The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, unchanged on three weeks ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady at 42%, Labor up a point to 35%, the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation down one to 3%. Scott Morrison records another personal best on leader ratings, his approval up two to 68% and disapproval down two to 27%, while Anthony Albanese is now at 42% on both approval and disapproval, which are respectively up by one and two. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 58-26, out from 56-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1521.
Just for the record, they neglected to ask me and I don’t approve. Of anything or anyone.
Same old,same old. Sun still shining out of Smokos arse. Same braindead voters.
Ugh. More of the One Man Band Scott Morrison show to come.
Pre-print “Sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater anticipates the occurrence of COVID-19 cases” :
– https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v1.full.pdf
This work is from University of Barcelona (often considered the best in Spain).
Abstract:
Note that the suggestion that the virus was in Spain rather earlier than the first imported cases were detected in fact comes from another pre-print “Excess cases of influenza suggest an earlier start to the coronavirus epidemic in Spain than official figures tell us: an analysis of primary care electronic medical records from over 6 million people from Catalonia”:
– https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.09.20056259v1.full.pdf
Abstract:
C@t
All looking for Smoko to lead them to the promised land. How deluded they are. Im sure its going so well for Liberal voters over the last 7 years.
Scott Morrison has posted record approval ratings while the Coalition maintains its narrow lead over Labor nationally as both parties enter the final week of campaigning for the by-election in the NSW seat of Eden-Monaro.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows a continued strengthening in popular support for the Prime Minister.
But the government has yet to reap any considerable electoral benefit, with the Coalition’s primary vote remaining unchanged at 42 per cent while the two-party preferred vote in the Coalition’s favour also remains unchanged at 51-49. The poll follows a string of branch-stacking and Chinese spy scandals that have rocked the NSW and Victorian state divisions of the Labor Party over the past fortnight.
But the federal Labor Party appeared to have been quarantined from any fallout with a lift in its primary vote to 35 per cent.
Mr Morrison’s dominance remains unchallenged with the Prime Minister posting his highest net approval ratings since taking the leadership in August 2018.
Approval of his performance as leader rose two points to 68 per cent while dissatisfaction levels fell a corresponding two points to 27 per cent, confirming a trend of broad support from both Liberal and Labor voters.
Mr Morrison now has the highest approval ratings of any prime minister since the early period of Kevin Rudd’s leadership. No other leader since Newspoll began in the mid-80s has had such a sustained period of support at these levels.
Mr Morrison has also increased his margin over Anthony Albanese as the preferred prime minister, lifting two points to 58 per cent against an unchanged 26 per cent for the Labor leader. Sixteen per cent of voters would not commit to backing either.
This marks a dramatic reversal of political fortune for Mr Morrison since the outbreak of coronavirus. Following the summer bushfires and claims he had mishandled the crisis, Mr Morrison fell behind the Labor leader as the preferred prime minister for the first time with many in the party fearing his authority as leader would not recover. Mr Albanese, who last week signalled an about-face on Labor’s climate and energy policies by claiming it would not support a return of the national energy guarantee or the clean energy target, appears also to have been inoculated against the state Labor Party scandals.
The Labor leader’s approval ratings lifted a point to 42 per cent. This was countered by a two-point rise in disapproval but Mr Albanese is still in net positive territory.
But there is a large group of voters who have yet to make up their mind about the Labor leader, with 16 per cent uncommitted when asked whether they were satisfied or dissatisfied with his performance as opposition leader. This compares to 5 per cent of voters refusing to take a position on Mr Morrison’s performance as prime minister. The latest Newspoll, conducted between Wednesday and Saturday, covers a three-week period.
It shows the Greens have lost a point, falling to 11 per cent, reflecting the consistent flow of left-wing votes between Labor and Greens.
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation lost ground, falling back a point to 3 per cent, leaving the right-wing Queensland-based party below its election result.
Steve Bannon edging back onto Trump’s team – Dotard sure needs something to arrest his decline, and counter the devastating Lincoln Project and other NeverTrumper PACS..
“Both Republicans close to Bannon and those who have talked with the president stressed to the Guardian that Bannon has not talked to Trump directly and is not in the mix to return to the White House or the campaign.
Bannon declined to talk on the record for this story.
But allies stressed that the president has started to speak positively of Bannon and likes Bannon’s podcast: a not insignificant development, given Trump’s well-reported tendency to be influenced by conservative media.
“The president has spoken very highly about Steve to a number of people lately,” said one Republican operative who has spoken often to Trump.
The operative added that “there’s no formal or informal role” for Bannon on either the Trump campaign or in the White House but “at the same time the president has spoken very highly of him and likes the show”.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/28/steve-bannon-aim-to-re-enter-circle-trump-influencers-2020-election?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1593345005
steve davis @ #5 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 9:48 pm
The clock is ticking. The easy part was splashing the cash around. The hard part will be clawing it back. Either that, or wearing the Debt and Deficit millstone around HIS neck.
That’s what Kevin Rudd found. So, let’s see how Morrison copes when the shoe is on the other foot. He can’t put off the Budget forever.
51-49?…. Is that all what ScuMo can achieve from Newspoll in spite of two adjustments in favour of the Coalition in the calculation of the 2PP from primary votes, and in spite of the fact that he is permanently on TV during this CoronaCrisis, allegedly giving money for free to (almost) everybody?
Looking forward to see his performance in the 2PP during the snapback!
C@t
If he is anything like the Cons in Britain it will be an age of austerity. And they fucking loved it. Just kept voting them in again and again.
E.G. Theodore,
That’s all well and good but that is evidence for one country only and not proof, one way or the other, that the Novel Coronavirus wasn’t also present in other countries prior to November 2019.
Any Government would be happy to be 51-49 at this point of the election cycle. Add 2 or 3 points to the Coalition if there were a real election.
steve davis @ #10 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 10:03 pm
The Clown King of Britain isn’t faring so well right now, though. Though there’s the ever-present possibility that Labour will shoot themselves in the foot again come the next election, or even before.
Trump, after 14 hours of growing outrage about a Russian ‘bounty’ for Taliban to kill coalition troops in Afghanistan, decides to respond. Does not criticise Russia, does not express any sympathy for the fallen soldiers – instead..
“or wearing the Debt and Deficit millstone around HIS neck”…
I have been looking hard in the NewsCorpse, 9Corp and their-ABC media for any evidence of a relentless campaign against the Coalition Debt-and-Deficit-Disaster, not to speak of the Coalition Recession we are in…. Does anybody still remember that we are in a Recession, already openly admitted by Friedhamburger himself?…. No, you don’t?…. Exactly, no media campaign…. But I bet that you know who Shaoquett Moselmane and Adem Somyurek are, do you?
Steve777 @ #12 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 10:05 pm
There’s many a slip between lip and cup to come though. Where’s the nip and tuck going to come from to pay for the permanent increase to Newstart/JobSeeker, for a start? That being the main reason Labor never went near it as a pre-election policy, the cost to the budget is huge, even though it is a worthy endeavour whose time has surely come.
So, Santa Scott is going to have to become Scrooge Scott at some stage and that’s when his mettle will be tested.
sprocket,
as Trump’s fortunes are nose diving his already psychiatrically critical mental state will fast deteriorate. … I think that in November he may be taken out of the White House in an ambulance….
Alpo
There is the lived experience of unemployment, businesses shuttering, and whole sectors propped up by grudging and shifty government largesse. Let’s reserve judgment until we see the September SnapBack.
Would it do me any good to point out that Newspoll underestimated the flow of preferences to the Coalition at the last election?
Media owned by corporates who love the Liberal Party. Cant expect nothing else from compliant MSM wankers whose journos would be sacked if they didnt tow the Liberal-Great, Labor-Shit line.
“Any Government would be happy to be 51-49 at this point of the election cycle. “…
A government that is giving money to (almost) everybody with no media pointing to any wrongdoing whatever, should be already at 53-54% “at this point of the election cycle”….
It’s probably stating the obvious, but polls mean very little at this stage of a parliamentary term, and even less in the current circumstances. Certainly, Morrison is being given some credit for an effective Covid response, but in truth, the last few months have been the easy bit, governance-wise – the hard bit is managing the recovery, while ensuring there are not further serious outbreaks.
The early evidence suggests that the government might struggle a bit more in the recovery phase. The fact is that conservatives are actually not very good at spending money – it doesn’t sit well with them philosophically, and so they tend to default to shovelling money towards their special interests, rather than anything particularly nation-building. The renovations package is a good example of this.
It’s worth remembering that Kevin Rudd enjoyed stratospheric approval ratings in the initial aftermath of the GFC, but it didn’t do him much good by the time of the next election. We’ll see how popular Morrison remains if by late next year unemployment is still stuck at close to 10%.
Debts and deficits are only problems if they were created under Labor governments or can be blamed on them. Only Labor Governments are held to standards of financial responsibility. On the other hand, throw away $129 billion revenue for tax cuts for big business? No worries. Send $5 billion to a friendly demographic to refund tax they didn’t pay? Go for it. Another $5 billion p.a. to subsidise real estate speculation? Great!
Alpo,
As I said to Steve777, Morrison will have to go from Santa to Scrooge sooner or later, or inflation will explode if he keeps just printing money to hand out and then the Reserve Bank will have no choice but to start raising interest rates to try and tamp it down.
No amount of attempted media cover-ups of the consequences will overwhelm the lived experience.
Orrrrr, Josh Frydenburg and Scott Morrison will have to make some very ‘austere’ cuts to the budget in financially unsustainable areas like, dare I say it, pet Coalition vote preserving policies. 🙂
What difference will it make if it went back to $240 a week? Never shifted a vote from the Liberals for years. Just a group of bloody freeloaders and dole bludgers as far as theyre concerned.
“Would it do me any good to point out that Newspoll underestimated the flow of preferences to the Coalition at the last election?”…..
Would it do me any good to point out that adjustments on the ground of past results tell nothing about the results of a future election? Have you noticed that Newspoll is just about the only pollster that keeps producing voting intentions results for the federal election on a regular basis, whereas most of the others seem to have given up?…. What do they know that both Newspoll and some commentators don’t?
42% Coalition, 35% Labor, 11% Green, 3% One Nation, 9% Someone Else.
I make that to be Labor 2PP = 0+35+9+1+4 = 49.
“Someone Else” comprises those who voted for Palmer and other sundry rogues and ratbags, plus independents. I split them 5:4 to the Coalition.
Alpo, your first question does nothing to justify your inference that the results are loaded in favour of the Coalition, and your second and third don’t make any sense.
Alpo, do keep going. I’m enjoying this.
Two out of three ain’t bad!
WeatheronPB: 12° and light rain in Sydney after a cool and overcast day.
“if he keeps just printing money to hand out”
Hi C@t, I don’t think that ScuMo is printing money, as the Reserve Bank has refused to engage in Quantitative Easing at this stage. The money comes from the usual borrowing…. hence let’s look at the updates on the government debt (surely Murdoch will publish the figures soon, don’t you think?…. [insert sarcastic smirk]).
“No amount of attempted media cover-ups of the consequences will overwhelm the lived experience.”… I agree, it will be rather difficult for ScuMo to convince the growing number of unemployed ones that Albo is to be blamed for their predicament… I keep complaining about the indecent level of media-fueled Voter Moronism in this country, but I know that most people do have a limit….
I can only imagine that there must be a very hot battle going on right now inside the Coalition (the Liberal party in particular), with the Hard Neoliberals demanding an end to the “cash splash” in September and the ScuMistas telling them that survival is worth the abandonment of principles, ideals, plans, previous convictions, “economic responsibility” and whatever else is required. It looks like it’s Neoliberalism vs Marketing at the moment ….
C@tMomma:
Neither paper contains the suggestion that Spain is the “origin” (or says anything at all about areas outside of Spain, as far as I can see)
To the contrary, if the detections are not erroneous it would suggest that the virus was all over the place from early in 2019.
William Bowe @ #19 Sunday, June 28th, 2020 – 8:13 pm
Facts!
What good are they? 🙂
Busy, so a quick reply to everyone.
Newspoll feels about right to me. Even in inner city Sydney, people are happy enough with Scott Morrison’s response to COVID-19. So, if an election were to be held today, I would expect the Coalition to be returned to a majority government.
I do not like this – too many people miss out under our current federal government – the poor and the homeless in particular – but a majority of Australians are happy enough. If the Coalition can tweak policy to maintain this balance of 51 /49 , they will have many more terms of government.
But, we live in “interesting times”. COVID-19 is more disruptive than most people realise.
And, at some stage, surely even the Australian public will come to realise that anthropogenic global warming is real, and is making our lives in Australia materially worse, and vote accordingly?
Seems to me there’s a dilemma.
The LNP doesn’t trust ScoMo, or like him, but he’s holding up their numbers.
Yeah, yeah, I know, I sound like the Black Night in Monty Python (“It’s just a flesh wound!”), but it seems there’s an essential capacity for instability there: a leader popular with the people, but not with his party (who probably resent him propping up their numbers)
Now, where have we come across that situation before?
William wrote:
“Alpo, your first question does nothing to justify your inference that the results are loaded in favour of the Coalition, and your second and third don’t make any sense.”
William, I wrote quite clearly in my original post: “Newspoll in spite of two adjustments in favour of the Coalition in the calculation of the 2PP from primary votes”… Deny that Newspoll has adjusted their calculation of the Coalition 2PP upwards twice: once before the 2019 federal election and once afterwards.
My first question: “Would it do me any good to point out that adjustments on the ground of past results tell nothing about the results of a future election?” is a pretty obvious description of a fact. Just as Newspoll under-estimated the result of the 2019 federal election for the Coalition after adjusting their calculation of the 2PP in their favour, their current values for the 2PP do not guarantee a reasonable representation even of the real direction of the voting intention in the electorate. From this it follows, quite smoothly, what came next in my post:
“Have you noticed that Newspoll is just about the only pollster that keeps producing voting intentions results for the federal election on a regular basis, whereas most of the others seem to have given up?….” which means that the other pollsters have admitted the volatility of the flow of second preferences and therefore the illusion of calculating the 2PP in opinion polls, and this is, in fact, the answer to my second question: “What do they know that both Newspoll and some commentators don’t?”… What those other pollsters know is that right now it’s becoming quite risky to calculate 2PP from first preferences.
Hence, your final statement: “and your second and third don’t make any sense”… disappointingly shows me that you are not thinking hard enough at the moment.
Alpo,
I’d agree with William.
I haven’t seen any pollsters admit to the things you claim they have.
I hate to say it, but Albo is dud. He’s making Shorten look charismatic and strong as he adopts the Beazley proven path to government (oh, hang on…..!). Time to give Tanya a go.
Scrooter is toast!
Toast I tells ya!!!!
Alpo:
1. Newspoll did adjust its preference formula significantly twice before the 2019 election – one (UAP) disclosed at the time, one (ON) disclosed months after the change. While the lack of transparency behind the second was grossly unsatisfactory, both adjustments were proven correct by the results.
2. There is no evidence that Newspoll has adjusted its formula since the election beyond the standard practice for nearly all the last 30 years of changing it to match the most recent election.
3. Preferencing assumptions had only a very small amount to do with the 2019 poll failure. The major cause of it was getting primary votes wrong.
4. Probably as a result of rounding, Newspoll and Galaxy in their very final pre-election polls actually didn’t have the preference flows to Coalition too low. Some other polls such as Ipsos did.
5. The average error in preference flows in the final polls contributed only about 0.2 points to the 3 point miss on the 2PP caused by preferencing errors.
6. Of the polls regularly active nationally in the previous term:
– ReachTEL no longer polls nationally as a result of shifting focuses by its new owner
– Ipsos had its contract terminated by Ninefax
– Essential continues not releasing voting intention figures while releasing unsatisfactory explanations of why they are not doing so
– YouGov (includes Newspoll) and Morgan are still polling.
One cannot conclude from that that the polls that stop have stopped because they know something.
‘I hate to say it, but Albo is dud.’
Mundo will not stand for this kind of defeatism.
Albo and Labor are on track to win a stunning victory in ’22.
Stunning I tells ya!!!
5 above “caused by preferencing errors” should read “caused by primary vote errors”. Apologies.
I will add that despite failing spectacularly at the 2015 Queensland election (held with optional preferential voting), previous-election preferences remain very reliable at federal elections. I have a detailed technical article with updates re that here:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2015/09/wonk-central-track-record-of-last.html
A pure last-election preference method based on the primaries cast would have had Labor outperforming the projection by 1.1 points in 1990, 1.0 points in 2013, and underperforming by 0.8 points in 2019. These are moderate errors not huge ones, and the changes Newspoll made reduced the error further in their case.
At all other elections since 1983 the error would have been under 0.5 points and at several of them it was more or less nothing.
Preferences usually don’t move around that much. The major issue in federal election polling is correctly predicting primaries for the Coalition, Labor and the Greens.
Oh and speaking of things that don’t move around much, there needs to be a royal commission into Newspoll’s lack of volatility.
BB,
I have not met a person who find’s Scott Morrison palatable. I don’t understand how he could have PPM numbers like that.
Maybe it’s the quiet australians…..
Of course both William and Kevin Bonham failed to note the 2019 polling anomalies (rather monotonous consistencies) brought to everyone’s attention by (was it) Mark The Ballot(?) last time, and both happily predicted a Labor win, based (in great measure) on Newspoll.
So let’s not get carried away, guru-wize.
I think the takeaway from polling since middish 2018 is that no-one – not the pollsters, not the poll experts, not the bloggers, nor the public – really has a clue WHO is where in the polls within about +/- 5%.
Things have changed in the past few years: minor parties seem to get more votes than they used to, allegiance to major parties has a different quality to it than a few years ago, the media is evolving and re-shaping, tribalism is rampant, the internet is shaping opinion, politics is held in lower esteem.
Then there are the close-to Biblical happenings of just the last 6 months: drought, fire, flood, plague, pestilence etc. There is a near-depression that governments are still trying to talk their way out of. Climate Change symptoms are getting worse, and so on.
None of this new wave of tribulations has been tested by polling. It seems to be assumed that polling techniques take it all in their stride, rain, hail or shine. But, until we have an election that can serve as a calibration benchmark of polling techniques in the Brave New World we find ourselves in, my bet is no-one knows for sure WTF is going on.
There’ll be no change in voting intentions till the punters are feeling it in the pocket.
The embedded ‘Labor is bad’ remains and is re-enforced everyday, morning and night by the MSM duopoly.
Morrison pairs nicely with the safe white male is best mindset and the voters ain’t for changing.
The punters just don’t want to be wrong about house prices, carbon use, unions, greenies, dark people, boat people and four wheel drive cars.
And when the dust settles on the inevitable Morrison calamity, it will be promoted as the fault of Labor and the Greens.
It’s a scary scenario. (an extreme right wing regime).
Followed by “why didn’t they warn us?”
Morning all. I see the charm offensive from Victorians continues in SA.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-28/victorian-man-crashes-car-covid-sa/12400708
Meanwhile Trump seems to be performing an outrage per day as his campaign strategy. At this point the republican base vote is the racist vote.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/28/trump-deletes-tweet-supporter-shouting-white-power-after-fierce-criticism
Socrates
Sounds Like he was released
It looks like it’s Neoliberalism vs Marketing at the moment ….
Alpo, I get the impression that Scott Morrison is trying to seamlessly blend the two together for when we get down the road around September or Budget time, so that there will be mostly Austerity but carefully-targeted handouts. As he seems to be heading in the direction of already.