Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:
• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.
• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.
• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …
• The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.
Eden-Monaro latest:
• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).
Socrates
Brazil has similar provisions in its Constitution.
I think Venezuela is the same.
Don’t be fooled about the crucial point the US is at just because it’s the US.
Congress has a role. Trump’s team is split with Esper publicly on the same page as Mattis.
Trump is the problem. But be in no doubt we are witnessing a Constitutional crisis
Mattis put it clearly. The executive abusing its power.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s press conference was interrupted this morning by a man telling he and members of the press to get off his newly reseeded grass.
Mr Morrison was speaking to the media in Googong, in NSW, about the government’s new $688 million Homebuilder scheme when a man emerged from a home to chastise the group.
“Can everyone get off the grass, please?” the man said.
“Hey guys, I’ve just reseeded that,” he added, pointing to his lawn.
Unfazed, Mr Morrison gave the man a thumbs up and an “all good” before continuing in a different spot.
Morrison the trespasser.Cant even organise a presser.
“meher babasays:
Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 1:06 pm
Blobbit: “Where Robodebt failed was in solely relying on income averaging, as far as I can see. This is straight up an LNP failure.”
Sorry, I missed this. Again, have you a source for this?”
No – but do you have a source that there was no human oversight prior to automation?
And even if that is the case, the LNP are still responsible for the implementation of the program. Even if all they did was automate a previous policy, that doesn’t absolve them of anything.
Meher baba
Yes Centrelink did do income averaging but deciding if the debt was valid was a big part of the process.
When I was managing a business we would get regular requests from Centrelink to provide details of a persons income. It was punishable by fine if you did not complete the form within a certain time frame. It put a massive burden on the employer because it was often data from a couple of years prior, the payment periods never corresponded with our roster/ pay process. You would often have to access archives to determine why some ones work decreased, was it their choice or the employer. Had you terminated them, if so why etc.
Having dealt with these workers I know it wasn’t because they didn’t provide their accurate info but more that the government wanted to.prove they hadn’t been ripping off the system
The other big bugbear with this approach, from an Employers perspective was that casuals and part timers would not work extra shifts because their income for that period would alter their benefits, and then when they worked less they would have to wait for the system to catch up.
From the employees point of view, they have provided their income estimate, kept the required number of pay slips and then the government back dates the debt for a longer period. Even bank statements showing earnings in line with claimed hours are not acceptable under the non human intervention process.
Income averaging, without having to resort to making businesses do the leg work was another cutting red tape exercise designed to aid business and government and stymie workers trying to put food on the table.
Pun of the Ear.
Jaeger:
Well …
Issues related to the coronavirus have dislodged debt collection as the most common complaint to Australia’s independent taxation watchdog, ending a five-year run as the pandemic dominates the focus of taxpayers and the Taxation Office.
Inspector-General of Taxation Karen Payne told The Australian Financial Review that debts have been bumped to the number two most-common complaint as taxpayers track federal government stimulus payments, superannuation access and refunds.
“Since 2015, debt collection has been our number one complaint in every quarter of every year. In the last quarter of financial year 2019-20, debt collection drops off,” Ms Payne said.
“We don’t know the reason why it has suddenly dropped back to second place but an educated guess would be that people are focused elsewhere.
“I suspect it’s not just taxpayers are focused elsewhere, I think also the Tax Office are focused elsewhere.”
Ms Payne, who also serves as the Taxation Ombudsman, said her office had received about 100 approaches from members of the public related directly to COVID-19 matters, with about 50 complaints now active and ongoing with the ATO.
She said her office was working hard to resolve complaints as quickly as possible.
“In a time of crisis it is up to everyone to come together and I’d certainly say that the Tax Office have done their piece in recognising that these are difficult times for everyone.”
Tax lodgement and processing, ATO communications and registration were also among most common complaint areas.
The pandemic has seen an investigation into the ATO’s growing $45 billion debt book delayed.
Launched in October 2019, the review will probe a $7 billion increase in uncollected, undisputed tax debts.
Other MB: “It should be on the actual rather than an average.”
Yes, the court has now determined that and this is the way it will be done going forward. But the use of an average to calculate the debt goes back a long way.
Relying on the actual potentially means that the debt won’t be recovered for years, until when the debtor’s relevant tax return for that year has been received and processed.
I would imagine that someone in the bureaucracy is already developing some sort of scheme – a la the tax system – where a much stronger onus will be placed on welfare recipients to tell Centrelink when they start earning other income and, if they fail to do so, they will later face a very large charge to cover the cost of calculating their precise overpayment. This seems undesirable to me: to take one instance, because people quite frequently start new jobs and then find out that their employer is insolvent and unable to pay them, so it makes some sense for them not to cut off the dole payments until they receive their first weekly or fortnighly wages.
But I would challenge anyone to provide a convincing argument as to how it would be unfair. The likes of Asher Wolf seem to be suggesting that the government shouldn’t chase down overpayments of welfare, because this is somehow hard on welfare recipients (which ignores the fact that almost nobody who is permanently on welfare could possibly be affected by income averaging).
I’d be interested to see a political party go to the electorate with that sort of a policy. I seriously doubt that Labor would do it.
“Strange that it still exists then.”
Might have something to do with the fact that Medicare was a good policy that the overwhelming majority of people want. And nothing to do with the sad, sick philosophy of the Liberal Party.
BOB LYNCH @ #1634 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 1:11 pm
I was there observing on the inside a couple of decades ago when Accenture moved in to the ATO. A robust internal IT operation was sacrificed for reliance on an outside provider who was effectively granted considerable pricing power. Risk to the Commonwealth went up, price went up, flexibility went down. Pretty close to the general problems of privatisation I would have thought.
Any organisation the size of the Commonwealth (or the ATO for that matter) is better off having it’s own internal IT development and operational capability. More responsive, better cost control, no externals making a profit.
As a bit more background information re Robodebt, I found this interesting precis from one of the legal firms pursuing the class action.
“Definition
You are a group member if…[list of all the types of pensions and benefits covered]
AND
If at any time after April 2015:
You received or were sent Centrelink letters or other correspondence or notification which requested that you check, confirm or update employment income information; and
Following this, Centrelink asserted that you owed a debt and demanded repayment of the debt; and
In calculating your debt, Centrelink applied data from the ATO to your record for some, or all, of the debt period.
AND
You have paid, or had recovered from you, any debt or part thereof (including through a payment plan, garnishing of tax return or payment of the debt in full)…
The following examples provide a rough guide to what is and what is not a Robodebt.
If Centrelink asked the recipient to check/update/confirm their income for a period of time and the recipient did not provide any records to do so, the debt is a Robodebt
If Centrelink asked the recipient to check/update/confirm their income for a period of time and the recipient provided some but not all of the records required, the debt is a Robodebt
If Centrelink asked the recipient to check/update/confirm your income for a period of time and the recipient provided records for the whole of that period of time, your debt is probably not a Robodebt.”
https://gordonlegal.com.au/robodebt-class-action/robodebt-faqs/
So, in short, in order to have become a “victim” of Robodebt, you needed to have been asked by Centrelink to do the right thing in terms of providing records about your income, and you have failed to do so.
And now they’re rioting in the UK because….?
Two Australian Journalists assaulted so far because that’s really sticking it to the man.
I do hope the Police are gentle with them.
mehere
The class action proves you wrong.
https://www.twitch.tv/woke
If anyone’s looking to avoid doing anything but gawk at the USA today. There’s a combined set of live streams.
If you have an area of interest just look at the name and the platform wher eyou can search direct.
ie, FB facebook, YT youtube and PRRI periscope etc.
Some really ballsy streamers right in the middle of it.
meher baba @ #1656 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 1:42 pm
Until recently, people had to report income for the period in which it was “earned” which could be different from when it is actually paid and could be quite difficult to work out as you had to add up the hours you were paid during the relevant social security benefit period and apply your hourly rate to it.
I’t’s interesting that under the income tax law, salary and wage income is assessable when it is actually paid, which is inconsistent with the Centrelink basis.
It’s all consistent with the attitude held by Meher Baba and his ilk that they profess outrage at social security beneficiaries getting away with the occasional wrinkle while business, finance and politicians walk away with sometimes literally millions in taxpayer funds under very dubious circumstances.
Meher baba
How many years do you keep your payslips. If it’s less than 10 then you could be subject to robodebt is you received any Centrelink benefit including child payments
Meher
sometimes you say interesting things. This:
“So, in short, in order to have become a “victim” of Robodebt, you needed to have been asked by Centrelink to do the right thing in terms of providing records about your income, and you have failed to do so.”
… is not one of them. Unless you think it’s fine for the ATO to ask for your income details from 8 years ago when it had previously told you you could destroy them after 5 years. And where it now asked for all your payslips and not just a group certificate – or whatever they are called these days.
It’s one thing to ask for recent income records when you are seeking payment or have recently been paid. It’s not the ‘right’ thing to ask for records that only obsessive hoarders would keep years after payments have been made. Or even records you may never have had and which would be far easier for Centrelink to obtain themselves. And then, when provided, have your challenge to the speculative claim by Centrelink held up for weeks or months and then finally get a new calculation of ‘debt’ based on nothing disclosed the recipient.
If you think that any aspect of the Robodebt program – as rolled out to recipients – was in any way fair or reasonable or just you have a heart as hard as Donald Trump.
ajm
One of the problems with our social security measures are that they were developed to fit the full time work model. With the increase in the gig economy and businesses pushing for flexibility with casuals and permanent part time staff many of the fail safes in the system, designed to encourage work have actually become counterproductive. Combine this with less human interventions to assist people,trying to navigate the system in a timely manner and the system becomes unworkable.
Someone in government should be aware of these issues and been tasked with solving them, but then they probably do know but don’t want to act.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/04/the-homebuilder-scheme-is-simply-pork-barrelling-to-the-coalitions-electoral-base
“How many Australian families with a combined income of less than $200,000 per year do you think are planning a $150k renovation in the next six months? If they are, do you think they wouldn’t have gone ahead anyway without a cash grant of no more than 16.66% of their costs?
Anyone able to start this kind of large-scale renovation by the end of the year either already has their finance lined up and hasn’t suffered an income cut during this crisis that would make them reconsider, or has the cash to do it without borrowing.”
lizzie
Its totally laughable. Which makes me wonder if its purpose is pure marketing. Simply to have a talking point and show that Scotty is the tradies’ friend.
Socrates:
Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 1:25 pm
[‘…They both lay out very clearly the legal and constitutional cases why serving US military personnel should not use force against peaceful US protestors. To me they are implicitly telling all US troops not to follow such orders.’]
There can be little doubt that that’s Mattis’s (and other retired military brass’s) implied message to the troops, most of whom, I’d hazard a guess, would view Trump as an arsewipe, unfit to clean “Mad Dog’s” boots.
Yes, I did it 20 years ago when I had a full time job. Would I do it now if I had been heading for a recession and possible unemployment? No way.
How much more will the reno cost now? about $25k…
You should only spend 10-15% of the value of the house at most on a renovation. Anything more than that then you are over capitalizing. I’ve watched many episodes of Selling Houses Australia.
nath
That’s when renovating for sale. It’s different if the intention is to live there long term and maybe make rooms for relatives.
Mavis
Yes exactly why it’s a Constitutional Crisis.
The military refusing to obey the orders of the duly elected President.
In this case for very good reason but be in no doubt where the United States is.
That’s what happens when you have an executive abusing power in a democracy.
The most corrupt government since federation first rails against borrowing money against future generations then borrows money against future generations to pork home owners.
The cost of buying Eden Monaro to date?
Three quarters of a billion dollars.
Crooks and liars.
Samantha Maiden
@samanthamaiden
· 4h
Just on those who can’t believe a $150k Reno. This is not unusual at all if you’re putting on an extra living room, bathroom and so on. I get criticism of scheme but idea you can’t spend $150k on a Reno – you refinance your loan. People do it all the time.
Rolled gold example of why the Canberra Press gallery don’t get ordinary people.
Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison cut hundreds of millions from Indigenous programs.
World record incarceration rates per capita.
350 dead in custody.
People have died for unpaid traffic fines.
And there is no equivalence here?
Pig’s Arse there isn’t.
TPOF: “Unless you think it’s fine for the ATO to ask for your income details from 8 years ago when it had previously told you you could destroy them after 5 years. And where it now asked for all your payslips and not just a group certificate – or whatever they are called these days.”
Genuine question. Has this actually been happening? And, if it has, is it happening to anyone who has actually submitted a tax return for the financial year of 8 years ago?
I’m wondering because, if they are asking for information about income from 8 years ago and have your tax return, what else are they after?
Let them eat Granite bench tops!
Nath,
As an investment yes, but as a boost to your personal lifestyle or to deal with a growing family, not all decisions can come down to cost…
It is quite noticeable that Scotty Daddy from Scomotose Marketing is not getting a free ride from the MSM on RenoRorts.
Memo to LNP defenders.
Your Austerity will lead to a Depression.
Your “savings” are a direct route to job loss. Resentment and losing votes.
Do keep up such things as “Homebuilder”. You will see Labor and the Greens rise as those that have missed out punish you at the ballot box.
The states cannot save you. You already served them with Austerity.
From general reporting in the MSM I had the impression covid 19 is pretty much “all over” in Australia. However adding up the numbers I found Australia had 93 new cases in the past 7 days. A surprisingly large number.
I’d like to know who inspects said renovation to ensure that it was actually done before the 25K is handed over
Bulldust @ #1687 Thursday, June 4th, 2020 – 3:07 pm
But! But! You can trust Tradies! They are the most honest people under the sun! 😐
Why can’t poorer people who want to do important improvements to their house e.g. fixing old roofing, new more air tight windows, upgrade bathrooms for safety get $25,000 too?
Why are my taxes used to give benefits to rich north shore bastards so they can add a new jacuzzi to their mansion but I’m excluded from basic improvements to my house because I can’t afford $150,000 ?
Welfare for Rich Parasites!
How natural a policy for the most corrupt Government since the Rum Corps.
“porotisays:
Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 3:04 pm
From general reporting in the MSM I had the impression covid 19 is pretty much “all over” in Australia. However adding up the numbers I found Australia had 93 new cases in the past 7 days. A surprisingly large number.”
Virtually all returning travelers though. Outside of Victoria and NSW, it is all over for community transmission.
“Rakalisays:
Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 3:11 pm
Why can’t poorer people who want to do important improvements to their house e.g. fixing old roofing, new more air tight windows, upgrade bathrooms for safety get $25,000 too?”
This
guytaur says:
Thursday, June 4, 2020 at 2:55 pm
[‘Yes exactly why it’s a Constitutional Crisis.’]
I think it could end up that way, though we’re not there yet. It’s a very fluid situation, which could end up with the invocation of the 25th Amendment. However, I’d prefer to see him trounced on November 3, with Biden telling him, “You’re fired”! And as you’d be aware, it’s a custom for the outgoing president to leave a note in the Oval Room’s desk draw. One can only imagine what it would contain.
Most renos in the $150K + range in inner city areas of Sydney (and probably Melbourne & other cities) would require a development application (unless you’re replacing like with like) especially within conservation areas that cover inner Sydney like a blanket. Getting a DA prepared, lodged + approved usually takes around 6 months, usually more. You then need a construction certificate and to tender it to builders and get the contract documents organised. Many thousands spent even before you get the 25K and you could miss the 31 December deadline. Think this stimulus would only really work for outer urban or regional areas.
Rakali
Excellent post.
Add to previous…. if you can head down the complying development path then that would speed up the process…maybe
guytaur
Rakali
Excellent post.
——
Thank you…. but it is blatant welfare for the rich and as an economic stimulus measure pretty stupid.
The Liberals would much rather piss the money up the wall than actually address social need.
Mavis
You have Army Generals on CNN calling Trump’s actions like something you witness in Turkey.
They know what they are talking about it’s a Constitutional Crisis.
Unlike Whitlam in 1975 Trump has been using the military for political strategy.
Rakali
Agree, should allow for minor works.