Nothing succeeds like secession

A new poll finds a certain amount of support for Western Australia to go it alone, as the Federal Court finds facts in Clive Palmer’s constitutional challenge against the state’s border closures.

The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.

There is also the following:

• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.

• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,962 comments on “Nothing succeeds like secession”

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  3. NonSequitur @ #1539 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 10:09 am

    Firefox says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 10:06 am
    “Firefox, it’s not about The Greens’ preferences, that is a furphy and a convenient one that Greenites use when confronted with the reality that their behaviour damages Labor. Simple and as straightforward as that, really.”

    ***

    So you are telling me that what I said was wrong? You think the Coalition like us Greens, do you? You know better than that. The behaviour of the Greens strengthens the progressive left.

    The LNP are not stupid. They know how to use the Greens. They do. The Greens are not stupid, they know how to use the LNP as well. They do.

    The Greens have done immense harm to the Left over the last 25 years. We are fucked because of it.

    Labor has yielded environmental policy space to the Green.

    Labor provides oxygen to the Green.

  4. Spurrier makes a great comment that if they make isolation too hard people will not come forward to get tested. Fair enough. But she sidestepped the issue that SAHealth guidelines and rules on self isolation was (and to some extent still is) very lax wrt family members in the household of the isolated person. This makes sense if they are isolating just because they had a test due to having the sniffles and are waiting 2 days for the result. But if the person is isolating because they have come in close contact with a known case or have come from a hotspot in Victoria then the isolation rules for those in the house of the isolated person need to be strengthened. They household needs to be given resources to help them manage that difficult circumstance. It may be funds for the family to live in a hotel for two weeks – for example.

  6. frednk says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 9:40 am
    “Bucephalus

    Andrew Laming is blindly following the TRUMP playbook.”

    You’ll need to expand on your comment because I have not seen any recent media coverage of what he has been saying – unlike Joel Fitzgibbon.

  7. Firefox, I worked on some of those upgrades. Some of them made sense. Others seemed just a way of being seen to spend money.

    A fast train from Brissy to Byron would have been something. Where is Cud when you need him?

  8. lizzie @ #1538 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 8:12 am

    It has begun to irritate me that so much of the News yesterday was the presenter asking the journo “What are Victorians feeling about the lockdown?” Journo then produces one or two video grabs to support his “opinion”.

    Yes, this has long been a pet bug with news reporting dating back before I first left Australia, 2004.

    Is the reporter that incompetent that they can’t formulate a proper report?
    I can understand them doing a live update, but this sort of journalist interviewing journalist stuff is highly annoying. 🙁

  9. Lizzie

    So do I. It’s another lovely sunny morning in my neighbourhood too.
    Today is number one son milestone birthday. Same day as Obama. Lol!

  10. “Firefox,
    The Greens deal with the Liberals in parliament all the time. Changes to the voting rules in the Senate to sideline Labor and advantage themselves and the Liberals? Not a problem.”

    ***

    Those Senate changes were agreed to by all three parties (Greens, Lab and Lib) before Labor pulled out at the last second to make a stunt out of it. You should be thanking us for going through with it. The endless preference whispering and harvesting of micro parties that was going on was an absolute joke. The Senate changes have had a positive impact.

    If you want to see an instance of Labor and the Libs teaming up, check out the attempts the two party establishment have made in places like the ACT and TAS over the years to change to makeup of those parliaments in an attempt to sideline the Greens.

  12. Hmmm.

    @camybobany
    ·
    6m
    Replying to @noplaceforsheep

    I noticed flights from Sydney to Cairns have also been cancelled. I was shocked to hear that Domestic Flights do not have to provide passenger details to States who are trying to track contacts. Apparently Fed gov has been asked repeatedly to change this and they haven’t.

  13. NonSequitur says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 9:58 am

    “The point is not that the Greens and the Right admire each other. Clearly, they do not. But that is irrelevant. The point is that the Greens campaign against Labor all the time. Every day. Whether there is an election on or not. They seek to shore up their own support by attacking Labor on their own decoy-like grounds. Their spurious same/same criticising are all of a piece with this. The Greens are an anti-Labor party. There is no disputing this. They have split the historic Labor plurality.”

    Your analysis is very weak. In a compulsory preferential voting system the only thing that matters after first preference votes is the preference flow of the losers.

    When the DLP was significant I am happy to concede that DLP preferences helped the Liberal and Country Parties because those voters were very much center-right types.

    Greens voters, outside of the WentworthS and Applecrosses who have little impact, are hard left. Their preference flows almost always go straight to the ALP unless it’s through a Socialist Alliance or similar candidate. The only place it truly matters is where the Greens are so strong they can/could win a seat off the ALP but they are rare.


  14. mundo says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 10:27 am

    NonSequitur @ #1524 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 10:02 am

    Firefox says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 9:56 am
    “One of those votes was Mundo’s. Labor 1, Greens 2.”

    Then mundo cotes Labor 1 and anti-Labor 2.

    Green preferences INCREASED Labor candidates lead over the Liberal proxy independent.

    So mundo has moved from undermining albo to defending the Green/Liberal wedge.

  15. Mr Palmer has claimed he wanted to enter WA to attend to business interests and meet WA senator and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann.

    His business interests entailed the sale of his “Covid Cure”: almost 33 million doses of hydroxychloroquine, according to Mark McGowan.

    https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-says-billionaire-clive-palmer-wanted-to-enter-wa-to-promote-coronavirus-cure-ng-b881627900z?utm_campaign=share-icons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&tid=1596501317373

  16. His business interests entailed the sale of his “Covid Cure”: almost 33 million doses of hydroxychloroquine, according to Mark McGowan.
    _____
    So it was for the good of the nation then?

  18. frednk @ #1560 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 10:39 am


    mundo says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 10:27 am

    NonSequitur @ #1524 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 10:02 am

    Firefox says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 9:56 am
    “One of those votes was Mundo’s. Labor 1, Greens 2.”

    Then mundo cotes Labor 1 and anti-Labor 2.

    Green preferences INCREASED Labor candidates lead over the Liberal proxy independent.

    So mundo has moved from undermining albo to defending the Green/Liberal wedge.

    If the ‘Green/Liberal wedge’ whatever that is, gets Labor candidates elected then, yes, Mundo is all for it!
    Mundo doesn’t seek to undermine Albo.
    Albo is capable of doing that himself.

  19. We have all he power and might of the Federal Govt available to take this virus on but instead they sit back and take every opportunity to smear Dan Andrews who is working his guts out to control it.

  20. ‘Front page’ of online The Australian. In the words of Harry Hoo “Amazing”

    Coronavirus: Extreme measures required to conquer extremely vicious enemy

    The state of emergency and extreme lockdown in Victoria is the right strategy for this horrible moment in the fight against COVID-19, and consistent with all international evidence.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coronavirus-extreme-measures-required-to-conquer-extremely-vicious-enemy/news-story/5fde04e2690857f3a9a3b677dd58c7f0

  21. Rogue designers chasing a “quick buck” are creating and selling face masks with in-built dummies for young children, sparking choking and suffocation concerns.

    The “hazardous” masks are being sold online on Facebook marketplace amid the state’s wild spread of coronavirus and Melbourne’s dreaded plunge into strict stage four lockdown.

    Melbourne mother-of-three and Mamma and the Doc co-author Maria Ligerakis also discovered the homemade masks with an attached dummy and masks made from socks with “loose strings and elastic”.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/hazardous-face-masks-with-attached-dummies-sold-online-as-coronavirus-panic-spreads/news-story/9e6c3e1c6805dec26aa660f861106855

  22. Firefox @ #1473 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 6:40 am

    Yep. The Greens have been calling for a raise to Newstart/JobSeeker for as long as I can remember because it has been obvious for a very long time that the payment is just entrenching poverty and isn’t anywhere near enough for someone to get by on while they’re going through a difficult time.

    Lest you be accused of “green” bias, it should be added that in addition to the Greens calling for a raise in the level, Labor went to the last election promising to “conduct a review” into the adequacy of the Newstart rate.

    Hmm. Now that I’ve just typed it out, I can see that the two policies are chalk and cheese. Exactly how long this review would’ve taken is the core issue I guess, since all the groundwork has already been done by ACOSS, the ACTU, the BCA(!), and other groups. In fact given how much work these groups have already done on the issue, it seems bizarre that Labor would start a whole new enquiry into the issue.

  24. Bob Brown should nominate Joel Fitzgibbon for life membership of the Greens Party.

    Without Joels support, the Greens would have no environmental policy space and a much lower primary vote.

  25. Danama Papers @ #1574 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 10:56 am

    Firefox @ #1473 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 6:40 am

    Yep. The Greens have been calling for a raise to Newstart/JobSeeker for as long as I can remember because it has been obvious for a very long time that the payment is just entrenching poverty and isn’t anywhere near enough for someone to get by on while they’re going through a difficult time.

    Lest you be accused of “green” bias, it should be added that in addition to the Greens calling for a raise in the level, Labor went to the last election promising to “conduct a review” into the adequacy of the Newstart rate.

    Hmm. Now that I’ve just typed it out, I can see that the two policies are chalk and cheese. Exactly how long this review would’ve taken is the core issue I guess, since all the groundwork has already been done by ACOSS, the ACTU, the BCA(!), and other groups. In fact given how much work these groups have already done on the issue, it seems bizarre that Labor would start a whole new enquiry into the issue.

    The dolt Bowen and Bill Shorten did immeasurable damage to their reputations with that policy.

  26. lizzie @ #1527 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 8:02 am

    The Watsons Bay Boutique Hotel in the city’s eastern suburbs has been fined $5000 for multiple breaches, including failing to follow its own COVID-19 Safety Plan.

    Keerist Almighty! $5000 is probably less than a day’s takings at a place like that. There needs to be another couple of zeroes added to that, plus automatic cancellation of its liquor and gaming licenses.

    Otherwise they just factor in the $5000 fine and carry on with business as usual.

  28. lizzie @ #1561 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 10:28 am

    Hmmm.

    @camybobany
    ·
    6m
    Replying to @noplaceforsheep

    I noticed flights from Sydney to Cairns have also been cancelled. I was shocked to hear that Domestic Flights do not have to provide passenger details to States who are trying to track contacts. Apparently Fed gov has been asked repeatedly to change this and they haven’t.

    You might find out where the Liberals, Nats, LNP and their mates are going.

  31. Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    ·
    8m
    Officials have refused this morning to provide a complete list of the aged care facilities currently battling outbreaks. Brendan Murphy says they can provide a list to the Senate committee in camera, but the facilities are worried about reputational damage #COVID19Vic

  34. pHRed
    7 day ave showing US cases dropping off. The cynic might point out this is happening just as the case numbers from hospitals are being fed to the HHS instead of CDC.

    Happy coincidence.

  35. Dear @RichardMarlesMP re today's @PressClubAust address, why not fix massive taxpayer waste in Defence and dubious deals like this by @FahyMichelle: https://t.co/Yj0hi7vGX8 (ps, submarines are a gargantuan white elephant)— Michael West (@MichaelWestBiz) August 4, 2020

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/family-ties-defence-contracts-go-to-company-linked-to-wife-of-former-army-chief/

    The turnip Marles will however no doubt put everyone listening to sleep.

  36. Rex
    The dolt Bowen and Bill Shorten did immeasurable damage to their reputations with that policy.?

    Give it a rest Rex, you seem to have all the answers but the Greens are actually IMPOTENT!.
    i.e not having the power or ability to change or improve a situation:

  37. ‘ BREAKING: Daniel Andrews says people who are self-isolating are no longer allowed to go out for exercise, it comes after ADF did 3000 door knocks and found more than 800 people weren’t at home in Victoria’- twitter
    Also notice a massive $4000+ fine for lockdown breaches.

  39. The fines stuff is a chimera without knowing how much collection has been achieved and what they are they doing about enforcement.

    The sense is many of those fined will not be in a position to pay them.

  40. Spare the goats, toss these cretins into the volcano.

    In the last week, we’ve seen a trend, an emergence if you like, of groups of people – small groups, but nonetheless concerning groups – who classify themselves as sovereign citizens – whatever that might mean – people who don’t think the law applies to them.

    We’ve seen them at checkpoints baiting police, not providing a name and address.

    On at least four occasions in the last week, we’ve had to smash the windows of cars and pull people out to provide details because they weren’t adhering to the Chief Health Officer guidelines, they weren’t providing their name and address

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/aug/04/australia-coronavirus-live-update-victoria-stage-4-lockdown-curfew-melbourne-jobs-nsw-qld-covid-19-latest-news

  41. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 11:27 am

    I read the article that you linked to.

    Exactly what is the problem?

  42. Close Observer says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 10:49 am
    “We have all he power and might of the Federal Govt available to take this virus on but instead they sit back and take every opportunity to smear Dan Andrews who is working his guts out to control it.”

    1. In the current circumstances it is the States that have all the power. The Federal Government can’t do much unless formally requested by the States.

    2. Can’t say I have seen any sledging of the Andrews Government by the Morrison Government. All requests for support have been met quickly.

  43. If the Greens were to indicate to their supporters that they should pref the LNP they would lose most of their PV. So directing prefs to Labor serves the goals of the Greens. The effect of their rolling day to day campaigning however is to drive primary votes away from Labor towards the LNP. The Greens, in pursuing their own sectarian interest, advance the political success of the LNP.

    No doubt whatsoever about any of that.

  44. Spare the goats, toss these cretins into the volcano.

    The Social Contract isnt a hard concept to grasp. You give up some freedoms to avoid complete chaos that descends society into a place where life it nasty, brutish and short. Human history has always been such. It defines its success. It underpins civilisation.

    It is not rocket science FFS.

    The volcano is too good for these numpties.

  46. A long discussion on Covid-19.

    Since the pandemic began, Dr Grenfell – the director of health of biosecurity business at CSIRO – has led a team of around 50 scientists working to develop potential vaccines.

    Though his team has celebrated breakthroughs and the mission to find a vaccine has heralded pioneering scientific feats, the former Natimuk GP was pragmatic about the situation Australia finds itself in.
    …
    “It’s important to understand that (surges in cases) may repeat again until we have much better control measures than social distancing and public health measures. That’s pretty sobering.”

    Isolation is the most significant preventative measure people can take against the potential spread of the coronavirus, Dr Grenfell emphasised.

    https://www.mailtimes.com.au/story/6847409/were-in-for-a-rocky-road-disease-expert-bares-ugly-covid-19-truth/?cs=17267

  47. Simon Katich says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 11:25 am

    “7 day ave showing US cases dropping off. The cynic might point out this is happening just as the case numbers from hospitals are being fed to the HHS instead of CDC.

    Happy coincidence.”

    The US 3-day moving average topped out on 17 Jul so it’s unsurprising that the 7-day is now falling following the 3-day down.

  48. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 11:51 am

    “Nothing if you’re one who looks past conflict of interest matters and nepotism.”

    Except neither of those are a problem as stated in the article.

  50. Non says:
    Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 11:47 am

    “The effect of their rolling day to day campaigning however is to drive primary votes away from Labor towards the LNP.”

    The Greens saying that the ALP isn’t Green or Progressive enough is creating LNP voters?

    Because the LNP is Greener and more Progressive than the ALP?

    I don’t see it. Sorry, it’s an illogical chain of events.

    The ALP doesn’t win enough votes from centre-right swinging voters who aren’t likely to vote Greens.

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