A promised initiative to restore confidence in opinion polling has came to fruition with the establishment of the Australian Polling Council, a joint endeavour of YouGov, Essential Research and uComms. Following the example of the British Polling Council and the National Council for Published Polls in the United States, the body promises to “ensure standards of disclosure”, “encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling” and “inform media and the public about best practice in the conduct and reporting of polls”.
The most important of these points relates to disclosure, particularly of how demographic weightings were used to turn raw figures into a published result. The British Polling Council requires that its members publish “computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published”. We’ll see if its Australian counterpart to sees things the same way when it releases its requirements for disclosures, which is promised “before July 2020”.
Elsewhere:
• The West Australian has had two further local polls on coronavirus from Painted Dog Research, one from last week and one from this week ($). The McGowan government announced its decision to reopen schools next week in between the two polls, which had the support of 22.7% in the earlier poll and 49% this week, with opposition down from 43.3% to 27%, and the undecided down from 34% to 24%. The earlier poll found remarkably strong results for the McGowan government’s handling of the crisis, with 90.0% agreeing it had been doing a good job (including 54.2% strongly agreeing) and only 2.9% disagreeing (1.2% strongly), with 7.1% neither agreeing or disagreeing. No field work dates provided, but the latest poll has a sample of 831.
• The University of Melbourne’s Melbourne Institute conducted a 1200-sample survey on coronavirus from April 6 to 11, and while the published release isn’t giving too much away, we told that “about 60% of Australians report being moderately to very satisfied with government economic policies to support jobs and keep people at work”, and that “more than 80% expect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic to last for more than 6 months“.
• The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage political science blog examines local government elections held in France on March 15, two days before the country went into lockdown: turnout fell from 63% to 45%, but the result was not radically different from the last such elections in 2016. Traditional conservative and socialist parties holding up well and the greens making gains, Emmanuel Macron’s presidential vehicle La République En Marche failing to achieve much cross-over success, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National losing ground compared with a strong result in 2014.
A very ‘politically correct’ statement, IMO. Wants to protect the government.
“Cud Chewersays:
Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 9:33 am
Blobbit
Blackly amusing but having friends in Singapore, one of whom is a migrant worker taught me that Singapore has a dark side. And that attitude (of treating migrant workers as an underclass) has come back to bite them.”
Yep. And there’s a similar population in Australia I hope we don’t ignore.
Not foreign guest workers here, but I’m thinking of a particular group in Australia who are often put outside of normal social activity and ignored.
‘Scott Morrison wants business and union leaders to come up with new ideas rather than fighting in their corner for their own vested interests.’
Scotty from Marketing just warming up now……
Mundo is ignoring the main point I was making – there’s a difference between ‘releasing’ a vaccine and rolling out a mass vaccination program. There will probably be a few vaccines ‘released’ in fairly short order that have varying degrees of effectiveness, and possibly nasty side-effects.
You are not going to be asked to roll up to a clinic to get your arm jabbed by the government until there’s a lot more evidence of effectiveness and population safety.
Mark 14:7
Helping the poor therefore is optional. Very reasonable. Praise the Lord. 😇
Can someone explain?
If oil is in the negative and producers are paying customers to take it off their hands why is Australia paying $94M for it, shouldn’t we be lining up with our buckets and barrels to take it and be compensated for taking it?
Jackol @ #151 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 11:21 am
Jackol is taking Mundo seriously.
This is a bad sign.
‘Is Morrison naïve enough to expect a consensus? It seems unlikely. He will harvest ideas.’ SMH
Scott the Harvester sounds appropriately biblical.
If this is true there was no need for ‘panicked decisions’.
https://www.smh.com.au/education/ex-premier-urges-states-to-take-over-childcare-system-in-crisis-20200422-p54mbg.html
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://phys.org/news/2019-05-roman-polluted-european-air-heavily.html&ved=2ahUKEwiC9prMsv3oAhXJyzgGHTLqBMYQFjACegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw247NFLStcqXKmzsKiVv9W0&cshid=1587605585799
Although – re lead pollution in ancient times this is pretty interesting.
I think after everything has got back to something approaching normal or, whatever the new normal is, the tax system will have to be revisited.
Short summary.
GST to 15% with all welfare recipients over compensated as they were for GST initially.
Capital gains discount lowered from 50% to 30% on new purchases.
Tax free status of pensions from super funds increased from 60 to 65 over 15 years.
There are more but that is just a start.
We have one of the lowest sales tax rates in the world and as MB says it is a tax that the rich can’t avoid and if you overcompensate welfare recipients it should be OK except for self funded retiree which most on this blog seem to think are undeserving anyway.
Why I don’t know unless you think that thrift and good money management are somehow evil.
Why I don’t know unless you think that thrift and good money management are somehow evil.
Advantages provided by government to certain cohorts in society via favourable tax treatment is evil. Just so governments of a certain persuasion can lock in that cohort’s votes.
Where some of the toilet paper may have gone:
‘In his first 15 minutes at the dispatch box as opposition leader, Sir Keir Starmer – whose elevation to the Labour leadership in early April was overshadowed by the coronavirus pandemic – demonstrated the kind of political instinct and emotional intelligence his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn had zero capacity to achieve.
George Osborne, the chancellor under former prime minister David Cameron, gave this verdict: “After a five-year absence, Britain has an opposition again.” Osborne won’t be the only Tory who thinks that.’ SMH
Oh no!
Say it ain’t true!
Tell me it’s not about the leader!
We could change the way GST applies to businesses, just remit 10% of sales value (or whatever the rate ends up being). Reduces the amount of compliance paperwork. Impossible to avoid, and would ensure that those multi-national tax avoiders (and local tax avoiders) paid a reasonable share.
Would not be inflationary in current environment. Corporate and Personal rates could be adjusted to ensure a “fair” balance of corporate to personal taxation.
BOB LYNCH
Yes we know, all the self funded retirees worked 29 hour day ‘t mill for 50 years which is why they deserve so much tax free income. Not like those feckless wastrels on part and full pensions.
‘A cunning and more skilled politician than critics give him credit for, Johnson will know the political game has changed. An opposition has arrived right when Britain needs it most.’
Repeat the last bit Mundo…..
An opposition has arrived right when Britain needs it most.’
Lucky Britain.
I was a self funded retiree until recently. Now I am on a part pension. Does that mean I went from evil to good the day the pension was approved? 🙁
I read the article in the afr about Sweden’s herd immunity experiment with COVID-19 and the Swedish authorities seem to be saying that, if Sweden had protected their elderly better their mortality rate from COVID-19 would have approached that of the other nations in their region.
Epidemiologically I am sceptical as to the veracity of the claims made by Sweden. I say this because I look across the seas near them to the UK, who were also prepared to let COVID-19 rip through the population to enable herd immunity initially but their mortality rate shot up so quickly that they decided against it.
So, it doesn’t provide a great advertisiement for herd immunity if you look at it from the perspective of the UK experience. Or, would it have ripped through the UK population and petered out more quickly than it is doing now if they had let it rip? Is that the point of the herd immunity approach? Short term pain for long term gain?
davidwh,
You have always been an angel. 🙂
Thanks C@t but the point I was trying to make is that all self funded retirees are not wealthy tax rorters. They are far from a homogenous group.
davidwh
says:
Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 11:49 am
I was a self funded retiree until recently. Now I am on a part pension. Does that mean I went from evil to good the day the pension was approved?
Unfortunately in the eyes of some here – yes would seem to be the answer
Zwaktyld @ #165 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 11:45 am
Much of the complexity associated with the GST are mostly about ensuring that it only applies once to any particular item – no matter how many times the goods are re-sold along the supply chain (e.g. from supplier to packager to distributor to retailer to you).
Yes, by all means simplify the system, but you have to ensure that this is still true, otherwise you end up taxing the same goods multiple times.
Oh well as I am ‘evil’ I suppose there is no need for me to hand out HTV forms anymore in the electorate of Robertson for the ALP as I have done since I moved here.
davidwh
The self funded retirees I’ve heard on 2GB will consider you as having transitioned from saint to lesser being, possibly even a (gasp) Labor voter now. 🙂
davidwh @ #171 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 11:53 am
That’s the point BOB LYNCH is trying to make as well, to be fair. 🙂
I’m attending my first Zoom meeting in a minute on ‘The Power of Speech in A Time of Crisis’. It’s being run by Per Capita and Labor. Could someone send mundo a memo? 😉
Of course the Conservatives would support Trump and Morrison:
It is also the point which hurt Labor in 2019 with the franking credit proposed changes.
Barnes, there seems to be a ‘need’ for people to believe in something. No matter how unbelievable it is. This need is very well catered for by various religions and cults but in the absence of these institutions, any conspiracy will do.
Poroti anything is possible. 🙂
Mum would be pleased.
C@t
Albo, Burke and Sheldon at the Virgin press conference on Monday. Should be used as a case study at your zoom meeting of what not to say.
BOB LYNCH @ #161 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 11:37 am
Sure they can, since it targets spending instead of assets or income. A wealthy person who spends modestly avoids the tax (or at least, avoids contributing any more tax than a poorer person with similar spending habits).
I was a project manager for the GST & social security changes in 2000.
The amount collected was twice the original treasury estimates as the tax evader-cash economy was much higher than expected but they all spent money.
Just had a talk with a medical professional who told me a horror story about quarantine measures being adopted by the government. This specifically refers to hotels used for this purpose. I am not sure if it is funded by the federal government or state governments. However, the medical services provided has a smell about them which is typical Federal government MO.
Questions I would have are:
1. Does the company hired to provide the medical service to these people have any experience in this field?
2. Does the company or its principles donate or are connect to the Liberal party in anyway?
3. What percentage of funds becomes profit to this company?
4. Are the front line staff used in the delivery of this service suitably qualified to provide the service?
5. Are these medical professionals provided with adequate PPE gear?
6. Are the people in quarantine properly provided with adequate medical attention? This could include mental health as well as Covid19 related.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 12:01 pm
I’m attending my first Zoom meeting in a minute on ‘The Power of Speech in A Time of Crisis’. It’s being run by Per Capita and Labor.
___________________
Those poor bastards……
It all depends, for those that play D&D I imagine it would map like this:
Lawful Evil – Self Funded WITH lots of Franking Credits, always votes for Libs, never misses Alan Jones and gets all facts from the Australian each morning.
Chaotic Evil – Self Funded but no Franking Credits or part funded but regularly votes for Liberals, listens to Alan Jones (or other RWNJSC) and usually reads the Australian or Courier Mail (or other Murdoch Shitsheet).
Neutral – Partly self funded with no Franking Credits, sometimes reads the Australian.
Chaotic Good – Partly self funded, only reads the Australian if accidentally looking down when lining the budgies cage. Never listens to Jones. Fully funded but still somewhat addicted to reading the Australian.
Lawful good – Fully funded pensioner, smart enough to realise Liberals only ever want to screw you, may occasionally see the front page of the Australian in McDonalds while throwing in the bin with a half empty Coke as a community service.
Of course when it comes to what this lot will do, don’t be surprised if there is a trade off between Super and the Pension. I’m fully expecting this lot to legislate that pensions will need to be bought using Super at 65 or something stupid like that (i.e. $250k of Super will “buy” a pension from the Government for life)
NZ update
“Note: Three confirmed cases reported yesterday have been reclassified as under investigation to allow checks on whether they were counted in Uruguay’s case total before arrival in New Zealand. This is to prevent double counting by the World Health Organization. We had two new confirmed cases in the past 24 hours, making a total decrease of 1 case today.”
So they’re showing -1 cases today
Dark side? Plenty of female migrants workers from ex-soviet countries in Singapore.
There are many reasons businessmen travel to Singapore for client ‘meetings’.
An ex boss once told a gathering of the faithful that everyones core job was to know your client. Know which football team they support. Where their kids go to school. Their wifes name and favourite restaurant…. From others in the rarefied atmosphere of takeovers, deal making (yadda yadda) I have heard it is important to know if their client prefers Polish or Estonian. Or both.
To me, this is gold plated bullshit covering a vacuum by Morrison.
0 WA cases overnight, so that’s 2 0’s in a row.
From the live stream of the WA health minister
GoldenSmaug @ #188 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 12:32 pm
Will someone who spent the past ~40 years on the median wage even have $250k in Super today?
Morrison being … Morrison:
… says the man who resorted to “On Water Matters”, refuses to answer anything that he identifies as “Canberra Bubble” issues, has shut down parliament after already having minimal sitting time, part of a government that has seen the greatest crackdown on whistleblowers and public interest journalism. We might have been a ‘transparent, open nation’ in decades past, but no longer.
Now that’s actually a lie, surely? They stopped direct flights from China, but they didn’t ‘close off the travel of Chinese nationals to Australia’. Wasn’t there some reporting that Australian universities were explicitly directing their Chinese students to transit via a 3rd country to get here at the time?
And, of course, most of our overseas sourced infections came from elsewhere in the end, and shutting the borders to the USA was the very last thing that the government did when it was clear it should have been weeks earlier.
Still would be close to that. They talk about doing away with cash but that isnt necessary. The ATO would be able to cross reference unusual cash deposits to bank accounts. So the question is – is the black market predominantly in high levels of the economy (drug money but also big corporations) where it is able to be laundered rather than tradies etc.
Go on Scrott, say it ,you know you wanted to “Make Australia Great Again ” 🙂 Or is SASA the Down Under MAGA ?
We get tremendous advice. It’s perfect advice. And the principles we hold very dearly are perfect. Wonderful principles. Our wonderful principles guide the tremendous advice we receive. We won’t accept advice that our wonderful principles don’t agree with because it wouldn’t be perfect.
I dont look anymore. Resigned to working till death do me part.