As reported by The Guardian, the fortnightly Essential Research poll (a sequence complicated by a bonus coronavirus poll last week) includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect the findings of Newspoll in very slightly lesser degree. Scott Morrison is up on approval from 41% to 59% (compared with 41% to 61% in Newspoll) and down on disapproval from 49% to 31% (compared with 53% to 35%), while Anthony Albanese is respectively up from 41% to 44% (compared with 40% to 45%) and down from 33% to 29% (compared with 40% to 36%).
For the fifth successive poll, Essential asked respondents about their level of concern about the threat of coronavirus to Australia, to which the combined very concerned and quite concerned responses climbed from 68% to 63% to 82% to 88%, and has now remained steady at 88%. No information is provided on preferred prime minister — we will have to wait for the full report later today to see, among other things, if the question was asked.
UPDATE: Full report here. Scott Morrison now holds a 46-27 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 40-35 last time (note that the BludgerTrack trends are now updated with the latest Essential and Newspoll numbers). The government’s response is now rated good by 58%, up from 45% a week ago, and poor by 21%, down from 31%. The poll also finds 29% expecting a lengthy recession due to coronavirus; 51% expecting that “the economy will be impacted for 6-12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter” (which for my tastes is not sufficiently distinct in its wording from the first option); and 11% expecting the economy will “rebound within 2-3 months”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1069.
a r @ #2643 Friday, April 10th, 2020 – 5:03 pm
But they are not. Their travel was (pretty much by definition) non-essential, and they should not have undertaken it.
In NSW …
… and I hope they live up to this promise, to teach these entitled idiots a lesson.
However, that will not stop the virus spreading. We will all pay a price for that 🙁
We don’t eliminate viruses – H1N1 caused the Spanish Flu virus and:
The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: A New Flu Virus Emerges
From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated
However, (H1N1)pdm09 virus continues to circulate as a seasonal flu virus, and cause illness, hospitalization, and deaths worldwide every year.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
Bucephalus
Do you think the young’uns genuinely believe that they are not susceptible, or are they just refusing to ‘take orders’? Or perhaps they are blissfully unaware of anything that doesn’t directly concern them.
DM
Move to a two conference model: VFL and AFL.
AFL = WA, SA, QLD & NSW. Move all those teams to one State (not Tasmania).
Lizzie
They generally believe it doesn’t effect the young and healthy.
And the WA hospital numbers stable at 34 for the last 3 days after dropping from 54.
Which is a good sign.
Cud
I’m hopeful that the larger states will get to the same point soon. They are hoping Easter, school holidays and Anzac Day don’t change your curve
I can’t watch MKR any more. I’m so disappointed in Pete Evans.
Edit: And the show’s become too repetitive anyway.
The whole point of the stay at home requests is to stop people transporting the virus (unwittingly or not) to country areas which barely have enough health care at the best of times.
They then visit shops, petrol stations, fast food joints, etc. Holiday makers are typically loud, which means they spray droplets metres away.
If they have the virus they will probably infect the poor bloody shop assistants who will take it home and infect the family.
Fantastic outcome.
(Them) arguing they should be allowed to use the shops when they get there is selfish and plain idiotic.
They should have stayed at home in the first place.
Buce
That would be good too.
I’m hoping restricted travel to other safe states would start in the not too distant future as this means we would have progressed in managing the pandemic
lizzie,
They are being “discrete” by not pumping up the stereo so I think it is a case of feeling like it’s all a bit OTT and they’ll be right, mate. I can understand why they would have that attitude.
I’m pretty sure at least one young lady is a nurse so I doubt that they are unaware.
I’ve lived in this block/street for almost 20 years and walk up and down it once day minimum often twice walking the dog and I know all the cars that are normally here. The house was refurbed about three years ago (owner built out the back) and it’s been rented since then. They’ve had some pumping parties on Public Holidays in the past.
I’m not dobbing on them mainly because they are being discrete. But it is a little but of a piss off because it’s my boy’s 13th birthday today and we aren’t having a party and his grand parents came and parked in the driveway and left presents on the doorstep and we waved and chatted. I got him a new footy which is why we went to the park.
bucephalus
Virtue isn’t always its own reward, is it. I hope your boy had a good birthday. 🙂
One thing the virus shows though; it wouldn’t take a lot of effort to get a police state going here.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-10/coronavirus-infections-on-the-cusp-of-slowing-paul-kelly/12141050
Here’s our deputy CMO saying we are “on the cusp of elimination” and at the same time, not saying we should aim to eliminate while we have the chance, and also not talking about the role of far greater testing.
Oakeshott Country @ #2613 Friday, April 10th, 2020 – 4:37 pm
No, don’t know. How many cardiac theatres in the State I wonder, seems like an interesting question …
I would imagine (and that’s as strong as I can be) that the OR machines are suitable. They’re certainly mobile. The ECMO issue is dealing with the longevity of it and the physiology and pharmacology of that.
Blobbit @ #2660 Friday, April 10th, 2020 – 5:27 pm
Sure, a few machine gunnings of recalcitrant civilians at Bondi would just about do the trick!
Bucephalus @ #2647 Friday, April 10th, 2020 – 5:10 pm
Well then, you know what to do.
NSW, Qld and WA are starting to look stubbornly linear in growth. I just can’t see this extended wekend doing anything but spiking the numbers in a week or two. Can’t see any relaxation of restrictions happening at the end of the month.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1435
Bottom line: Wear a face mask even if its makeshift.
Because the bodies are not piling up as in New York/Italy/Spain etc I believe that the tendency of many is to fall back on the old.
When told (as I attempted to educate my postie yesterday) its three times the killer as is Influenza which annually kills some 3000 of our friends, family and neighbours.
“I dunno” he said. Some of my family are like that.
Good night all. 📺 💤
lizzie @ #2656 Friday, April 10th, 2020 – 5:19 pm
And always with an eye on ripping people off massively! Not only is he being irresponsible by touting a doolally machine that will ‘cure’ COVID-19 but he is asking $13000 a pop for the useless thing!
KayJay
Hang on a minute. How do I post one of my own camera shots on PB? Is it possible?
Its Time
When it gets “stubbornly linear” you know you’re into a phase where you’re chasing the tail of the virus. Putting out the fire but not attacking the fire front.
lizzie
Get it into a file on your PC. Use a picture posting site like imgur.com
When you post on imgur.com there will be a button for “copy link”
Paste that link into a browser window and open it.
Then click to expand the image.
Then right click and do something like “copy image address” (depends on browser)
and then put the address between an img and /img tag (surrounded by right angle brackets).
lizzie @ #2672 Friday, April 10th, 2020 – 5:36 pm
I’m hanging, I’m hanging. It’s very possible and when first done is then easy.
You need to get the camera shot onto your computer. Can you do that?
Good excuse to not keep on with my cleaning and washing, thank you. What’s the pain medication and what for please. Answer optional.
Which self respecting person ever watched MKR? 🙂
”
Cud Chewersays:
Friday, April 10, 2020 at 5:32 pm
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1435
Bottom line: Wear a face mask even if its makeshift.”
The assumption here is “encourage people to wear face masks on the grounds that we have little to lose and potentially something to gain from this measure?”
What if that’s not correct. What if wearing badly fitting have masks is harmful? Maybe it’ll encourage people to go out more and get closer to people. Maybe it’ll mean people will agitate for bars to open earlier than they would have.
Load up, load up, load up with rubber bullets
I love to hear those Bondi beachgoers squeal
Its a shame these slugs aint real
“Sure, a few machine gunnings of recalcitrant civilians at Bondi would just about do the trick!”
I reckon a $20 Bunnings gift card world be enough to get 15% of the population to snitch on their neighbours.
5% would do it just for the warm fuzzy feeling.
Cud Chewer @ #2640 Friday, April 10th, 2020 – 5:02 pm
I was raising the issue that the initial viral load varies, and wondering how that affects the course of disease. I have no idea why you are saying what you are saying to me, but as long as you feel better. I entered medical school in 1965 and retired 2 years ago, so I already had some concept that disease is a continuous process. But thanks anyway.
KayJay
You may have misheard. He may have been trying to tell you about Ida No.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llO7DHGEmX4
Itza
No probs 🙂
The recent linearity in WA is all from travelers returning from overseas or from the crew of the Artania cruise ship. The number of new cases will be proportional to returnees (400 flew in the other day)
Community transmission numbers are the ones to make decisions on
One possibility is that there are not enough testing kits available to ramp up testing to the level required to eliminate the virus from Australia, and not enough productive capacity around the world to make enough kits to enable Australia to do that amount of testing, and he doesn’t want to say that because it would demoralize people. So he is focusing on what can be done: getting to and staying on the cusp of elimination through a combination of spatial distancing and targeted testing, isolation, contact tracing etc. Perhaps the next stage will be that governments lift one restriction and see what happens, and if the number of daily cases doesn’t go up much they lift another restriction, and see what happens. If daily cases go up by a lot the governments reinstate restrictions.
KayJay
Yes, I can get pics on to computer.
Pain? Just yer average back shoulder & leg ache when I stand or walk. The joys of an arthritic skeleton, I guess. The doc has given me codeine (reluctantly) and I managed to change the bedsheets this arvo. Victory!
Blobbit @ #2675 Friday, April 10th, 2020 – 5:41 pm
Says more about you than the general public, comrade.
Cud Chewer @ #2674 Friday, April 10th, 2020 – 5:39 pm
Never! I’m a Masterchef person. I’m forever in its debt for getting my children interested in good food and cooking, so I ritually watch it every year. Btw, did you know it starts again on Monday? 🙂
Cud Chewer
Thanks for instructions. 🙂
Thanks lizzie,
It’s not the Laser Tag party with his mates but he’s an old head on young shoulders and is being so good about it.
lizzie,
Cud’s explanation is good too.
“Says more about you than the general public, comrade.”
It probably does. I guess I’m not posting pictures on Facebook of the rule breakers, while squealing with delight that I got one.
Buce,
Did you think about getting his mates to all log on to their internet connections at the same time for a game of Fortnite or something like that?
poroti
Friday, April 10th, 2020 – 5:41 pm
Comment #1924
Hand to head. “I feel such a fool” – all these years I have been wrong, so wrong.
Strike me pink, young Harry ❗
Some very important people were born in Gosford Hospital.
😉
Cormann on Sky
You gotta draw that line so that there are always a few that suffer.
NIcholas
“One possibility is that there are not enough testing kits available to ramp up testing to the level required to eliminate the virus from Australia, and not enough productive capacity around the world to make enough kits to enable Australia to do that amount of testing”
Yeah that’s a possibility. Its also possible we have more testing kits to go around as the number of cases drops. Its also possible the government of Australia just hasn’t bothered to do all that is necessary to ensure we have more testing kits. Its also possible we have lots of testing kits in the pipeline but we’re not being informed of it.
Leaving that aside, other countries are heading towards mass testing. Notably the UK. Why aren’t we? In fact why aren’t we even talking about it? (at least at official level).
” Perhaps the next stage will be that governments lift one restriction and see what happens, and if the number of daily cases doesn’t go up much they lift another restriction, and see what happens. If daily cases go up by a lot the governments reinstate restrictions.”
You know, one of the things I’m formally trained in is control systems. You get to learn that some systems have long delays built in. That you adjust a control input and you see no response and then you go okay, lets adjust it more. Pretty soon you get scalded in the shower.
It would be criminal to reduce restrictions without having first serious attempted elimination. Doing that means we don’t have to worry about staying at the edge of control. We can go back to a normal life.
Its hubris to think we can accept a small rate of infections and that we have a magic knob we can adjust and stay in control of the rate of infection. The only mechanism that can achieve this that is actually in the hands of the government is mass testing. If you ease restrictions alone, then (with a certain amount of delay as people adjust their behaviour – it may be months) you will see a resurgence of the virus.
Again, one of the most dangerous ideas floating around right now is that we can ease restrictions and do so in a “magic knob” fashion. We just don’t have that degree of control and the main reason is we just don’t know who is infected. Only mass testing and/or elimination solves that problem.
‘Self-respecting’ is waaaaay over-rated.
DM
WA has almost no community transmission cases.
I understand the politics of it but we are destroying jobs, businesses and families for what appears to be a very small problem here in WA. Targeted quarantine on a risk based approach may in hindsight be a better policy but it is what it is and both the WA ALP and Federal LNP Governments have done a good job.
lizzie @ #1928 Friday, April 10th, 2020 – 5:46 pm
Thanks for that. I could post some images of how to go about the camera to computer to Poll Bludger process if you like. Cudchewe amplified.
I have finished the sheets and only need to put the cover on the doona (lovely pink colour).
Buce, do the right thing and dob them in.