No Newspoll this week it seems – which is unfortunate, because a report in New York Times ($) suggests coronavirus lockdowns are doing wonders for opinion poll response rates:
Even in online surveys, pollsters have also seen an increase in participation over the past few weeks. At the Pew Research Center, which does most of its polling through the online American Trends Panel, many respondents filled in a voluntary-comments box in a recent survey with expressions of gratitude.
It is inferred that “a wider variety of people are willing to tell pollsters what they think, so it’s more likely that a poll’s respondents will come closer to reflecting the makeup of the general population.”
Coronavirus is rather less conducive to the staging of actual elections, the latest casualty being the May 30 date that was set for Tasmania’s Legislative Council seats of Huon Rosevears, which was itself a postponement from the traditional first Saturday of the month. The government has now invoked a recently legislated power to set the date for a yet-to-be-determined Saturday in June, July and August. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has expressed the view that a fully postal election, as some were advocating, did not count as an election under the state’s existing Electoral Act.
Tasmania and other jurisdictions with elections looming on their calendars might perhaps look to South Korea, which proceeded with its legislative elections on Wednesday. As reported in The Economist ($):
All voters will have their temperature taken before entering their polling station (those found to have fever or other symptoms will be directed to a separate polling booth). They will also have to wear a face mask, sanitise their hands and put on vinyl gloves before picking up a ballot paper and entering the booth. Election stewards will ensure people keep away from each other while queueing and voting. Door knobs, pencils and ballot boxes will be sterilised often.
Other than that, I can offer the following in the way of recommended reading: Antony Green’s post calling for pre-poll votes to be counted under wraps on election day starting from 2pm. This would address issues arising from the huge imbalance between election day booths, only one of which processed more than 4000 votes at the May 2019 federal election, and the three weeks’ accumulation of votes cast at pre-poll booths, of which 901 cleared 4000 votes, including 208 that went above 10,000 and ten with more than 20,000 (UPDATE: Make that 370 of more than 4000 and 208 of more than 10,000 – turns out the numbers in the table are cumulative). The result is that the largest pre-poll booths are not reporting until very late at night, many hours after the last trickles of election booths runs dry.
This has sometimes caused election counts to take on different complexions at the end of the evening — to some extent at the Victorian state election in November 2018, which ended a little less catastrophic for the Liberals than the election day results suggested, and certainly at the Wentworth by-election the previous month, when Liberal candidate Dave Sharma briefly rose from the dead in his struggle with the ultimately victorious Kerryn Phelps. It is noted that pre-poll votes in New Zealand are counted throughout election day itself, which is made practical by a ban on any election campaigning on the day itself, freeing up party volunteers for scrutineering who in Australia would be staffing polling booths.
Antony also argues against reducing the pre-poll period from three weeks to two, for which there has been quite a broad push since last year’s election, as it will lead to greater demand for the less secure option of postal voting, stimulated by the efforts of the political parties.
Also note my extensive post below on recent events in Wisconsin – you are encouraged to use that thread if you have something to offer specifically on American politics.
Guytaur
Government does not need to own something to have influence over it. Buying an airline is throwing good money after bad.
I think I’ll go back to working my way through my collections of The Marx Brothers (shame Karl wasn’t funny enough to make it into the movies with the rest of his siblings) and The Goodies.
Guytaur:
I kept out of that pointless “Coal Hugging” debate, Guytaur. Don’t you dare go labelling me.
You do this shit ALL the time, with everyone.
I know it’s your natural instinct to point fingers, but in my case, on these topics, please desist.
Poroti@11;45
It’s the LNP MO. Complaining about Andrews’ virus response might strike a false note at this point – but it’s not all that surprising to see conservatives acting divisively and trying to score political points from a crisis so they don’t get marked down too badly for it. Also the State Opposition is generally so irrelevant and invisible, now even more so, that publicity, any publicity, is possibly better than none. If they keep complaining, the political climate may turn to their benefit by the time of the next State election, by which time all States are likely to be still struggling with the economic fallout of the recession. Petty, distasteful and unprincipled – but as Mundo might say (or might not, don’t mean to verbal him) sometimes it’s what gets you elected
BB
Your decision about the app is up to you.
However don’t try and dress up valid concerns about lack of trust based on experience as not credible concerns.
The app will fail because we have had governments destroying lack of trust. A proper human rights framework would have prevented that. It would also have made the debate on refugees very different.
Ending the secrecy this government hides behind is extremely valid.
Also noting the history of government with IT is also very valid. Why trust them when they have that history?
The government and Labor too have a trust deficit on the area of human rights. That includes the concept of corruption and all politicians are in it for themselves.
Restoring trust is needed for democratic governments world wide. The common refrain is lack of accountability.
So bring that accountability back. Set up legislation that ensures people can hold governments to account. Demand it from opposition. You can still argue for the better economic manager. After all we know corrupt economies are less efficient than ones that are not corrupt.
So ensuring the public confidence that government is not corrupt and in it for their mates is vital not just for politicians but debate generally. The less secrecy the more open and honest the debates about issues are.
Restore the trust and maybe just maybe people will listen and take up the option.
Apple knew this. Its why they have a whole marketing campaign and design around ensuring your privacy. They had to have trust before biometrics became accepted.
BB
YOU brought up coal huggers.
Not me. I responded. Your not liking the response tells us all you are in the IPA camp. Kill your grandkids for the economy.
By not investing in Virgin two options are left.
Let it go belly up. 16000 Australian workers lose their jobs. Workers with families. Real living breathing people. It is easy for some commentators to simply ignore the social impact of such a decision but if Virgin is allowed to fold e erroneous of those workers will go straight onto Jobseeker ( Newstart ) for who knows how long. Instead of paying income tax those 16000 workers will be reliant on welfare for a extended period of time and susceptible to all the pressures ,financial and personal ,such a move would ensure. Not a good social outcome.
Qantas would then have no competition in the domestic market and higher airfares and reduced services could result from that lack of competition.
Let Virgin go to a new overseas owner group. It could then be broken up and sold off resulting in a significant reduction or elimination of domestic services and sackings.
The federal government has already raised the issue of such a result and has not ruled out removing the requirement for the airline to use Australian workers and be guarenteed Australian wage rates and conditions.
A medium term equity investment by the Australian government in Virgin is a good economic and social outcome especially as such a investment could be returned to the government at some time in the future.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday called people who are protesting their governors’ social distancing measures “great people.”
Trump said this despite the fact the states are following recommendations of federal health officials to institute the distancing guidelines.
In recent days Trump has encouraged governors to relax those guidelines as soon as they feel it’s safe to do so.
Trump was asked on Sunday if he is worried that his tweets about liberating Kentucky, Michigan and Virginia are in any way helping to incite potential violence, as some governors have reportedly received death threats.
Trump responded: “I’ve seen the people. I’ve seen interviews of the people. These are great people.” He added that they have cabin fever and they want their lives back.
“Their life was taken away from them,” he said. “These people love our country, they want to get back to work.”
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-20-20-intl/index.html
guytaur
The IPA are hedging their bets. For covid19 They seem to like “kill your grandparents for the economy”
BB
You should try less projection.
eg. When someone tells you your argument is homophobic that is not calling you homophobic.
There is a difference. I know its nuanced but it is different.
@political_alert tweets
Treasurer, @JoshFrydenberg, and the Minister for Communications, @PaulFletcherMP are in Canberra and will hold a doorstop at 12:30pm, APH #auspol
BB: “I gave my reasons for endorsing the tracking app. I said I’d install it when it became available.
That’s probably a minority viewpoint, especially around here.”
I can foresee a pretty clear way forward with the tracking app: assuming it actually works (which is not guaranteed: we’ll see).
And that is: in 3.5 weeks time when some social distancing measures might be lifted, people will only be able to benefit from those relaxed arrangements if they have downloaded the app. Otherwise, they won’t be able to go to national parks, restaurants, beaches and whatever else gets opened up. The police can perform random checks on this.
There’d have to be some sort of exemption available for older people who don’t know one end of a smart phone from the other. But surely there can’t be too many of those around.
Anyway, it seems to me that the 0.0001% of people who genuinely care about their privacy will then be perfectly free to avoid this government intrusion into their lives. And the rest of us can have the opportunity to have a bit more fun.
An excellent article on the process of modelling, and why it is valuable, but by no means infallible.
Strongly recommended reading.
“I am a university professor, a scientist, and an infectious disease modeler. I’ve invented some COVID-19 models. My colleagues and I have spent years teaching doctoral students to derive new and better models. When I do, I emphasize that models are a tool for making our ideas clear.”
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-one-expert-is-still-making-covid-19-models-despite-the-uncertainty/
Doyley
It is not a simple case of “there are jobs” because the finances might be such that many of the jobs are cut anyway and the government cannot guarantee all jobs. The government should want to know more about why the existing owners were not willing to tip more into Virgin or what other financing options were available then there has to be strings attached and there has to be a way for the government to earn a return and a pathway for existing the business at some point.
Ryan StruykVerified account @ryanstruyk
Reported US coronavirus cases:
8 weeks ago: 35 cases
7 weeks ago: 89 cases
6 weeks ago: 558 cases
5 weeks ago: 3,485 cases
4 weeks ago: 34,276 cases
3 weeks ago: 139,714 cases
2 weeks ago: 337,620 cases
1 weeks ago: 557,300 cases
Right now: 746,379 cases
Reported US coronavirus deaths:
7 weeks ago: 2 deaths
6 weeks ago: 21 deaths
5 weeks ago: 65 deaths
4 weeks ago: 413 deaths
3 weeks ago: 2,425 deaths
2 weeks ago: 9,643 deaths
1 week ago: 22,079 deaths
Right now: 41,379 deaths
Feb. 19: 0 deaths
Mar. 19: 195 deaths
Apr. 19: 41,379 deaths
Shellbell says:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:27 am
“Swimming/wading through the blackest of black waters up to Twins Falls in Kakadu, our guide assured us that the freshwater crocodiles present would swim away.
That, and the promised absence of saltwater crocodiles, I found strangely not reassuring.“
That’s why you have a dog. Throw a stick in and see what fetches.
Quite some Twitter speculation (don’t @ me) that the gentleman in the 1st photo is the one on the right in Hawaii.. can’t see it myself
Guytaur once again argues for perfection, or nothing.
Talk about bumping off a few grannies! He’s happy to do so as long as his paranoid delusion that a simple, verified app which may actually save Granny’s life, is actually ScoMo’s Deep State coming to take him away, ha-ha, survives.
We are told again that unless there is total reform of society and government, all bets are off.
And he has the hide to mention Asylum Seeker policy in support of his argument!
The idea of independent, public verification by a trusted software invigilator that there are no nasty Easter Eggs in the app is ignored, in favour of the far more dramatic “Give me liberty, or give me death!” trope that fanatics always trot out when it’s someone else’s death they have in mind.
This is weird.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/economists-warn-pm-against-ending-social-distancing-as-job-losses-grow-20200419-p54l57.html
The letter to the PM reads like it dates from a couple of weeks back, when the possibility of Australia experiencing an Italy/New York scenario seemed realistic. It now seems rather out of date. No Government – Federal or State – is currently proposing a premature lifting of controls: they are simply saying that they’ll reconsider the situation very cautiously in 3.5 weeks time.
I assume it probably took a while for the instigator to get endorsement from all of the economists.
Perhaps they should change the addressee on the letter and send it to Trump.
Bucephalus :
That’s why you have a dog. Throw a stick in and see what fetches.
Its the reason surfers take their dogs out in the water with them
‘Bucephalus says:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 12:22 pm
Shellbell says:
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:27 am
“Swimming/wading through the blackest of black waters up to Twins Falls in Kakadu, our guide assured us that the freshwater crocodiles present would swim away.
That, and the promised absence of saltwater crocodiles, I found strangely not reassuring.“
That’s why you have a dog. Throw a stick in and see what fetches.’
haha
That’s why your neighbour has a dog.
To test your fish catch for ciguatera poison, feed some to a mongoose. If you don’t have a mongoose, your neighbour has a cat.
Bushfire Bill @ #153 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 10:52 am
Sure, BB. Keep dreaming. And pretending.
BB
Once again you argue the economy or nothing.
Your perfect economic coal jobs will kill your grandkids.
IPA 101
Ditto the rest of your arguments.
Its the perfect is the enemy of the good means you never have better policy.
Human Rights are a thing believe it or not.
That applies to refugees as much as John Howard and careerists in the Labor party don’t like that fact.
Be honest in putting human rights second to politics in the decisions.
Of course your argument explains why there is so much lack of trust.
The political class has brought that on themselves running insider lines to shut down debate on stuff they don’t like talking about.
Thats the political class losing trust because they are pursuing the perfect politics over the good.
C@tmomma @ #159 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 10:59 am
Go back to ignoring me, C@t. It’s better for your mental health.
Boerwar @ #172 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 11:24 am
Broad criteria are pain and disability.
More Guytaur fuckwittery:
Now, apparently I’m:
● homophobic (earlier post)
● a granny killer,
● a coal hugger,
● an IPA follower.
Fuck it must make you feel good sitting behind your keyboard dispensing moral assessments as freely as you do.
All I wanted was an app that’ll save lives (including Granny’s), and Guytaur sussed me out as Satan’s Little Helper.
I wish I had insight like that.
BB
I see you.
You are losing the argument so you go labelling people in a personal attack.
You take general points about the political class and make it about you.
doyley
Virgin was a failed business model before the Virus. It never made a profit. The Virus has killed whatever commercial value it had stone dead. Last traded, its shares were, I believe something like 7 cents – chump change.
There are three broad options, IMO.
1. Nationalize the landing slots and lease the rights out on a temporary basis through an auction process. We would not have two airlines we would have many, many airlines. This would kill off any notion of a single ‘national’ carrier or a duopoly.
2. Cobble together a rescue operation that is essentially buying a failure that is highly likely to continue to fail. In fact, given the likelihood of an extremely low recovery in domestic and international air traffic, given that its feeder links/ connections with other airlines will be disrupted, and given its capitalization and debt structure, it is highly likely to fail worse. There is no bridge for sale here. This option is high energy pissing away of tax funds.
3. Nationalize air travel in Australia. Virgin is going for nothing. QANTAS capitalization is around $5 billion.
Sprocket I reckon that is Nico Louw with Morrison on the beach in Hawaii
Diogenes:
From time to time Belgium shows up somewhere with an infection rate (infections / test) of close to or in some cases over 100%. This is obviously not real and stems from their policy of deeming anyone with anything that might be COVID19 as COVID19, so they routinely have more cases than they have tests.
It might also be that anyone who has died (or perhaps, anyone who has died in a nursing home with 1 or more actual COVID19 infection) is deemed to have died of COVID19 (that would be rather extraordinary, but if any nation tried to get away with it, it would be Belgium). I don’t know where to get the data, but it would be a good idea to compare the deaths to what one would normally expected and see how the difference per capita compares to Netherlands, France and Germany.
Bushfire Bill @ #176 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 11:28 am
I don’t feel sorry for you, I feel sorry for the Chinese, whom you offensively racially stereotyped and insulted in your attempts to prove how clever you were.
Perhaps you don’t remember these gems … ?
Those were just some of the lowlights.
Boerwar
From that list i would go with either 1 or 3 depending on whether the government wanted to run an airline or to foster competition between airlines. 2 is a possibility but that really depends on what existing or potential investors were willing to do.
Boerwar,
Thanks for your reply.
Well considered options.
Secure the Australian workforce with Australian wage rates and conditions and secure competition domestically. I do not see how it could be done without government investment. What form that takes I am “ open to all ideas”.
Cheers.
Speaking of Refugees
@HannahD15 posts
Breaking: Biloela family has won a partial victory in the Federal Court. Denied procedural fairness. https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahryan/biloela-family-court-case-christmas-island
Edit: Yes 3 days ago but in decades of political debate its now.
Guytaur,
Those are your words. They are not “general points about the political class”. They are addressing me personally.
I’m starting to think you don’t realise what you say.
I don’t really care about your paranoid delusions that the Deep State is out to get you. Catch the virus. Infect your own nearest and dearest. Lie in an ICU corridor alone with a plastic tube shoved down your throat for all I care. Your privacy will at least have been preserved.
In the end we are all statistics, and eventually we have to re-open our economy. Putting the proposition that permitting one extra death from the virus is the argument of a soulless econophile is a gotcha, pure and simple.”It’s either Granny or The Economy” is a completely false dichotomy. That attitude is what stops the Greens from doing fucking anything. There is always one who’s prepared to hold out for perfection.
You can write what you write because these are the earliest of early days in fighting the virus. Unemployment, bankruptcies and sickness and how they will destroy our society have not sunk in yet.
Come back and tell me about your precious concerns for your personal privacy when millions have died when we could have done something about it, but didn’t, because of a paranoid ideological viewpoint not far removed from that of the anti-vaxxers and the Trumpists… and the IPA.
Yes, the IPA. Refusal to download the app is THEIR position, not mine. So I think it’s YOU who is the closet IPA infiltrator here.
In any case, don’t bother responding. I’m off to do several hours of sanding and wall painting, right now. If I don’t respond to you it’s not because I concede your point. It’s because getting paint all over me and dust in my lungs is preferable to reading the humbug you write.
BB
Its easy to say. Thats not my argument I am not in the IPA camp..
Unless of course it is.
Twist it around however you like. My point was about trust of people in governments and you know it.
People who read my posts will know that the Grattan Institute is something of a personal bete noire.
However, this paper is pretty good IMO.
https://grattan.edu.au/report/shutdown-estimating-the-covid-19-employment-shock/
It helps that, unlike some of Grattan’s previous forays into policy debates on economic and fiscal issues, it was prepared by actual economists: including Matt Cowgill, who is a reasonably heavy hitter.
On the face of it, the modelling looks pretty right. What it shows is that, if the lockdown goes on for long enough, we are certain to be in a worse situation than even the Great Depression: and many businesses and large numbers of workers will never be able to fully recover their position.
One quite rational interpretation of the paper is that it supports trying to get the economies of Australia and the rest of the world moving again as soon as possible, even if there is some residual risk of an upward trend in new coronavirus infections. I assume that some of the other world leaders who are making noises about wanting to do this – eg, Trump, Merkel, Pedro Sanchez of Spain – have access to similar modelling and are frightened about the consequences.
Of course, the Grattan Institute house policy is that the lockdown needs to remain until elimination is achieved, so the paper reflects that. It assumes that the lockdown might need to last for a while, and therefore recommends lots more government expenditure to try to keep everything afloat. It doesn’t explain where the revenue would come from to fund this expenditure, but another Grattan Institute house policy is that tax breaks for investment should be largely wound back: not just things like negative gearing and franking credits, but even the concessional tax treatment of superannuation.
So, in my view, the policy section of the paper is the weakest. But the modelling and analysis that precedes it is very good. So a heartfelt “well done” from me to the Grattan Institute for this work.
Saw an attack ad on Don Lemon’s CNN show this morning. It went to Trump’s pathetic handling of C-19. It was very effective as the death and infection rates soar. And what was the emperor with no clothes’ response? Encourage his gun-toting base to flout social distancing rules set by Democratic governors, and referring to the Second Amendment. This dangerous cretin has to go.
@jonkudelka tweets
If the government app doesn’t immediately cause your phone to catch on fire I will be pleasantly surprised.
Bushfire Bill @ #198 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 12:00 pm
I beg to differ. In Australia, it is designed to save other people’s lives.
My understanding is that this Govt’s app is designed to notify you at a presymptomatic stage* that you have been in close contact with someone now diagnosed with Covdi19, so that you can self isolate (further) and get tested, the efficacy of which will depend on the timing, and contingently whether the test is antigen (early positivity) and antibody (slower positivity),and then proceed to follow the protocols for each scenario.
I’m not aware of any evidence that early intervention in the early part of a disease improves morbidity or mortality.
But by reducing spread, you may certainly be saving someone else’s life, someone who hasn’t got it yet.
(* I’m assuming once symptoms develop most, if not all, reasonably informed people – and I’m struggling to think of whom that would exclude – would seek testing)
Barnaby Joyce won’t be happy. How sad!
@Rob_Stott tweets
Local bookshop is sold out of the Turnbull book, and almost sold out of the second order before it even arrives
Dr. Dena GraysonVerified account @DrDenaGrayson
Here are those IDIOT #StayHome protestors whom @realDonaldTrump called “responsible.”
Where are the #masks? Where is the #PhysicalDistancing
“Cud Chewer wants to test all 25 million Australians. But that’s only a snapshot, telling us who’s infect and who’s not on that particular day (or perhaps week). We won’t catch everyone in the net. Some will forget to submit for testing. Some will actively avoid it. Then we have to do it all again.”
Ok lets correct a few errors there BB
1. I’d like to see everyone in the country tested. For sure. However, what I’ve mostly been on about is mass testing. Testing large enough samples to get a handle on the true rate of infection. Blanket testing of certain groups (such as essential workers.)
2. What you really don’t get is that if an infected person has a 60 percent chance of infecting someone else, there is also a 40 percent chance of that person NOT infecting someone else. Hence breaking the chain of infection. Eventually the laws of probability catch up with you and every chain of infection is broken and thus no more people are infected.
PROVIDED WE DON’T CHANGE WHAT WE ARE DOING NOW. Got it?
@gedkearney tweeted
Self isolation and working from home is changing behaviours. Sometimes oddly.
Here are my top 10 #Coronaconfessions
1. I pretended the video wasn’t working on my zoom so I could finish the last corner of my jigsaw puzzle during the meeting.
meher @1:05
At least you’re being open and honest about your fears.
I wonder if someone with access to facial recognition software has compared the images.
EGT
As you are on the board, following past questions about early interventional respiratory assistance, I’ve been meaning to show you this latest recommended flow plan for the management of patients with severe to critical Covid19 – assembled on both evidence and consensus based recommendations.
https://covid19evidence.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NATIONAL-COVID-19_TASKFORCE_FLOW-CHART_2_SEVERE-CRITICAL_v2.0_16.4.2020.pdf
(distributed by the Australian Society of Anaesthetists)
Even I am impressed with zero cases in Queensland today. I wasn’t expecting it quite so soon. It will most likely be a one-off. Watch the pattern in other states as the case numbers sputter.
Frydenberg and Fletcher on Facebook et al vs. Murdoch et al: