What the papers say

Random notes on coronavirus and opinion poll response rates, election postponements and a call to give counting of pre-poll votes a head start on election night.

No Newspoll this week it seems – which is unfortunate, because a report in New York Times ($) suggests coronavirus lockdowns are doing wonders for opinion poll response rates:

Even in online surveys, pollsters have also seen an increase in participation over the past few weeks. At the Pew Research Center, which does most of its polling through the online American Trends Panel, many respondents filled in a voluntary-comments box in a recent survey with expressions of gratitude.

It is inferred that “a wider variety of people are willing to tell pollsters what they think, so it’s more likely that a poll’s respondents will come closer to reflecting the makeup of the general population.”

Coronavirus is rather less conducive to the staging of actual elections, the latest casualty being the May 30 date that was set for Tasmania’s Legislative Council seats of Huon Rosevears, which was itself a postponement from the traditional first Saturday of the month. The government has now invoked a recently legislated power to set the date for a yet-to-be-determined Saturday in June, July and August. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has expressed the view that a fully postal election, as some were advocating, did not count as an election under the state’s existing Electoral Act.

Tasmania and other jurisdictions with elections looming on their calendars might perhaps look to South Korea, which proceeded with its legislative elections on Wednesday. As reported in The Economist ($):

All voters will have their temperature taken before entering their polling station (those found to have fever or other symptoms will be directed to a separate polling booth). They will also have to wear a face mask, sanitise their hands and put on vinyl gloves before picking up a ballot paper and entering the booth. Election stewards will ensure people keep away from each other while queueing and voting. Door knobs, pencils and ballot boxes will be sterilised often.

Other than that, I can offer the following in the way of recommended reading: Antony Green’s post calling for pre-poll votes to be counted under wraps on election day starting from 2pm. This would address issues arising from the huge imbalance between election day booths, only one of which processed more than 4000 votes at the May 2019 federal election, and the three weeks’ accumulation of votes cast at pre-poll booths, of which 901 cleared 4000 votes, including 208 that went above 10,000 and ten with more than 20,000 (UPDATE: Make that 370 of more than 4000 and 208 of more than 10,000 – turns out the numbers in the table are cumulative). The result is that the largest pre-poll booths are not reporting until very late at night, many hours after the last trickles of election booths runs dry.

This has sometimes caused election counts to take on different complexions at the end of the evening — to some extent at the Victorian state election in November 2018, which ended a little less catastrophic for the Liberals than the election day results suggested, and certainly at the Wentworth by-election the previous month, when Liberal candidate Dave Sharma briefly rose from the dead in his struggle with the ultimately victorious Kerryn Phelps. It is noted that pre-poll votes in New Zealand are counted throughout election day itself, which is made practical by a ban on any election campaigning on the day itself, freeing up party volunteers for scrutineering who in Australia would be staffing polling booths.

Antony also argues against reducing the pre-poll period from three weeks to two, for which there has been quite a broad push since last year’s election, as it will lead to greater demand for the less secure option of postal voting, stimulated by the efforts of the political parties.

Also note my extensive post below on recent events in Wisconsin – you are encouraged to use that thread if you have something to offer specifically on American politics.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

769 comments on “What the papers say”

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  1. Some of the quality items from a source with credentials lately extolled by Mr. K. Rudd and Mr. M. Turnbull.

    Recommendations – Minus Eleventy.

    Good morning from Newcastle. Looks like an overcast day – maybe not a good day for lawn mowing, but excellent for meditation and contemplation of past sins.

    Coffee for two Muriel – ☕☕

  2. Americans at WHO gave real-time information to Trump administration

    More than a dozen U.S. researchers, physicians and public health experts, many of them from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, were working full time at the Geneva headquarters of the World Health Organization as the novel coronavirus emerged late last year and transmitted real-time information about its discovery and spread in China to the Trump administration, according to U.S. and international officials.

    The presence of so many U.S. officials undercuts President Trump’s assertion that the WHO’s failure to communicate the extent of the threat, born of a desire to protect China, is largely responsible for the rapid spread of the virus in the United States.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/americans-at-world-health-organization-transmitted-real-time-information-about-coronavirus-to-trump-administration/2020/04/19/951c77fa-818c-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

  3. Morning.

    Skipping quickly through last night’s posts, there was talk about false negative testing, and some finger pointing at the virus, mutations etc. I think a likely factor could be poor sampling technique, and the failure to collect adequate material. The advice is to stand to the side of the person being sampled, to avoid being coughed on, and oropharyngeal and/or nasal swabbing isn’t all that straightforward even when you can see what you’re doing, and especially with nasal swabbing, is somewhat counterintuitive for both parties.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The papers are full of what’s in the Turnbull book this morning so I will leave you to sort out what you want to read about it. Nevertheless, the book has stirred up the Liberal Party no end!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/liberal-party-conservatives-want-immediate-expulsion-of-turnbull-20200419-p54l7h.html
    This stinging contribution from Bruce Haigh is a MUST READ!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6723390/virus-a-wake-up-call-abroad-and-at-home/?cs=14258
    In examining Morrison’s performance on the pandemic Shaun Carney says that the emergency measures are a solid start. We’ll have a better idea of his ultimate success in getting us through this horror show when we see how much imagination and flexibility he applies to the reconstruction that must inevitably follow.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-week-is-a-long-time-in-politics-of-covid-19-20200417-p54kwz.html
    In a very interesting contribution three economic professors explain why some commentators’ concerns show a failure to distinguish between the cyclical budget deficit and the structural budget deficit.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/even-at-130-billion-jobkeeper-package-is-a-steal-20200417-p54kut.html
    For the AFR, writer Pamela Williams describes the five weeks that shocked Team Australia to the financial limit.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/five-weeks-that-shocked-team-australia-to-the-financial-limit-20200419-p54l85
    The SMH editorial says that despite the outcry from the right, Turnbull’s book makes the case for a moderate, tolerant Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-memoir-makes-case-for-a-moderate-tolerant-australia-20200419-p54l76.html
    And Tony Wright says that, trying to jab Turnbull, the PM’s office has poked itself in the eye.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/trying-to-jab-turnbull-pm-s-office-pokes-itself-in-the-eye-20200419-p54l6s.html
    Critics of cash stimulus often argue it can be ineffective because people will be too frightened to spend the money in a crisis. But the latest data shows that fear is unfounded writes Andrew Charlton who opines that more will be needed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-s-cash-stimulus-worked-but-households-will-likely-need-more-20200419-p54l7j.html
    Shane Wright says that the government is facing pressure from small businesses to make JobKeeper changes to help firms survive and keep their staff.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/jobkeeper-changes-demanded-as-businesses-face-solomon-like-choices-20200419-p54l3y.html
    The Canberra Times editorial begins with, “Depending on how you look at it, it could seem sad that it has taken a worldwide pandemic – a global health crisis – for us to finally realise how important our health services are. And not just that they are important – they will be key to getting us through this crisis.”
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6726995/now-is-the-time-to-step-back-and-let-the-medical-profession-do-its-job/?cs=14258
    Jennifer Duke looks at the role of technology to lead us into the next age.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/artificial-intelligence-trackless-trams-ideas-for-australia-s-post-coronavirus-economy-20200417-p54kp0.html
    Cara Waters tells us how the coronavirus is reshaping our relationship with technology.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/we-are-all-interconnected-coronavirus-is-reshaping-our-relationship-with-technology-20200417-p54kqm.html
    Australians shouldn’t worry about rising public debt as the federal government can roll it over indefinitely, a think tank has said. Instead, governments should be encouraged to borrow even more money to protect jobs and boost economic activity writes Euan Black.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/04/20/coronavirus-public-dept-per-capita/
    Governors eager to rescue their economies and feeling heat from Trump are moving to ease restrictions despite warnings. Madness! But then again it IS America.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/encouraged-by-trump-protesters-pressure-governors-over-lockdown-20200419-p54l7k.html
    The federal public service has redeployed more than 1100 Canberra-based staff to Services Australia as the agency responds to heightened demand amid COVID-19 restrictions.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6727628/aps-redeploys-1100-staff-in-response-to-coronavirus-pandemic/?cs=14264
    Jennifer Hewett nicely explains the problem Morrison will have in getting sufficient public take up of the COVID-19 contact recording app. IMHO the government must strongly take the word “tracking” out of it.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/barnaby-isn-t-the-only-one-afraid-of-government-tracing-20200419-p54l7b
    Greg Jericho with the good, the bad and the (possibly) ugly in the IMF projections for Australia.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/19/the-good-the-bad-and-the-possibly-ugly-in-the-imf-projections-for-australia
    The Conversation provides us with the charts that show coronavirus pushing up to a quarter of the workforce out of work.
    https://theconversation.com/the-charts-that-show-coronavirus-pushing-up-to-a-quarter-of-the-workforce-out-of-work-136603
    Rich Lister Vivek Sehgal has a blunt message for the Morrison Government’s new manufacturing taskforce and that is to bring back car manufacturing.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/auto-parts-billionaire-says-bring-car-making-back-20200418-p54l3b
    The recent and alarming reaction of sections of the public to a perceived threat of commodity shortages is nothing new, either globally or in Australia.
    https://independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/the-shortage-of-goods-during-covid-19-recalls-the-tea-panic-of-1942,13800
    The Australian government’s duty is first and foremost to its citizens. Are we big enough to help those who fuel the economy and stop them becoming destitute asks Eryk Bagshaw.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-can-be-more-generous-than-the-sum-of-its-parts-20200419-p54l5s.html
    From Quillette – Long after the pandemic has receded, its long-term impact on our society and political life will continue. Just as plagues past have reshaped the trajectory of cities and civilizations, sometimes with fearsome morbidity, COVID-19 is already having a profoundly disruptive impact on our political future.
    https://quillette.com/2020/04/18/viral-politics/
    Doctors are becoming concerned at the reduction, and lateness, of presentation of children to hospitals during this pandemic. Disturbingly though, the number of unexplained fractures has risen as rates of domestic violence rise – some even inflicted by siblings
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/doctors-fear-for-children-amid-pandemic-panic-20200419-p54l62.html
    The bushfires and the COVID-19 pandemic have produced grievances about our government, which is a good reason to review the Australian Constitution, writes David Muir.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/bushfire-and-covid-19-crises-reveal-need-for-constitutional-overhaul,13809
    Australia’s $55b car dealership sector is pleading with the government to come to its assistance after sales fell more than 60 per cent reports Adele Ferguson.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/australia-s-55b-car-dealers-teeter-as-sales-plummet-20200419-p54l56
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how lives versus the economy is a statistical calculation. He does have a valid point that at some time in the future this will be addressed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/lives-versus-the-economy-is-a-statistical-calculation-20200417-p54ku3.html
    Matthew Knott tells us about the baptism of fire that George Sinodinos is experiencing in New York.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/pandemic-gives-arthur-sinodinos-baptism-of-fire-as-us-ambassador-20200418-p54kz9.html
    Forcing Facebook and Google to pay Australian publishers for news content will spark a series of crisis meetings at their headquarters in the United States says Jennifer Duke.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/making-facebook-and-google-pay-for-australian-news-is-a-wake-up-call-20200419-p54l7s.html
    Paul Kelly says the policy leap to force tech giants to pay for news content is designed to save the mainstream media and the business of journalism. The Morrison government always had this intent — but the accelerated timing is driven by the COVID-19 crisis and the plunder it has brought to media revenues.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/policy-will-end-the-plunder-and-save-mainstream-media/news-story/f79eadbc0878059f38c347e8504bddcc
    Johanna Leggatt wonders if the coronavirus will slow the manic pace of our modern lives.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/20/farewell-workplace-burnout-will-coronavirus-slow-the-manic-pace-of-our-modern-lives
    It looks like Singapore might have lost the plot on COVID-19.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/singapore-sees-huge-surge-in-new-virus-cases-20200419-p54l53.html
    Boris Johnson’s government has come under pressure to defend its handling of the coronavirus pandemic after Michael Gove was forced to admit that the prime minister had missed five key emergency meetings when the crisis first hit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/pm-was-missing-in-action-during-early-phase-of-pandemic-claims-labour
    According to Simon Tisdall, Trump is playing a deadly game in deflecting COVID-19 blame to China. It looks like Tisdall has had enough of the Idiot-in-Chief.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2020/apr/19/trump-is-playing-a-deadly-game-in-deflecting-covid-19-blame-to-china
    CEOs, not the unemployed, are America’s real ‘moral hazard’ opines Robert Reich.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/18/coronavirus-stimulus-checks-unemployment-benefits
    Michael Pascoe has an honest look at the high cost of keeping people alive. It’s noemeting that cannot be ignored.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/04/19/coronavirus-michael-pascoe/
    Samantha Dick reports that the Coronavirus lockdown is taking a heavy toll on Australian couples, as a growing number of people seek to get divorced or receive relationship counselling to save their marriages.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/04/19/coronavirus-lockdown-divorce/
    Former DFAT health specialist Ben Rolf goes inside the workings of the WHO and defends its leader.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-need-ghebreyesus-to-lead-who-through-this-crisis-20200418-p54l0n.html
    The Australian reports that a global child exploitation sting triggered by a US Department of Homeland Security investigation has rescued four Australian children as young as two months old who were used to produce and ­exchange child rape videos and images through online paedophile networks around the world.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/police-bust-horrific-child-sex-abuse-ring-spread-across-five-states/news-story/0a6932c8799d2f8bdf73930509cd503d
    RCR Tomlinson, the failed engineering group, was insolvent for three weeks before it went into administration, liquidator McGrathNicol has concluded as investigations continue into whether the company’s former directors breached their duties. Naughty!
    https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/rcr-tomlinson-insolvent-weeks-before-administration-20200417-p54kqu
    Sir David Attenborough has urged people to “stop waste of any kind”, saying the world is precious and should be “celebrated and cherished”. The broadcaster and naturalist warns humans have a “last chance” to change their behaviour and save the planet, as he urged politicians to address “the biggest problem humanity has ever faced”.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/environment/2020/04/19/david-attenborough-last-chance-warning-planet/

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Alan Moir

    Matt Golding



    Jim Pavlidis

    Mark David


    John Spooner
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/cd67d1db7ac2e15a0b27f1cd94057438?width=1024

    From the US



  5. Swimming/wading through the blackest of black waters up to Twins Falls in Kakadu, our guide assured us that the freshwater crocodiles present would swim away.

    That, and the promised absence of saltwater crocodiles, I found strangely not reassuring.

  6. KayJay, howdy do. Cloudy here too, prefixed by a sunrise of the prettiest duck egg blue slashed through with ribbons of a luminous pink.

  7. Meeting/representing other professionals is one of the most interesting elements of legal work.

    Hopelessly generalising, engineers are among the least willing to accept advice and doctors are the most curious about the legal profession.

    Representing other lawyers is a free for all.

  8. Stuart Robert appears to give the green light to bonkers and drug dealers..

    “Minister for Government Services, Stuart Robert, said the app would not record any location data meaning authorities would not be able to tell where you were when you came into contact with someone infectious.

    Robert was asked if the government would be able to tell if a person caught the disease from their lover or drug dealer.

    “No,” Robert told Sky. “All we care about is who the person was next to…from a health point of view.

    “So let’s take your example of the drug dealer and they spend 15 minutes within 1.5 metres of someone who’s contracted the virus.

    “Then, state health would give them a call if both of those people are using the app and say, ‘hey, you’ve been in proximity, you might want to come in and get tested.’

    “Because there’s no geolocation no one knows where the young person was or what they were doing, there’s no surveillance at all.”

    The app will begin deleting a user’s data on a rolling daily basis after 14 days if a person and their contact history remain virus-free.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-global-covid-19-cases-surpass-2-3-million-us-death-toll-approaching-40-000-australia-s-death-toll-stands-at-71-20200419-p54l9h.html

  9. Shellbell

    Up North I had a simple rule when it came to bodies of water. Assume there is a crocodile in it. It’s the only way to go.

  10. Shellbell @ #8 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 7:27 am

    Swimming/wading through the blackest of black waters up to Twins Falls in Kakadu, our guide assured us that the freshwater crocodiles present would swim away.

    That, and the promised absence of saltwater crocodiles, I found strangely not reassuring.

    And in Edith Falls (Katherine) I swam in blissful ignorance. Providence is underrated.

  11. Shellbell @ #10 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 7:31 am

    Meeting/representing other professionals is one of the most interesting elements of legal work.

    Hopelessly generalising, engineers are among the least willing to accept advice and doctors are the most curious about the legal profession.

    Representing other lawyers is a free for all.

    I remember attending MedicoLegal dinners at the Queens Club (I think). Do such piss-ups still exist?

  12. Thanks BK and morning all.

    Reading Bruce Haigh’s column I’m wondering where our higher ed sector goes to now without the cash from international students. Does this mean university education will become even more expensive to cover the shortfall or does it become cheaper in an effort to woo Australian students?

  13. Hopelessly generalising, but in my experience lawyers are the most risk-averse of all the professions. You want big ideas and aspirations? Don’t ask a lawyer.

  14. Josh Frydenberg just gave the most unconvincing ‘no I didn’t’ when asked if he received a copy of The Book just now on Channel 9. You would think he would have that answer straight.

  15. ‘Cynical’ Trump is pushing Americans to ‘play Russian roulette’ with their lives as pandemic still rages: columnist

    In a brutally frank Sunday column for the New York Times, Thomas Friedman accused Donald Trump of playing with the health and safety of Americans by pushing the country to return to normalcy during the coronavirus pandemic in the hope that he can salvage his re-election.

    As Friedman explained, the president is encouraging a deadly game of “Russian roulette” to be played by U.S. citizens.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/cynical-trump-is-pushing-americans-to-play-russian-roulette-with-their-lives-as-pandemic-still-rages-columnist/

  16. Thanks BK. Your recommended Bruce Haigh post that we can’t go back to before because before wasn’t working echoes Fr Bob’s Gosford message.

  17. Trump blows a gasket at ‘dumb person’ Nancy Pelosi after she calls him a ‘weak leader’ on Fox News

    President Donald Trump on Sunday complained that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a “dumb” person after she called him a “weak leader” in an interview on Fox News.

    The remarks were made by Pelosi to Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace.

    “Name anybody, blame the governors, blame me, blame the World Health Organization,” the Speaker said of Trump. “Leaders take responsibility. So I said he’s a weak leader. He doesn’t take responsibility. He places blame on others.”

    The interview which took place on one of Trump’s beloved conservative platforms seemed to penetrate the president’s bubble.

    Nervous Nancy is an inherently “dumb” person. She wasted all of her time on the Impeachment Hoax. She will be overthrown, either by inside or out, just like her last time as “Speaker”. Wallace & @FoxNews are on a bad path, watch! https://t.co/nkEj5YeRjb

    — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 19, 2020

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/trump-blows-a-gasket-at-dumb-person-nancy-pelosi-after-she-calls-him-a-weak-leader-on-fox-news/

  18. Confessions @ #16 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 7:36 am

    Thanks BK and morning all.

    Reading Bruce Haigh’s column I’m wondering where our higher ed sector goes to now without the cash from international students. Does this mean university education will become even more expensive to cover the shortfall or does it become cheaper in an effort to woo Australian students?

    I had this conversation a couple of weeks ago with a friend of mine who has a daughter in Year 12. She wants to go to Uni but was fearful that with this year disrupted she might miss out. I told her that I thought for 2 reasons she had nothing to worry about.

    Firstly, the federal and state Education departments will want to keep an uninterrupted flow of children on the school-study-work-life treadmill and secondly, the universities will be crying out for students and they’ll have to get them from somewhere and they don’t have many options, at least for next year.

    Besides, if Morrison is willing to spend untold amounts of money hiding the jobless and to keep them voting for him, he’ll agree to spend just as much to keep those family’s kids getting an education.

  19. Josh Taylor
    @joshgnosis
    11m
    The Stuart Robert MyGov DDoS thing makes more sense after reading this in Turnbull’s book

  20. I think it’s pretty obvious government ministers would’ve received copies of Turnbull’s book and even shared it themselves. Which body investigates breaches of copyright?

  21. C@t:

    I can see in that scenario the govt underwriting the funding shortfall, but can’t see it impacting on current fees. Doesn’t that just incentivise universities carrying on with business as usual?

  22. ‘Shellbell says:
    Monday, April 20, 2020 at 7:27 am

    Swimming/wading through the blackest of black waters up to Twins Falls in Kakadu, our guide assured us that the freshwater crocodiles present would swim away.

    That, and the promised absence of saltwater crocodiles, I found strangely not reassuring.’

    Statistically you were wrong not to be reassured. On a personal basis, you might been unlucky. Very unlucky.

    People are very very occasionally bitten by freshies when they stand on them. It happens because freshies might just swim to the bottom of a lagoon and lie there in order to evade potential predators such as Shellbells. It is rare. It happens. It usually just means some very minor wounds in the leg. It never kills. A freshie bite is much less likely to happen in open water such as Twin Falls and more likely to happen in a lagoon infested with lily pads.

    Salties DO make their way up to Twin Falls from time to time. They are removed. Tourists are essentially taking a punt that park staff are on the ball with their croc spotting.

  23. Confessions

    Without the ‘rivers of gold’ the foreign students represent they cannot go on as before. The ‘fun’ part will be what happens to those that pretty much based their ‘business model’ around attracting full fee students.

  24. ‘Social distancing = Communism’: These are the stupidest protest signs from rallies to reopen

    While family members of the elderly and ill are working hard to protect them from coming near COVID-19, supporters of President Donald Trump and Fox News viewers are protesting around the country demanding everything reopen so they can go back to their local bars or golf with their friends.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/social-distancing-communism-these-are-the-stupidest-protest-signs-from-rallies-to-reopen/

  25. Australia has not run a large-scale national pandemic exercise since 2008: Kevin Rudd was serving his first year as prime minister and the first iPhone entered the market and changed the way people communicate.

    The experts say failure to continue pandemic practice exercises may have contributed to confusion in the early days of Australia’s response to COVID-19, including contradictory public messaging from national and local leaders and delays in launching communication tools.

    “One of the big examples, which would be at the forefront of many people’s minds, [is] the Ruby Princess,” said Sydney University health security expert Adam Kamradt-Scott, who was involved in a 2008 pandemic exercise.

    Former senior defence and foreign affairs official Allan Behm reviewed Exercise Sustain in 2008 for the Government.

    He recommended that similar national exercises should be conducted every two years.

    “If they’d actually had a couple of national exercises recently [they] would have been less, shall we say, hesitant,” said Mr Behm, who now runs the international and security affairs program at the Australia Institute.

    “That’s really what the exercises are for.”

    Why isn’t Minister for Keeping Us Safe Dutton being held to account for his failures? It was his dept that decided in 2019 that prevention was too expensive.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-20/coronavirus-australia-ran-its-last-pandemic-exercise-in-2008/12157916

  26. Confessions @ #26 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 7:54 am

    C@t:

    I can see in that scenario the govt underwriting the funding shortfall, but can’t see it impacting on current fees. Doesn’t that just incentivise universities carrying on with business as usual?

    Firstly, it can’t be business as usual because the source of most of the business has dried up. Secondly, there aren’t as many Australian, or even maybe, Australian plus Kiwi kids, who will fill all the gaps, so the Unis will take a haircut because the Morrison government won’t completely prop them up. That would mean, I think, a contraction and likely a lot of casual employees continuing to be without a job. Maybe they will look like they did back in the Gillard government days? Maybe the government will support the students to that extent and continue with HECS and HELP?

  27. Morning all. Thanks BK. The Turnbull inspired stories about the LNP are interesting. The fact that One of Morrison’s own senior staffers circulated the book unlawfully pretty much confirms the picture Turnbull portrayed. It seems every LNP MP marches with an assassin’s blade in their knapsack. And how does a PM’s staffer circulate something to everyone in cabinet and the PM not know?

  28. poroti:

    I guess I’m trying to see what that new business model looks like, if only for the short term. They can’t have empty courses. This year is a write off so looking to next year, I’m wondering what they do. Do they reduce fees to try and attract Australians? Do they simply cut a whole raft of courses?

    What a time to be alive! 😀

  29. One prominent journalist even said this was a “rookie mistake”. Seriously, a senior adviser to the PM is a rookie?

    Seriously, do any of Morrison’s “team” have many years of experience, and are any of them over 35?

  30. Socrates @ #33 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 8:05 am

    Morning all. Thanks BK. The Turnbull inspired stories about the LNP are interesting. The fact that One of Morrison’s own senior staffers circulated the book unlawfully pretty much confirms the picture Turnbull portrayed. It seems every LNP MP marches with an assassin’s blade in their knapsack. And how does a PM’s staffer circulate something to everyone in cabinet and the PM not know?

    He doesn’t. But Morrison, it seems, has had plenty of practice lying to the people about leaks to the media and others, it would seem.

  31. I think it’s pretty obvious government ministers would’ve received copies of Turnbull’s book and even shared it themselves. Which body investigates breaches of copyright?
    _______
    The AFP would have access to the government server to see who read ii and passed it on to whom. Could be a big snowball here, providing Turnbull with other revenge possibilities.

  32. That would mean, I think, a contraction and likely a lot of casual employees continuing to be without a job.

    Do universities even employ any permanent staff anymore?

  33. Confessions

    What a time to be alive! 🙂

    It is indeed. As the 21st Century dawned who could have guessed that the bright new millennium held in it’s future “Happiness Is. Finding a toilet roll for sale” ?

  34. So much for pro-life: Conservative demands Republican governors be held accountable for COVID spread

    Conservative Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin is demanding that all of the governors who refused to act on the coronavirus crisis be held accountable for killing members of their states.

    Writing Sunday, Rubin specifically namechecked Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who allowed young people to flood Florida beaches during spring break so he could ensure his state scored their seasonal profits. What has been discovered using cell phone data is that those young people then returned to areas of the country that have since seen huge outbreaks of coronavirus. It’s unknown if those youth could have been carriers of the virus to Florida or from the state. One thing is certain, however, some people got sick from those parties and some died.

    “What is most disturbing, however, is how little Republican leaders and their cult followers seem to care about protecting life,” Rubin closed. “Some in the self-proclaimed pro-life party are being anything but protective of innocent life.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/so-much-for-pro-life-conservative-demands-republican-governors-be-held-accountable-for-covid-spread/

  35. Confessions @ #39 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 8:09 am

    That would mean, I think, a contraction and likely a lot of casual employees continuing to be without a job.

    Do universities even employ any permanent staff anymore?

    Hmm, the Vice Chancellor? 😉

    But seriously, I have a young friend who was tutoring and doing part time lecturing at Sydney Uni in the Education faculty. It will be interesting to catch up with him if he comes back home to the coast and see how his job has been affected.

    I honestly believe that Morrison, who wants to keep the economy expanding, but was using full fee paying overseas students to do it as they settled here after studying here, will encourage Aussie kids to take their place, like I said, like Julia Gillard was doing with non full fee paying Aussie kids. Which, of course, the Coalition criticised up hill and down dale for the reckless effect on the Budget. 😆

  36. Alan Cleaver
    @thelonningsguy
    · Apr 18
    Living next to a pub, I’m used to late-night revellers shouting but what really annoyed me was the chap who would imitate an owl hoot around 2.30am every night. Now pubs are shut I realise the hooting still goes on and it’s not a drunk. It is actually an owl

    Lots of pics on Twitter of wildlife pottering about in cities – penguins, kangaroos, deer.

  37. If indeed this book was really leaked ahead of schedule shows how cosy this government thinks its relationship with the media is. This government has an unhealthy relationship with the media and with its mate in Washington who despite this government’s delusions wouldn’t care one iota about them and we can assume that because in thirty years Trump has never completed a real estate deal in Australia.

  38. Talking about depression – (not really – depression is a very serious matter)

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/hibernation/most-watched-shows-on-australian-tv-right-now-as-coronavirus-lockdown-continues/news-story/9e8947b3e0ebb6936ec8c95d60e4eb9e

    I’m going to have to lift my game. I don’t watch any of them although I had a look at “Shaun Micallef – Mad as Hell (ABC)” a couple of days ago
    rating “no stars”.

    Netflix and Foxtel are equally dreadful. 📚

  39. Socrates @ #41 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 8:10 am

    Cat

    Right. All the staffer has done is confirm Morrison’s modus operandi precisely as Turnbull has indicated.

    Yes, and as I speculated last night, a Malcolm on the revenge path and with time on his hands, won’t let Morrison get away with it. He won’t want to let Rupert Murdoch and News Corp get away with it either. He’ll read those columns in The Australian today by Chris Kenny and his ilk and it will only make him more determined to exact revenge. He knows how Murdoch, Morrison and News Corp roll and Spycatcher will turn Rupecatcher.

  40. Confessions, Cat

    On university funding, I have begged either side to reform the sector on this blog for ten years. Neither Labor nor Liberal has shown the slightest interest in doing it while in office.

    Wages and working conditions for most academic staff without tenure (which is the majority) are miserable. Yet uni central admins hand back to academic departments less than half the fee income they receive from foreign students or government supported local students. Where does it go? Bloated administrations, high exec salaries (You can employ three nobel prize winners for the cost of a VC) building sprees on fancier grounds and hair brained expansion schemes in many other countries. Teaching and research? Not so much.

    If universities were really reformed thousands of administrators would lose their jobs and VCs would no longer have salaries multiples of the education minister. In some over supplied courses that are fee engines for foreign students (e.g. MBAs) there would be academic job losses. Yet after that fees for local students would not need to rise and job losses in teaching and research could be minimal.

    Xanthippe is one who could lose her job even though she works in a research field in public health. It makes no sense but that is how desperate and irrational uni management has become.

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