It’s as easy as APC

A new polling industry standards council takes shape; and the coronavirus polling glut keeps piling higher.

A promised initiative to restore confidence in opinion polling has came to fruition with the establishment of the Australian Polling Council, a joint endeavour of YouGov, Essential Research and uComms. Following the example of the British Polling Council and the National Council for Published Polls in the United States, the body promises to “ensure standards of disclosure”, “encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling” and “inform media and the public about best practice in the conduct and reporting of polls”.

The most important of these points relates to disclosure, particularly of how demographic weightings were used to turn raw figures into a published result. The British Polling Council requires that its members publish “computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published”. We’ll see if its Australian counterpart to sees things the same way when it releases its requirements for disclosures, which is promised “before July 2020”.

Elsewhere:

• The West Australian has had two further local polls on coronavirus from Painted Dog Research, one from last week and one from this week ($). The McGowan government announced its decision to reopen schools next week in between the two polls, which had the support of 22.7% in the earlier poll and 49% this week, with opposition down from 43.3% to 27%, and the undecided down from 34% to 24%. The earlier poll found remarkably strong results for the McGowan government’s handling of the crisis, with 90.0% agreeing it had been doing a good job (including 54.2% strongly agreeing) and only 2.9% disagreeing (1.2% strongly), with 7.1% neither agreeing or disagreeing. No field work dates provided, but the latest poll has a sample of 831.

• The University of Melbourne’s Melbourne Institute conducted a 1200-sample survey on coronavirus from April 6 to 11, and while the published release isn’t giving too much away, we told that “about 60% of Australians report being moderately to very satisfied with government economic policies to support jobs and keep people at work”, and that “more than 80% expect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic to last for more than 6 months“.

• The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage political science blog examines local government elections held in France on March 15, two days before the country went into lockdown: turnout fell from 63% to 45%, but the result was not radically different from the last such elections in 2016. Traditional conservative and socialist parties holding up well and the greens making gains, Emmanuel Macron’s presidential vehicle La République En Marche failing to achieve much cross-over success, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National losing ground compared with a strong result in 2014.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,180 comments on “It’s as easy as APC”

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  1. Love the ‘raising taxes will drive investment away’….? Other countries heavily tax their extracting industries and raise billions in revenue, while we give the stuff away for free. Yet they stay in those countries? A mystery.
    It is strange that telling people your tax on everything (including possibly food, education and health) is going to double for example is an easier political sell than saying that franking credits, super rorts, family trust rorts, and negative gearing rorts should be curtailed. Alas, it seems true.

  2. Comment at 1003 from a poster beginning with the letter N

    Not even going to respond except to point out

    Comedy festival in Melbourne was cancelled just letting you know.

  3. Quoll @ #68 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 9:25 am

    Science ignorant nongs like Scotty from Marketing and Little(to be)proud (of) should perhaps spend some time looking at their own role in promoting zoonotic diseases through promotion of more intensive factory farming and environment degrading practices.

    Let’s hope PB’s very own enemy of biodiversity reads this as well 🙁

  4. What has happened to peoples critical thinking skills.

    Most people, most of the time – and I very much include myself – are, and always have been, stupid, ignorant, gullible, superstitious and otherwise irrational.

    The internet has simply made this universal, eternal, truth more unavoidably obvious.

  5. Victoria @ #97 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 8:00 am

    Steven

    I guess the question for this person is why they choose to go down this rabbit hole.
    I am trying very hard to make sense of it.
    Luckily my family are all sensible, but as I mentioned people in our sphere are buying into these conspiracies. WHY?

    One reason could be, that with Governments becoming increasingly secretive, speculation is the only form of analysis available.

    For some, this goes beyond logical possibilities and into fantasy.

  6. Well, that was a strange experience. I just went down to Woy Woy to do my weekly shop and the place was near deserted! Up until now, despite the Coronavirus, the place has been bustling on a Thursday. Not this week. No line of pensioners and ordinary shoppers waiting to get in after 8am, virtually no one in Coles itself. Either most people have switched to online shopping or they are running out of money.

    A few strange things have still not been restocked on the shelves yet, such as Lime Juice and my favourite brand of Dark Soy Sauce but pasta is slowly making its reappearance, as were tinned tomatoes, paper towels and even toilet paper! People weren’t rushing to grab it off the shelves either.

    Anyway, I’ll keep a watching brief over things but I hope the tumbleweed empty streets don’t presage worse times ahead for people in general.

  7. Victoria.

    Forget about the fuckwits

    A few minutes ago across the road the elderly gentleman from No 5 (where the white pages for years said I live), 94 years old, bent and with a walking stick and hobbling along, took his neighbours rubbish bin up the driveway. What a guy.

    How’s that?

  8. @ricklevy67
    ·
    8m

    I am waiting on #ScottyFromMarketing to have photo opportunities with people on ventilators and doctors in reused personal protective equipment #HappyCrisis #auspol

  9. NZ had a shortage of test kits as did Australia and the rest of the world as supply was (and still is) much lower than demand. This is why testing needs to be performed at rates to achieve maximum benefit rather than as an ongoing mass screening exercise.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/413614/covid-19-limited-testing-kits-has-scientists-searching-for-generic-alternative

    At one point NZ had 45,000 tests in stock and tested 4500 in one day as the case numbers ramped up – I assume this was one of the reasons they decided on a stage 4 lock down

    This site will help you keep track of the number of test kits available in NZ.

    https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases#lab

    The testing rate will no doubt increase as winter approaches as every patient with a temperature or a sniffle will need to be tested for C19 before admission and patients visiting GPs will all believe they have C19. So we need to ensure we have a good stockpile of test kits to last the winter.

  10. Well, that was a strange experience. I just went down to Woy Woy to do my weekly shop and the place was near deserted!

    That is how I remember it.

  11. KayJay @ #107 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 10:20 am

    Victoria.

    Forget about the fuckwits

    A few minutes ago across the road the elderly gentleman from No 5 (where the white pages for years said I live), 94 years old, bent and with a walking stick and hobbling along, took his neighbours rubbish bin up the driveway. What a guy.

    How’s that?

    Hope he wiped down the handle afterwards.
    Some people.

  12. Apparently Trump ‘disagrees with Georgia reopening. Just a bit, not so much as to stop it, strongly disagrees, safety must predominate, but just a little too soon, but supports Kemp to do what he thinks is right, loves Georgians…’

  13. ‘Trump issued the warning on Wednesday after Iranian naval boats were filmed “harassing” and “taunting” US Navy warships in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices up $2 as a result.”

    Wow! Keep the warmongering going, and oil prices will shoot up to zero dollars a barrel!

  14. Quoll

    From the Review abstract you have been quoting as your only support:

    ‘The study found several examples in which agricultural intensification and/or environmental change were associated with an increased risk of zoonotic disease emergence, driven by the impact of an expanding human population and changing human behavior on the environment. We conclude that the rate of future zoonotic disease emergence or reemergence will be closely linked to the evolution of the agriculture–environment nexus. However, available research inadequately addresses the complexity and interrelatedness of environmental, biological, economic, and social dimensions of zoonotic pathogen emergence, which significantly limits our ability to predict, prevent, and respond to zoonotic disease emergence.’

    As previously noted, the science has not demonstrated causality. ‘Associations’ aka ‘correlations’ does not cut it. There are speculations and hypotheses but causality has not been demonstrated. It goes on to say exactly what I have been saying all along: ‘…available research inadequately addresses the complexity…’.

    The Review also affirms another one of my points: that any nexus is ‘…driven by the impact of an expanding human population and changing human behavior…’. Put simply, more humans eating more wildlife is a known no no. As noted previously, the rise in human populations, the increase in density, the increase in volume of travel and the increase in speed of travel all have to be controlled for when considering the rise and spread of pandemics. It is also obvious that the more people there are, the greater the likelihood of human contacts with wildlife. Unless the studies control for increased human/wildlife interactions they end up being general statements of the possible.

    What you have been asserting as axiomatic – that the causality between ‘habitat destruction’ plus ‘climate change’ on the emergence of pandemics – is, according to the Review, not demonstrated by the currently available ‘inadequate’ science. Why? For exactly the reason I have been stating all along – that the variables are extremely complex. The data, especially time series data, has not been established. How do I know about these things? Because I was professionally heavily involved in human/environment monitoring attempts for decades.

    On the basis of your inability to understand the complexity of all this, you have been repeatedly personally abusive.

    I suggest that you stop making your false scientific claims and that you stop being personally abusive.

  15. “Victoriasays:
    Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 9:58 am
    Lizzie

    Indeed.

    Although I am surprised at how prevalent these conspiracies are being believed by people that should know better.
    What has happened to peoples critical thinking skills.”

    There are many academic studies on the effect of microplastics on cognitive ability……

    Lead poisoning in ancient Rome is highly contested (as contributing to it’s fall) but many still consider it played a part.

  16. Regressive attitude and behaviour has always been a part of the human experience.
    But we are supposed to be more educated and more informed.

    Why in dogs name would people choose to believe that Bill Gates conspiracy.

    He made his fortune in Microsoft, and worth 100 billion plus.

    He is someone who has been slowly giving his money away to causes he believes in.

    How do they reconcile that he is behind this pandemic so he can make money on a vaccine that is still be researched.
    It truly boggles the mind.

  17. Victoria wrote:

    Lizzie

    Agreed.

    as poster Steven recounted about his experience with these conspiracy nuts.

    This problem is not just in the USA or other places, we have got lots of them here as well.

    I’m wondering how those from the glitterati in Australia, muttering darkly about the government coming to get us if we install the virus tracking app, plumbing for reasons why it won’t work anyway and so on are any different to the crazies who believe Bill Gates invented the virus and the vaccine is just an excuse to microchip us all.

    We’ve had tech experts here tell us it can’t work in all cases, under all circumstances, so they won’t install it until it does. Never mind that it might still save some lives. Unless it saves ALL lives, it’s pointless…

    Eh?

    There was an article linked here this morning that stated murderers might be caught if they and their victims both had the app running and its meta data was accessed by police… as if catching murderers is some kind of bad thing.

    Anyone here planning a murder? I advise you not to install the app.

    The distrust being demonstrated by those, mostly on the Left, looking for excuses not to install the app are just as paranoid and overly dramatic as Steven’s crazy Zoombomber from the wacky Right.

    The examples given the other day by Jenna Price et al – the Census debacle, the Centrelink meltdown, the MyHealth stuff up – while broadly in the area of “Government/IT” actually have nothing to do with this app.

    The data the app proposes to collect is of nowhere the complexity of the Health, financial, asset and social records dealt with by Price’s examples. It’s actually pretty minimal, and I believe doesn’t include location information, so even if plod gets a hold of it he’s not going to kick your door down for hosting an unauthorized dinner party, or renting out the granny flat via Air B&B.

    Paranoid wackiness isn’t just reserved for the Right. Lefties have picked up a pretty good dose of it too.

  18. Re conspiracy theories
    Are they any more unbelievable than Christ rising from the dead, the virgin birth, walking on water, turning water into wine etc.
    Most religions have something equally ridiculous and a lot of people seem fine with that.

    As someone said earlier – the lack of transparency around a lot of things, and things that get revealed many years after the fact go some way to explain why people might clutch at these strange and warped ideas

    By the way, does anyone think that the first vaccine or cure for C19 will be adequately tested for side-effects before being released for use?

  19. Simon Katich says Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 10:31 am

    Apparently Trump ‘disagrees with Georgia reopening. Just a bit, not so much as to stop it, strongly disagrees, safety must predominate, but just a little too soon, but supports Kemp to do what he thinks is right, loves Georgians…’

    So if it all turns to shit in Georgia, Trump can say he advised against it.

  20. Any chance we’d be letting in WHO inspectors to investigate the Ruby Princess incident? Or a couple of high profile wedding incidents? Asking for a friend.

  21. Kate
    “Lead poisoning in ancient Rome is highly contested (as contributing to it’s fall) but many still consider it played a part.”

    This is not regarded as a credible hypothesis. The Roman Empire went into terminal decline in the 4th century AD in western Europe. By this time, the city of Rome was almost irrelevant to the Empire. Even if there was an issue with lead contamination of the Roman water supply, it played no part in the fall of the Western Roman Empire.

  22. bc @ #128 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 10:49 am

    Simon Katich says Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 10:31 am

    Apparently Trump ‘disagrees with Georgia reopening. Just a bit, not so much as to stop it, strongly disagrees, safety must predominate, but just a little too soon, but supports Kemp to do what he thinks is right, loves Georgians…’

    So if it all turns to shit in Georgia, Trump can say he advised against it.

    All. Bases. Covered.
    Trump101

  23. By the way, does anyone think that the first vaccine or cure for C19 will be adequately tested for side-effects before being released for use?

    I have little doubt that any vaccine or treatment will be extensively – adequately – tested before there are rollouts of programs for mass vaccination.

  24. “C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 10:20 am
    Well, that was a strange experience. I just went down to Woy Woy to do my weekly shop and the place was near deserted! ”

    I’ve noticed something similar. The hoarding is well and truly over due to purchase limits and it seems people are now buying less. It’s probably a combination of running down stocks in the pantry and having less disposable income.

    My daughter saw an article claiming that Coles has big meat discounts at the moment. I haven’t checked but it makes sense – possibly a high level of unsold stocks, lower exports at the moment and reduced disposable income.

    I wonder how many hoarders have been prosecuted by the potato’s Border Force as he threatened?

  25. Morrison systematically hid the modelling used as the basis for medical advice. Would his WHO inspektors get free access to that and to the relevant Cabinet papers?

    What?

  26. JohnQuiggin
    @JohnQuiggin
    ·
    10m
    Correcting @Adam_Creighton
    . As of now, the virus risk to Swedes under 60 is approximately *35 times as great* as the risk of death to Australian pedestrians under 60.

  27. The hoarding surge was guaranteed to run out of steam eventually – people only have so much space to stack toilet paper etc.

    Without an actual substantial increase in usage it was only going to be a one-off inventory adjustment. People probably are cooking more at home in place of eating out, so there probably has been some sustained lift in the consumption of food from grocery stores, but it is probably a fairly modest change. Toilet paper consumption shouldn’t have changed at all.

    (Alcohol is probably a whole different story, though!)

    What surprised me was just how intense and how long that surge lasted. I was sure it was going to end, but it just kept going and going and going…

  28. poroti says:
    Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 9:46 am
    Scrott working overtime to show what a good little lackey he is. Buying US oil, leading a WHO+China blame/distraction charge for Trump and……………..

    Australia joins US warship in South China Sea as tensions grow
    _________________________________________
    Isn’t the oil free? I’d be buying and hoarding at that price…
    As for planning a war against China, this would make a change from taking on regimes that can’t fight back…

  29. Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    ·
    2m
    It’s a wonderful scam. People like John Winston Howard dispose of income-producing capital and book it as “revenue”, then a future government has not only to forgo the income but to bail out the “too big to fail” private company.

  30. It’s a pity the law doesn’t work that way, but the person responsible for the deaths of four police was the driver of the Porsche.

  31. Murphy also argued that most of the infections from the Ruby Princess “would’ve happened whether or not it disembarked, because they were contracted on the ship”.

    This is true, and it was pointed out by Dr Chant at the time, however it surely has to be a central part of whatever investigations take place – whether the Senate committee or the NSW inquiry – as to the timing and criteria for shutting down cruises in pandemic situations. Most of the 600 infections and 21 deaths from covid19 would not have happened if the cruise hadn’t departed Sydney in the first place, and in the circumstances of a future pandemic situation surely the cruise industry must be shut down as soon as there’s any sort of outbreak.

  32. Jackol @ #132 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 10:55 am

    By the way, does anyone think that the first vaccine or cure for C19 will be adequately tested for side-effects before being released for use?

    I have little doubt that any vaccine or treatment will be extensively – adequately – tested before there are rollouts of programs for mass vaccination.

    As Mundo has already predicted, a vaccine will be released in August. So probably not a lot of testing on side-effects.

  33. the government coming to get us if we install the virus tracking app

    The government has form when it comes to invading privacy (see: metadata retention laws, cryptography backdoors, illegal/warrantless AFP raids, etc.). And could trivially do so via any app that they publish.

    Simple remedy in this case is full transparency; make the source-code public. There’s no commercial value to the app, so no reason not to publish the code.

    Bill Gates invented the virus and the vaccine is just an excuse to microchip us all

    Bill Gates has no prior documented history of “inventing” viruses or microchipping people. And there’s no plausible way of embedding an undetectable, functional, self-powered microchip within a vaccine in the first place. Let alone a useful microchip that does the myriad things claimed of Bill Gates’s hypothetical microchip.

    One thing is both possible and plausible, the other not.

    False equivalences aren’t.

    And of course if Bill Gates wanted to do something that tracks people using microchips he could just build that into Windows. Probably already does. 🙂

  34. Umm.. how many infections were Ruby Princess passengers and how many infections were people infected by Ruby Princess passengers?

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