There probably won’t be any polls this week, with the fortnightly Essential Research and tri-weekly Newspoll having dropped last week. But there will of course be a Northern Territory election on Saturday, which is the subject of its own thread here.
Other news:
• Sue Bailey of the Launceston Examiner reports that Eric Abetz is expected to retain the top position on the Tasmanian Liberals’ Senate ticket at the next election, contrary to earlier reports that Jonathan Duniam was planning to topple him, after the two “kissed and made up”. However, the report further says that “another senior Liberal” is doing the numbers for the third candidate who will be seeking re-election, Wendy Askew, who filled the Senate vacancy created last year when her brother, David Bushby, took up a diplomatic post in the United States. Also: “It is believed Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants the pre-selection delayed until next year so as not to be a distraction during the COVID-19 pandemic.”
• Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald has a story on the willing Liberal preselection contest in Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall at last year’s election. Abbott loyalists are said to be advancing the claim of Sacha Grebe, a former Scott Morrison staffer and employee of lobbying firm DPG Advisory, whose principal is David Gazard, a Morrison ally and candidate for Eden-Monaro in 2010. Grebe backer and local party activist Walter Villatora is engaged in a seemingly forlorn bid to have the preselection held as soon as possible. Others said to be in the hunt are “state MP Natalie Ward, state executive member Alex Dore and Menzies Research Centre manager Tim James”.
• There has been a change in the party balance of the Senate with Rex Patrick’s resignation from the Centre Alliance to sit as an independent. The Advertiser ($) has also reported the party’s two remaining members, Stirling Griff in the Senate and Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, are the subject of approaches from Liberals to defect to the party, although the notion is meeting bitter resistance from conservatives.
• The results of Tasmania’s recent upper house elections have been finalised, and as expected have resulted in the election of Labor’s Bastian Seidel in the seat of Huon south of Hobart, and of Liberal candidate Jo Palmer in Rosevears. The former was achieved over independent incumbent Robert Armstrong by the comfortable margin of 7.3% at the final count (12,284 votes to 9,152), but the latter proved a close run thing, with Jo Palmer landing 260 votes clear of independent candidate Janie Finlay, 11,492 votes (50.6%) or 11,232 (49.4%).
“Sanders trying to heal the split in the Democrats and remove Trump…unlike his apostles here, who are still effectively rooting for Trump.”
He’s always been a team player despite all the hostility thrown at him. People here actually thought he’d run third party even after he’d explicitly ruled that out.
Boo – romantic, and substantially paid for, holiday to Lake St Clair postponed again
Honestly, I can no longer see a compelling health reason to keep Tasmania locked away from SA and WA and NT and possibly QLD and the Sth Island of NZ (and the Martinborough wine region of the north island).
SK,
I can see a compelling reason. You don’t want to have a single case bob up. No travel in, no risk. You don’t want to be the premier who let somebody in or even allowed it as a possibility. You want the whole nation to be green light before you open up.
One advantage to tonight’s virtual Convention was hearing from voters in their homes why they are voting for Biden and Harris. The most telling people were a middle aged man whose farm business was damaged by Trump’s tariffs and a young woman whose father died of Coronavirus because he believed Trump and was “betrayed”.
Minister for Aged Care has been let out to defend gov actions. Anyone seen Morrison today?
Sure. There is a risk to border closures tho. I know Taswegians who are losing their jobs in tourist affected areas.
So do the pro and con and the risk assessment.
There are no cases in WA. It is not there. With the new VIC border controls it is probably gone again in SA. The risk is very very low. Make visitors log everywhere they go. Require tests 2 weeks prior to travel, on arrival and after 2 weeks.
Doing this would also put real pressure on NSW to move to an elimination strategy.
Simon Katich:
Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 12:03 pm
[‘Is there an opening in Hunter coming up? He has excellent pedigree for that electorate.’]
Agree but he appears to be done with politics, now ‘chair of Industry Super Australia and Chair of IFM Investors, a global asset management business owned by the industry superannuation funds.’
SMFH
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1295524630430711808
Money shot quote: (from Amy Klobuchar)
I think the extended lockdown in Tas is OTT.
But I’ll bet that it’s popular. We are discovering that most Australians seem rather to like the idea of their state putting up barriers against the rest of the country.
There wont be a green light. Even in elimination there will be leakages. Hopefully they get their stuff together to work out ways to catch those early. It will require far more testing and, as I have argued, some incentives to get peeps to test.
The big test here will be the introduction of a few hundred OS students under a tightly regulated trial. Regulation. Rules. Respect for rules and enforcement. Things that have slipped away from our social and political culture. Covid is forcing us and governments to relearn such things.
She should write lines for Shorten.
SK:
WA has made it crystal clear that it has zero interest in an open border arrangement with Tassie.
FF
Oh yes it is. You can spin it any way you like to make yourself feel better about it but the fact is that Biden is directly responsible for the war taking place. Biden’s war crime is the Iraq War.?
The one’s that committed the WAR crimes were those that IGNORED and covered up the fact the WMD inspectors had said they failed to find any such weapons!.
meher baba @ #1314 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 11:56 am
He made it even clearer he has zero interest in an open border arrangement with Clive Palmer.
Some of the DNC speakers tomorrow: Bill Clinton, Jill Biden, John Kerry, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
They said the same with SA. Nice.
These states went through the wringer to get elimination. So I kinda get they dont want to go back. But then again… we also want the economy to pick up and to have some treats like interstate holidays and to see interstate loved ones. I reckon we would all be happy to follow some stringent rules.
There is more than a little common wealth to be had if states with near elimination open up to each other.
SK,
I like the idea of establishing travel protocols, etc. The AFL has probably been at the forefront of what is required.
This will open up the country to interstate travel, tourism and business, etc.
I also think that once there is some serious control over Victoria, that efforts then move to blanket test the population to push for elimination is the way to go.
Non @ #1203 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 1:14 pm
Unlike previous Dem candidates, Biden/Harris have actually reached out to the progressives this time so it’s little wonder Bernie is onboard.
Albo might take note…
Mavis @ #1226 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 2:03 pm
There is nothing to be gained and plenty to lose having Clinton involved.
Aside from this mild criticism, Trump thinks Biden is a good bloke:
Bonza
“He’s always been a team player despite all the hostility thrown at him. People here actually thought he’d run third party even after he’d explicitly ruled that out.”
Yes, as a non-Democrat, Sanders has been highly supportive of the winning Dem presidential candidate. It’s a shame his fanatical Bernie Bro/Bernie-or-Bust supporters don’t take his cues.
Gunner was a gonna some six months ago but his odds of winning on Saturday are now better than even, due in no small part for his handling of C.19.
Biden has done far, far more to reach out to progressives than Hillary Clinton ever did. He is being rewarded with party unity which will hopefully see his campaign sweep to victory in November.
It wouldn’t shock me if Daniel Andrews implemented a two stage strategy to get past this 2nd wave disaster.
1. Spill the Labor leadership and then seek re-endorsement as Labor leader.
2. If successful in the party vote, then throw himself at the mercy of Victorians for the next state election.
Sadly though, I’m not sure he will overcome the attacks from his many and varied opponents.
Rex Douglas:
Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 2:23 pm
Mavis @ #1226 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 2:03 pm
Some of the DNC speakers tomorrow: Bill Clinton, Jill Biden, John Kerry, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
[‘There is nothing to be gained and plenty to lose having Clinton involved.’]
That’s moot, Americans having a good deal of respect for former presidents, unlike us, with our ex-prime ministers being metaphorically dispatched to the knackery.
Mc Gowan has stated clearly that if he opens the border he becomes responsible for any other states stuff ups.
N T has some sort of hybrid border closures with self isolation and is even bringing in international fruit packers. SA has open borders with NT. IF WA opened borders to SA and the virus spread from Vic to NT and then by the time it was discovered it could have seeded in WA. All premiers that achieved virtual elimination should have stayed closed, now no one can be sure there is no spread. So staying closed is McGowans best option to be able to continue reopening internally.
On the subject of AFL as a model the players, many of whom think they are gods, keep breaching the restrictions. If it is the model it isn’t a good one.
Just wondering if my logic here is sound.
All the Americans who voted for George W Bush (and they re-elected him) are war criminals because they supported his decision to go to war in Iraq?
I mean, with absolutely zero nuance, that would be the case, right?
Man, that’s a lot of trials to hold. That war crimes tribunal is going to be busy for a long time.
Note to self: must remember to advise my child to study to become a war crimes lawyer.
Rex
Can’t see the reason for the gloom. Andrews has never been a media favorite, and if they had any sway he wouldn’t have won the last election. All the indications are he’s at least consolidated his position, and very very probably improved it.
The state of the Opposition won’t hurt him, either.
Rex,
1. I doubt it – I think he has still been a shining light. To get on top of this outbreak has been no small achievement.
2. He can’t call an election. It is legislated for Nov 2022, there is no supply or parliamentary reason to alter the fixed election date.
Gene Miles
You haven’t gone far enough. Any Democrat who voted for a Democrat who supported the Iraq war is also a war criminal, so I think that’s at least 50% of the US population who bear personal responsibility and should be spending time in the dock at The Hague.
Gene Miles
Biden directly worked to enable the ‘war crime’ a big difference. Not that it will make any difference in this election.
Forgive me, zoomster, but you are absolutely correct.
Note to self: remind myself to also study to be a war crimes lawyer. Good family business opportunity.
zoomster @ #1331 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 2:37 pm
When he says “I’m the leader and I will take full responsibility” it just seems logical to me he’s planning on opening himself up to the party and the people, as he probably should. Fresh start.
Rex in your dreams.
Michael O’Brien
End of discussion.
Well I suppose you could add:
yap yap yap
Mavis:
I don’t believe that is so – in a similar vein, it is de riguer for former PMs from the same party to be present at federal campaign launches.
Nothing to be gained? Nothing?
He is popular. Well known. Well spoken. Charismatic. Intelligent. Respected. 2 term past President of the Democrat Party.
I am holding up my fingers to the screen to show you how many living 2 term Democrat Presidents there are. You dont want one of them on stage at a DNC convention?
Gene Miles:
Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 2:35 pm
[‘Man, that’s a lot of trials to hold. That war crimes tribunal is going to be busy for a long time.’]
Not to mention the gaols to house them.
Alpha Zero @ #1332 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 2:38 pm
Yes there won’t be an election until 2022, but I can see him wanting a mandate from his party to offer himself and his party, warts and all, to the people at the next election.
I think that’s the appropriate course of action.
Simon Katich @ #1340 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 2:44 pm
Yes. The one whose last name is Obama, please.
Gene Miles
Still not there. Australia supported the war. Half of Australia voted Liberal. Your client base expends some more.
Speaking of those found guilty of war crimes, there are currently six in custody.
Simon Katich @ #1339 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 2:44 pm
Clinton has become very stinky.
The Dems don’t need to expose that to the voters.
State premiers playing the My border closure is bigger than your border closure game
NZ proves they can never guarantee elimination but as long as Canberra keeps sending them money to subsidise their games they will keep on playing them.
Clinton has (i think) the biggest electoral victory of any Democrat President since LBJ.
He also has the second biggest.
A war crime is a is a violation of the laws of armed conflict – it is about actions committed during a war, not the war itself.
A war may separately be illegal under the UN charter, but war crimes can be committed during a legal war, and an illegal war may be conducted without war crimes.
If the Senate voted to, say, authorise a specific military operation in which they knew, or should have known, that there was no legitimate military target then you could certainly mount a credible war crimes case.
RMIT Fact Check refusing to give in. Fletcher is a stubborn, lying hound.
Bonza says:
Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 1:30 pm
“Sanders trying to heal the split in the Democrats and remove Trump…unlike his apostles here, who are still effectively rooting for Trump.”
He’s always been a team player despite all the hostility thrown at him. People here actually thought he’d run third party even after he’d explicitly ruled that out.
…whereas in Australia the split is institutionalised. The Greens run an anti-Labor splinter and play the same functional role as their predecessors – Hughes, Lyons and Santamaria.
Labor have won elections from Opposition despite the efforts of splitters just twice. Gough and Rudd were able to win in spite of the attempted sabotage of the DLP and the Greens. In each case, however, the splitters had roles in the destruction of both Labor governments.
Even Curtin, the greatest leader we have ever had, could not win from Opposition, in part because of the enmities generated by the split in 1931.
The divide on the left will keep the LNP in power here, just as the divide among the Democrats helped bring Trump to power in 2016. The Greens can hardly be ignorant of this. And yet they re-avow the split every day.