Essential Research and Morgan: more coronavirus polling

Two new polls suggest support for the federal government’s handling of the coronavirus crisis is still on the rise.

I’ll be taking part in the Political Geekfest videocast through Zoom with Peter Lewis of Essential Research and Katharine Murphy of the Guardian Australia at 1pm AEST today, which you can register for here. The subject of discussion will be this:

• The Guardian reports on another Essential Research poll focusing mostly on coronavirus, which would appear to be a weekly thing at least for the time being. The latest poll finds 59% rating the government’s response as about right, up from 46% last week and 39% in the two previous weekly polls; 13% rating it an overreaction, continuing its downward trajectory from 33% to 18% to 17%; and 29% rating it an underreaction, which bounced around over the first three weeks from 28% to 43% to 37%. Respondents were also asked to rate their state governments’ reactions, though with sample sizes too small to be of that much use at the individual level: the combined responses for very good and quite good were at 56% for New South Wales, 76% for Victoria, 52% for Queensland, 79% for Western Australia and 72% for South Australia. The poll also records a surprisingly high level of general morale, producing an average 6.7 rating on a scale of one to ten, unchanged from May last year. The full report should be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.

• Also apparently a weekly thing is Roy Morgan’s coronavirus polling, which is being conducted online and not by SMS as I previously assumed – indeed, I believe this is the first online polling Morgan has ever published. Last week’s tranche showed a sharp rise in approval of the government’s handling of the matter from a week previous, with 21% strongly agreeing the government was handling the matter well (up twelve), 44% less strongly agreeing (up ten), 23% disagreeing (down ten) and 6% strongly disagreeing (down ten). Respondents had also become more optimistic since the previous week (59% saying the worst was yet to come, down 26 points, 33% saying the situation would remain the same, up 22 points, and 8% expecting things to improve, up four), and, contra Essential, slightly more inclined to consider the threat was being exaggerated (up five points to 20%, with disagreement down six to 75%). The poll was conducted last weekend from a sample of 987.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,397 comments on “Essential Research and Morgan: more coronavirus polling”

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  1. Re CC @12:37

    A similar survey here might find a strong correlation between the One Nation vote and disdain for social distancing and other pandemic measures.

  2. 0:30
    Dr. Dena Grayson
    @DrDenaGrayson
    ·
    22m
    Trump melted down because he finally got #busted for his TOTAL FAILURE to act in February to prepare for this deadly #coronavirus.

    Now, TENS OF THOUSANDS of Americans are DEAD, and MILLIONS lost their jobs.Face with symbols over mouth

    #TrumpMeltdown #TrumpLies #COVID19
    Quote Tweet

    Dr. Dena Grayson
    @DrDenaGrayson
    · 25m
    Double exclamation mark@PaulaReidCBS presses Trump on his propaganda: “Your video has a complete gap. What did your administration do in February with the time that your travel ban bought you?”
    Trump: “A lot. A lot.”
    Reid: “The video has a gap.”
    Trump: “You know you’re a fake”

  5. Cud Chewer @ #298 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 12:52 pm

    Today’s case figures are looking encouraging.
    Is the Easter lag in testing still in effect?

    Given that the entire world showed a sharp decline in daily confirmed cases over the past three days, I’ve voting for ‘Yes’. Taking all data reported until midnight on Tuesday, U.S. time with a grain of salt.

  8. mundo,
    (I believe you meant ‘unnoticed’)
    Yea, sorry I wrote that in a rush.
    I just can’t see any reason why labor needs to let this year slide by.
    It has a job to do. Hold the bastards to account and win government next election.
    The fact it isn’t doing that really really grinds my gears because right now the media landscape is quiet. If labor make a fuss about something it will get air time because it’s the only thing going. And Murdoch is actually losing power right now. Nobody is buy the Daily TP online and they certainly don’t traffic that site. the tabloid media works when tradies by the paper off food trucks.
    No ones working and just watching ABC or netflix. Labor can cut through right now.

  9. Labor. You need to learn to time your pressers for live coverage.

    Cut off by ABC because we reached the hour mark.

    Edit: on news 24. Assume same for radio

  10. Fauci should take this advice. The way Fauci backpedalled today was disheartening.

    Rep. Eric Swalwell
    @RepSwalwell
    Trump won’t fire Fauci. But it will be worse than that. He’ll Mueller him. Remember how
    @realDonaldTrump
    whined for over a year about red lines (finances), and length of the investigation, and threatened to fire Mueller? And never did? He knew that by dangling the (thread 1 of 3)
    9:06 AM · Apr 14, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
    1.5K
    Retweets
    5.8K
    Likes
    Rep. Eric Swalwell
    @RepSwalwell
    ·
    3h
    Replying to
    @RepSwalwell
    firing out there, he could get in Mueller’s head. So Mueller stayed but he never went for Trump’s finances and never pressed for an interview (Trump whined about that, too). He’s doing the same with Fauci. Trump wants Fauci to stop telling the truth and bend to (Thread 2 of 3)
    Rep. Eric Swalwell
    @RepSwalwell
    ·
    3h
    his will. That’s better than firing him. Which would lead to a massive public outcry. The antidote to this? Dr. Fauci has to keep telling the truth. Stick to the science. And not cower or become a sycophant.

  12. Hard to tell from those figures Blobbit. Doesn’t really give a state by state, day by day breakdown on testing figures. The daily figures for Australia as a whole suggests testing is still down since Saturday.

    Mind you, it may well be that there’s just less to test. Clearly we now have spare capacity in testing.

  13. Steve777 @12:54

    Which is why I generically referred to “stupidity hotspots”

    The same people deny climate change, vote for Pauline and so on..

  14. P1

    Nah. Shorten tried that. The LNP turned it into they are coming for your utes. 🙂

    Seriously the lack of foresight by the LNP is appalling

  15. a r

    Fair enough. I’ll wait another day or two to see if it doesn’t bounce back.
    It is a bit concerning though in that you’d expect the people doing tracking/tracing/testing to never take a break.

  16. Riddle me this, south.

    How do Labor get the sort of media coverage you think they should just be able to whistle up at a whim, when the media is essentially wall to wall Premiers and Chief Ministers and Prime Ministerial briefings interspersed with expert analysis and commentary?

    Oh, and good to see you feeling your oats, south. mundo is good at encouraging moaners and miscreants to keep expressing their anti Labor sentiments, absent the facts. 🙂

  17. Ryan Struyk‏Verified account @ryanstruyk

    Reported US coronavirus cases via @CNN:

    6 weeks ago: 102 cases
    5 weeks ago: 678 cases
    4 weeks ago: 4,459 cases
    3 weeks ago: 42,663 cases
    2 weeks ago: 160,698 cases
    1 week ago: 368,196 cases
    Right now: 581,918 cases

    Reported US coronavirus deaths via @CNN:

    4 weeks ago: 86 deaths
    3 weeks ago: 541 deaths
    2 weeks ago: 3,003 deaths
    1 week ago: 10,986 deaths
    Right now: 23,608 deaths

  19. “Hard to tell from those figures Blobbit. Doesn’t really give a state by state, day by day breakdown on testing figures. The daily figures for Australia as a whole suggests testing is still down since Saturday.”

    Yes it does. From the front page, click on a state that you’re interested in. That takes you to more detailed numbers. Under that state, click on the heading “tests” and it shows you all the data. WA below, but all the other states are there as well

  21. I wonder if this has predictive power, so let me ask, where in Australia are there hotspots of stupidity?

    Federal Parliament?

  23. Sprocket says that mundo does this weird 3rd Party reference to mundo. Perhaps mundo never learnt grammar at school yet.

  25. Blobbit those NSW testing numbers bounce around a lot, making Easter look relatively unexceptional – except for the low figure on Easter Sunday

  26. Here you go Cud

    “WA could expand testing to include people with no symptoms
    …
    WA Health Minister Roger Cook has revealed the government could expand coronavirus testing criteria to include people showing no symptoms of the disease, as WA moves in to the next phase in the fight against the deadly virus.
    …
    Speaking on 6PR’s Mornings with Gareth Parker, Mr Cook said WA had enough reagent and pathology capabilities to expand testing criteria even further”

    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/wa-coronavirus-live-testing-set-to-expand-with-help-from-the-private-sector-20200413-p54jhh.html

  28. Joshy presser 13:30, what exciting news could he have for us ? Treasury modelling ‘confirming’ we woulda been ‘back in black” if it wasn’t for the pesky virus ? 🙂 Caved and will do the right thing by all those who he left on the wrong side of his previous “you have to draw the line somewhere” ?

  30. “Cud Chewersays:
    Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 1:09 pm
    Blobbit those NSW testing numbers bounce around a lot, making Easter look relatively unexceptional – except for the low figure on Easter Sunday”

    Pretty much. You can have a look at all the other states as well. Either from the front page, or just change the NSW in the URL

  31. Also the ACT and NT tests have dropped below 100 per day. Not surprising I guess, but all the more reason to pursue random testing of the general population.

  32. Cud Chewer @ #316 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 1:04 pm

    you’d expect the people doing tracking/tracing/testing to never take a break.

    Perhaps, but that’s only one side of it. If someone’s GP is closed for the break and they’ve got mild symptoms on Friday they might decide to wait until Tuesday to go in and ultimately be referred for testing. Or if they’re traveling/visiting family (whether or not they’re supposed to) they may wait until they get home to have any symptoms assessed.

    Even with the testing capacity still there, the utilization might drop off over a holiday weekend. Confirmation (or not) should come tomorrow.

  33. “WA Health Minister Roger Cook has revealed the government could expand coronavirus testing criteria to include people showing no symptoms of the disease, as WA moves in to the next phase in the fight against the deadly virus.”

    Good news. Lets see this happen also in QLD. I still have a friend on the Sunshine Coast who has symptoms but just barely falls outside the testing guidelines.

  34. a r

    I still want to know what proportion of tests are going to GPs to test people who rock up and want to be tested and what proportion are being done on traced contacts?

    If the latter group isn’t dominant, that would be a worry.

  35. So, here’s a question. If testing is opened up to people with no symptoms or suspected contacts – who’s going to go get tested?

  37. I just can’t see any reason why labor needs to let this year slide by.
    It has a job to do. Hold the bastards to account and win government next election.

    You’re just itching to be written off as a Menzies House concern troll with that type of crazy talk, aren’t you?

  39. “So, here’s a question. If testing is opened up to people with no symptoms or suspected contacts – who’s going to go get tested?”

    I suspect that if its a free for all, lots of people are going to rock up with mild cold/flu symptoms. Its not a bad thing really because in the end its data that can be used to survey the general population.

  40. It’s only a very small minority of over-zealous VicPol officers who are creating problems of confidence in the force.
    Those few over-zealous officers handing out fines should immediately be re-deployed to desk duties or be managed out of the force.

  41. guytaur @ #310 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 1:02 pm

    P1

    Nah. Shorten tried that. The LNP turned it into they are coming for your utes. 🙂

    Seriously the lack of foresight by the LNP is appalling

    And the media to their eternal shame breathlessly reported every second of Scrote’s doorstop and killed whatever debate there might have been stone dead.

  44. “I suspect that if its a free for all, lots of people are going to rock up with mild cold/flu symptoms. Its not a bad thing really because in the end its data that can be used to survey the general population.”

    I was more wondering about people on here. Who would go an get tested?

  47. Blobbit

    First up would be the hypochondriacs just ahead of the worried well followed by those desperate for an excuse to go out.

  48. The New York Times
    @nytimes
    ·
    5m
    More than 100 million children could be at risk for measles because countries are suspending national immunization programs in order to reduce the risk of coronavirus infection, international public health leaders warned

  49. itsthevibe @ #333 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 1:19 pm

    I just can’t see any reason why labor needs to let this year slide by.
    It has a job to do. Hold the bastards to account and win government next election.

    You’re just itching to be written off as a Menzies House concern troll with that type of crazy talk, aren’t you?

    or worse…a sock puppet!

  50. “Cud Chewersays:
    Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 1:19 pm
    In QLD, cases might be small numbers but they aren’t showing enough of a downwards trend.”

    Have to say, the QLD press releases on daily cases are a bit disappointing. The WA ones go into more detail as to the sources of new daily cases.

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