As reported by The Guardian, the fortnightly Essential Research poll (a sequence complicated by a bonus coronavirus poll last week) includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect the findings of Newspoll in very slightly lesser degree. Scott Morrison is up on approval from 41% to 59% (compared with 41% to 61% in Newspoll) and down on disapproval from 49% to 31% (compared with 53% to 35%), while Anthony Albanese is respectively up from 41% to 44% (compared with 40% to 45%) and down from 33% to 29% (compared with 40% to 36%).
For the fifth successive poll, Essential asked respondents about their level of concern about the threat of coronavirus to Australia, to which the combined very concerned and quite concerned responses climbed from 68% to 63% to 82% to 88%, and has now remained steady at 88%. No information is provided on preferred prime minister — we will have to wait for the full report later today to see, among other things, if the question was asked.
UPDATE: Full report here. Scott Morrison now holds a 46-27 lead as preferred prime minister, out from 40-35 last time (note that the BludgerTrack trends are now updated with the latest Essential and Newspoll numbers). The government’s response is now rated good by 58%, up from 45% a week ago, and poor by 21%, down from 31%. The poll also finds 29% expecting a lengthy recession due to coronavirus; 51% expecting that “the economy will be impacted for 6-12 months or longer and will stagnate or show slow growth thereafter” (which for my tastes is not sufficiently distinct in its wording from the first option); and 11% expecting the economy will “rebound within 2-3 months”. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1069.
Please note there is a dedicated thread for those wishing to discuss the verdict in the George Pell case, which is due at 1oam.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6712796/why-arderns-coronavirus-response-has-been-a-masterclass-in-leadership/
Would be embarrassing if New Zealand starts to look like it might achieve elimination and we are still having a barren debate about when to end the partial lockdown here, without giving proper thought to the possibility of elimination of the virus eh?
The article goes on to praise Ardern’s communication skills, but part of leadership is having the wit and wisdom to work with experts who have their shit together and being able to pick the correct course of action.
Unlike Scomo and his sycophantic and dull witted CMO, who are clueless about the role of testing in being the one and only viable exit strategy. They still think in terms of it being inevitable that the virus will work its way through the community at some stage. Despicable attitude.
Of course being a born to rule doesn’t really grant you wit or wisdom…
We have a whole lot of organisations and companies where to become a ‘leader’ you have to have no leadership capability. A lot of these organisations are effectively reverse meritocracies where the very worst rise to the top.
I know of an organisation that has been doing ‘restructuring’ and redundancies for something like 6 years, and the whole time if there is a choice between two people, one of whom is capable, does a good job and is a decent human being and the other is an upward managing arse kisser, who is basically incompetent except at selling themselves to just as limited people up the ladder, the capable person is shown the door every time.
We have somehow created a world where the very worst people thrive.
Yep, so much of our present political reality is about preserving the privilege of basically useless people.
Like Phil Coorey in the AFR yesterday.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-prepares-nation-to-live-with-the-virus-20200405-p54ha0
I still can’t get over how idiotic and mathematically illiterate that is. I mean I’ve seen plenty of bullshit arguments and dodgy figures in right wing media, but yesterday I was absolutely stunned when I read that.
The basic premise was that we could end the (partial) lockdown in August because by then enough people would have caught the virus and therefore there would be herd immunity. And that we could do this without overwhelming the health care system.
Did Coorey even do the simplest bit of mental arithmetic? Does he have a calculator? Herd immunity involves 60 to 80 percent of the population having had the virus. Even at 30 percent, that’s 41,000 infections per day. Words fail me as to just how pathetic Liberal-PM ass kissers like Coorey really are.
Just repeating something from the last thread.
Australia has 5,797 cases total and 2,432 recovered. That’s 42 percent of all cases have recovered, this soon. That’s quite impressive and maybe cause for hope.
CC
The AFR has been nearly unreadable this week with commentator after commentator carrying on and while i understand the fears of those that are on the wrong end of job losses or business closures but the AFR isn’t helping with its sulky attitude.
Boris Johnson is now in ICU.
Boris Johnson in intensive care, “in case he needs ventilation to aid his recovery”.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1247242940096884738
According to this, the death rate for those with the “critical symptoms” that warrant ICU/ventilation is 50%, though I suspect special caution is being exercised in Johnson’s case. But it’s 15% even at the “severe” symptoms/hospitalisation level.
https://twitter.com/MohamadKansoMD/status/1244551989993902080/photo/1
Cud Chewer
The next few days will tell but there are signs NZ approach may be working.
…………………………………………………………………………………………
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12322917
I hope so poroti though I can’t discern much from the stats.
From Twitterland..
“UK: PM, Health Secretary & CMO *all* catch it, with PM in hospital as patient.
Ireland: PM, Health Secretary & CMO all clear, with PM in hospital **as a doctor**.
UK is fucking it up. OECD expects Ireland to have best outcome of its members.”
Cud Chewer
One odd thing I’ve noticed, compared to other countries, is the very low icu to case ratio. The “peak” icu occupancy has been 3 and there are only 13 in total in hospital.
Who would replace Borris?
https://www.twitch.tv/roylabstats
Pandemic live feed has moved to Twitch
For “Bondians” some sad news.
.
Pussy Galore, dies aged 94
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/apr/06/honor-blackman-james-bond-pussy-galore-avengers-dies-aged-94
From a parallel universe to your screen……………….
.
‘Trump is leading’: the midwest voters lapping up president’s daily briefings
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/trump-polls-coronavirus-support-midwest-voters-why-popular
I hope Boris Johnson recovers. A Tory twat he may be, but I have never sensed that he is inherently evil, unlike Trump, Morrison or Murdoch.
I wish him no harm, and hope to hear of Boris’ recovery soon.
Plus Boris would only be replaced by another Tory twat…
I hope he recovers for one reason. After getting “up close and personal” with the virus he will know exactly it means when people get the disease and what he will be responsible for if he plays silly buggers.
CC
I’ve no idea as to the preparedness re testing by the medical frontliners however there’s no doubt that the lockdown provisions as they have been are a huge success.
Until such time as our bevy of politicians and their rat’s tale of media wannabes show a true appreciation of both the inherent dangers of the Caronavirus, its ability to springboard and the goodwill of the public, there should be no lessening of the lockdown provisions as currently in place and perhaps the addition of even more stringent provisions.
Politicians and their media supporters have been given a free hand to indulge the privileged classes for almost the second half of the 20th century, without hesitation, such is the comparative wealth and prosperity of the lucky country.
The lucky country can continue to indulge its inhabitants but a number of decisions relating to the Caronavirus have sailed rather too close to the edge.
It’s hardly a good omen when dodgy leaders and their cap catchers start their braggarty and self-indulgence so early in the timeframe of the game.
Lockdown, stocktake and stockpile our ability to test. Defer the presentation cermonies indefinitely. The LNP are well schooled in dark art of deferring both propriety and proprietary when it suits.
poroti @ #19 Tuesday, April 7th, 2020 – 4:15 am
There’s nothing like a vision of one’s own mortality to focus one’s attention.
PTMD
A sign of his not being “inherently evil” was after his initial Tory twat “All the way with herd immunity” he, as soon as he saw the modelling, changed tack “toot sweet” .
For the Bludger(s) who scoffed at the need/value of providing ‘recovered” numbers.
………………………………………………………………………………………
An Australian adviser to the World Health Organisation has called on the federal government to publicise the number of recovered COVID-19 patients, saying that tally is “just as important” as the daily infection toll.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/you-need-both-stories-who-adviser-calls-for-national-coronavirus-recovery-tally-20200402-p54ght.html
Goll I’d go so far as to use the expression “some success”.
I’ll declare it a qualified success when we get down to zero new cases for a week.
I’ll save the label “huge success” for when we can declare the country provisionally free of the virus.
I’ll comment more on that in due course.
poroit I thought we had a count of recovered covid19 patients?
Well at least that’s what I’m seeing on the stats sites.
I am surprise Boris didn’t take up an option to be in a trial for a vaccine (that’s if they do that in England/UK)
From that article..
“Professor Allen Cheng, a physician at The Alfred hospital, said 10 days from the point of displaying symptoms was a conservative buffer for most patients to no longer be infectious. He argued a recovery tally was not the best use of resources as the pandemic moves towards its peak in May or June.”
That’s starting to look a bit dated aint it..
Besides there’s no excuse not to have enough tests.
Cud Chewer
It stopped but has been restarted. The article was from 4 days ago.
Peter Collignon (ANU) pointed towards a pertinent article reconsidering the Spanish flu the other day, apparently after some of the stories about various drugs for covid19 doing the rounds. He seems to have more nuance, experience and perspective than the judgements some make around here. I can see he might upset some bludgers given their rabid worshipping of Dan Andrews and his comments and questioning about Vic going overboard. Unless we are actually now a fascist dictatorship it seems an entirely valid point of public discussion about the level of control over people’s lives and biological plausibility.
He makes his points for himself in the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/05/we-need-to-live-restricted-lives-for-at-least-six-months-police-enforced-lockdowns-are-unnecessary
re the paper he pointed to, maybe the extreme fatalities in the Spanish flu were actually due to the excessive use of aspirin, which had just had it’s patent rights forcibly taken from the German company Bayer after the US joined WW1. This may particularly have been the case in US military camps after the US Surgeon General, US Navy and JAMA recommended it just before a major spike in deaths in Oct 2018. Seems there’s a mythology that the Spanish flu was the making of aspirin in popular public perception, at least in the English speaking world. Though these levels of use were subsequently found to elicit exactly many of the symptoms/pathology that were represented in those “killed” by the flu.
Salicylates and Pandemic Influenza Mortality, 1918–1919 Pharmacology, Pathology, and Historic Evidence
Karen M. Starko
Clinical Infectious Diseases, Volume 49, Issue 9, 15 November 2009, Pages 1405–1410,
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/49/9/1405/301441
Abstract
The high case-fatality rate—especially among young adults—during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic is incompletely understood. Although late deaths showed bacterial pneumonia, early deaths exhibited extremely “wet,” sometimes hemorrhagic lungs. The hypothesis presented herein is that aspirin contributed to the incidence and severity of viral pathology, bacterial infection, and death, because physicians of the day were unaware that the regimens (8.0–31.2 g per day) produce levels associated with hyperventilation and pulmonary edema in 33% and 3% of recipients, respectively. Recently, pulmonary edema was found at autopsy in 46% of 26 salicylate-intoxicated adults. Experimentally, salicylates increase lung fluid and protein levels and impair mucociliary clearance. In 1918, the US Surgeon General, the US Navy, and the Journal of the American Medical Association recommended use of aspirin just before the October death spike. If these recommendations were followed, and if pulmonary edema occurred in 3% of persons, a significant proportion of the deaths may be attributable to aspirin.
Peter Collignon has also more recently pointed to the premature ending of a chloroquine trial in Sweden due to extreme side-effects, which were known and not unexpected.
The reporting of recovered cases had stopped, but has restarted?
Great Barrier Reef’s third mass bleaching in five years is the most widespread ever
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/07/great-barrier-reefs-third-mass-bleaching-in-five-years-the-most-widespread-ever
Government’s chief marine scientist says he fears people will lose hope for the future of the reef, but it is a clear signal for action
Aerial surveys of more than 1,000 individual reefs show severe levels of bleaching occurred in 2020 in all three sections of the reef – northern, central and southern – the first time this has happened since mass bleaching was first seen in 1998.
The government’s top Great Barrier Reef scientist says a third mass bleaching event in five years is a clear signal the marine wonder is “calling for urgent help” on climate change.
“One of the many disturbing features of Australian preparation for the pandemic was failure to stockpile adequate numbers of test kits over Jan/Feb 2020. How many kits were actually sourced at that time? Why was this not done? Why kept secret?” -Bill Bowtell
Quoll
Did you listen the the ABC radio AM program from last Saturday that I linked to in the last thread.
It included Peter Collignon and quite frank he did not impress me at all.
Also he was on ABC 7:30 last night frothing at the mouth about how we’ve “gone too far” whilst at the same time talking about how we’d “squashed the curve”.
He may well be an expert, but he is stuck in a rut and doesn’t really get the fact that eradication is a real possibility.
William Bowe @ #8 Tuesday, April 7th, 2020 – 5:29 am
I wonder if he’s ‘still running the country’ from his ICU bed? 🙄
I say this because the last thing I read last night was a parade of Tory Ministers proclaiming to the media that, even though BoJo had been taken away to hospital, ‘he would still be running the country from his hospital bed’. I mean, how ridiculous is that? The reason he is in hospital is because he didn’t rest at home, which is essential for recovery if you don’t want to end up there. So to keep pushing the ‘Keep Calm and Carry On’ message is just plain reckless.
Although I guess, being the avatars of the ‘Work till you drop, sink or swim’ brigade, it was to be expected. You have to lead by example. 😐
Good on him Quasar
But more importantly, are we NOW attempting to amass ludicrous quantities of tests? Is our government and bureaucracy pulling out all stops to acquire million of these things?
Cud Chewer
The Health Dept. had said nyet to releasing data at some stage and now the numbers are being reported. I guess they must have passed Scrott’s required level of “good news” for them to be released.
Starting to look as if the rough models developed here is all we are going to see.
Victoria is building ICU capacity. Enough to be handling about 40,000 case. It starting to look as if federally they are deliberately letting infection in. We are told they are not releasing the modelling because it will scare the shit out of us.
It seems to me the Federal government is not going after elimination.
poroti @ #16 Tuesday, April 7th, 2020 – 5:56 am
Yeah, leading them into the valley of death.
Cud Chewer @ #27 Tuesday, April 7th, 2020 – 6:40 am
And the justification for identifying recovery rates is pretty thin too. I’m sure medical staff are being thoroughly tested for recovery after being infected. Extrapolate from that data without using up hundreds of thousands of tests just to fill in some blanks on a spreadsheet.
frednk.
Which would be weird as “scary numbers” would be a damned good way to ensure people accepted whatever nasty medicine the government was trying to get us to take.
poroti I’ve never delved into where the adders-up of all the statistics get their primary data from, but obviously they do somehow..
https://www.twitch.tv/roylabstats
Australia now on 5,797 cases and 2,432 recoveries. And it seems to me that the number of recoveries has shot up quite a bit in the last couple of days. But I wasn’t paying enough attention to be sure.
CC
I heard it and frankly all I can think is that you’re making a ridiculous claim, when both guests largely appeared to be mostly in furious agreement with each other
Redundant comment.
C@t
Long article which amongst other things points out how Trump is literally killing his base.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9
I find myself unable to comment further…
Quoll
No, they differed substantially on several important issues and it was Peter laying it on thick about how he agreed, when in fact he wasn’t agreeing.
Have a closer listen. They start to diverge where the Grattan guy talks about eradication as a real possibility and Peter flat out ignores/denies that possibility.
I wouldn’t take calls to lift restrictions from anyone connected to a university seriously because from day one they have put their own economic health ahead of public health and the word expert is used too often.
poroti @ #23 Tuesday, April 7th, 2020 – 4:31 am
I’ve noticed that WA provides the recovered number in its daily coronavirus updates. I think other states should follow that lead.
poroti @ #41 Tuesday, April 7th, 2020 – 6:57 am
ABC news reported an hour ago that the modelling would be released today.
Yep, Guardian reported same yesterday.