A promised initiative to restore confidence in opinion polling has came to fruition with the establishment of the Australian Polling Council, a joint endeavour of YouGov, Essential Research and uComms. Following the example of the British Polling Council and the National Council for Published Polls in the United States, the body promises to “ensure standards of disclosure”, “encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling” and “inform media and the public about best practice in the conduct and reporting of polls”.
The most important of these points relates to disclosure, particularly of how demographic weightings were used to turn raw figures into a published result. The British Polling Council requires that its members publish “computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published”. We’ll see if its Australian counterpart to sees things the same way when it releases its requirements for disclosures, which is promised “before July 2020”.
Elsewhere:
• The West Australian has had two further local polls on coronavirus from Painted Dog Research, one from last week and one from this week ($). The McGowan government announced its decision to reopen schools next week in between the two polls, which had the support of 22.7% in the earlier poll and 49% this week, with opposition down from 43.3% to 27%, and the undecided down from 34% to 24%. The earlier poll found remarkably strong results for the McGowan government’s handling of the crisis, with 90.0% agreeing it had been doing a good job (including 54.2% strongly agreeing) and only 2.9% disagreeing (1.2% strongly), with 7.1% neither agreeing or disagreeing. No field work dates provided, but the latest poll has a sample of 831.
• The University of Melbourne’s Melbourne Institute conducted a 1200-sample survey on coronavirus from April 6 to 11, and while the published release isn’t giving too much away, we told that “about 60% of Australians report being moderately to very satisfied with government economic policies to support jobs and keep people at work”, and that “more than 80% expect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic to last for more than 6 months“.
• The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage political science blog examines local government elections held in France on March 15, two days before the country went into lockdown: turnout fell from 63% to 45%, but the result was not radically different from the last such elections in 2016. Traditional conservative and socialist parties holding up well and the greens making gains, Emmanuel Macron’s presidential vehicle La République En Marche failing to achieve much cross-over success, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National losing ground compared with a strong result in 2014.
GG
Hide your eyes. You don’t want to be associated in any way with this fool.
Just to repeat what I’ve said earlier…
The percentage of active diagnosed cases is a good proxy for the percentage of still-infectious but undiagnosed cases. Why? Every day a certain number of people are infected. Some end up being detected. Some don’t. But the ratio between the two is likely to be fairly constant. Hence, the population of undiagnosed cases will closely track the population of diagnosed cases. Eventually every case will become non infectious and if the population of active diagnosed cases trends to zero, so too with the population of hidden cases.
Nationally the number of active cases is 1,544 out of a total of 6,660 or 23%
In WA the number of active cases is 81 out of a total of 546 or 15%
I’d like to see two criteria satisfied before declaring provisional elimination
1. At least 3 weeks at zero new cases
2. Active cases at zero.
On top of that what I would like to see is very much higher levels of testing. At a scale were we are blanket testing some large groups – teachers, fifo workers, police etc.
“How long for?”
See above
Buce:’but we cannot live a normal life despite our hospitals being under utilised, ICU units nowhere near capacity.’
You want to live a normal life until the ICUs are at capacity?
At what point to you wish to pull back on the normal life so you don’t over shoot the capacity?
You will have to factor in the lag effect. Normal life today with ICUs at capacity means you will not have enough ICUs in three weeks time
Light relief.
Once again The Washington Post has published the winning submissions to its yearly neologism contest, in which readers are asked to supply alternative meanings for common words.
The winners are:
1. Coffee (n.), the person upon whom one coughs.
2. Flabbergasted (adj.), appalled over how much weight you have gained.
3. Abdicate (v.), to give up all hope of ever having a flat stomach.
4. Esplanade (v.), to attempt an explanation while drunk.
5. Willy-nilly (adj.), impotent.
6. Negligent (adj.), describes a condition in which you absentmindedly answer the door in your nightgown.
7. Lymph (v.), to walk with a lisp.
8. Gargoyle , olive-flavoured mouthwash.
9. Flatulence (n.), emergency vehicle that picks you up after you are run over by a steamroller.
10. Balderdash (n.), a rapidly receding hairline.
11. Testicle (n.), a humorous question on an exam.
12. Rectitude (n.), the formal, dignified bearing adopted by proctologists.
13. Pokémon, a Rastafarian proctologist.
14. Oyster (n.), a person who sprinkles his conversation with Yiddishisms.
15. Frisbeetarianism (n.), (back by popular demand): The belief that, when you die, your soul flies up onto the roof and gets stuck there.
16. Circumvent (n.), an opening in the front of boxer shorts worn by Jewish men.
The Washington Post’s Style Invitational also asked readers to take any word from the dictionary, alter it by adding, subtracting, or changing one letter, and supply a new definition.
The winners are:
-Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stops bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer, unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.
-Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period.
-Sarchasm (n): The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn’t get it.
-Inoculatte (v): To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.
-Osteopornosis (n): A degenerate disease. (This one got extra credit.)
– Karmageddon (n): It’s like, when everybody is sending off all these Really bad vibes, right? And then, like, the Earth explodes and it’s like, a serious bummer.
– Glibido (v): All talk and no action.
– Arachnoleptic fit (n.): The frantic dance performed just after you’ve accidentally walked through a spider web.
– Caterpallor (n.): The color you turn after finding half a grub in the fruit you’re eating.
And the pick of the literature:
– Ignoranus (n): A person who’s both stupid and an asshole
“It’s unfortunate my statement annoyed you. I don’t care. Here’s some meaning…
I’d say “too soon” is merely after a handful of days having 0 reported cases. Assuming that 0 reported cases = 0 actual cases in a population of >2.5 million is naive.”
Yeah, I know you don’t care. Do you take my point though, that “too soon” is pretty meaningless without qualifying it.
ACT 0
Not that surprising, but good.
PeeBee
Do you want the future value or present value? Is that for a lump sum or cashflow over time?
What’s your rate of return parameters?
lizzie @ #249 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 2:23 pm
‘Fool’ is too benign a description of this fucker.
Australlia records first quarter lowest emissions and lowest emissions intensity ever in the history of a national energy market, for the first qtr of 2020, despite all the sagas that have occurred. The fossil fuel lobbyists and their agents in parliament, otherwise known as the political terrorists of the LNP and the Otis group, seem to be trying damn hard not to talk about it though.
Rooftop solar installs appear to be keeping up its high levels as well despite covid19 shutdowns.
Cheaper more sustainable renewable power is delivering despite the government.
Wind, solar help push grid emissions to record low, prices to four year low
https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-help-push-grid-emissions-to-record-low-prices-to-four-year-low-61945/
“The huge additions of rooftop solar and large scale wind and solar projects combined to help drive emissions from Australia’s main grid to a record low in the first quarter, and helped push average wholesale prices to their lowest point in four years.
The Australian Energy Market Operator – in its latest Quarterly Energy Dynamics report – describes a volatile first quarter of 2020 for the main grid, which experienced days of huge demand and volatility, record temperatures, bushfires, several transmission failures that caused separations of state grids, then a spate of unusually mild weather that caused record demand lows, and finally the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, including a crash in the international oil market.”
—
“Energy minister Angus Taylor issued a statement welcoming the price falls, citing only the fall in gas prices, lower bids from “dispatchable generation” (coal and gas) and lower demand. The 412 word statement from Taylor made no mention of renewables, or their impact on the market, nor did it mention the big reduction in emissions.”
Australian rooftop solar continues to weather Covid-19 storm – at “very healthy levels”
https://reneweconomy.com.au/australian-rooftop-solar-continues-to-weather-covid-19-storm-at-very-healthy-levels-83679/
Senator Murray Watt (@MurrayWatt)
For all the rugby league fans, I asked the Chief Medical Officer about the #NRL’s plans to resume on May 28. Sounds like there’s a way to go yet – Feds expect to be consulted and has not happened
Lizzie,
What this cretin has done is a disgrace. Drug driving, speeding departing the scene of an accident. Whatever penalty he cops won’t be enough.
I’m reading that the truck driver had a black out and was in the emergency lane driving at 100k. This is what happened to the driver who smashed through my mother’s front bedroom wall at 4
am a couple of years ago.
My heart goes out to the families of the police people killed.
I hope we revisit the issue of the Liberal’s cancelling reforms to truck driver fatigue..
P1
“A person with Coronavirus can stay infectious for many weeks (one article I read says 37 days, but it is of course not possible to be certain that even this is long enough in all cases). But it is certainly a lot longer than just two weeks.
Having no new cases for two weeks is what you would expect to see if self-isolation is actually working well. It doesn’t mean restrictions can be lifted. If you don’t want a second wave, restrictions should stay in place until enough (ideally, all) infected people – not all of whom are known – are no longer infectious.”
I don’t really disagree in theory, but in practice I think it’s going to be hard to ever get to the stage that all infected people are no longer infectious. So all we’ve done now is move the goal posts from “too soon” until “what is enough infected people…”
I wouldn’t be as aggressive as Buce in lifting restrictions – I certainly don’t think it would be the time to lift all restrictions, apart from the interstate border controls. One problem with doing that is that if there is a breakout, it makes it hard to see what was the cause.
CC – that one “community transmission” case was in the Goldfields. One thing to remember is that in WA we have internal borders as well at the moment. So if you look at Bunbury for example, they have very low numbers of cases in total, and I’m not sure they’ve ever had a community case. Based on that, if the internal borders are maintained, it’s hard to justify not removing some restrictions in that region, I think.
EDIT: sorry, I think I have misremembered that last case. It was actually the RPH staff member.
Such fun today. A plumber digging holes in the garden trying to identify the various drainage pipes. Very important not to allow the sewage to be discharged into the roadside. Then more fun on Tuesday when a digger cuts a swathe across the lawn!
Luckily I’ve lived here long enough to point out where the Telecom pits are. The last thing I want is for my phone/internet to be cut off.
Here everyone, have another laugh;
‘The Liberal Party is a broad church, the home of liberal and conservative traditions. Both of these traditions have huge amounts to offer Australia in making it a stronger, fairer nation.’ SMH
GG
Cretin is just the beginning of what I’m thinking. It’s really shocked me.
“Cud Chewersays:
Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 2:35 pm
I hope we revisit the issue of the Liberal’s cancelling reforms to truck driver fatigue..”
Indeed. The problem is all the owner drivers who are happy with the way it is. Won’t happen to them etc
Cud Chewer
You already know it was a fatigue issue? How?
Truck driver fatigue reforms has killed so many more people than Pink Batts ever did. Why won’t there be a royal commission into that???
Cutting red tape – don’t you love it….
CudChewer
“1. At least 3 weeks at zero new cases
2. Active cases at zero.
On top of that what I would like to see is very much higher levels of testing. At a scale were we are blanket testing some large groups – teachers, fifo workers, police etc.”
I pretty much agree with that. I think certain folks are far to eager to become compacent simply because of a string of zero reported cases.
Terrible deaths of the Vic police officers, just workers doing the job society expects.
I normally wouldn’t link to the dailymail ripoff crew, but they have provided a set of graphic photos, videos (which they have ripped off) of this event. They have less scruples than Murdoch and 9Fax-
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8247833/Melbourne-crash-Porsche-driver-revealed-mortgage-broker-Richard-Pusey.html
Why he allegedly blacked out will be an issue for the Coronial inquiry.
Could be fatigue, could be a medical condition, it could be drugs, it could be poor judgement.
But, I agree, jumping on this to exemplify and amplify a hobby horse issue is pretty weak.
Another silver lining to the virus.
https://www.starobserver.com.au/news/inner-west-council-votes-no-to-religious-discrimination-bill/194589
———
We are still allowed to smoke, ride motorbikes, eat excessive carbohydrates….
———
What?
Are you smoking something now?
I would far rather a short delay (possibly, even most likely unnecessary) in reopening than reopen too soon and have to reintroduce isolation measures. I know many businesses who agree.
Confidence is important. Businesses don’t just want to open they want to know they can invest and stay open – and to know clients and customers are confident enough to turn up and spend.
The government services minister, Stuart Robert, was warned of concerns about workers’ safety at a Services Australia call centre nearly two weeks before a staff member tested positive to Covid-19.
NSW Health announced this week that the call centre in Tuggerah, on the NSW Central Coast, had been closed briefly for cleaning after a worker returned a positive test.
Health authorities are now testing five close contacts in the same workplace who are displaying symptoms, while some other staff who may have been near the affected staff member are in self-isolation.
SK
Yes. Business wants certainty that when they reopen they stay open.
This does not tie in with what I’m hearing and seeing. Paul Fletcher is making a sterling effort at pretending he’s saved the entertainment industry.
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-hit-australias-arts-industry-hard-and-early-our-support-package-is-designed-to-help?CMP=share_btn_tw
Nearly all Covid-19 patients put on ventilators in New York’s largest health system died, study finds
Overall, about 20% of Covid-19 patients treated at Northwell Health died, and 88% of those placed on ventilators died, according to the study. A ventilator is a device that forces air into the lungs of patients who cannot breathe on their own because of severe pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome.
The records support what doctors have been saying about the coronavirus: most people who become severely ill have some sort of so-called underlying condition. More than half, or 57%, had high blood pressure, 41% were obese and 34% had diabetes.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/coronavirus-ventilator-patients-die/index.html
Lizzie
It’s called gaslighting.
One thing I’d love to see is an actual probability calculation – the probability that there are zero cases given X number of previous zero cases detected.
Way beyond my maths ability, and the numbers would always be a bit dodgy, but I’d love to see how that probability drops with time. My guess is that the difference in probability between 2 weeks of zero cases, 3 weeks and 4 weeks isn’t that large, but that’s really just a guess.
Getting to zero probability is not going to happen in any time frame that’s reasonable – it’d be multiple months. What I don’t have a feel for is how much difference the extra time makes.
A man with an extensive criminal record working as a mortgage broker.
Of course he is.
An indication of the Abbott-Turnbull NBN capability ? A look at internet traffic volume.
(NZ)
SK – “I would far rather a short delay (possibly, even most likely unnecessary) in reopening than reopen too soon and have to reintroduce isolation measures. I know many businesses who agree.”
Sure. The devil is of course “what’s too soon”? It’s an easy thing to quantify after you do it, but pretty bloody hard to do beforehand.
Pusey may or may not be charged with speeding and/or drink and/or drug driving offences, Perhaps even reckless driving.
However I doubt he could be charged with any other offence relating to the death of the unfortunate police officers, going on what is on the newspaper report.
Police stopped him at 4.50 pm. The incident with the truck happened at 5.40 pm. Why did it take 50 minutes at the scene on a busy freeway to test, book or arrest the driver after pulling him over?
If under arrest, why was he still unrestrained (ie in the police car) fifty minutes later?
Why were not the Porsche, the people, and the police cars removed to a safer place immediately after the apprehension, if the situation was dangerous (as it apparently was)?
There will be a lot more questions to be asked, I suspect, once more is revealed.
guytaur @ #236 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 1:52 pm
He’s a clever shit.
DavidWH re ‘self-funded’ retirees- as Mr Churchill said in a somewhat different context:
The perverse system in operation since 2000 has seen the diversion of at least a trillion dollars of investment away from productive industry and into real estate.
Kronomex @ #221 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 1:30 pm
Speaking of HST, shame we’ll never get to hear the songs WZ would have written about Trump.
On the 4 police deaths: I don’t know, but the critical factor seems straightforward to me: A truck traveling at 100kph ploughed into people/cars in the emergency lane.
Why the cars were in the emergency lane seems kind of irrelevant – the porsche driver was a dick, no doubt, and should be held to account for what he is allegedly responsible for – DUI, speeding, fleeing the scene of an accident, whatever is alleged with evidence – but the deaths weren’t his fault.
lizzie @ #280 Thursday, April 23rd, 2020 – 3:13 pm
…but working as a mortgage broker. Love it.
“Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
New study suggests saliva can be as effective as nasopharyngeal swabs for detection of #coronavirus; allowing self-collection that can reduce direct provider-patient interactions, lowering the risk to healthcare system and demand on testing supply chain.”
Hopefully true as it would make mass testing much easier.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1253112392805953541
That has a link to the paper.
Were traffic violations a breach of his bail conditions? If not, why is bringing this up relevant to his culpability or otherwise?
Not defending his actions, but really, let’s just see how all this eventually pans out.
Lizzie et al
Questions also need to be asked of the driver’s employer as well. Is it not the duty of an employee to inform their employer in regards to any police matters.
But yes Fulvio’s questions are relevant.
A r says:
… referring to Right wing paranoia about Bill Gates injecting microchips into everybody versus Left wing paranoia that Morrison is trying to trick the Australian people into a police state via the tracking app.
They are both irrational paranoia.
A R wants the source code made public. It already is public, and it has been vetted, by multiple sources apparently, as “No threat”.
If you’re a crim traced to the source of your crime by police MIS-use of the app, then I have two words: tough tits.
In any case, word will get out pretty quickly if it’s a dud, or is being misused.
So, if you don’t like it, uninstall it. Turn your phone off. Let the battery run down. Buy another phone if you’re so paranoid you think they can track you even with a dead battery.
In the meantime do yourself a favour – and the rest of the community – and at least give it a go.
Steven
He may be self-employed.
———Sure. The devil is of course “what’s too soon”?———
I am not trying to be an expert in soon-ness. I am pointing out that there are considerations about what is good for the economy and businesses beyond “business closed = bad, a little risk in opening is worth taking”.
There is abundant medical and economic information and modelling that is being looked at but kept from us plebs. Multiple days of zero community transmission is but one we do see.
I fully expect and want easing of some measures very soon. Peeps are already doing this in spirit by frequenting things that are allowed but were previously avoided. Eg, cafe takeaways r busier. I just hope Morrison manages this staged opening better than he managed the staged closing.
Bucephalus:
The original TPP included Viet Nam, who have historically been invaded by China every fifty years and tend to get annoyed about that sport of thing.
That version of TPP was principally a security arrangement, but (for obvious reasons) was highly beneficial to Viet Nam in economic terms. It would have acted to blunt China’s activity in the South China Sea and in the Pacific.
Dumped by Trump. Well done!
The Australian arm of British outsourcing company Serco is hiring an extra 1,500 workers to staff call centres and healthcare facilities amid surging volumes of calls to the Australian Tax Office, Centrelink, Medicare and government agencies running the JobKeeper program.
Idiots and wankers in flash cars get pulled up multiple times a day in every major city in Australia. It barely rates a mention on page 11 of the newspaper, much less a statewide manhunt run from the front page.
I have no doubt he will and should be dealt with harshly, but however much a wanker this bloke was and is, he wasn’t driving the truck that ran into the police car.
Luckily we have courts and processes that deal with these matters, not lynch mobs.