A promised initiative to restore confidence in opinion polling has came to fruition with the establishment of the Australian Polling Council, a joint endeavour of YouGov, Essential Research and uComms. Following the example of the British Polling Council and the National Council for Published Polls in the United States, the body promises to “ensure standards of disclosure”, “encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling” and “inform media and the public about best practice in the conduct and reporting of polls”.
The most important of these points relates to disclosure, particularly of how demographic weightings were used to turn raw figures into a published result. The British Polling Council requires that its members publish “computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published”. We’ll see if its Australian counterpart to sees things the same way when it releases its requirements for disclosures, which is promised “before July 2020”.
Elsewhere:
• The West Australian has had two further local polls on coronavirus from Painted Dog Research, one from last week and one from this week ($). The McGowan government announced its decision to reopen schools next week in between the two polls, which had the support of 22.7% in the earlier poll and 49% this week, with opposition down from 43.3% to 27%, and the undecided down from 34% to 24%. The earlier poll found remarkably strong results for the McGowan government’s handling of the crisis, with 90.0% agreeing it had been doing a good job (including 54.2% strongly agreeing) and only 2.9% disagreeing (1.2% strongly), with 7.1% neither agreeing or disagreeing. No field work dates provided, but the latest poll has a sample of 831.
• The University of Melbourne’s Melbourne Institute conducted a 1200-sample survey on coronavirus from April 6 to 11, and while the published release isn’t giving too much away, we told that “about 60% of Australians report being moderately to very satisfied with government economic policies to support jobs and keep people at work”, and that “more than 80% expect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic to last for more than 6 months“.
• The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage political science blog examines local government elections held in France on March 15, two days before the country went into lockdown: turnout fell from 63% to 45%, but the result was not radically different from the last such elections in 2016. Traditional conservative and socialist parties holding up well and the greens making gains, Emmanuel Macron’s presidential vehicle La République En Marche failing to achieve much cross-over success, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National losing ground compared with a strong result in 2014.
Fulvio Sammut
Bravo! 😆
Interesting tidbit from the live stream
– WA is now random testing respiratory samples from GPs
– going to expand testing to non-symptomatic people
Fulvio, a job offer from the PMO is on its way.
Does the Trump dmin have scouts in Aus?
When asked whether looking at all options to reduce debt would include RRT or abolishing negative gearing and franking credits, SM said that the Gov was “not about raising taxes……………. in that way.”
Blobbit I just checked the official NZ government web page.
Its showing zero new cases today on the list.
But its also saying two new cases.
Mrrrmmphh!
mundo,
Osborne thinks he should be PM and is no friend of Boris or the Conservatives.
Ryan StruykVerified account @ryanstruyk
Reported US coronavirus cases:
8 weeks ago: 60 cases
7 weeks ago: 158 cases
6 weeks ago: 1,267 cases
5 weeks ago: 8,736 cases
4 weeks ago: 65,273 cases
3 weeks ago: 212,692 cases
2 weeks ago: 432,132 cases
1 weeks ago: 638,111 cases
Right now: 846,982 cases
Reported US coronavirus deaths:
8 weeks ago: 0 deaths
7 weeks ago: 11 deaths
6 weeks ago: 38 deaths
5 weeks ago: 149 deaths
4 weeks ago: 938 deaths
3 weeks ago: 4,780 deaths
2 weeks ago: 14,817 deaths
1 week ago: 30,844 deaths
Right now: 46,609 deaths
Reported US coronavirus cases:
Feb. 22: 35 cases
Mar. 22: 34,276 cases
Apr. 22: 846,982 cases
Reported US coronavirus deaths:
Feb. 22: 0 deaths
Mar. 22: 413 deaths
Apr. 22: 46,609 deaths
Blobbit
The random testing by PathWest has been occurring from almost the very beginning.
I’m still waiting for this devilish cohort of young asymptomatic carriers to unleash their fury upon us.
The LNP is still in denial.
In a Depression you don’t lower taxes for the rich and shaft the poor and win elections. Not with compulsory voting.
guytaur @ #208 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 1:09 pm
Most recent Newspoll says what?
“Bucephalussays:
Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 1:09 pm
Blobbit
The random testing by PathWest has been occurring from almost the very beginning.”
Fair enough, I hadn’t heard about it.
I can’t see that there’s a whole lot of hidden cases in WA, given the continuing low rates of hospitalisations
Cud – it’s two cases. From their explanatory note
Three confirmed cases reported yesterday have been reclassified as under investigation to allow checks on whether they were counted in Uruguay’s case total before arrival in New Zealand. This is to prevent double counting by the World Health Organization. We had two new confirmed cases in the past 24 hours, making a total decrease of 1 case today.
ar
Today’s Newspoll is irrelevant.
It’s Election Day that counts.
Real life lived experience will hopefully hit Trump by Election Day.
We know it will have for the LNP by that date.
Virgin is not going to be alone.
Blobbit
So how do they come up with the zero in the bar chart and the list?
WA reports 0 again. Excellent.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2020/04/21/foxtels-slow-death-proves-pay-tv-was-only-ever-a-transitional-technology/
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-23/coronavirus-across-australia-if-ruby-princess-never-docked/12172314
Did some shopping this morning (Sydney North Shore). Things seem to have settled down. Some stocks were a bit low but apart from hand sanitiser everything was available, including toilet paper and paper towels.
I also filled up the tank for the first time since early March. Last time petrol was about $1.40 per litre. Today is was 89.9c and I think even that might be a bit high. With the amount of driving I’m doing at the moment it will last 6 months or more.
Bu
“I’m still waiting for this devilish cohort of young asymptomatic carriers to unleash their fury upon us.”
If you drop restrictions too soon, you won’t need to wait long.
President Donald Trump expressed confidence that the coronavirus won’t hit the U.S. with the same intensity if it returns in the fall, suggesting the deadly disease “might not come back at all.”
Trump’s assertion Wednesday at a White House briefing is at odds with medical experts who say the virus could pose a threat to the U.S. for months and years to come. He made the comment after accusing the Washington Post of mischaracterizing a warning to that effect from Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/trump-says-coronavirus-might-not-come-back-at-all-in-fall?srnd=premium-asia
Too bad Hunter S. Thompson isn’t still around because it would have been interesting to see what he would have thought about Emperor Donald the Childish the 1st.
This was supposed to be the year of Europe-China diplomacy. Instead, Europeans are warning of a damaging rift.
Diplomats talk of mounting anger over China’s behavior during the coronavirus pandemic including claims of price gouging by Chinese suppliers of medical equipment and a blindness to how its actions are perceived.
The upshot is that Beijing’s handling of the crisis has eroded trust just when it had a chance to demonstrate global leadership.
“Over these months China has lost Europe,” said Reinhard Buetikofer, a German Green party lawmaker who chairs the European Parliament’s delegation for relations with China.
He cited concerns from China’s “truth management” in the early stages of the virus to an “extremely aggressive” stance by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing and “hard line propaganda” that champions the superiority of Communist Party rule over democracy.
Rather than any single act responsible for the breakdown, he said, “it’s the pervasiveness of an attitude that does not purvey the will to create partnerships, but the will to tell people what to do.”
“Now the atmosphere in Europe is rather toxic when it comes to China,” said Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/china-s-coronavirus-diplomacy-has-finally-pushed-europe-too-far?srnd=premium-asia
“Cud Chewersays:
Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 1:13 pm
Blobbit
So how do they come up with the zero in the bar chart and the list?”
I presume that the zero is based on the change in total cases. So the 3 cases they’ve removed are from previous days. 2 new – 3 old = -1
I guess they felt a bit silly saying it was -1 cases 🙂
“drop restrictions too soon”
Not to be a dick, but that type of statement annoys me. It’s easy to say, but almost entirely meaningless. Everyone agrees we shouldn’t drop restrictions “too soon”. The whole point though is “what is too soon”
Kakuru,
There is no untraced community transmission in WA and hasn’t been for weeks. The WA Government has done a good job to date but it is time to lift most of the restrictions.
Blobbit @ #224 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 1:37 pm
This …
Bucephalus @ #225 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 1:38 pm
“Bucephalussays:
Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 1:38 pm
Kakuru,
There is no untraced community transmission in WA and hasn’t been for weeks. The WA Government has done a good job to date but it is time to lift most of the restrictions.”
Which ones? Schools going back in WA I’m comfortable with. I’d let people go back to work, with suitable distancing – this hasn’t been explicitly banned, but companies have pretty much sent office based staff home.
I could also see restaurant’s and cafe’s reopen with suitably reduced people inside. I’d prefer to wait a couple of weeks for that.
Given the risk with large spectator events, I wouldn’t be comfortable with that for quite awhile longer. I’m not sure there’d be any teams to play.
Community sport is one I find quite hard to place. Internal borders I’d suggest should reopen in a few weeks as well, assuming we continue to see no cases.
The Western world didn’t give a fat rat’s clacker when China illegally invaded Tibet, imprisoned millions of Uighers and built islands and military installations in the South China Sea. At the moment there is some grumbling about their virus. Nothing will happen to China despite their culpability.
“Player Onesays:
Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 1:40 pm
Blobbit @ #224 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 1:37 pm”
That doesn’t really say anything though. It’s just your opinion that it’s too soon to do that in WA, against Buce’s that it isn’t. He clearly thinks that it isn’t too soon.
Saying we shouldn’t reopen too soon is just a parenthood statement that has almost no information content. If someone’s going to make it, then they really should offer an opinion as to when “soon” is.
13 days since we had double figure cases, 6 days since we had more than 5 cases.
Player One – what is factually incorrect about my statement? There hasn’t been an untraced case for weeks.
Will someone who spent the past ~40 years on the median wage even have $250k in Super today?
9.5% on 50k will earning 2% after fees get you there in year 36
Early retirement beckons!
Buc,
What do you propose should be done and who should do it?
Zwaktyld
Why are you using a 2% growth rate?
Kim Yong Un is too young to have had a coronary bypass given he has no family history. It’s probably an electrical ablation for AF or SVT.
There are a few really bad things you need heart surgery for at 36 though. Way worse than a coronary bypass.
Blobbit
“Not to be a dick, but that type of statement annoys me. It’s easy to say, but almost entirely meaningless. Everyone agrees we shouldn’t drop restrictions “too soon”. The whole point though is “what is too soon””
It’s unfortunate my statement annoyed you. I don’t care. Here’s some meaning…
I’d say “too soon” is merely after a handful of days having 0 reported cases. Assuming that 0 reported cases = 0 actual cases in a population of >2.5 million is naive.
Ar
I forgot to mention.
Morrison is popular not just because of the virus response. It’s also part of taking advice from unions.
According to this source, there was a case of local transmission from an unknown source, in WA, three days ago..
https://www.covid19data.com.au/transmission-sources-states
Bucephalus
says:
Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 1:50 pm
Zwaktyld
Why are you using a 2% growth rate?
I had to use something as an earnings estimate (I think you should be able to get more) and was just being open about a fairly simple back of the envelope calculation
Greensborough Growler,
Maintain the border quarantine and return everything else to normal.
If you don’t want to do it now with no untraced community transmission for weeks then when?
The government is saying Aged Care facilities should not be in lock down and residents should be receiving visitors.
Buc,
I was talking about China.
Zwaktyld
I recommend that you do some study. ASIC MyMoney website has a good super calculator.
Unless you are extremely risk averse it is reasonable that you select an investment strategy that returns 5% net or better over 36 years.
Blobbit @ #229 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 1:45 pm
A person with Coronavirus can stay infectious for many weeks (one article I read says 37 days, but it is of course not possible to be certain that even this is long enough in all cases). But it is certainly a lot longer than just two weeks.
Having no new cases for two weeks is what you would expect to see if self-isolation is actually working well. It doesn’t mean restrictions can be lifted. If you don’t want a second wave, restrictions should stay in place until enough (ideally, all) infected people – not all of whom are known – are no longer infectious.
TraceTogether
https://www.innovationaus.com/ios-a-major-hurdle-to-contact-tracing-app/
Clearly a flying squad needs to be dispatched forthwith to Singapore to teach this guy Jason Bay a thing or two about “being so negative” and his lamentable tendency to put facts before Pollyanna-sourced enthusiasm!
GG,
I wasn’t suggesting anything- just highlighting the realpolitik of dealing ( or not) with China.
We are still allowed to smoke, ride motorbikes, eat excessive carbohydrates, drive cars (4 dead cops yesterday from that) but we cannot live a normal life despite our hospitals being under utilised, ICU units nowhere near capacity.
How long for?
Political capital will be destroyed very quickly when the public realises the restrictions have gone from necessary to excessive.
Following from Rex’s blue ribbon post all public buildings etc in Victoria will be lit in blue this evening in memory of the four police who were killed yesterday in Melbourne after a routine traffic stop.
The driver of the car is now in custody. Investigations continuing as to how and why the truck crashed at the scene.
The anger and grief and raw emotion of the Chief Commissioner was palpable.
A total tragedy.
2020 is turning into a year that all of us will remember for ever.
Buce, what do you think $250k in 36 years will buy you?
Maybe a secondhand car.
https://smartasset.com/investing/inflation-calculator#EOzTU9MadM