I’ll be taking part in the Political Geekfest videocast through Zoom with Peter Lewis of Essential Research and Katharine Murphy of the Guardian Australia at 1pm AEST today, which you can register for here. The subject of discussion will be this:
• The Guardian reports on another Essential Research poll focusing mostly on coronavirus, which would appear to be a weekly thing at least for the time being. The latest poll finds 59% rating the government’s response as about right, up from 46% last week and 39% in the two previous weekly polls; 13% rating it an overreaction, continuing its downward trajectory from 33% to 18% to 17%; and 29% rating it an underreaction, which bounced around over the first three weeks from 28% to 43% to 37%. Respondents were also asked to rate their state governments’ reactions, though with sample sizes too small to be of that much use at the individual level: the combined responses for very good and quite good were at 56% for New South Wales, 76% for Victoria, 52% for Queensland, 79% for Western Australia and 72% for South Australia. The poll also records a surprisingly high level of general morale, producing an average 6.7 rating on a scale of one to ten, unchanged from May last year. The full report should be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.
• Also apparently a weekly thing is Roy Morgan’s coronavirus polling, which is being conducted online and not by SMS as I previously assumed – indeed, I believe this is the first online polling Morgan has ever published. Last week’s tranche showed a sharp rise in approval of the government’s handling of the matter from a week previous, with 21% strongly agreeing the government was handling the matter well (up twelve), 44% less strongly agreeing (up ten), 23% disagreeing (down ten) and 6% strongly disagreeing (down ten). Respondents had also become more optimistic since the previous week (59% saying the worst was yet to come, down 26 points, 33% saying the situation would remain the same, up 22 points, and 8% expecting things to improve, up four), and, contra Essential, slightly more inclined to consider the threat was being exaggerated (up five points to 20%, with disagreement down six to 75%). The poll was conducted last weekend from a sample of 987.
“Cud Chewersays:
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 9:31 pm
Blobbit
If I could give you a number, I would.
I like numbers.”
Let’s play this game then. We wait one month, still not 0 cases. So we wait another month. Still not zero cases every day. So we wait another month….
How many times do we do that. As far as I can see, your position is that we do that indefinitely and anyone who disagrees just wants to kill people and is an IPA shill.
“Kids are susceptible. Kids can spread the virus. Kids represent a large fraction of the population.”
Based on what evidence? Without that, it’s just a feeling.
I’ve heard this
“From the perspective of you and your child’s health, there is no evidence that children can spread the infection widely — I’m not aware of any large outbreaks linked to transmission in a school setting.”
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-20/coronavirus-covid-should-kids-go-to-school/12071336?pfmredir=sm
And this
“Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic.”
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext
“That an assumption based off of the behaviour of other viruses. It’s clear that this virus doesn’t affect children in the same way; it’s therefore possible that children also have a different level of transmission.”
They’re not immune Blobbit. They generally get less sick. But they do infect others with the virus. See my previous post
“They’re not immune Blobbit. They generally get less sick. But they do infect others with the virus. See my previous post”
I did, and it was hand waving. Feels.
See the lancet article.
Blobbit @ #652 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 9:39 pm
Jeez. Took all of 5 seconds to find this …
https://www.livescience.com/can-kids-get-coronavirus.html
Shellbell
“ The answer is South Australia”
Wait and see what happens in the RAH ICU. If it spreads from the one staff member there, we are royally fucked.
Frankly I wouldn’t blame senior (>60) docs and nurses for not turning up.
P1
Kids certainly get it but they don’t seem to be very contagious.
Blobbit
“Let’s play this game then. We wait one month, still not 0 cases. So we wait another month. Still not zero cases every day. So we wait another month….
How many times do we do that. As far as I can see, your position is that we do that indefinitely”
I must say that normally you’re quite reasonable but this is a little over the top. I’ve answered your questions. The fact is that if you have a decent mathematical model then you can know at any given time, based on the data, what the probability of there being a hidden infection is.
When you do get to zero cases, the maths will tell you precisely what you need to know.
Now if you’re not at zero cases then you need to start asking questions about declaring elimination on a state by state basis. Again again even at non zero cases, the maths can tell you what the likely number of hidden cases are, and give you a good idea of whether further time will yield progress or not.
From what I can see of the present data, we are trending towards zero cases in the major states in 2 to 3 weeks. I’m sure you’ll let me know if I’m wrong about this.
Dio
Kids don’t have to be very contagious to tip the overall balance.
“Jeez. Took all of 5 seconds to find this …
https://www.livescience.com/can-kids-get-coronavirus.html”
Indeed, dated 6th March.
My reference is 6th April
Also from your reference
“What remains unclear is how readily children, with their relatively mild symptoms, spread the disease to other people — especially to vulnerable older individuals. ”
Which is exactly my point. More recent evidence seems to suggest that they don’t spread it.
“Cud Chewersays:
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 9:50 pm
Dio
Kids don’t have to be very contagious to tip the overall balance.”
So, why aren’t you advocating locking everyone away for 6 months?
Diogenes @ #657 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 9:49 pm
That is not known yet, because not enough testing has been done. And if they spread to other kids – which seems likely – then that is difficult to detect, because kids are largely asymptomatic.
But there is no reason to believe kids are any less contagious than adults, and it would explain some of the clusters of infection which have occurred in homes and schools.
Blobbit @ #640 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 9:31 pm
“The largest cluster of COVID-19 cases being tracked is at an Auckland girls’ school, Marist College, in the suburb of Mount Albert. The Catholic school now has 72 confirmed cases, having escalated from 47 over recent days. The entire school of 750 students plus staff and parents has been classed as “close contacts.” The New Zealand Herald described the college’s experience as a “nightmare.”
On April 2, several primary school children from the nearby Marist School were reported to have tested positive for COVID-19, likely from contact with family members at the college. “
Hi, back after Masterchef. Priorities. 😉
I think, after a quick scan of the discussion, that it doesn’t matter, in the general sense, what size venue you open first, though I agree smaller ones are easier to monitor by the authorities to see how it goes, because whatever place you decide to open must conduct itself in a way that respects social distancing and the rules governing non-transmission of the virus. And who’s going to put their hand up for that fraught experience?
Or, on the other hand, you may get so many businesses putting up their hand to give it a go and get back to making a living, how do you decide which one gets the tick of approval, and who makes the decisions?
If it’s the local Chamber of Commerce, then there’s bound to be rancourous debate as to who gets the nod.
Just a couple of reality checks from my perspective, having run a small business and knowing what these people are like.
Dio, the other day you quoted your reliable source about the outbreak in the staff in The Alfred.
From what I recall, you mentioned they were not contaminated in the corona ward. Do you know if it had anything to do with the cancer treatments?
Blobbit regard school closures
You’re grasping at straws
The first article you cited is an opinion piece from March 20
The second article doesn’t add much to your argument because SARS was actually a lot easier to control.
How about an article from the Lancet?
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30236-X/fulltext
“So, why aren’t you advocating locking everyone away for 6 months?”
Because I think we can eliminate the virus much sooner.
Blobbit @ #660 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 9:50 pm
They spread it. They just don’t themselves get sick from it. At least, not very often.
“On April 2, several primary school children from the nearby Marist School were reported to have tested positive for COVID-19, likely from contact with family members at the college. “
So that transmission want in the school.
On the Marist outbreak, I understand, but could well be wrong, that it was amongst it students. My view is that the initial opening should be for primary school kids only.
“They spread it.”
P1, that’s pure assertion.
“Cud Chewersays:
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 9:56 pm
“So, why aren’t you advocating locking everyone away for 6 months?”
Because I think we can eliminate the virus much sooner.”
So? That way you’d be sure and all that matters is eliminating the virus.
Here’s a way we could reduce transmission.
Anyone on an aged pension can’t leave the house for anything. Not until there are zero transmissions.
“So? That way you’d be sure and all that matters is eliminating the virus.”
I’m not going to be very happy living in a country where we fucked up our chance to eliminate the virus and as a consequence, the virus rebounds, kills thousands of people and I have to spend yet more time living off noodles and protecting my 80+ year old mother.
Sorry Blobbit, but you’re not being particularly fair.
Hero of the dish = drink
“Marist College’s school calendar shows a fiafia night was held on Saturday March 14, and an extended whānau meeting on March 18.”
First case was around March 20. Sounds like the problem may have been large school events with parents in attendance.
Blobbit @ #672 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:00 pm
?? Oldies don’t apear to be significantly greater spreaders than other age groups. They are just more susceptible to die from it. Those in their 20’s have the highest number of confirmed cases.
“Anyone on an aged pension can’t leave the house for anything. Not until there are zero transmissions.”
What about people my age Blobbit? I stand roughly one chance in 100 of dying a horrible death if I catch it. You’re happy with that? Or should I be locked up indefinitely too?
How bout we do the sensible thing and aim to eliminate the virus first?
Shellbell @ #673 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:04 pm
Obviously you aren’t watching it then. Hasn’t been said once this season. There are new judges.
Blobbit @ #670 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 9:58 pm
Perhaps – but not by me. It is asserted by those who study the disease in children.
“Sorry Blobbit, but you’re not being particularly fair.”
I don’t get the preoccupation with blaming kids, but the reluctance to limit the movement of older people severely.
Professor Macintyre has been a bit on the pessimistic side but anyway – next week she lectures
https://kirby.unsw.edu.au/event/professor-raina-macintyre-covid-19-pandemic-update-transmission-herd-immunity-and-exit
Cuddy, you’re getting a bit dogmatic on this virus and how precisely to deal with it.
Can you remind us of the qualifications and expertise in epidemiology, virology and public health administration you possess?
One of the contestants said she did not want the ingredient to be the hero of the dish twice – close enough
“Perhaps – but not by me. It is asserted by those who study the disease in children.”
That wasn’t what you’re reference actually said P1..
“What remains unclear is how readily children, with their relatively mild symptoms, spread the disease to other people — especially to vulnerable older individuals. “
I would like to know if the mass testing is voluntary or involuntary
BB I suggest you do your own research, like I have.
My formal qualifications are in Science/Maths/Engineering. I may not have a degree in epidemiology but I do get scientific method.
I would not know the first thing about when to open up again or how. But from a health perspective, one thing appears to be certain; later is better than earlier.
Then again I am working in a remote WA community as one of the store check out chicks, and I can say my handwashing is almost compulsive, as well as using sanitiser. I am not in a real lockdown.
We are extremely worried about anyone bring it in. We are in Community lockdown. It is essential workers only after 2 weeks isolation in Broome. We can fish, walk around or go to the beach.
Blobbit @ #684 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:10 pm
Try this one … from a doctor …
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/doctor-note-coronavirus-children-200322092356989.html
There are many others. Google is your friend.
To be fair, Bushfire, you’ve already driven off the only guy on this site who had any particular knowledge of the subject!
“What about people my age Blobbit? I stand roughly one chance in 100 of dying a horrible death if I catch it. You’re happy with that? Or should I be locked up indefinitely too?
How bout we do the sensible thing and aim to eliminate the virus first?”
Hold on a tick. You are aware that I was arguing an extreme case to try to demonstrate that EVERY decision we make is based on a trade off.
You want to stop kits going back to school on the basis that it might have a small effect on the R value, taking a precautionary approach.
My point is that we can reduce it even further by a simple measure, if all we care about is eliminating the virus. I’m not saying lock up every over age+1 for ever, just until the virus goes away.
We know those people are more susceptible and probably more infectious. Everyone else can just continue with the current lockdown.
I am just going to watch Richard Wydmark and Sydney Poitier in the Viking classic, The Long Ships, which has popped up on Foxtel Classics.
Blobbit
When researchers use the word “unclear” you should step back, and consider what that doesn’t mean. What it doesn’t mean is that children cannot spread the virus. The research that I have seen says that children do spread the virus but we just don’t know precisely how much.
Again, you only have to tip the balance a little. Just a few more infections and you’re over 1.0 . And then you’re screwed. If we had absolute proof that children cannot (but only rarely) infect other people then fine. But given that they are human, can be infected, can incubate and do cough and sneeze I wouldn’t take that chance.
Again, one thing you’re missing in all of this is the very real possibility of fast, cheap and accurate (enough for the purpose) testing. If you really are impatient you should be banging Brendan Murphy’s door down and asking him when is he going to ramp up purchase of test kits.
P1 – show me an article about kids based on actual evidence.
The doctor in that article is extrapolating from other diseases. The evidence I’ve been able to find, as per that Lancet article, is that SARS viruses don’t seem to behave that way, to overly simplify.
Shellbell @ #682 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:10 pm
What a shallow reading of the show. I frankly didn’t even notice it as far as something to get hung up about.
Each to their own, I guess.
I’m going to keep watching it. It beats spending all night watching Blobbit and Cud go round the Covid maypole. As informative, relevant or interesting as it may be.
Blobbit
Show us conclusive research that says that children are not spreaders. Put up or shut up, please.
See, I asked nicely.
“Again, you only have to tip the balance a little. Just a few more infections and you’re over 1.0 . ”
So why aren’t we locking up everyone over the age of 65 more severly until this goes away? That’ll clearly help tip the balance.
C@t
I got bored when they started ripping off Iron Chef 🙂
Australia is in the very enviable position of being able to afford to watch other countries relax their restrictions early … and see exactly what happens as a result.
If we do not take advantage of our (almost) unique advantage – just because some neoliberal arseholes want to salvage their bonuses at the expense of other people’s lives – then we are just too stupid for words, and we deserve whatever happens to us 🙁
Prof Macintyre has published a short myth busters piece. Part of it us about schools and kids. It’s dated March 28.
Note that she does a reverse Brendan.
She says “We have no basis upon which to say that there is low transmission in children…”
Brendan prefers to say there is no evidence that kids transmit it (or WTTE)
She’s a scientist, he’s a political apologist.
https://iser.med.unsw.edu.au/blog/busting-myths-about-covid-19-herd-immunity-children-and-lives-vs-jobs
“So why aren’t we locking up everyone over the age of 65 more severly until this goes away? That’ll clearly help tip the balance.”
We already are.