Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires

A new poll registers fears of a second coronavirus wave and prolonged economic slowdown, and finds concern about climate change still at a high pitch.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research poll has still more results on coronavirus, together with some findings on climate change. On the former count, the poll found 63% rating a second wave of coronavirus as restrictions are eased as very likely or quite likely, with only 13% rating it very unlikely; more than 60% expected international travel restrictions to remain for between one and two years; 70% thought it would take between one and two years for employment to recover; 60% expected a prolonged impact on the housing market; more than 60% expected a vaccine would be developed “over the next few years”; and 58% that the population would build resistance through exposure over that time. Despite it all, 45% said they felt very or somewhat positive about the next 12 months compared with 33% for very or somewhat negative.

On climate change, 52% now think Australia is not doing enough, down eight on November, with 25% holding the contrary view, up three. Forty-two per cent said they were now more concerned about climate change than they were a year ago, with a further 46% saying they were no more or less concerned. Full results from the poll will be published later today. (UPDATE: Full report here).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires”

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  1. Social distancing measures at pubs and other venues will be reduced in South Australia from next Monday, allowing some to fill to up to 50 per cent capacity, the SA Government says.

    The Government today announced that, from Monday, June 29, social distancing will be reduced to one person per two square metres, down from the current restriction of one person per four square metres.

    SA Premier Steven Marshall said it would help increase the number of patrons at venues, allowing businesses to employ more staff.

  2. The first wave isn’t over in the US. It’s getting worse.

    Young people in the US South and West are increasingly getting coronavirus

    (CNN) — The major thrust of new coronavirus cases in the United States is in the South and West, where officials say more young people are ignoring social distancing measures and testing positive.

    Young people are more likely to have milder outcomes from coronavirus, but they can still infect others who are more at risk.

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, told Axios that the recent high number of cases in young people is “not surprising.” Like Frieden, he warned of what’s to come.

    “They get infected first, then they come home, and then they infect the older people. The older people get the complications, and then they go to the hospitals,” Fauci said. “The death rate always lags several weeks behind the infection rate.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/22/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html

  5. phoenixRED @ #192 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 12:53 pm

    “Why is he imploding so fast? He has missed the moment, people want to end the culture war and come together,” Scaramucci wrote.

    What people want that? The lunatics who created this mess by being okay with Trump can’t be let off that easily. Otherwise they’ll just keep doing it, every 4 years or so.

  6. Australia’s competition regulator is taking internet providers Dodo and iPrimus to court for allegedly misleading customers about their NBN broadband speeds.

    The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) alleges that the two providers, both owned by Vocus Group, made false claims about the internet speeds that customers could receive if they signed up to an NBN broadband service.

    “We believe many of Dodo and iPrimus’ NBN customers would have been unable to regularly receive the advertised speeds during the busy evening period between 7:00pm to 11:00pm,” ACCC chairman Rod Sims said.

    The misleading activity is being alleged for the period between March 2018 and April 2019.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-23/accc-sues-dodo-and-iprimus-for-allegedly-misleading-internet-sp/12383950

  7. phoenixRED
    That isn’t a surprise and was bound to happen because the cultural warriors are best at reacting to what a government does but when they are in power after they have hit out at their easy targets they soon run out of steam as the promised benefits don’t appear then they start to regress in the face of losing support.

  8. From the Guardian blog

    Testing in Victoria
    Four-hour wait times at some in-car COVID testing sites. At others, like Craigieburn, hundreds are being waved past and told to come back later.

  9. BK says:
    Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 12:39 pm
    TPOF
    We created what we called the “itis report” where, with smaller and smaller granularity we could determine the divergence from the norm (average for the region) for all types of warranty claims for every dealer. It’s amazing how dumb so many of them were in trying to game the system.
    We would often find one dealer would have two or three favourites that were way off the norm. Windscreen leakitis, weatherstripitis, etc, bur we would never sting them without irrefutable proof found by our auditors on the ground.

    __________________________________

    There are always people wanting to game the system in any field. They need to identified and stopped because if they are allowed to go on others get to hear of it and it becomes a free-for-all.

    The thing is, though, that most people and organisations genuinely try to do the right thing and sometimes make mistakes. The truly terrible thing about Robodebt was that not only was every client assumed to have been in the wrong unless THEY could prove otherwise, but that in many cases people would have been scrupulous in doing the right thing and should never have been subject to the ‘you are guilty unless you can find evidence (which you often did not need to keep) to prove otherwise’. And if you don’t respond we will act on the basis that you are indeed guilty and garnishee wages, tax refunds, etc.

    No reputable private organisation has ever done what the Coalition did and some disreputable ones have found themselves facing criminal charges for fraudulent misrepresentation.

    Without doubt, what the Coalition – and only the Coalition – did was despicable.

    You don’t blame the person who bought the gun you stole to conduct your massacre!

  10. Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 12:52 pm
    Cat, it’s not all about you. I made the comment in response to:

    G doesn’t seem to realise that nobody else cares!

    ______________________________

    Interesting that the old nag didn’t actually nominate who the response was to. I presumed it was to goad any number of Laborites here to respond and then claim it was directed at someone else. I was right.

  11. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 1:07 pm
    phoenixRED
    That isn’t a surprise and was bound to happen because the cultural warriors are best at reacting to what a government does but when they are in power after they have hit out at their easy targets they soon run out of steam as the promised benefits don’t appear then they start to regress in the face of losing support.

    ________________________________

    ….. or invade Poland

  12. The slightest hint of lockdown and away we go again.

    grace pettigrew
    @broomstick33
    ·
    4m
    can confirm, just been to the supermarket, the toilet rolls are disappearing off the shelves at speed, who said what when where, and what happened to the last lot?

  13. B

    Supposedly, because it wouldn’t cause an RC to be called and they wished to pursue an alternative path.

    What path would that be? If you believe Labor would want an RC with a ToR encompassing its time in government, I have a bridge to sell you.

    So Labor makes a pre-election promise…. promises are often broken post-election….trust us….don’t think so.

    The premise *if* Labor gets in it will implement a RC is dependent upon winning so no guarantees there.

    Labor can not even bring itself to be seen voting for a Greens motion because it hasn’t got the numbers. Purely political on the part of Labor.

    And some Laborites lament wtte why don’t voters understand and know what Labor stands for.

  14. Gabriel Sherman @gabrielsherman – My latest:

    Sources said Trump was so mad at the small crowd size in Tulsa that he almost didn’t go out on stage.

    Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale is planning to step down, “He knows he can’t survive,” says a source

    “BRAD REALLY S–T THE BED SATURDAY NIGHT”: AFTER TULSA CATASTROPHE, PARSCALE—AND KUSHNER—IS AT THE TOP OF TRUMP’S HIT LIST

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/06/after-tulsa-parscale-and-kushner-on-trumps-hit-list?utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_brand=vf&mbid=social_twitter

  15. As I understand it Parliament is not involved in establishing Royal Commissions. They are executive instruments.

    The LibHeavy will oppose the call for an RC. They derive a political gain from defying the call and have only losses to incur if they agree to one.

    The Greens have been disarmed in their attack on Labor. Good tactic by Labor.

  18. Pegasus @ #213 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 11:15 am

    B

    Supposedly, because it wouldn’t cause an RC to be called and they wished to pursue an alternative path.

    What path would that be? If you believe Labor would want an RC with a ToR encompassing its time in government, I have a bridge to sell you.

    …

    Why wouldn’t it?

  19. Now we can see the Greens attacking Labor even though they support an RC. Hilarious. These things are just devices….decoys. They are really just tokens on a board as far as the Greens are concerned.

  20. continuo
    says:
    The Greens have been disarmed in their attack on Labor. Good tactic by Labor.
    ______________
    Fuck Labor.

  21. Greg Hunt has been insisting that BLM in all states somehow caused a spike in Victoria. He’s a great one for massaging the facts until they fit his story.

    Crikey

    Black Lives Matter did not cause an outbreak

    Let’s just say it one more time for the people at the back: 14 days later, there has been no recorded community transmission of COVID-19 from Melbourne’s Black Lives Matter rally.
    While four people in Victoria who attended rallies later tested positive, there’s no evidence they infected anyone while protesting. There have been no cases with any connection to the numerous other rallies held in other states.
    This is in spite of stern warnings from politicians, the media and some public health officials about the risks of a rally potentially causing a second wave. While politicians and reporters have tried their hardest to pin the blame for Victoria’s recent clusters of new cases, the evidence just doesn’t stand up at all.

  22. TPOF

    lol Simple reason actually…to save typing…and when I entered my comment it was immediately after L’s and I thought it would appear next. However, when I refreshed the page that was not to be, though it still appeared in close enough proximity for anyone of any intelligence to see the connection.

    Edit: Also your reading comprehension skills needs some work. My original comment was:

    And again,another Laborite presumes to speak for everyone

  23. C

    You must have missed it. I will save you scrolling back.

    Greens posters and myself welcomed Labor joining the Greens call for a Royal Commission into Robodebt.

    Labor is late to this party. Labor cannot change the timeline.

  24. D

    Shockjocks love to shock.
    All peaceful in my area. 😆

    Today the warnings caused fear in the streets as hundreds of people queued to be tested. Some testing stations ran out of test kits. There were traffic jams. It was bedlam.

  25. [‘… Heydon’s legal purism was just as strict.

    In a case involving a husband’s rape of his wife in the 1960s, Heydon held a minority view that the man should not be prosecuted.’]

    That sort of says it all about this disreputable, hypocritical man.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/legal-purist-dogged-by-claims-of-political-bias-who-is-dyson-heydon-20200622-p554yx.html

    He’ll need all the money he made (plus some) as the trade union royal commissioner to settle the compensation claims of the six complainants. He could also face criminal charges.

  26. Do you think Donald Trump respects racial minorities?
    Yes 35% (-21)
    No 56%
    .
    Do you think Joe Biden respects racial minorities?
    Yes 53% (+20)
    No 33%

    @FoxNews
    6/13-16

  27. nath

    Do you think BB will ever tell you to GAGF as he has me on more than one occasion.

    I hazard I have some idea why not and it wouldn’t be any self-serving rationalisation he would offer.

  28. Brad Parscale is in total freefall

    Donald Trump’s Tulsa rally was one of the biggest blunders in modern U.S. presidential election history. Everyone involved with it is to blame for the humiliating failure, which has generated endless negative headlines and furthered the narrative that even Trump’s supporters are giving up on him as he circles the drain.

    But even as Trump waffles and whines, his 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale is in total freefall. Someone in the Trump regime is now leaking to Vanity Fair that Parscale is planning to resign. If this is true, then it means Parscale is heading for the exits before Trump can work up the nerve to fire him. If this is a false leak, it means someone close to Trump is so eager to get rid of Parscale, he or she is planting stories aimed at creating a self fulfilling prophecy.

    Either way, Parscale is in huge trouble. He’s the one who’s nominally in charge of this failed campaign. And since he’s one of the few people left around Donald Trump who isn’t a member of his family, Parscale is the obvious scapegoat. Considering how badly he’s blowing this, we kind of hope Trump doesn’t get rid of him too soon.

    https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/brad-parscale-is-in-total-freefall/29978/

  29. BK @ #181 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 12:39 pm

    TPOF
    We created what we called the “itis report” where, with smaller and smaller granularity we could determine the divergence from the norm (average for the region) for all types of warranty claims for every dealer. It’s amazing how dumb so many of them were in trying to game the system.
    We would often find one dealer would have two or three favourites that were way off the norm. Windscreen leakitis, weatherstripitis, etc, bur we would never sting them without irrefutable proof found by our auditors on the ground.

    I built and installed a system for the claims manager (Phil) at MBF (Health Insurer), that produced reports that ranked the monthly claims for each Medicare Item Number by Total Claim Amount, Hospital Days, Gap charge, Pharmaceutical Charges and so on (highest down) . The reports identified the supplier numbers, and id’s of the stand-out rorters. The results were loaded up onto , at the time, new fangled notebook computers, and the prime rorters were visited with the evidence for ‘discussions’. I recall one prominent Crows Nest public/private hospital was keeping new mothers in for over twice as long as comparable plain public hospitals, like North Shore, up the road, or Prince Edward or Crown St. An extra $1800 per birth, in return for a much higher incidence of deleterious effects for both mothers and babies.

    One notable surgeon managed to fit in four keyhole gall bladder removals, at $5,600 a pop, before golf, one Wednesday.

  30. I see the claim the Greens never attack the Nationals, or Liberals, or… is getting a trot, as it always does when cognitive dissonance is reaching an uncomfortable level with some Laborites.

    Whatever it takes.

  32. Pegasus says:
    Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 1:27 pm
    nath

    Do you think BB will ever tell you to GAGF as he has me on more than one occasion.

    _____________________________________

    I’m not BB, but sometimes I just can’t resist temptation.

    Peg, I never have and never foreseeably will tell you to GAGF.

    However, I am utterly delighted to take the opportunity to issue the invitation to your friend, preferably with a swordfish proboscis.

  35. lizzie @ #171 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 12:27 pm

    [AirBnB built nothing. They figured out how to steal rental housing stock & make it into hotels, priced ppl who work in cities from being able to rent in them, and forced longer commutes & higher rents onto poor ppl. Spare us.]

    Is this a quote from an article somewhere, or did someone here say it? I’m interested, because I also have mixed feelings about AirBnB (disclosure: we make part of our income from using them!).

    On the one hand, AirBnB saw a market opportunity and ran with it … but on the other hand, some AirBnB hosts certainly abuse it. However, I believe the main problem is outdated or unenforced regulations which do not adequately control subletting in inappropriate situations.

    I’m not sure you can hold AiBnB to blame for that.

  38. P1

    AirBnB is a disruptor. It lets renters have some power in gaining income from a property.

    You are correct that regulation is needed. As with any new market the greed runs out of control with no regulation.

  39. The liberals and their assorted clique of hangers on will be very upset if there is a breakout of covid cases anywhere else except Victoria. NSW would be interesting for example.

    Who to blame ? It will be interesting to see how they twist and double pike to turn the blame onto Victoria if it does happen. It will be a sight to behold.

  40. guytaur @ #238 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 1:53 pm

    AirBnB is a disruptor. It lets renters have some power in gaining income from a property.

    I don’t think that was their main intent (and technically it doesn’t because an illegal sublet is an illegal sublet, whether arranged through AirBnB or not; so renters still risk eviction). It also lets owner-occupiers and investors do the same thing, without doing long-term rental agreements or dealing with established holiday-rental agencies.

    They’re disruptive because they’ve “gig-economied” the short-term/holiday rental space.

  41. To the best of my knowledge, there’s only been one HC judge to face criminal charges: Lionel Murphy (“my little mate”), who Heydon disparaged for the brevity of his judgments. Murphy beat the rap after a second trial; Heydon might not be so lucky.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/from-the-archives-1986-a-last-case-then-murphy-era-ends-20191014-p530k2.html

    I attended Murphy’s first trial in ’85, in the Banco Court. It was quite dramatic at times. He went down, successfully appealed, and then went to a second trial, where he was acquitted.
    Were he not to have been found not guilty there was the prospect of it ending up in the High Court, to be judged by his peers. It’s often said that the stress of two trials and an appeal
    contributed to his premature death of cancer in October ’86, aged 64.

  42. AR

    I agree with all of that and yes the eviction risk is there. It’s just let people be aware of how easy it is to get away with it.

    We need renters rights getting more attention than the Andrews government has put in place.

  43. Player One

    It was a comment in response to this.

    @RileyCNBC
    ·
    11h
    “We spent 12 years building Airbnb’s business and lost almost all of it in the matter of 4-6 weeks,” says Airbnb CEO @BChesky

    “Travel as we knew it is over. It doesn’t mean travel is over, just the travel we knew is over, and it’s never coming back.”

  44. @WhistlingWhist
    ·
    4m
    Can we talk about nature strips?

    Mine is a #foodnotlawn

    Get numerous complaints from neighbours to Council

    Today 4 Council staff spent 2 hours planting 1 deciduous tree, trampled all over existing plants (herbs/veg/bee plants), ripped out my White Cherry then drove away

  45. @cathywilcox1
    ·
    3m
    When a man with a lawyer’s mind strenuously denies the accusations against him, does he mean that he didn’t do the thing and the accusations are false, or that he did the thing but according to his own particular definition it wasn’t exactly the thing he’s accused of?

  47. Thanks for the laugh.

    @davidbewart
    ·
    22s
    Twas an evening in November
    As I very well remember
    I was strolling down the street in drunken pride
    But my knees were all a-flutter
    So I landed in the gutter
    And a pig came up and lay down by my side
    Yes, I lay there in the gutter
    Thinking thoughts I could not utter
    When a colleen passing by did softly say:
    “Ye can tell a man that boozes
    By the company he chooses”
    And the pig got up and slowly walked away.

    Anonymous

  49. Now that the call for an RC into robodebt is a call against the LibHeavy we can expect the Greens to lose interest in the issue. The value for them was in linking both Labor and LibHeavy together. This is no longer a valid strategy.

    If by some fluke or error the LibHeavy were to agree to an RC it would be described as a win for Labor. The Greens would be fuming.

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