The West Australian has a poll today from Painted Dog Research showing 34% out of 837 respondents from the state favour secession for Western Australia. However, the utility of this finding is limited by the report’s failure to offer any insight as to how many of the other 66% were actively opposed and how many uncommitted, if indeed the latter was provided as an option. The poll also finds “close to three-quarters” think the federal government has put the needs of the eastern states ahead of Western Australia during the pandemic. I wouldn’t normally consider such a poll front page news, but it’s past time for a new general discussion thread, so here it is.
There is also the following:
• Since Tuesday’s post from Adrian Beaumont on the extraordinary finding of a Reid Research poll of voting intention in New Zealand, the other regular pollster in the country, Colmar Brunton, has produced a somewhat more modest result: Labour 53%, National 32%, Greens 5%, ACT New Zealand 4.8% and New Zealand First 2%. It also finds Jacinda Ardern with a 54-20 lead over the new National leader, Judith Collins, as preferred prime minister. There’s an interesting discussion on polling in the country, the record of which is apparently very good, on Radio New Zealand’s The Detail program.
• As noted in my popular dedicated post on the subject, elections will be held today for two seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council. One of these at least, for the Launceston region seat of Rosevears, includes both Liberal and Labor candidates, and might be seen as some sort of barometer for the state’s new-ish Premier, Peter Gutwein, who has been recording exceptionally strong poll ratings amid the COVID-19 crisis. Live coverage of the count will, as ever, commence here at 6pm.
Non,
I agree, I don’t hear the greens talk about CC much, which is kinda amazing. I actually think the modern greens problem is they’ve lost their center and don’t really have a driving force like what they had with Bob Brown and to a much lesser extent Milne.
They are a political party and they seem to mostly about self preservation rather than outcomes. If they were more about results, they would be trying to make a deal for a coalition with Labor or at least to agree on areas not to fight over and mutual support against the real enemy.
The fact this isn’t happening just proves that they are political.
Now it’s fair to criticize what I’ve said with the retort about the greens being entitled to try and grow their party. But looking at the climate change future I think they have got to be realistic. The greens becoming the new labor is more about vanity than reality the real politik is to fight along with labor with all it’s many flaws, against the real enemy the forces of darkness (LNP).
People want to vote for the environment. The greens facilitate that. Labor could have those votes it if fostered an environmentally focused faction inside it’s party.
But Albo….
Nonsays:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 11:47 am
. The effect of their rolling day to day campaigning however is to drive primary votes away from Labor towards the LNP.
______________
I don’t think there’s even the slightest evidence for that. The biggest electoral threat that the Greens pose to the ALP is the seats they directly take off them in both the upper and lower houses at the state and federal level. It’s not likely the ALP will ever be able to achieve a senate majority as long as the Greens are around.
No official word on todays numbers but this just hit the twitterverse fan.
https://twitter.com/abcadelaide/status/1290462612526977029?s=20
2 more cases in SA today.
F.
ABC
Bucephalus @ #1600 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 11:53 am
Yes, yes, nothing to see here move on… *touches nose*
The rise of the LNP primary vote in WA and QLD reflects in part the impact of Green campaigning, which has driven support away from Labor to the Right. The votes lost by Labor in those States have not gone to the Gs. They have gone to the Tories. This is an inexorable result of Greenist wedging and pro-Lib tagging.
One consequence of this is that none of the things the Gs purport to subscribe to will ever be enacted.
And the Advertiser runs an article by the young Bolt wannabe Caleb Bond on why we shouldnt strengthen restrictions despite the new cases.
The Gs, quite understandably, accept no responsibility for any of this. They are happy in their boots. But the trouble is the harder they try the worse things get.
We are fucked….in large part because the Gs have succeeded in wrecking Labor’s base.
Non @ #1611 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 12:29 pm
Labor has wrecked its base by yielding vital environment policy space to the Green.
The Green is a product of Labors own decision-making process.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 12:23 pm
“Yes, yes, nothing to see here move on… *touches nose*”
Just to avoid any confusion- do they have to float or do they have to drown when you are proving their guilt?
If only we had a federal ICAC to watch over conflict of interest matters and nepotism.
On a separate issue I note the ‘resignation’ of ICARE CEO John Nagle.
Non says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 12:26 pm
“The rise of the LNP primary vote in WA and QLD reflects in part the impact of Green campaigning, which has driven support away from Labor to the Right.”
Can you explain how that process works because it’s got me stumped.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 12:32 pm
Non @ #1611 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 12:29 pm
The Gs, quite understandably, accept no responsibility for any of this. They are happy in their boots. But the trouble is the harder they try the worse things get.
We are fucked….in large part because the Gs have succeeded in wrecking Labor’s base.
Labor has wrecked its base by yielding vital environment policy space to the Green.
The Green is a product of Labors own decision-making process.
And the wedge continues.
Come on Bucephalus balance it up. Give us something about how Labor do what the Greens tell them to.
SA Health has correctly called on people who attended three locations to self isolate for 14 days.
How many of those people have sick leave or holiday leave available to them to self isolate without financial hardship ? How many are casual workers who will be fucked financially if they do stay at home ?
Over coming days more and more people outside of Victoria will be requested to self isolate due to positive covid cases being identified as attending certain shops, hotels etc .
By limiting paid pandemic leave to Victoria Morrison has put, once again, financial considerations ahead of health considerations.
Door, close, horse, bolted.
Time out from Covid. John Dawkins was wrong.
https://johnmenadue.com/paul-barratt-we-need-a-freestanding-trade-department/?mc_cid=fb6c0e46ba&mc_eid=703ae2af44
Has Morrison got around to sanctioning one of his MPs for suggesting a state premier be jailed for 25 years?
If not, why not? Why is he allowing his MPs to undermine the coordinated non-partisan efforts to deal with this pandemic? Or is he condoning it? Profiting from it and secretly smiling at the damage it is causing?
How hard is it to condemn or sanction such outrageous statements? Not even a ‘it was out of line and he should retract and apologise’. Nothing.
He isnt a leader. He is a political blaggard.
Leigh Sales is expressing indignation that Dan Andrews has not made himself available for an interview on 7.30.
Apart from the fact that he makes himself “available” for the Press every day when he has something new to say, this indignation was only justifiable when the 7.30 report was a major player in Oz politics.
frednk says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 12:47 pm
“Come on Bucephalus balance it up. Give us something about how Labor do what the Greens tell them to.”
“There will be no carbon tax under a Government I lead.”
How’d that work out for you?
Simon Katich
Perhaps he has not because he agrees with the idiot ?
Bucephalus @ #1611 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 12:38 pm
The more visible the Greens are, the more voters think that Labor will have to accede to their (the Greens) demands if they(Labor) get into government. Many voters who are not fully on board with the full suite of Greens policies are uneasy about this and hence vote LNP, even if they agree with Labor on lots of Labor’s actual policies.
This is all pretty simple – I’m surprised you couldn’t figure it out for yourself.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 1:06 pm
frednk says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 12:47 pm
“Come on Bucephalus balance it up. Give us something about how Labor do what the Greens tell them to.”
“There will be no carbon tax under a Government I lead.”
How’d that work out for you?
Yes that is excellent example. It was a market mechanism, the Liberals are supposed to support markets, but principle abandoned, the Liberals and Greens turned it into a very successful wedge.
lizzie @ #1617 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 1:04 pm
I mentioned this last evening on here but I was a little more direct: I said that Leigh was miffed Andrews wouldn’t appear on her pissy little program.
ajm
I remember. 😆
This is what the RW refuse to acknowledge.
ajm @ #1620 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 1:13 pm
If people think the LNP is the lesser evil in that scenario then Labor hasn’t adequately prosecuted its arguments against LNP policies. Granted that field is stacked against them, but still can’t blame the Greens for that.
Nonsays:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 12:26 pm
The rise of the LNP primary vote in WA and QLD reflects in part the impact of Green campaigning, which has driven support away from Labor to the Right. The votes lost by Labor in those States have not gone to the Gs. They have gone to the Tories. This is an inexorable result of Greenist wedging and pro-Lib tagging.
________________________
No, QLD and to a lesser degree WA have long been conservative states with a bias towards conservative parties.
ajm @ #1626 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 1:16 pm
Leigh can discuss revenge tactics with Neil Mitchell.
[Research from the Burnet Institute, published in the Medical Journal of Australia on Tuesday, found the state’s response to the second wave of COVID-19 averted 9000 to 37,000 cases between July 2-30.]
Can the same body work out how many cases the state’s response in May and June caused?
Border farce: How an infected security guard convinced officials he was a ‘diplomat’ and drove home to Toowoomba
https://inqld.com.au/news/2020/08/04/border-farce-how-an-infected-security-card-convinced-officials-he-was-a-diplomat/
Perhaps Leigh Sales should get Tim Smith on to explain all of his positive contributions to the fight against the virus.
Trouble is she’d need 29 minutes of fill in for the rest of the program!
lizzie@12.52pm
Foreign Affairs and Trade is the one “super-department” that has survived more or less in the same form since Hawke’s “reforms” of 1987 (having also subsequently absorbed AusAID, I believe). ScoMo has tried to create a few more super-departments recently but, based on past experience, it will be difficult for any or all of them to persist beyond the next change of government.
Big, permanent departments such as I believe exist in the U.K. are a good idea. The endless splitting and re-almagamating that has long gone on in Canberra is unbelievably wasteful. Some bipartisanship in this area would perhaps help.
In that context, I had always assumed that Foreign Affairs and Trade was travelling ok. I have to say that Menadue’s arguments against it seem to be ones for the cognoscenti: they didn’t do much to convince me.
I have friends and acquaintances in the Canberra public service and as far as I can see the only reorganisation that ever had some people really jumping up and down was the creation of Home Affairs, and that appears to have died down now.
Permit system for Victoria – I was right Andrews really is Mugabe.
This will lead to civil unrest and rightly so.
History in time
Do you live in Victoria?
frednk @ #1621 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 11:14 am
That there is some briefly/non sequitur/non level of disconnect from reality.
Shellbell says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 1:24 pm
[Research from the Burnet Institute, published in the Medical Journal of Australia on Tuesday, found the state’s response to the second wave of COVID-19 averted 9000 to 37,000 cases between July 2-30.]
Can the same body work out how many cases the state’s response in May and June caused?
Or perhaps how the pressure from the federal government to relax restrictions undermined the efforts to limit movements.
The meme “Chairman Dan” will forever hang over the Liberals like a fish rotting form the head.
Danama Papers says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 1:41 pm
frednk @ #1621 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 11:14 am
the Liberals and Greens turned it into a very successful wedge.
That there is some briefly/non sequitur/non level of disconnect from reality.
I think Credlin has said all that needs to be said on the subject.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/carbon-tax-just-brutal-politics-credlin
#weatheronPB. There are reports of snow to low levels in Victoria and Tasmania.
Danama Papers @ #1634 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 1:41 pm
‘I’ve called Huon now as a very nicely methodical and decent-sized scrutineering sample sent through to me (not from ALP) has Seidel’s (ALP) lead over Robert Armstrong (tory) increasing on preferences, mainly off a very strong flow from Caruana (Greens)’ Kevin Bonham.
Bloody Greens.
meher baba
I found a further para made a good point. When a minister supposedly represents two contradictory outcomes, then makes a ‘political’ decision to please lobbyists?
On Home Affairs, there didn’t seem to be enough pushback from Labor and the MSM just seemed to accept it. People who had worked within the sections (example, TPOF) pointed out many problems with the slow accumulation of departments, until they finally melted under one PotatoFuhrer.
frednk @ #1635 Tuesday, August 4th, 2020 – 1:42 pm
And sadly, for many it will stick like shit to a blanket for Dan Andrews.
victoria
I think HiT is from Qld?
frednk says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 1:14 pm
“It was a market mechanism”
No, it was a fixed price – no market mechanism.
SK
Speaking of those Adelaide covid-unsafe locations, interesting to read the court reports on those people who allegedly circulated in the community contrary to isolation requirements.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-03/coronavirus-border-restriction-flouters-face-court-in-sa/12517968
Of the four mentioned, three have very anglo-saxon sounding names, and there is no mention that any of them are not Australian citizens. This highlights what Cat and I were discussing this morning. For a covid-lockdown to work, financial and/or material support has to be sufficient for ALL people here to survive the period without moving around for work or money. That includes Australian born poor as well as low-skilled immigrants.
It makes no difference to the outcome which group breaks the rules. It only changes the targeting of the next irrelevant rant from Andrew Bolt.
We seem to have missed the forecast snow in Hobart (other than quite a fall on Mt Wellington, which is nothing out of the ordinary) But it’s really cold and miserable.
It is interesting.
The Greens justification for the Green/Liberals wedge is always in terms of the number of voters that that do not follow politics closely enough to work out what the Greens actually represent.
[Or perhaps how the pressure form the federal government to relax restrictions undermined the efforts to limit movements.]
Premier Andrews will never concede (and rightly so) that he buckled to any such pressure. He is a strong leader.
To save you listening to the drone.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 1:48 pm
frednk says:
Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 1:14 pm
“It was a market mechanism”
No, it was a fixed price – no market mechanism.
As I posted above, Credlin has pretty much said all that needs to be said about the whole affair. I am well aware of he bullshit and miss information used to justify it all. I am sure there will be a Green poster willing to step up to the plate and run it all again.