Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Scott Morrison records another personal best approval rating, as Newspoll maintains its stable-to-a-fault record on voting intention.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, unchanged on three weeks ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 42%, Labor up a point to 35%, the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison records another personal best on leader ratings, his approval up two to 68% and disapproval down two to 27%, while Anthony Albanese is now at 42% on both approval and disapproval, which are respectively up by one and two. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 58-26, out from 56-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1521.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

810 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. GG

    Thanks for the link. Powerful stuff. Good to see that Pence is taking some well-earned collateral.

    When Trump was first elected a shedled of psyches (a) diagnosed Trump as suffering from a narcissus complex and (b) predicted that as he lost control his personality would disintegrate.
    Put (c) dementia into the mix and we are in for an unpredictable few months. The fortunate thing is that the US military is in no mood to obey truly stupid orders and would probably mutiny if needed so to do. (This is not good for the long term future of democracy, IMO.)

    The Repugs must be desperate. Will they organize someone to assassinate him?

  2. #CorruptMorrison

    Just when millions of Australians need some certainty to make purchasing or investment decisions, Morrison is hiding its Jobkeeper intentions until after the Eden-Monaro by-election.

  3. boerwar @ #151 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 9:46 am

    GG

    Thanks for the link. Powerful stuff. Good to see that Pence is taking some well-earned collateral.

    When Trump was first elected a shedled of psyches (a) diagnosed Trump as suffering from a narcissus complex and (b) predicted that as he lost control his personality would disintegrate.
    Put (c) dementia into the mix and we are in for an unpredictable few months. The fortunate thing is that the US military is in no mood to obey truly stupid orders and would probably mutiny if needed so to do. (This is not good for the long term future of democracy, IMO.)

    The Repugs must be desperate. Will they organize someone to assassinate him?

    Only 18 weeks till the Election.

  5. The LNP take up Western Australia’s petrol market watch idea.

    @JoshFrydenberg tweets

    We’re giving Australians more power to compare & switch energy providers to lower bills by applying the Consumer Data Right to the energy sector.

    This will encourage more competition, lower prices & innovative products & services. @AngusTaylorMP

    Morehttps://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/more-power-to-compare-and-switch-energy-providers/

  6. Sorry last post for a while.

    @MrDenmore tweets

    @zdaniel Because that’s what they do. Sky ‘News’ is not news. Their ‘personalities’ are not journalists. They do not work to any professional ethic. Their job is to manufacture outrage and hatred through lies and deliberate distortion. They need to be stripped of their broadcast licence.

  7. Porter investigating Dyson like Porter investigated Cash, McKenzie, Taylor and Robert?
    How is Porter going with investigating himself for the hundreds of Robdeaths he helped inflict?
    How is Porter going with investigating himself for his role in an illegal debt collection scam involving north of a three quarters of a billion?
    Based on the track record of the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments, the probability that Dyson will be prosecuted for breaking any laws is precisely zero.
    If Porter sools the AFP on Dyson then, based on their differential track record for pro-Government inquiries, nothing at all will happen for 2 years, Morrison will be unable to answer any questions on the matter because it is under investigation, and the AFP will then announce something like Dyson refused to answer their questions.

    Note: Dyson is innocent until proven guilty and has 100% denied that he did anything wrong.

    #CorruptMorrison

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/28/dyson-heydon-sexual-harassment-allegations-to-be-investigated-by-attorney-general

  9. “Economic growth accompanied by worsening social outcomes is not success, it is failure.” — New Zealand Prime Minister @JacindaArdern,

    For the Morrison government, this is obviously not true. Their only desire is to punish. Their vision of a perfect world is a hierarchy where the rich rule, and wealth is virtue.

  10. Liberals still ahead? The Australian voter fits the Classical Greek definition of Idiot.
    Labor will never win office until circumstance forces people to think collectively instead of selfish individualism.

  12. boerwar @ #151 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 9:46 am

    (This is not good for the long term future of democracy, IMO.)

    How does the long-term future of democracy benefit from blind obedience to a deranged (or not) head of state? Democratically elected or not, they’re still deranged and not using their position to support the cause of democracy.

    Seems like democracy would be best served by everybody disobeying such a leader.

  15. The idiocy of people is not merely contained to the USA.

    I was listening to the MMM Eddie Macguire breakfast program this morning.

    The question surrounded the attitude of people regarding covid.

    One caller who sounded like a middle aged man said that he never believed the hype 0f covid from the get go.

    He doesn’t believe any level of govt
    And this latest concern and testing blitz is a waste of time. Cos according to him there are hardly any people in hospital at present and only one person in ICU.

    So What is the big deal.

    Is there a crime against extreme stupidity and ignorance.

  17. BK @ #58 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 5:29 am

    The SMH editorial brands the CovidSafe app as a terrible failure.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/much-hyped-contact-tracing-app-a-terrible-failure-20200628-p5570h.html

    :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

    History has recorded the names of all those who saw this coming. It has also recorded the name (singular) of someone who claimed that this thing was a “vital tool in the fight against coronavirus”.

    Is it possible to overdose on schadenfreude?

  18. Meanwhile the weather here in my part of woods has been very pleasant over the past month generally. Sunny fresh days.
    But this morning was bloody cold!
    Lol!

  19. Guardian

    Asked about the future of the JobSeeker and JobKeeper payments – under review this month ahead of their September sunset clause – Mr Morrison told 2GB’s Ray Hadley he believed the JobSeeker payment was providing a disincentive for people to find work.

    “What we have to be worried about now is that we can’t allow the JobSeeker payment to become an impediment to people [going] out doing work, you know, getting extra shifts,” he said.

    “We are getting a lot of anecdotal feedback from small businesses and large businesses where some of them are finding it hard to get people to come and take shifts, because they’re on these these higher levels of payment.”

    You see, unless people are starving, the lazy bastards won’t make the effort.
    Sheez!

  20. ‘a r says:
    Monday, June 29, 2020 at 10:12 am

    boerwar @ #151 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 9:46 am

    (This is not good for the long term future of democracy, IMO.)

    How does the long-term future of democracy benefit from blind obedience to a deranged (or not) head of state? Democratically elected or not, they’re still deranged and not using their position to support the cause of democracy.

    Seems like democracy would be best served by everybody disobeying such a leader.’

    IMO, the long view is what matters.

    The US Military does not meddle in the affairs of the Civil. Any precedent set now, while the Civil are doing bad things, becomes a standing invitation to future military peeps to intervene for ‘the good of the people’. There are no rules for what such military might interpret as being for ‘the good of the people.’

    IMO, the military staying out of civil affairs is a critical principle at a time when US democracy is under extremely severe threat. IMO, the US military leadership has behaved much, much better than civil leadership in the time of Trump.

  21. It’s strange that there is public money to subsidise private, often foreign owned, profit making media while public broadcasting is being gradually destroyed. 🙁

  22. A rational assessment of the likely economic impact of the virus plus the longevity of the LNP Government suggests that another win by the LNP is unlikely. If the LNP were to win would the ALP finally accept it needs significant change to make it more electable?

  25. Zerlo

    Unfortunately I daresay there are a lot more like him out there.

    The likes of Facebook have a lot to answer for the spreading of misinformation which is lapped up by those who lack critical thinking skills.

    If I had the opportunity to respond to this caller, I would have asked okay you dont trust anything governments say.

    But why would huge corporations such as Disney who have barely ever closed for even a day, have closed for months.

    Or the airlines who are mothballing planes due to pandemic.

    And lastly I would say since you dont trust our govts and our health authorities, you should not ever see the need for treatment in a hospital for any condition, cos they cant be trusted to treat any disease on his behalf.

  26. I do know of one person (who all his relatives agree is lazy) who used to have a weekend gig and lost it, so was able to apply for Jobkeeper, whereupon he sank gratefully into a life of playing games on the Internet.

    Meanwhile, his wife has a job to sustain them. No children.

    Jobkeeper didn’t change his life habits. He was always reluctant to make any effort.

  28. Zerlo @ #167 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 8:20 am

    @Victoria

    It’s called Selfish bastards.

    And should be a horrible crime.

    It’s not so much selfish, as having no interest outside his own little piece of the World.

    He’s probably barely aware of what’s happened and happening in other parts of the World.

  29. Presentation quality, wall mountable photograph of a smiling Scott Morrison.

    Price – negotiable. Contact Mr. W. Bowe C/- Poll Bludgers Inc.

    Enquiries regarding autographed copies should be directed to –

  31. @Victoria

    I work with Department of Health on COVID cases, externally. (IT Support Wise), and we do get calls on the COVID crises, so while can’t reveal, they are they are actively wanting things quickly done, incase things get series, sometimes with in 20 minutes.

  33. Expletive deleted…

    On the poll numbers, Scott Morrison said the numbers he was most interested in over the weekend were 40-22 (which was the result of the Sharks-Manly game, in favour of the prime minister’s team).

  34. Danama,

    Only operationally.

    What the app did was focus the community’s collective mind on a positive response to the danger facing us all. People always like to be seen to be doing something worthwhile, even if it proves not to be the case in the end.

    Politically, Morrison pulled off another publicity coup and probably assisted him in achieving his currently high popularity ratings.

  35. Confessions @ #140 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 9:33 am

    Telstra Health? What could possibly go wrong! 😆

    Well, after 6 months (and counting) waiting for our Telstra land line to be repaired after the bushfires, I could probably list a few things … including how they continued to bill us for a service they acknowledged they couldn’t provide. They claimed that for technical reasons they couldn’t stop the bills being generated … until we got the Ombudsman involved, and then suddenly they could.

    But still no actual telephone 🙁

  38. On the poll numbers, Scott Morrison said the numbers he was most interested in over the weekend were 40-22 (which was the result of the Sharks-Manly game

    He can get F’ed.
    They have beaten the Sea Eagles only 3 times in over a decade. So f off.
    And it was at Gosford. FFS. The team is Manly and they should play at Brooky.
    And that bloody Bluetongue whatever stadium destroyed one of the most picturesque cricket grounds in the state.

  41. Greensborough Growler @ #184 Monday, June 29th, 2020 – 8:34 am

    Danama,

    Only operationally.

    What the app did was focus the community’s collective mind on a positive response to the danger facing us all. People always like to be seen to be doing something worthwhile, even if it proves not to be the case in the end.

    Politically, Morrison pulled off another publicity coup and probably assisted him in achieving his currently high popularity ratings.

    Indeed. Good politics, lousy policy.

  43. Anyone seen the Wisconsin poll by Trafalgar? Trump narrowly ahead.

    Not a highly rated pollster and I think it is a GOP polling firm but they do interesting polling – very different methods. Including asking who the person thinks their neighbours will vote for. An attempt to capture the shy Trump voters. Also, they estimate differently who they think will turn out based on the belief Trump voters are people who normally stay at home. This worked in 2016 (they were one of the more accurate polls) because everyone else had assumed the demographic turnout in 2016 would match 2012.
    But this is 2020 and I dont rate the ‘shy Trump voter’ meme this time ’round.

  44. Barney wrote:

    Is there a subject that Bushfire Bill doesn’t know more about than someone who has committed their life to the study of?

    Enquiring minds that read widely often have ideas on things that others deem to be “settled”.

    If you’re referring to my comments on the Newspoll:

    ● Everyone got it wrong last election.

    ● Only one polling organization has returned to the field in any systematic way.

    ● They implicitly claim accuracy by publishing their results.

    ● They (or their defenders) claim to have changed their methodology.

    ● But the new methodology hasn’t been tested by any kind of election.

    ● Add in literally unprecedented bushfires, viruses, recessions, vast unemployment, and recent changes in the media landscape as potential game changers in political analysis.

    ☆ Given that polling advertises itself as a model of unknown future election results, how can the new polling methodology be conclusively defended, in the context of unprecedented phenomena since last election time and the failure of polling last time, without a real election to back it up? And even then will one sample be enough?

    ☆ So why would anyone trust any poll’s results to be any more accurate than, say, +/- 5% ?

    ☆ An appeal to authority is pointless when the last real test of that authority resulted in failure.

    If Barney’s referring to my comments last night regarding the virus and its purported discovery in 15 month old Barcelona sewage samples – which has been used to argue against the “Originated in China” conventional wisdom…

    ● The claim was that the study showed virus (SARS- CoV-2) in Barcelona in 2018. This was just wrong. The earliest date claimed by the scientists was “March 2019”.

    ● The scientists themselves make no comment on where the virus originated, only that they believe they found it in Barcelona, March 2019.

    ● It’s Chinese state media (propaganda) that claims this. Anywhere else you see this claim, it’s ultimately derived from Chinese propaganda.

    ● As samples from a 23 month period were examined (Jan 2018-Dec 2019) and were found for only one day in that entire time, the question of “false positive” is a perfectly reasonable one.

    ● This is especially in the context of the virulence of the virus: the ease with which it spreads exponentially unless active isolation countermeasures are taken immediately.

    ● The absence of countermeasures in Europe until February 2020 should therefore have seen megadeaths there over the previous year.

    ● One thing we DO know about COVID-19 is that one case will turn into thousands, easily, in a matter of weeks.

    ● Megadeaths, or even kilodeaths, even excess deaths or illnesses out of the usual variations (eg. COVID-19 mistaken for flu) were either not seen or not claimed during the time period, adding weight to the “March 2019 false positive” idea.

    ☆ The study, while no dishonesty is inferred, should be taken in its proper context: it goes against almost everything that we DO know about SARS-CoV-2.

    You don’t need to be a genius or an expert to make either the “polling” case or the “virus” case above.

    It’s easier, and quicker, to snarkily accuse someone of touting themself as an “expert on everything” than to apply your mind to the actual problem.

  47. Danama,
    If the ALP was effective, they would start asking all Australians to have a look a their phone at they expensive app that is killing their battery and slowing their phone down.
    They could link that app to the government, all shiny and good looking but not very effective.
    Then just start listing gov failures.

  48. The malaise of rugby league is exemplified by Manly playing at Brooke

    It all started with the Northern Eagles BS.

    But you could go back to how Manly tried to use the Pepsi logo on their jersey. Red, Blue and Maroon? WTF? And losing the Jets. Downhill from there.

    As a little tacker going to brooky was one of the scariest things I remember. And I was a Manly supporter.

  50. Given some of the rather iffy characters associated with Manly in the last few decades, not the Penns, Manly should simply be dissolved, Brookvale sold off for development and North Sydney reinstated

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