Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August

A still greater Coalition lead in Queensland underwrites its modest ascendancy in Newspoll over recent months, according to newly published breakdowns.

The Australian today brings us the latest set of breakdowns from three months’ accumulation of Newspoll results, and the second to be published since its ambit was extended beyond state, age and gender to education, income, language and religion. Highlights:

• Labor is credited with a lead of 51-49 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 in the April-June quarter and 51.8-48.2 to the Coalition at the election, and its lead in Victoria is out to 56-44, compared with 55-45 and 53.1-46.9. Once again though, Queensland is Labor’s sticking point, with the Coalition lead recorded at 59-41, compared with 56-44 last quarter and 58.4-41.6 at the election. The Coalition leads 54-46 in Western Australia, compared with 55-45 last quarter and 55.6-44.4 at the election, and is now at level pegging in South Australia, compared with 53-47 to Labor last poll and 50.7-49.3 to Labor at the election.

• The Coalition leads 53-47 among men and trails 51-49 among women, compared with 52-48 to the Coalition among men and 52-48 to Labor among women last quarter.

• The age effect is a little more modest in the latest poll, with Labor leading 58-42 among the 18-34s and 53-47 among the 35-49s, respectively compared with 62-38 and 52-48 last quarter. The Coalition leads 54-46 among the 50-64s and 63-37 among the 65-plus, compared with 53-47 and 62-38 last quarter.

• Whereas the result was a perfect 50-50 among each of the three education cohorts last time, this time the Coalition leads 53-47 among those with no tertiary qualifications and 51-49 among those with TAFE and technical qualifications, while Labor leads 52-48 among those with university degrees.

• The last poll has 50-50 splits among the three lowest income cohorts, whereas the Coalition leads 57-43 among those with household incomes of $150,000 or higher. Last quarter, it was 50-50 among those on $50,000 or lower, 52-48 to the Labor among those on $50,000 to $100,000, 52-48 to the Coalition on those from $100,000 to $150,000, and 53-47 to the Coalition on $150,000 and higher.

• The Coalition leads 52-48 among those who speak only English at home, out from 51-49, and Labor leads 56-44 among non-English speakers, in from 57-43.

• The Coalition leads 60-40 among Christians, out from 58-42, and Labor leads 57-43 among those with no religion, in from 58-42.

The full results can be viewed here, I think without a paywall. The results are compiled from YouGov’s Newspoll surveys from June 3 to August 8, with a combined sample of 6392.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,230 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: June-August”

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  1. C@t.
    My point on Albo is that he may cut through for you. But you’re looking, I’m not.
    Call that what you want but on the media I consume, I don’t see much ALP.
    Heck i even get ALP emails and Hardly see a peep from Albo.

    Anyway, Keep an eye on 3 Gorges Dam and the flooding in China, it’s a big event. Just another disaster to add the dumpster fire of 2020

  2. Danama Papers @ #2497 Sunday, August 23rd, 2020 – 11:15 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2500 Sunday, August 23rd, 2020 – 9:02 pm

    Victoria @ #2489 Sunday, August 23rd, 2020 – 10:59 pm

    C@t

    Interesting.

    Yes, I wonder how the Herald Sun will treat the story about the Victorian Liberal Party tomorrow?

    I bet they’re burning the midnight oil right now trying to figure out how to blame Dan Andrews for it all.

    You mean, trying to find photos of Dan picking his nose and wiping it on his jacket too? 😆

  3. Someone responded on Twitter

    @KitWalker021475
    Replying to
    @rachelbaxendale
    I’m sure the timing of this announcement and the 60mins report, is purely coincidental.
    10:28 PM · Aug 23, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

  4. This latest Liberal party imbroglio will not even be part of mainstream conversation tomorrow, mostly dismissed as political stuff. “They’re all crook” will be the cry if any.
    Morrison has as much interest in the Victorian Liberals as he has in any matter. Stay in the PMship as long as possible is his guide for most matters, saving enough super to join the big boys and buy a waterfront in the Shire.
    Never cleaned a chook house and never will.
    Many voters relate to his deep sense of proprietary !

  5. Richard Willingham
    @rwillingham
    ·
    14m
    .
    @kevinandrewsmp
    says 60mins made some allegations which were false. BUT he is referring staff matters to the Dept of Finance for review.

    “The suggestion that I would be coerced into making decisions on staffing arrangements in my Electorate Office by others is untrue:

  6. I believe the the main problem with both State& Federal politics in all parties are that our politicians are not representative of their constituents, coming mainly from student politics through to staffers then into office or from special interest groups.

  7. Good Morning.

    Regarding the 60 Minutes story. Labor should have Dreyfus and Albanese talking Federal ICAC.

    Daniel Andrews can weigh in with commissioning an IBAC inquiry for the state jurisdiction.

    The Greens and any other parties should support this.

    Edit: Sukkar and Andrews will not resign and they will have to be forced out. The LNP doesn’t want by elections despite the pandemic increasing the advantage of incumbency.

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    60 Minutes uncovered a good bit of factional foul play in the Victorian Liberal Party. Nine Media tells us all about it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/that-s-politics-inside-the-liberal-party-s-branch-stacking-machine-20200821-p55o1f.html
    The editorial in The Age describes the broader implications of another stacking affair and repeats its call for a decent federal ICAC.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/broader-implications-of-another-stacking-affair-20200821-p55nyi.html
    Shaun Carny wonders what federal Labor is all about in 2020.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/so-what-exactly-is-the-point-of-the-labor-party-in-2020-20200821-p55o56.html
    Michael Pascoe begins this contribution with, “With the US presidential election race hotting up, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has offered a thinly veiled opinion: Donald Trump is second only to the pandemic as a threat to Australia’s welfare.” This is an excellent read!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/08/24/donald-trump-rba-pascoe/
    David Crowe explains what Frydenberg will tell parliament today about the economy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/treasury-data-gives-frydenberg-cause-for-optimism-20200823-p55ogw.html
    Josh Frydenberg talks up jobs market recovery but concedes more pain ahead writes Euan Black.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/work/2020/08/23/treasury-jobs-market-recovery/
    Nick Bonyhady says that the union movement will push back against the government’s industrial relations agenda as concerns rise among its leadership that workers will face cuts to their hours without JobKeeper to compensate them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/unions-fire-warning-shot-over-government-s-industrial-agenda-20200823-p55ofp.html
    With the passage of the legislation for the new JobKeeper scheme a priority for this fortnight’s sitting of Parliament, the changes to the industrial relations exemptions are likely to help secure Labor’s support, writes Phil Coorey.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/no-jobkeeper-exemptions-for-profitable-firms-20200823-p55of4
    Rob Harris writes about some candid reflections from Bill Shorten on his election loss.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-says-he-was-arrogant-failed-to-walk-in-shoes-of-anxious-australians-20200821-p55o8u.html
    Chris Mitchell says that journalists must take Morrison to task over Covid-19 failures in aged care.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/journalists-must-take-morrison-to-task-over-covid19-failures-in-aged-care/news-story/45f07f3512860105367fb5c9c43c4fd8
    The Liberal Party still has neoliberalism at its heart and we should be wary, writes Jack Hansen.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/beware-of-neoliberals-bearing-welfare,14235
    It looks like Labor in the NT will be able to form government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-set-to-retain-power-in-nt-after-australia-s-first-coronavirus-election-20200822-p55odb.html
    Michelle Grattan says its COVID response helped NT Labor, encouraging Palaszczuk and McGowan to stick to their scripts.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-covid-response-helped-nt-labor-encouraging-palaszczuk-and-mcgowan-to-stick-to-their-scripts-144920
    According to The Age, a public groundswell is building against Victoria’s protracted state of emergency after Premier Daniel Andrews said extraordinary powers in force since the start of the pandemic would be needed until a COVID-19 vaccine was found.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/we-can-t-keep-living-like-this-covid-19-state-of-emergency-opens-political-divide-20200823-p55oi7.html
    But Dan Andrews says he’ll lead Labor to the next state election.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/daniel-andrews-says-he-ll-lead-labor-to-the-next-state-election-20200823-p55ojo.html
    Labor has urged the Morrison government to reinstate JobKeeper payments to childcare workers after a spate of stand-downs during Melbourne’s COVID-19 lockdown.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/jobkeeper-plea-for-childcare-workers-locked-out-of-work-in-lockdown-20200821-p55o34.html
    As the first ‘remote’ sitting starts in Canberra, virtual parliaments should be the new norm, not a COVID bandaid opines law lecturer Sarah Moulds.
    https://theconversation.com/as-the-first-remote-sitting-starts-in-canberra-virtual-parliaments-should-be-the-new-norm-not-a-covid-bandaid-144737
    Given the low numbers in states other than Victoria, travel bubbles between states such as WA, South Australia, Tasmania and Northern Territory would make sense, according to Monash University constitutional law expert Luke Beck.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/not-on-my-watch-victorian-cases-keep-declining-20200823-p55of7
    The Australian’s Perry Williams reports that Santos is devising a giant ‘‘carbon sink’’ scheme where it can offer energy operators the ability to strip out and bury carbon from their gas supplies at its Moomba hub in South Australia as the industry seeks to accelerate efforts to lower pollution from their fossil fuel operations.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/santos-planning-carbon-sink-at-moomba-to-reduce-emissions/news-story/63f1d1b2752b7ba8fdca02907f15b2e3
    With Covid comes the perfect opportunity to shift Australia’s economy away from fossil fuel, explains Greg Jericho.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2020/aug/23/with-covid-comes-the-perfect-opportunity-to-shift-the-economy-away-from-fossil-fuel
    Rob Stokes, NSW Minister for Planning and Public Spaces, puts the case for “Build to Rent” to get Sydney off the property roller coaster.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/build-to-rent-sydney-can-get-off-the-property-roller-coaster-20200821-p55o7w.html
    Adele Ferguson reports that a former icare employee who blew the whistle on problems at the workers comp insurer was ignored and then victimised after speaking up.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/gutted-destroyed-betrayed-icare-whistleblower-victimised-after-speaking-up-20200823-p55ods.html
    Frictions between ASIC commissioners are bubbling up at a time when the corporate cop has suffered some humiliating legal setbacks, causing many to wonder just what has gone wrong, opines Karen Maley.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/asic-lurches-from-bad-to-worse-20200823-p55oek
    The federal government is prepared to fight Beijing at the World Trade Organisation after the Chinese Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-dumping investigation into Australian wine, reports Jennifer Duke.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-ll-vigorously-defend-australia-ready-to-fight-china-over-wine-dispute-20200823-p55oem.html
    Amanda Vanstone says that, despite the trade spats, we must learn to co-exist with China.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/trade-spats-or-not-we-must-learn-to-co-exist-with-china-20200821-p55o58.html
    The Australian reveals that the Chinese government is actively recruiting leading Australian scientists for a secretive research program that offers lucrative salaries and perks but requires their inventions to be patented in China and obliges them to abide by Chinese law.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/china-exploits-australias-lax-laws-to-sign-up-researchers-for-secret-program/news-story/35a48fe48919f0cc2cd269a3bc2fd91d
    Chinese cities have relaxed social distancing rules and mask mandates, and crowds are again filling tourist sites, cinemas and gyms.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/as-the-world-struggles-to-contain-coronavirus-life-gets-back-to-normal-in-china-20200824-p55ok0.html
    The London Telegraph points the finger at the “bumbling bureaucrats” in Wuhan for what the world is now suffering.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/the-world-may-be-paying-the-price-for-wuhan-s-bungling-bureaucrats-20200823-p55ofm.html
    The Covid-19 crisis is accelerating the breakup of the UK says John Harris.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/23/covid-19-crisis-breakup-uk-brexit-pandemic-scottish-independence
    Trump’s older sister and former federal judge, described him as a liar who has “no principles” in a series of audio recordings made by her niece, Mary Trump, in 2018 and 2019.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-sister-describes-him-as-liar-with-no-principles-in-recordings-20200823-p55ogk.html
    Amid fire and pestilence, floods and storms, the personal is political and Trump must go urges Robert Reich.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/23/donald-trump-wildfires-coronavirus-flood-hurricanes
    The former FBI director James Comey has said Steve Bannon is “in a world of trouble”, after the former Trump campaign manager and White House adviser was arrested on a charge of skimming donations from a fundraising campaign for a wall on the border with Mexico.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/james-comey-donald-trump-steve-bannon

    Cartoon Corner (David Rowe is having a two weeks break)

    Jim Pavlidis

    Peter Broelman

    Michael Leunig

    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre

    Johannes Leak

    Mark Knight

    From the US




  9. The ABC is reporting that Federal Parliament is meeting for, among other things, extending the Jobseeker payment. Sometimes they mention that it’s being “changed”. They “forget” to mention that it is to be cut, or, in standard media parlance, should that be “slashed”?

    The following information actually takes a bit of searching:

    • The Coronavirus Supplement will continue to be $550 per fortnight for payments up to and including the reporting period ending 24 September 2020.
    • From 25 September 2020 to 31 December 2020, the Supplement amount will be $250 per fortnight

    https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-07/Fact_sheet-Income_Support_for_Individuals_2.pdf

  10. Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s office says of tonight’s @60Mins report: “This is an organisational matter for the Victorian Division of the Party.” #auspol #springs

    So that’s that then? Surely today’s front pages will be full off “Liberal Corruption”, “The Prime Minister has Questions to answer” and similar.

  11. Good old Shaun Carney, stepping up to bat for the Liberal Party today with his distraction column about the Labor Party.

    Could someone knock on Mr Carney’s door and inform him that Labor are for the workers of this nation and anyone whose voice is drowned out by the vested interests that are running this country for their own benefit, especially by exploiting those same workers?

    Labor are also for the environment, despite what The Greens may carp about. Because that’s what we do whenever Labor are in power, we enact policy to benefit the environment. It may not be to the liking of the Purist Party, aka The Greens, but it is to the satisfaction of the vast majority of the nation and the detriment of the vested interests.

    Labor are also for egalitarian nation-building policy, such as a FTTP NBN. Egalitarian Education outcomes and egalitarian health services.

    Or projects such as the railway crossing removals in Victoria and Public Transport projects all around Australia.

    And we’re never going to stop fighting for them or to keep them out of the clutches of the voracious vested interests.

    And Shaun Carney can stick his opinion up his jumper!

  12. Steve777 @ #2526 Monday, August 24th, 2020 – 7:15 am

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s office says of tonight’s @60Mins report: “This is an organisational matter for the Victorian Division of the Party.” #auspol #springs

    So that’s that then? Surely today’s front pages will be full off “Liberal Corruption”, “The Prime Minister has Questions to answer” and similar.

    No, it’s been conveniently shuffled off to never never land, where people’s memories fade.

  13. “ Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s office says of tonight’s @60Mins report: “This is an organisational matter for the Victorian Division of the Party.” #auspol #springs

    So that’s that then? Surely today’s front pages will be full off “Liberal Corruption”, “The Prime Minister has Questions to answer” and similar.”

    Well. We are still waiting for the CPG’s follow up probe into Morrison’s miraculous 8-82 ‘win’ in the 2007 Cook preselection.

    Waiting. Waiting. Waiting …

  14. lizziesays:
    Monday, August 24, 2020 at 7:00 am
    Tim Watts MP
    @TimWattsMP
    ·
    23m
    Another big day at the buck passing factory coming up for Scott Morrison.
    _____________________
    Isn’t that the guy that Somyurek was secretly taped saying was bowing to him?

  15. Well. We are still waiting for the CPG’s follow up probe into Morrison’s miraculous 8-82 ‘win’ in the 2007 Cook preselection.

    A ‘miraculous’ turnaround for Scotty from Branch Stacking. 🙂

  16. Stephen Jones MP
    @StephenJonesMP

    In June this year he called it corruption. But now one of his senior Ministers has been caught red handed using taxpayer funds to stack branches Scott Morrison says its someone else’s responsibility.

    See a pattern here. The buck stops nowhere near Scott Morrison.
    #auspol

  17. Cat

    Instead of attacking the Greens because a journalist has published something. Labor needs to win elections.

    So ally with the Greens on a Federal ICAC. Ditto donor reform. Let’s have a Labor run Law and Order campaign. After all how can voters trust politicians who allegedly look after themselves not the people who voted them in.

    Exploit the historic distrust of politicians to make increased representation of people not corporations the issue. As we have seen from the last election the LNP are going to pretend mining corporations are more important than workers.

    All Labor and the Greens have to do is work out the best way to unite on protecting workers from the economic ravages of neoliberalism let the market rip.

    We know environment green tape and red tape protecting workplaces are very valid in protecting people.

    Labor and the Greens need to have serious discussion about that. It helps not to get upset about individual articles by journalists

    Edit: Or arguments over who is better on the environment. Just argue for better environmental laws.

  18. Morning all and thanks BK. This coverup of a covid cluster at a Peats Ridge (Central Coast) hydroponics farm is bad enough, but it had me wondering why NSW health would coverup this particular cluster, especially when no cruise ship was involved?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-24/failure-to-disclose-nsw-central-coast-covid-19-cluster/12582628

    So I innocently googled “liberal party peats ridge hydroponic farm” and guess who’s name turned up? Retail billionaire and Liberal Party donor, Gerry Harvey. He owns Family Fresh Farms.
    https://www.afr.com/rear-window/harvey-flogs-cucumber-operation-after-manager-s-conviction-20200130-p53w6d

    There are only two hydroponic farms on Peats Ridge Road. The other, Hydro Produce, is owned by John Cordina. Cordina Chicken is also a Liberal Party donor.
    https://www.hydroproduce.com.au/our-story/

    Small world, isn’t it?

  19. ‘ It helps not to get upset about individual articles by journalists..’

    And why shouldn’t we?

    People can walk and chew gum.

  20. guytaur,
    I thought you were all about ‘human rights’? Well it’s my right to have an opinion about an article by a journalist. You can have your opinion, or not, as you so decide for yourself. However, you have no right telling me what to do. This goes double for your precious Greens.

  21. Kos Samaras
    @KosSamaras
    ·
    8m
    84 Greek Australian COVID deaths. That’s just over 20% of all deaths in Victoria. Greek Australians only make up around 2% of this state’s population. This will have to be one of the largest impacts on any ethnic minority in the world when it comes to COVID. Aged Care…..

  22. Zoomster

    Last I looked journalists were not the Greens party.
    Don’t pretend journalists are the Green Party.

    If we go that route let’s pretend that Phillip Adams Late Night Live has been the official party position of Labor.

  23. guytaur

    Where did I say journalists were the Green party?

    I’m still wondering why you think we shouldn’t question them, particularly if you think the Greens are open slather.

  24. I think that SmoCo’s failure to accept responsibility and accountability resonates well with the Australia population. Why?

    Because most Australians also don’t accept responsibility and accountability and are always looking to blame someone else for their own *uckups.

  25. Cat

    Saying try not getting upset about individual articles by journalists is not the extreme you are pretending it is.

    Remember we all get upset at individual articles of journalists.
    That includes by me. In the context of thinking about winning elections it’s better not to get upset.

    I was certainly not saying shut up don’t speak.

  26. CAVEAT IMPACTOR–‘ELECTION DAY ASTEROID’ IS NO THREAT: Many news sources are reporting the approach of asteroid 2018 VP1, which might hit Earth on Nov. 2nd. According to NASA, there is a significant 0.4% chance of impact. There’s no need to fear, however, because this asteroid is really small–only about 2 meters in diameter. Even if the space rock does hit Earth, the vast majority of its mass will disintegrate harmlessly high in the atmosphere, producing a beautiful fireball, not Armageddon.

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