Preselections, defections and state elections

Jockeying begins in earnest for Liberal preselections in Warringah and for the Tasmanian Senate ticket, and a new milestone in the decomposition of Nick Xenophon’s party.

There probably won’t be any polls this week, with the fortnightly Essential Research and tri-weekly Newspoll having dropped last week. But there will of course be a Northern Territory election on Saturday, which is the subject of its own thread here.

Other news:

Sue Bailey of the Launceston Examiner reports that Eric Abetz is expected to retain the top position on the Tasmanian Liberals’ Senate ticket at the next election, contrary to earlier reports that Jonathan Duniam was planning to topple him, after the two “kissed and made up”. However, the report further says that “another senior Liberal” is doing the numbers for the third candidate who will be seeking re-election, Wendy Askew, who filled the Senate vacancy created last year when her brother, David Bushby, took up a diplomatic post in the United States. Also: “It is believed Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants the pre-selection delayed until next year so as not to be a distraction during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Michael Koziol of the Age/Herald has a story on the willing Liberal preselection contest in Warringah, which Tony Abbott lost to independent Zali Steggall at last year’s election. Abbott loyalists are said to be advancing the claim of Sacha Grebe, a former Scott Morrison staffer and employee of lobbying firm DPG Advisory, whose principal is David Gazard, a Morrison ally and candidate for Eden-Monaro in 2010. Grebe backer and local party activist Walter Villatora is engaged in a seemingly forlorn bid to have the preselection held as soon as possible. Others said to be in the hunt are “state MP Natalie Ward, state executive member Alex Dore and Menzies Research Centre manager Tim James”.

• There has been a change in the party balance of the Senate with Rex Patrick’s resignation from the Centre Alliance to sit as an independent. The Advertiser ($) has also reported the party’s two remaining members, Stirling Griff in the Senate and Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie, are the subject of approaches from Liberals to defect to the party, although the notion is meeting bitter resistance from conservatives.

• The results of Tasmania’s recent upper house elections have been finalised, and as expected have resulted in the election of Labor’s Bastian Seidel in the seat of Huon south of Hobart, and of Liberal candidate Jo Palmer in Rosevears. The former was achieved over independent incumbent Robert Armstrong by the comfortable margin of 7.3% at the final count (12,284 votes to 9,152), but the latter proved a close run thing, with Jo Palmer landing 260 votes clear of independent candidate Janie Finlay, 11,492 votes (50.6%) or 11,232 (49.4%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,622 comments on “Preselections, defections and state elections”

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  1. Photos show transformation of China’s original virus epicentre

    Thousands of partygoers have been snapped crammed into a water park for an enormous music festival

    No, this isn’t another reckless party in virus-ravaged Florida, or Sao Paulo.

    It’s Wuhan, China – the original epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic.

    The Wuhan Maya Beach Water Park was filled with partygoers over the weekend as it hosted an electronic music festival, with little sign of social distancing or mask-wearing.

    It’s a sign of how far the city has come with the pandemic.

    https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/coronavirus-photos-show-transformation-of-chinas-original-virus-epicentre/news-story/ef14a1cd7642e8bd85de46a34f84f9e1

  2. The petrodollar theory is consistent with the evidence.

    Also explains Obama’s push to export gas to Europe and the Australian Govt’s persistence with a gas exports-led revovery, in cahoots with Chevron and others.

    It’s all part of maintaining the macro-financial status quo.

  3. Danama
    “If the Dems haven’t booked Mary Trump as a “guest” speaker they really aren’t doing their job. Michael Cohen as well.”

    No, bad idea. Let Mary Trump undermine Trump from within the Republican Party. The Lincoln Project is the most appropriate forum for her.

  4. poroti @ #1149 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 7:11 am

    Speaking of a barrel of larfs. Donald chips in.
    .
    Covid 19 coronavirus: Donald Trump on New Zealand’s new outbreak
    “The problem is [there is a] big surge in New Zealand, you know it’s terrible – we don’t want that.”
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12357371

    Let’s look.

    Yesterday:

    New Zealand: 13 new cases for 69 active cases, 3 of which are listed as serious/critical.

    USA: 37,862 new cases for 2,475,564 active cases, 17,237 of which are listed as serious/critical.

    Wouldn’t the US hate that?

    The man is an idiot!!!!!

  5. Kakuru @ #1154 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 9:18 am

    No, bad idea. Let Mary Trump undermine Trump from within the Republican Party. The Lincoln Project is the most appropriate forum for her.

    Yeah, that. The Dems just need to be their stable, boring selves. Let the disaffected Republicans handle the personal attacks and mud-slinging*.

    * Though the Dems should be watching and learning so they can do it themselves next time.

  6. Mary Trump wouldn’t really be good because her grudge is perceived as more personal and you’re just signal-boosting that. It’s not the same effect as a Republican politician who is saying that, in their professional political opinion, Trump is a bad President and this time around it’s worth crossing party lines to vote him out. That speaks more to on-the-fence conservatives.

  7. Barney in Tanjung Bunga
    I think his lackeys must be turning the covid19 charts upside down before showing them to The Donald.

  8. “On that note, you could desist from alleging that those who disagree with you have “lost their moral compass” while trafficking lies yourself.”

    ***

    Nah. I am well within my rights to point out Joe Biden’s track record and hold his supporters accountable. He is a public official running for office and should have the spotlight turned on him. Those who are attempting to sweep Iraq under the carpet have indeed lost their moral compass.

  9. RL, Kakaru and AR

    OK, all valid points. I withdraw my suggestion. It seemed like a good idea to me at the time but your collective points have shown it to be not as good as I thought it was.

    Carry on. As you were.

  10. Bushfire Bill @ #1080 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 12:56 am

    Yabba, glad to see you needed to re-read the block of text to discover the errors I referred to. Just like I said you would.

    My suggestion is that when you’re already in a hole, Yabba, stop digging.

    See if you can udnertsnad tihs. Go fcuk yuosrlef, leambrian. Qiuelty, thoguh.

    Taht’s my sugegtsoin. Capice?

  11. Bushfire Billsays: Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 9:28 am

    Mr Trump visited his brother at a New York City hospital on Friday (local time) after White House officials said he had become seriously ill.

    Really does sound like it might be virus-related.

    ******************************************************

    Brian J. Karem@BrianKarem

    NOW: in a soon to be published interview @MaryLTrump tells me, “Maybe a week before my book leaked I got a text that Rob (Robert Trump) was very ill and in an induced coma because of blood cots on the brain.”

  12. Firefox @ #1161 Tuesday, August 18th, 2020 – 7:28 am

    “On that note, you could desist from alleging that those who disagree with you have “lost their moral compass” while trafficking lies yourself.”

    ***

    Nah. I am well within my rights to point out Joe Biden’s track record and hold his supporters accountable. He is a public official running for office and should have the spotlight turned on him. Those who are attempting to sweep Iraq under the carpet have indeed lost their moral compass.

    You seem to have the nuance of a brick falling from a great height.

  13. Nah. I am well within my rights to point out Joe Biden’s track record and hold his supporters accountable. He is a public official running for office and should have the spotlight turned on him. Those who are attempting to sweep Iraq under the carpet have indeed lost their moral compass.

    FFS Firefox, at this point in time, there is a choice of two options.

    History got the USA to this position, and no reasonable person would object to learning from recent history; but right now, it is irrelevant to the decision facing the US electorate.

  14. [‘Mr Keelty, who has held various government positions since he retired in 2009, has admitted he passed on confidential information given to him by his ex-colleagues to former special forces soldier Ben Roberts-Smith just days after the AFP had launched inquiries into the Afghan veteran and Victoria Cross recipient.’]

    Porter claims he had no knowledge of this when in September 2018 Keelty was appointed as the ‘Inspector-General of the Northern Basin water system, an integrity role that has since expanded to include the Murray-Darling Basin.’ And there’s no evidence he did. But how can Keelty be seen as an impartial player in the position he now holds. For a former AFP Commissioner to tip-off Roberts- Smith that he was the subject of an investigation is mind-boggling and has little doubt hampered the investigation of alleged war crimes. And for Porter to still support Keelty as the interim Inspector-General is clear evidence of his incompetence – this in the wake him joining the Cth in Palmer’s appeal to the HC, only to have his boss withdraw from the proceeding after it became clear the Tories would be in deep political trouble in WA. When Parliament resumes, Labor should go after Porter with a blow torch. And Keelty’s integrity has suffered what should be fatal blow.

  15. But how can Keelty be seen as an impartial player in the position he now holds.

    That’s been the case for years with Keelty. He was Howard’s Man, back in the day.

  16. Phoenix,

    Blood clots on the brain are a not uncommon symptom of COVID-19.

    They are being cagey about the underlying origins of the clotting.

  17. We are faced with having to transform an economy. It will be people like firefox that continue running around chanting Ardani Ardani.

  18. Firefox says:
    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 9:28 am
    “On that note, you could desist from alleging that those who disagree with you have “lost their moral compass” while trafficking lies yourself.”

    ***

    Nah. I am well within my rights to point out Joe Biden’s track record and hold his supporters accountable. He is a public official running for office and should have the spotlight turned on him. Those who are attempting to sweep Iraq under the carpet have indeed lost their moral compass.

    I haven’t seen any bludgers wielding brush ware. You’re just another sanctimonious knucklehead/sore loser who thinks they know better than everyone else and who’re willing to lie to sustain their own sense of moral superiority.

    Describing you as a moron is to insult morons.

  19. Bushfire Bill:

    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 9:44 am

    [‘That’s been the case for years with Keelty. He was Howard’s Man, back in the day.’]

    On that, we can agree. I also think the current commissioner has the same political leanings, witness his dismissal, for example, of Taylor’s erroneous claims against Clover Moore, treating it as a joke.

  20. We are faced with having to transform an economy. It will be people like firefox that continue running around chanting Ardani Ardani.

    A feature of Cancel Culture on both the Left and Right sides of politics is that there is no forgetting, no forgiveness and no sense of balance or perspective.

    You make one mistake and you’re damned forever for it.

    But life is messy.

  21. “FFS Firefox, at this point in time, there is a choice of two options.

    History got the USA to this position, and no reasonable person would object to learning from recent history; but right now, it is irrelevant to the decision facing the US electorate.”

    ***

    Try telling the population of Iraq that what happened to their country is “irrelevant”. The world is bigger than the USA and their election.

    And no, there are actually three options for Australians:

    1) Support the establishment’s right wing war criminal for US president.

    2) Support the current far-right extremist war crim president (Trump has also committed war crimes during his time in office).

    3) Support neither of the right wing war crims mentioned above because it will make literally ZERO difference to the outcome one way or the other. Hope Trump loses and leave it at that.

    Biden does not need the support of Australians to defeat Trump. There is no requirement for you to support him in order for Trump to be removed. It will make no difference if you walk away from supporting a right wing war crim like Biden. None.

    Again, there is no good reason or excuse for anyone who is not an American to be supporting Biden. None. He is an evil man who is responsible for millions of deaths. He does not deserve your support.

  22. “We are faced with having to transform an economy. It will be people like firefox that continue running around chanting Ardani Ardani.”

    ***

    Opposing Adani is actually all about transforming the economy and power generation. It will be people like you who continue to bury their heads in the sand while the climate crisis continues to worsen.

  23. Bushfire Bill

    That’s been the case for years with Keelty. He was Howard’s Man, back in the day.

    I’ve always wondered what Howard “did” to Keelty. I remember he stood up and rightly called bullshit on some claims made by Howard and his crew. The next time I heard him and ever since The Rodent couldn’t ask for a more loyal ‘servant’.

  24. The Greenist persists in thinking they know better or more or have special insight and that this not only affords them the authority to sermonise to the bludgers, but also to find them morally defective. What a complete fucking Wally. They are to observing the US election as Clive Palmer is to the legal process.

  25. “Firefox, if you feel so indifferent in the matter, you’re free to not continuously post about it.”

    ***

    Nah, I will always call out right wing war crims. The standard you walk past is the standard you accept, and I ain’t accepting either option for president. That’s why I’m taking option 3. Both of them have already proven that they are unfit to lead a country.

  26. A gesture such as this could save Trump’s presidency

    As if Trump knows how to swim. Or could refrain from trying to molest the drowning women long enough to rescue them.

  27. Furthermore to the above it raises the age old moral question:

    If you saw Donald Trump and Scott Morrison both drowning, but you could only rescue one of them, which pub would you go to?

    😉 😆

  28. I well remember Howard’s never ending handshake with Keelty . Mick had been brought back into the fold after his statement of the bleeding obvious. The point of the performance, of course, being that this treatment could & would happen to anyone else inclined to contradict or criticise the liberal government.

  29. Firefox says:
    Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 10:10 am
    “Firefox, if you feel so indifferent in the matter, you’re free to not continuously post about it.”

    ***

    Nah, I will always call out right wing war crims. The standard you walk past is the standard you accept, and I ain’t accepting either option for president. That’s why I’m taking option 3. Both of them have already proven that they are unfit to lead a country.

    This is an entirely defensible position to hold. But this is not the end of it for you. Rather, you describe those who hope Biden will defeat Trump as having ‘lost their moral compass’. We are not idiots. We know that we do not vote in US elections, ffs. We are not responsible for the deaths of millions of Iraqis…though, to read your drivel, you’d think we helped inspire this. I marched against the Iraq war. I hope Biden defeats Trump. I am not a moral vacuum. Go fuck yourself, FF. You make me sick.

  30. … first clip from “Rise Up,” a video that’ll be shown during tonight’s opening session of the mostly virtual Democratic National Convention (9 to 11 ET).

    Why it matters: Tonight’s convention theme is “We the People,” and the video is meant to juxtapose images from President Trump’s America with people rising above hate and division.

    Details: As Bruce Springsteen sings “The Rising,” the video shows a vacant Times Square subway station and empty MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, a large memorial mural to George Floyd, kids in cages, and President Trump chucking paper towels during his visit to Puerto Rico.

    (via Axios)

    https://youtu.be/6eMqC2l3tUA

  31. Significant High Court case on duty of care of a paramedic, Queensland v Masson [2020] HCA 28 (13 August 2020)

    https://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCA/2020/28.html

    Highlights the degree of absurdity attached to lawyers, medical experts and the court, in comfort, reviewing decisions made under the greatest of pressure

    [A critical factual issue at the trial was whether Mr Peters had considered administering adrenaline to Ms Masson at the outset. The trial judge found that he had and that he had decided against doing so because Ms Masson had a high heart rate (tachycardia) and high blood pressure (hypertension)[3]. His Honour found that in 2002 there was a responsible body of opinion within the medical profession which supported the view that Ms Masson’s high heart rate and high blood pressure, in the context of her overall condition, provided a medically sound basis to prefer the administration of salbutamol to adrenaline at the time of initial treatment. The treatment of Ms Masson was held not to have fallen below the standard of care to be observed by ambulance officers. The claim was dismissed.]

  32. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    13m
    2nd question at @Albo Sydney presser: based on #4Corners when are you going to condemn Daniel Andrews? Pathetic. #auspol

  33. Lizzie,
    that’s what @AbsentAlbo’s silence strategy is getting him.
    If he were calling out the government day and day out people wouldn’t be looking there.

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