The West Australian had a Painted Dog Research poll of 500 respondents on attitudes to the coronavirus, with field work dates undisclosed – or at least its website did, as I can’t see any mention of it in the hard copy. What the online report ($) tells us is that 71% believed the federal government should “enforce a full lockdown”; that 25% expected three months of social distancing, and 23% six months; that 18% were extremely worried about losing their job by September, with another 42% slightly worried; and that 68% were most concerned about the health impact, compared with 28% for the economic impact.
Other than that, I have the following to relate about Queensland’s elections on the weekend, which I’ll put here as the dedicated post on the subject doesn’t seem to be doing much business:
• As the dust settles on the troubled counting process, it’s clear the Liberal National Party has enjoyed something of a triumph in the election for Brisbane City Council, extending their 16-year grip on the lord mayoralty and quite probably repeating their feat from 2016 of winning 19 out 26 wards on the council. Incumbent Adrian Schrinner leads Labor’s Pat Condren in the lord mayoral race by a margin of 5.5%, although the latter gained a 4.0% swing off Graham Quirk’s landslide win in 2016. The ABC projection is awarding 17 ward seats to the LNP, to which they look very likely to add Enoggera, while maintaining a slender lead over the Greens in Paddington. The Greens’ combined council ward vote is up 3.4% on 2016 to 17.9%, and they retained their sole existing seat of The Gabba with swings of 12.2% on the primary vote and 8.5% on two-party preferred.
• However, it was a less good performance by the LNP in the two state by-elections, where all the detail is laid out at my results pages for Bundamba and Currumbin. The party finished a distant third behind One Nation in Bundamba, which remains a safe seat for Labor, and have only narrowly held on in Currumbin, where Labor has achieved a rare feat for a governing party in picking up a swing of nearly 2% at a by-election. Party leader Deb Frecklington would nonetheless be relieved by the result, since a defeat in Currumbin, which a pre-election poll suggested was in prospect, would surely have imperilled her leadership, despite her being able to point to the highly unusual circumstances in which the election was held.
• Speaking of which, I offer the following numbers on the ways the enrolled voters of Bundamba and Currumbin did and didn’t vote, with the qualification that there is an indeterminate number of postals still to be counted — perhaps rather a few of them, given I understood that there had been a surge in applications (although it seems a number of applicants never received their ballots).
Finally, a few thoughts on the situation in the United States, elaborating on a subject covered in yesterday’s post here by Adrian Beaumont – you are encouraged to comment on that thread if you have something specific to offer on matters American, and in particular on Donald Trump’s confounding opinion poll bounce over the past few weeks. I sought to put the latter event in context in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, the key feature of which is the following comparison of his approval rating trend, as measured by FiveThirtyEight, with comparable trend measures of my own for Angela Merkel, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison.
The upshot is that leaders the world over are enjoying a “rally around the flag” approval bounce, and that Donald Trump’s looks meagre indeed compared with his colleagues across the Atlantic. I feel pretty sure that the lack of a clear bounce for Scott Morrison is down to the fact that there have been no new numbers since Essential Research’s poll of over a fortnight ago, with the surges for Merkel, Johnson and Macron being concentrated since that time.
It’s also interesting to observe that Trump’s improvement has not been consistently observed. The chart below records his trends so far from this year from the five most prolific pollsters. For some reason, Rasmussen, the pollster that is usually most favourable to him — and which is accordingly the most frequent subject of his vainglorious tweets on the odd occasion when it reaches 50% — has in fact found his approval rating going in the direction he deserves. There is also no sign of change from the Ipsos series. However, the improving trend from the other three is more in line with the many other pollsters included in the FiveThirtyEight series, hence its overall picture of his best ratings since his post-election honeymoon.
Artificial pilots and self-flying planes!
Is ”cockwomble” a banned word? In fact, is it a word?
Not sure if this helps, but I’ll chuck this on the fire see what happens:
These are projections based on 5-day averages at the indicated dates.
yabba
I don’t have a sensible comment. Hospitals have always been dangerous places, now made far worse, unfortunately.
ar
New jets are pretty much able to take off and land on their own. So time to go the full autopilot hog ? I’m willing to let you try it first though 🙂
steve777
It seems there is…………….
Scored “bonus points” for thinking of BoJo before looking it up
—————————————–
There Is A Crisis In British Swearing
Just when you thought cockwomble, pisstrumpet and shitgibbon had died, they’re launching a
https://www.esquire.com/uk/life/a22747750/cockwomble-there-is-a-crisis-in-british-swearing/
Bushfire Bill says:
Friday, April 3, 2020 at 11:56 am
Perhaps if I put it this way. If the population of infected people is to remain constant then the newly infected has to match the retired cases ( either through death or get well).
My “magic number” for this is 3.4% new cases per day, or less, which is a doubling over a maximum of 21 days, balancing an admittedly guesstimated recovery rate of 21 days after diagnosis.
In my view that sounds about right.
No amount of saying Morrison looks good makes it so.
Voters are not totally dumb.
The Cruise Ship Fiasco makes Morrison look as incompetent as Trump.
The guy who holidayed in Hawaii was going to the Footy.
Funny thing facts. Immune to the millions spent on spin.
MB
The cruise ships crossed from international waters into Australian waters so that makes it a federal government responsibility. The states control the ports and rivers while the feds control the oceans.
[‘She submitted that in the event of a successful appeal, Pell’s case should be referred back to the Court of Appeal to be heard again.’]
One of the options open to the High Court is to accept Judd’s submission. I’m leaning towards this result on the basis that if the Court intends to quash Pell’s convictions, he should’ve been released. Most legal watchers predict that he’ll walk on Tuesday. I’m not so sure, saying again that appellate courts highly value the jury system, as did the Founding Fathers – see section 80 of the Constitution. Intermediate appellate courts sometimes err and unless there’s been a substantial miscarriage of justice, it is quite often the case that the High Court will remit the matter(s) back for rehearing pursuant to its directions. Pell’s counsel (Walker) argued on appeal that the majority of the Court of Appeal effectively reversed the onus of proof, forcing the prisoner to prove his innocence. If accepted, this would little doubt constitute a substantial miscarriage of justice. That said, I’ve come to the conclusion that I haven’t got a clue what I’m banging on about and should await Tuesday’s decision at 10 am.
Just saw Jason Clare on the telly sounding every bit like a proper opposition.
He even sounded a little bit passionate and serious.
And he made sense.
I hope it’s contagious.
Labor passion goes viral.
guytaur @ #209 Friday, April 3rd, 2020 – 12:07 pm
‘Voters are not totally dumb.’
BWAAAAHA HAHAAAAA HAA HAAAHAHAHAHAAHAH!
Shellbell,
A quick check of the “instructions to authors” for MJA show that the maximum number of references allowed is 25, which the author used 24. Using the “thinness of their references” to attack the scholarship of the authors is, to put it politely, very silly.
guytaur @ #209 Friday, April 3rd, 2020 – 12:07 pm
‘The guy who holidayed in Hawaii was going to the Footy.’
Funny thing memory, voters don’t have one.
guytaur @ #209 Friday, April 3rd, 2020 – 12:07 pm
‘The Cruise Ship Fiasco makes Morrison look as incompetent as Trump.’
Only if the opposition makes it stick.
Heard anyone on the media bagging Comrade Morrison?
Mundo
Nah the voters will remember.
For starters the Franking Credits crowd are going to remember their lives AND their money have been threatened by the LNP.
”The Australian Payments Network today announced they will be increasing the limit you can tap to pay without entering your pin from $100 to $200.”
Now that’s a good move.
FWIW
Of course Morrison is going to be popular for awhile. The situation demanded a big response and that’s exactly what has occurred.
Free money has always been popular.
But, going forward it will be the detail, the wails of those missing out and the inconsistencies that will chip away at his credibility. When the reckoning arrives (you know the pay back) people are going to be less generous with their praise.
I am guessing Franking Credits are gone, GST to 15% without exemptions, a resources rent tax and personal tax increases will be the new Corona Virus. Just, don’t mention the debt and deficit!
Blobbit @ #219 Friday, April 3rd, 2020 – 12:18 pm
That’s just simple linear growth in each case.
guytaur says:
Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:15 pm
Mundo
Nah the voters will remember.
For starters the Franking Credits crowd are going to remember their lives AND their money have been threatened by the LNP.
_______________________________________
We can make all the predictions we like but we are in uncharted territory. Even the ‘Spanish’ flu pandemic does not provide good pointers because the economic impact of this pandemic will be massively greater (given that no government is prepared to countenance a similar level of deaths).
I personally have no idea of what the next year will bring to the way we are governed and the way we live. And anyone who is doing anything other than guessing, wishful thinking or pessimistic indulgence has no idea.
To give an example, it is entirely plausible that the franking credit class (which is far smaller than the government tricked people into believing) will be even more terrified of an uprising of the great unwashed and will rally round Dutton in a circle the wagons move.
Especially with a government that is riding by the seat of its pants while totally unable to get out of ‘look how great we are mode’ the future holds endless possibilities – both great and terrible.
Blobbit,
“a” should be equal to 1+r, and r is {0,0.01, -0.01} for the three columns.
This illustrates the peril of what we call “magic constants” when teaching numerical computing – values that magically appear implicitly or in a line of code without statement or clear definition.
“Significant” ???
https://theconversation.com/thanks-to-coronavirus-scott-morrison-will-become-a-significant-prime-minister-135314?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton
Player One @ #222 Friday, April 3rd, 2020 – 12:25 pm
Ooops, not so! Apologies.
Can we isolate all lobbyists from MPs for the next 6 months please?
They are falling over themselves to get in the ears of those who count. Morrison will be a rabbit in their headlights.
NathanA
Not silly at all particularly when the editor is promoting the article, presumably as seminal.
These are very experienced and learned authors – not students.
The author controls how he, she or they use their references and no doubt can tell the MJA, that given the importance of the issue (undetected sufferers), additional references.
One Japanese study on evacuation flights to underpin the estimate the number of undetected cases in the Australian community is wafer thin.
“Player Onesays:
Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:25 pm
Blobbit @ #219 Friday, April 3rd, 2020 – 12:18 pm
FWIW
That’s just simple linear growth in each case.”
No it isn’t – it’s just that the “a” vaule is low for each one, so almost looks like it
This includes the difference between each row – you can see that difference increase each period.
Or if I increase the “a” value
Beaches in north Sydney packed again – what are you going to do about that Gladys?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182669/Beachgoers-Sydneys-northern-beaches-ignore-social-distancing-rules-surf-exercise.html
Blobbit @ #229 Friday, April 3rd, 2020 – 12:31 pm
Yes, I spotted my mistake as soon as I posted it.
Hang on, what are you doing their blobbit? Changing the base of the exponent? Why?
TPOF
Nice fear story.
Won’t happen. Why?
They let the boats in.
Howard’s platform of better at national security destroyed.
Also our unemployment rate has had a J curve increase.
We are in 20’s era politics with the Depression.
Lots of voters being confronted with knowing a family member without income through no fault of their own.
A wrecking ball being driven through the LNP economic model.
If we don’t become a dictatorship voters will punish the LNP.
Be in no doubt.
I never understand why Curtin is held out as a great Wartime Leader. Yes, he was a good Orator which was a require skill in those days and yes, we ended up winning but the lack of effective oversight of either MacArthur or Blamey lead to thousands of unnecessary Allied deaths, especially Australian ones, in the SW Pacific in particular in the Kokoda, Gona and Buna actions.
“Yes, I spotted my mistake as soon as I posted it.”
Must be related to me – nothing worse than sending off an email to someone, then having to send one two minutes later going “er….sorry about that”
Seems to happen to me at least once a week
Holdenhillbilly: “Beaches in north Sydney packed again – what are you going to do about that Gladys? https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182669/Beachgoers-Sydneys-northern-beaches-ignore-social-distancing-rules-surf-exercise.html”
There would seem to be two options:
1) immediately ban all NSW people from going outside for exercise
2) close access to the beaches where people are misbehaving
I would trust Gladys is sensible enough to choose option 2).
Beaches are easily cleared with a Helicopter at 10 m above ground level. NSW Police aren’t even trying. What is the problem in NSW with the heads of their key departments?
Buzzfeed News
“Dandy Murraysays:
Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:34 pm
Hang on, what are you doing their blobbit? Changing the base of the exponent? Why?”
Just to illustrate what a base of 1 gives no growth in numbers, a>1 gives growth, a<1 gives a decrease
My input into the discussion a page or so ago, where everyone was getting heated about the definition of an exponential function.
As I understand it "a" is the growth factor. "b" is related to the time constant.
Just made up numbers to illustrate the impact of the growth factor
guytaur
Gee you cannot assimilate an alternative view, can you. You always have to stick to your guns when you have no ammunition. I didn’t even say your prediction was wrong, only that it is not sustainable on current evidence.
And in regard to that last point I will only say that in a half century of very close political observation there is still one truth that hasn’t changed – without a lot of continuous prompting, voters have amazingly short memories and are very long on fear.
For my part, my best guess (and guess is all it is) is that the current government and PM will not survive the next election. For a whole bunch of reasons I won’t go into. But one thing for sure – people won’t thank them for all the goodies they are throwing about now – even if they are actually delivered (which I doubt). I suspect Scovid and co know this, which is why they are into recycling financial aid promises like they were born-again greenie zealots.
Love this comment.
Should the growth rate take into account “retirements”.
Victoria seems to suggest the equivalent of a 40% retirement rate.
China gets ‘serious’ re ‘wet markets” or at least look like it .
…………………………………………………………………………………….
China’s ban on eating and trading wildlife due to the coronavirus crisis could become law within the next three months, according to conservationists – and unlike past efforts, it may end up being permanent.
…………lead her to believe the country will introduce legislation within a few months. That is crucial and would mark a big difference to wildlife trade bans after the 2003 SARS epidemic, when there was no change in legislation.
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2239559-coronavirus-china-wildlife-trade-ban-could-become-law-within-months/#ixzz6IVfKvgSz
Morrison is already talking about how everything is going to magically “snap back” in 6 months. This tells me a lot about his thinking. I honestly don’t think Morrison understands that there will be a new normal when this is over, an Australia (and a world) that is nothing like what we had a two months ago. There will a larger number of unemployed and a lot of wealth will have gone.
I also think Morrison will try to use the same old tricks using the same old song book. The simple fact is that whilst the majority of working Australians had never experienced a recession or a downturn a lot of us remember Howards time as Treasurer and Keatings recession as well.
At the moment people think Morrison is doing a good job, in 23 months time as Morrison and Co. increase taxes, vilify the poor (a lot of whom were NOT poor at the last election) and dog whistle I think the general opinion of him will not be good.
I just don’t think he can change, the fact that he believes what he believes tells me a lot about the man. The number and degree of the scandals that have surfaced since he came to power tells a lot more. He’s lucky in one respect in that Covid-19 is sucking all the air from the dozens of scandals and open corruption within government. Will that be the case in 23 months?
You are better than that. I am sure of it.
Just heard John Citizen stuck in Peru really sticking it to Comrade Morrison.
Bucephalus: “I never understand why Curtin is held out as a great Wartime Leader. Yes, he was a good Orator…”
That’s mainly it. Even during a crisis, most politically disengaged people are not going to pay much attention to what’s going on, so they’ll mainly judge how the government is going on the basis of the leader’s messaging to them.
I’m as guilty of this as anyone. In my mind, Anna Bligh did a great job as Qld premier during the Brisbane floods, but this view is based largely on her powerful on-screen performances. I really don’t have much of an idea as to how well she and her government performed in terms of their response on the ground (and an argument can be made that various actions and inactions by the Qld Government contributed to the devastation caused by the floods).
After a shaky start, ScoMo has done pretty well in communicating to the public over the TV. So I think people will tend to think he’s doing a job, and this glow might last some time after things get better. Of course, history shows – for Bligh and others before her (most famously Winston Churchill) – that the public can judge you as having done a great job during a crisis and still vote you out of office anyway.
In terms of judging Curtin: IMO, he did some good things, but (until he blew himself up with his deranged attempt to nationalise the banks) Chifley was a giant in comparison.
Just three weeks ago we were discussing whether or not the Melbourne Grand Prix should go ahead and whether or not the PM should go to the footy.
Bucephalus says:
Friday, April 3, 2020 at 12:36 pm
I never understand why Curtin is held out as a great Wartime Leader. Yes, he was a good Orator which was a require skill in those days and yes, we ended up winning but the lack of effective oversight of either MacArthur or Blamey lead to thousands of unnecessary Allied deaths, especially Australian ones, in the SW Pacific in particular in the Kokoda, Gona and Buna actions.
____________________________________
Depends on what you see the role of the Prime Minister is. He/she is certainly not commander in chief of the armed forces and the capacity of a PM to second-guess military commanders should be limited. I don’t know much about the military issues you talk about, but unless you reckon that a PM in his position and knowing only what he did in real time about what was happening on the ground, should patently have done something different I think you are totally wrong.
By contrast, Churchill’s constant meddling did cost lives in WW2 and he is regarded as a great war leader.