I’ll be taking part in the Political Geekfest videocast through Zoom with Peter Lewis of Essential Research and Katharine Murphy of the Guardian Australia at 1pm AEST today, which you can register for here. The subject of discussion will be this:
• The Guardian reports on another Essential Research poll focusing mostly on coronavirus, which would appear to be a weekly thing at least for the time being. The latest poll finds 59% rating the government’s response as about right, up from 46% last week and 39% in the two previous weekly polls; 13% rating it an overreaction, continuing its downward trajectory from 33% to 18% to 17%; and 29% rating it an underreaction, which bounced around over the first three weeks from 28% to 43% to 37%. Respondents were also asked to rate their state governments’ reactions, though with sample sizes too small to be of that much use at the individual level: the combined responses for very good and quite good were at 56% for New South Wales, 76% for Victoria, 52% for Queensland, 79% for Western Australia and 72% for South Australia. The poll also records a surprisingly high level of general morale, producing an average 6.7 rating on a scale of one to ten, unchanged from May last year. The full report should be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.
• Also apparently a weekly thing is Roy Morgan’s coronavirus polling, which is being conducted online and not by SMS as I previously assumed – indeed, I believe this is the first online polling Morgan has ever published. Last week’s tranche showed a sharp rise in approval of the government’s handling of the matter from a week previous, with 21% strongly agreeing the government was handling the matter well (up twelve), 44% less strongly agreeing (up ten), 23% disagreeing (down ten) and 6% strongly disagreeing (down ten). Respondents had also become more optimistic since the previous week (59% saying the worst was yet to come, down 26 points, 33% saying the situation would remain the same, up 22 points, and 8% expecting things to improve, up four), and, contra Essential, slightly more inclined to consider the threat was being exaggerated (up five points to 20%, with disagreement down six to 75%). The poll was conducted last weekend from a sample of 987.
Fulvio Sammut @ #688 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:14 pm
I doubt rhwombat has been driven off by BB’s antics, FS. He’s probably become one of the recently retired medicos that have gone back to work in order to help out during the crisis.
“She’s a scientist, he’s a political apologist.”
Maude you nailed it 🙂
Blobbit @ #693 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:18 pm
Tell you what – you send your kids to school as a test case, and report the results.
My kids will stay home, as a control.
Deal?
meher baba says:
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 4:40 pm
…
I think there are many political leaders, and an even greater number of ordinary people, who are far from convinced that 3 months of totally trashing our economy for a 50 per cent chance of eliminating the virus represents a good deal.
…
The alternative, a hundred thousand dead is so attractive…. meher baba your a little bit sick.
“Cud Chewersays:
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 10:20 pm
Blobbit
Show us conclusive research that says that children are not spreaders. Put up or shut up, please.
See, I asked nicely.”
Clearly I can’t, the world doesn’t work that way.
I’ll do you a trade. Kids stay home as long as everyone over the age of 65 stays locked in their house. I know that’ll help reduce the spread as well.
That’s just as much applying the precautionary principle as stopping kids from returning to school in a controlled way.
Yes I was worrying a bit about rhwombat.
“Tell you what – you send your kids to school as a test case, and report the results.
My kids will stay home, as a control.
Deal?”
Not while I’m being asked by the government not to.
meher baba says:
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 4:40 pm
…
I think there are many political leaders, and an even greater number of ordinary people, who are far from convinced that 3 months of totally trashing our economy for a 50 per cent chance of eliminating the virus represents a good deal.
…
The alternative, a hundred thousand dead is so attractive…. meher baba your a little bit sick.
“Clearly I can’t, the world doesn’t work that way.”
But you’re perfectly happy to risk fucking up an entire nation based on your gut feeling?
Look, I spend an awful lot of time reading research papers lately and you wanna know my gut feeling? Kids do spread the virus. We don’t know how much. Its not worth the risk.
I also am flabbergasted at the fact that you keep ignoring testing as a way out of this.
“Cud Chewersays:
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 10:21 pm
“So why aren’t we locking up everyone over the age of 65 more severly until this goes away? That’ll clearly help tip the balance.”
We already are.”
No we’re not. There’s no unique rules that I’m aware of.
Blobbit @ #696 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:20 pm
You seem to be confusing the infection rate and the consequences of infection.
Blobbit @ #706 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:23 pm
Not so. The government has said schools will open, and kids can go.
I will report my results here. I look forward to you doing the same.
frednk
As was pointed out earlier, meher misrepresented that number in a rather disingenuous way.
The modelling showed that there is a 50 percent chance of eliminating the virus in 3 months. Not that there is a 50 percent chance in total. Its a distribution and its caused by the fact that every run of the simulation will be different thanks to the random events involved.
Meher should have the decency to acknowledge his mistake.
Do you have kids Blobbit?
If so I recommend you lobby strongly for rapid testing.
Cud Chewer @ #696 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:20 pm
As an officionado of Iron Chef I appreciated that someone was prepared to keep the kitchen flame burning. And anyway, if you actually watched it maybe more than once or twice, then you would know that Iron Chef is completely different to Masterchef.
Iron Chef pitted a challenger from a top flight restaurant against their choice from the line-up of Iron Chefs and the Master of Ceremonies chose the core ingredient which they both had to use to prepare as many dishes as they could in the time allotted. Then a panel of judges judged their work and declared a winner.
Which is nothing like the format of Masterchef.
Therefore I judge your comment as simply a flippant verbal chip that you have chucked to me as if I were a blog seagull before you get back to your more important conversation with Blobbit.
Not nice, Cud.
“I also am flabbergasted at the fact that you keep ignoring testing as a way out of this.”
I’ve kind of got tired in adding to the bottom of every post “and of course we should do more testing”
As for “fucking up our response” this started with a discussion on what restrictions might be able to be reduced in the future initially of cases remain low.
Maude – the evidence is that SARS type virus are different, that I’ve seen. Extrapolation from flu doesn’t appear valid.
“No we’re not. There’s no unique rules that I’m aware of.”
I can assure you Blobbit that there are very few old people in this country who are taking any unnecessary risks. A lot of people in this country do actually get it.
“this started with a discussion on what restrictions might be able to be reduced in the future”
And my point is that the more mass testing you do, the sooner and faster you can ease some restrictions without taking unnecessary risk. This is particularly so with schools.
If you were fair dinkum about wanting restrictions ease, then you’d be strongly advocating for mass testing.
Speaking of eating all sorts of awful exotic shit that is highly likely to propagate some sort of animal to human disease jump. Yay … Ironchief!!
Barf
“Not so. The government has said schools will open, and kids can go.”
WA there asking you not to send your kids. Teaching is going online for term 2. Not much point sending my kids to a school where there’s no one there.
Also, my position is that the return would need suitable restrictions in place in terms of reducing mixing between classes.
Its a gourmet chip, C@t 🙂
Cud Chewer @ #716 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:31 pm
Unfortunately you are wrong on that point. Many old people are out and about in defiance of their own best interests. It’s like voting LNP.
Brendan was reported today as being very irate that schools were technically open before Easter, but parents were refusing to send their kids to school.
I mean, how DARE they?
Don’t they know that he has told them that everything is perfectly safe?
(Oh, and that The Gov’t wants them to send their kids along as that will help the economy by helping them to become more productive, or some such thing)
He also didn’t tell us if all the kids of LNP MPs were still attending school, which was no doubt an oversight, as I’m sure they all were.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #718 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:32 pm
I recall very few ingredients which fell into that catagory.
Just test the poor bloody kids Blobbit. That way you don’t need the rows of barbed wire that would actually be needed to prevent them from socialising.
Cud Chewer says:
Tuesday, April 14, 2020 at 10:28 pm
frednk
As was pointed out earlier, meher misrepresented that number in a rather disingenuous way.
The modelling showed that there is a 50 percent chance of eliminating the virus in 3 months. Not that there is a 50 percent chance in total. Its a distribution and its caused by the fact that every run of the simulation will be different thanks to the random events involved.
Meher should have the decency to acknowledge his mistake.
If we go down the route which stops the medical system from being overwhelmed it is months and about 100 thousand. If we let it rip its shorter and about twice as many deaths.
It we go for elimination is may be shorter if may not be, but its a hell a lot better than digging graves.
There really is no debating point.
It’s Time
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edible_bird%27s_nest
Yes, that featured on Iron Chef.
“I can assure you Blobbit that there are very few old people in this country who are taking any unnecessary risks. A lot of people in this country do actually get it.”
Based on what evidence?
“If you were fair dinkum about…”
And this is why I’m losing my rag. If anyone doesn’t agree with you then they’re either dishonest or wanting people to die.
Maude – the evidence is that SARS type virus are different, that I’ve seen. Extrapolation from flu doesn’t appear valid.
Yes, the Corona Virii are different to the Influenza Virii.
Maude Lynne @ #722 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:35 pm
He should put the blame on the State Premiers who implemented those policies, if he dares.
BTW, Singapore, one of the poster stars of sars2, closed its schools last week as part of its circuit breaker to get infection rate back under control.
frednk
Elimination is almost certainly going to restore the economy fully (sans international travel) faster than any version of suppression plus gradual lifting of restrictions.
That’s a key fact that some (especially a lot of journos) haven’t grasped.
Cud Chewer @ #719 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:33 pm
As long as it’s Rosemary, Lemon and Garlic flavoured I’ll eat it. 🙂
Blobbit @ #719 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:32 pm
Not so. In WA you are merely “encouraged” to keep your kids at home, but there is no requirement that you do so, and the schools will be open. I am sure there will be enough people who will decide to send their kids to school to make the trial both valid and worthwhile.
I look forward to seeing the results. Shall we compare infection rates at the end of term 2?
Speaking as an old person (>65), I can tell you I think very carefully about taking any trips outside my (short) street . But I have to eat, and visit the Dr, so must still do so, with mask on.
And when I return home we wash all the packages, and put my clothes in the wash.
Back for more, tomorrow. See ya!
In Victorian government schools only the children of Health workers or vulnerable kids can attend, everyone else is expected to study remotely.
C@t
Funny that.. I have those Rosemary, Lemon and Garlic ones in the freezer. I’ll have to eat some for you 🙂
C@tmomma @ #714 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:29 pm
That was the best format. Until they changed it to have one of the dishes delivered early and added in random “culinary curveball” challenges. Too gimmicky after that.
And my final contribution before I’m verballed as wanting everyone over the age of 50 rounded up and shot (though that would help reduce transmission)
1. Absolutely test children as widely as possible
2. I think restricting schools was probably an over reaction but also not unreasonable
3. I’m suggesting that if the current low rate of infection continues them out would be reasonable to look at reopening schools, with restrictions, sometime in the future.
What I’m not suggesting is that all schools should instantly reopen, regardless of the ongoing infection rate.
Cud Chewer @ #726 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:38 pm
One swallow doesn’t make a summer.
Maude
“Brendan was reported today as being very irate that schools were technically open before Easter, but parents were refusing to send their kids to school.
I mean, how DARE they?”
Yes, Brendan from the association of company directors.
I wonder what sets his priorities.. hmm…
Blobbit @10:42
Ok fine. I’ll put the nuke back in the silo…
Steve davis
So, when asked about people who “do not want to work”, and how you know these people exist:
I know of such people. We have a few generations of them in our small country town.
So, which small country town?
How do you know these people do not want to work?
Without any evidence or references, your post means nothing.
Any fool can say shit on the internet. It does not make it true.
And, during the time of COVID-19, a lot of shit said without evidence on the internet is WRONG, and leads to people dying needlessly.
Can you explain to us all here on PB why the shit you say on the internet is better than the shit on the internet that said COVID-19 was just a mild ‘flu”?
Also, thanks in advance for your non-response. Under no circumstances do I expect you to reply to my post.
If you did reply, you might need to think about why people in your small town do not have jobs.
Also, are you a resident of Upper Bumcrack Alabama – that may explain it.
The CMO has proved conclusively he lacks professionalism and is an idiot.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/nurses-cop-abuse-demand-apology-for-illegal-dinner-party-rumour-20200414-p54jrk.html
On par with Morrisons fire fighters are having fin:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/12/firies-and-fury-exhausted-volunteers-decry-pms-claim-they-want-to-be-there
Thanks C@t. Nice clear chart comparing the two viral infections.
I hope I haven’t given the wrong impression in what I have said, and implied they are the same.
I know they are not.
Maude Lynne @ #733 Tuesday, April 14th, 2020 – 10:41 pm
And there others in that age group who aren’t taking it seriously. Antiestablishment attitudes. Callous indifference. Exceptionalism. And probably vote One Nation.
Its Time
“He should put the blame on the State Premiers who implemented those policies, if he dares.”
The day that the Premiers took control is the first day I had gotten a decent sleep in a while.
I’m curious is there any animal the Chinese don’t eat?
I don’t like cooking shows but Iron Chef was a good program.
C@tmomma:
Are you ever going back to pharmacy, C@t? Your skills are being put to waste posting here as often as you do. Just think of all of the pent-up anger you could release by jabbing others coming in for their flu shots.
Not sure this is a good idea. Last time I checked, he still hadn’t found what he was looking for!