What the papers say

Random notes on coronavirus and opinion poll response rates, election postponements and a call to give counting of pre-poll votes a head start on election night.

No Newspoll this week it seems – which is unfortunate, because a report in New York Times ($) suggests coronavirus lockdowns are doing wonders for opinion poll response rates:

Even in online surveys, pollsters have also seen an increase in participation over the past few weeks. At the Pew Research Center, which does most of its polling through the online American Trends Panel, many respondents filled in a voluntary-comments box in a recent survey with expressions of gratitude.

It is inferred that “a wider variety of people are willing to tell pollsters what they think, so it’s more likely that a poll’s respondents will come closer to reflecting the makeup of the general population.”

Coronavirus is rather less conducive to the staging of actual elections, the latest casualty being the May 30 date that was set for Tasmania’s Legislative Council seats of Huon Rosevears, which was itself a postponement from the traditional first Saturday of the month. The government has now invoked a recently legislated power to set the date for a yet-to-be-determined Saturday in June, July and August. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has expressed the view that a fully postal election, as some were advocating, did not count as an election under the state’s existing Electoral Act.

Tasmania and other jurisdictions with elections looming on their calendars might perhaps look to South Korea, which proceeded with its legislative elections on Wednesday. As reported in The Economist ($):

All voters will have their temperature taken before entering their polling station (those found to have fever or other symptoms will be directed to a separate polling booth). They will also have to wear a face mask, sanitise their hands and put on vinyl gloves before picking up a ballot paper and entering the booth. Election stewards will ensure people keep away from each other while queueing and voting. Door knobs, pencils and ballot boxes will be sterilised often.

Other than that, I can offer the following in the way of recommended reading: Antony Green’s post calling for pre-poll votes to be counted under wraps on election day starting from 2pm. This would address issues arising from the huge imbalance between election day booths, only one of which processed more than 4000 votes at the May 2019 federal election, and the three weeks’ accumulation of votes cast at pre-poll booths, of which 901 cleared 4000 votes, including 208 that went above 10,000 and ten with more than 20,000 (UPDATE: Make that 370 of more than 4000 and 208 of more than 10,000 – turns out the numbers in the table are cumulative). The result is that the largest pre-poll booths are not reporting until very late at night, many hours after the last trickles of election booths runs dry.

This has sometimes caused election counts to take on different complexions at the end of the evening — to some extent at the Victorian state election in November 2018, which ended a little less catastrophic for the Liberals than the election day results suggested, and certainly at the Wentworth by-election the previous month, when Liberal candidate Dave Sharma briefly rose from the dead in his struggle with the ultimately victorious Kerryn Phelps. It is noted that pre-poll votes in New Zealand are counted throughout election day itself, which is made practical by a ban on any election campaigning on the day itself, freeing up party volunteers for scrutineering who in Australia would be staffing polling booths.

Antony also argues against reducing the pre-poll period from three weeks to two, for which there has been quite a broad push since last year’s election, as it will lead to greater demand for the less secure option of postal voting, stimulated by the efforts of the political parties.

Also note my extensive post below on recent events in Wisconsin – you are encouraged to use that thread if you have something to offer specifically on American politics.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

769 comments on “What the papers say”

Comments Page 6 of 16
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  1. @MyFirstCousin tweets

    Next week’s Insiders panel, Rowan Dean, Alan Jones (via Skype), Peta Credlin and last but not least to bring some intellectual discussion on to the show, Craig Kelly.

  2. If the government legislates to isolate the app and the data to a specific context (Covid-19 contact tracing) then I’ll download and use the app.
    It’s a minor exercise to draft the legislation and get it passed when parliament sits (which they can do if they set their mind to it without too much difficulty).

    I just don’t trust them at the moment. I understand how the technology works but if they know that my phone was within a few metres of someone elses phone at a certain time and place and that person is a drug dealer or otherwise nefarious then I’m bloody certain the AFP and State police forces would love to get the data.

    I have nothing to hide, if I discovered someone was a drug dealer than I’m likely to call the cops but the “if you’ve done nothing wrong you’ve got nothing to hide attitude” is bullshit, every single demagogue in history has said just that.

    If “they” discover that my phone was within a metre of the phone of someone from an opposing political party at a certain time and date then “they” will know or suspect my political affiliation and could deny or adjust my access to certain services or simply add me to a list given to their political spooks of “enemies”. This is just too powerful to trust to the likes of Dutton without some kind of checks and balances in place.

  3. Itza @1:17

    “My understanding is that this Govt’s app is designed to notify you at a presymptomatic stage* that you have been in close contact with someone now diagnosed with Covdi19, so that you can self isolate (further)”

    Precisely. What a lot of people don’t realise about this virus is its long incubation period. That’s actually a weakness because it means you can catch potential cases (through tracking) before they become infectious.

  7. Smaug

    For me its simple. Germany has trust and is able to have widespread use of electronic health records and apps.

    The EU has privacy laws and Germany is famous for its tell Google to forget me legislation.

    Enact privacy laws based on the EU then things like apps and electronic health records will be trusted. Along with a lot of other government services.

    A Treaty with the First People. A Human Rights Bill and a Federal ICAC will go a long way to restore trust in government and combat the extreme right and left populist narrative of they are all in it for themselves and cannot be trusted.

  8. The only problem with Robb Stott’s tweet is he doesn’t provide the geographical location of his local bookshop.

  9. NEW: U.S. reports 24,498 new cases of coronavirus and 1,774 new deaths.

    Total of 759,467 cases and 40,677 deaths.

    Flattening of a very high base…

  10. Just watching Jim Chalmers presser now.

    He needs to change up his delivery – it’s just too mono-tone and boring.

    He needs to be less robotic and show a bit of flare and panache. The media and casual observers engage with characters.

  12. guytaur @ #251 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 1:33 pm

    @MyFirstCousin tweets

    Next week’s Insiders panel, Rowan Dean, Alan Jones (via Skype), Peta Credlin and last but not least to bring some intellectual discussion on to the show, Craig Kelly.

    Most amusing listening to the Sheridan meltdown this morning.

    Most listeners would’ve had a good laugh at him. Good times.

  13. Bolsonaro shows Trump the way – attend one of those “no lockdown” rallies yourself:

    Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro joined a rally in the country’s capital on Sunday, where protesters called for an end to quarantine measures and some urged military intervention to shut down Congress and the Supreme Court.

    Congress and the Supreme Court have supported social isolation measures imposed by governors.

    The President didn’t wear a mask and coughed several times while speaking to the crowd of a couple of hundred supporters in Brasilia.

    https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-20-20-intl/h_98688baa1224b3a0aff66ac7a3ed3200

  14. GoldenSmaug @ #252 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 1:34 pm

    If the government legislates to isolate the app and the data to a specific context (Covid-19 contact tracing) then I’ll download and use the app.
    It’s a minor exercise to draft the legislation and get it passed when parliament sits (which they can do if they set their mind to it without too much difficulty).

    I just don’t trust them at the moment. I understand how the technology works but if they know that my phone was within a few metres of someone elses phone at a certain time and place and that person is a drug dealer or otherwise nefarious then I’m bloody certain the AFP and State police forces would love to get the data.

    I have nothing to hide, if I discovered someone was a drug dealer than I’m likely to call the cops but the “if you’ve done nothing wrong you’ve got nothing to hide attitude” is bullshit, every single demagogue in history has said just that.

    If “they” discover that my phone was within a metre of the phone of someone from an opposing political party at a certain time and date then “they” will know or suspect my political affiliation and could deny or adjust my access to certain services or simply add me to a list given to their political spooks of “enemies”. This is just too powerful to trust to the likes of Dutton without some kind of checks and balances in place.

    I’ve decided to take up Jacinda Arderns daily diary solution rather than have anything to with the double dolt Stuart Roberts app.

  20. Can’t wait to see Alan Jones ‘at home’. I once saw him in a pink track suit at Honolulu Airport. I kid you not.

  23. “ACT update
    The ACT has recorded one new Covid-19 case in the past 24 hours, bringing the total number to 104.”

    Looks like lockdown continues then 😉

  24. Prime Minister Ardern announcing a move from stage 4 to stage 3 from next week and a further review a fortnight after that.

    Great work PM. A great leader.

  25. Alpha Zero @ #271 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 1:59 pm

    Betaface has Nico at a 63% match to the Hawaii photo.
    https://www.betafaceapi.com/demo_old.html

    It’s not the greatest thing – it is quite old…

    All things considered – like how many people does Morrison know looking vaguely similar, let alone really similar, with whom he would hang out on holidays with, do goofy adolescent un-prime ministerial whatever those hand sign things are, and be a complete dork – I’m calling it a match. Wonder if he belongs to any – you know- church groups.

  31. ok..watching Jacinta Ardern on ABC24 giving a briefing on NZ’s direction re: Covid-19.

    FFS, the difference between her approach and Trumps………??? There just is no valid comparison.

    More believable than Smoko i think, although even he is nowhere near the poisonous dregs that are Trump, and to be fair he has state premiers and a party of RWNutjobbies to deal with.

    Ardern treats NZ people like adults.

  33. There were 9 new cases in NZ today. If NZ goes to stage 3 from Monday 27th April with the virus not eliminated, she is following Australia’s suppression strategy.

  34. imacca @ #281 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 2:12 pm

    ok..watching Jacinta Ardern on ABC24 giving a briefing on NZ’s direction re: Covid-19.

    FFS, the difference between her approach and Trumps………??? There just is no valid comparison.

    More believable than Smoko i think, although even he is nowhere near the poisonous dregs that are Trump, and to be fair he has state premiers and a party of RWNutjobbies to deal with.

    Ardern treats NZ people like adults.

    She is VERY engaging and VERY competent.

    We have a few engaging mp’s, but few as competent.

  38. michael

    For your enlightenment the WHO definition of ‘elimination’
    …………………………………………………………………………………..
    Elimination
    Elimination Reduction to zero (or a very low defined target rate) of new cases of an infectious disease in a defined geographical area as a result of deliberate efforts; continued measures to prevent re-establishment of transmission are required.

    Elimination requires continued measures to prevent re-establishment of disease transmission.
    https://vaccine-safety-training.org/elements/articles/eradication-difference.html

  39. poroti says:
    Monday, April 20, 2020 at 2:11 pm
    Cud Chewer

    I was going to post that perhaps an envious Gladys pushed one of hers over the border .

    Oh well, the border fence will have to go up now.

  40. National Australia Bank flags $775 million hit to first-half earnings

    So they’ll get $1.7 billion in profits for the first half of 2020 instead of $2.5 billion. Yawn. Still a mountain of money.

  41. Rex: “Prime Minister Ardern announcing a move from stage 4 to stage 3 from next week and a further review a fortnight after that. Great work PM. A great leader.”

    ScoMo and the eight Premiers/Chief Ministers have achieved equally good results without ever having to go beyond a stage 3. So that’s even better work in my book.

  43. “Cud Chewersays:
    Monday, April 20, 2020 at 2:11 pm
    Blobbit where do you get that info from?”

    Guardian live blog.

  44. The WHO performance in the virus’s outbreak in China left a lot to be desired.
    If Ardern’s is relaxing restrictions before the virus is eliminated, she is now not going for 100% zero cases as rapidly as possible. She realises the economy now has to be considered as well. Like Australia.

  46. poroti: “Elimination Reduction to zero (or a very low defined target rate) of new cases of an infectious disease in a defined geographical area as a result of deliberate efforts; continued measures to prevent re-establishment of transmission are required.”

    Thanks, that’s interesting. Then, as I and a number of others on PB have been saying for a while, there seems to be no practical difference between the goals of “elimination” and “suppression”. No wonder Australian Government ministers and officials, and even Daniel Andrews the other day, have been describing their goal as “suppression/eradication”.

  48. citizen, itza

    I say it’s a match. All he needs is a haircut. The hairline is virtually identical, so are eyebrows and eyes.
    Isn’t this the people Scomo bumped into by chance in Hawaii, who reported to the media that he’s a lovely bloke?

    Another effing pictorial PR setup. It’s time the MSM woke up.

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