victoria has recorded 41 new cases of coronavirus, it’s lowest daily increase since late June 28. The state also recorded nine new deaths overnight.

  43. Confessions

    Yes, State tribalism combined with an over 80 demographic that have been getting all their news from the Australian and Fox for 30 years. When I asked my parents they were unaware who Richard Colbeck was.

  45. Fess

    Disturbing but not surprising whatsoever.
    Remember Trump and Melania were the first cabs off the rank with the birther saga against Obama.

  46. Finally a blast from the past that is relevant to the present. Various gas interests and their Liberal party minders have been advocating taxpayer “investment” in the gas industry, and simultaneously nobling environment Acts. This story highlights why. Recent gas industry expansions in Australia have been disastrous failures both economically (they can’t sell the stuff) and in terms of the false engineering claims about their emissions. The Gorgon plant in WA is in breach of its approval conditions, and should be fined heavily. It emits as much CO2 equivalent as the entire airline industry when it was still flying.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/gorgon-s-carbon-debt-could-be-greater-than-domestic-airline-industry-s-yearly-emissions-think-tank-20200603-p54z65.html?fbclid=IwAR1ic6Kzjg3TxwZ6AA6kbYUSLSNwRTbfjmt6abb5KPahaedmY_pWykLPZ6I

    Have a good day all.

  47. Thanks Firefox
    Tax Cuts.
    Yes, I’ve read that.
    But it doesn’t tell me how Labor is demonising the most vulnerable.
    I also recall the circumstances surrounding that tax cut legislation. Had Labor not passed the package they would have most certainly been demonised.

  48. PhoenixRed

    Any idea yet as to the number of tests?

    I’ve printed off a copy of the roadmap, and from what I have understood, when we reach 5 per day over a 14 day period, we will reach the third step on 26th October.
    If we manage this earlier, than the steps are brought forward.

  49. Kronomex

    But Scotty is dad of the year. Did you see the cubby he built for his daughters?

    Actually every time I think of it, I laugh hysterically. Seriously who are they bloody kidding.

  50. Just remember that there is a consistently lower than trend figure reported on Mondays based on weekend testing and analysis. But the trend is good.

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