Something for the weekend

Random notes: a WA only poll on coronavirus, some detail on the elections in Queensland last Saturday, and a look at Donald Trump’s counter-intuitive poll bounce.

The West Australian had a Painted Dog Research poll of 500 respondents on attitudes to the coronavirus, with field work dates undisclosed – or at least its website did, as I can’t see any mention of it in the hard copy. What the online report ($) tells us is that 71% believed the federal government should “enforce a full lockdown”; that 25% expected three months of social distancing, and 23% six months; that 18% were extremely worried about losing their job by September, with another 42% slightly worried; and that 68% were most concerned about the health impact, compared with 28% for the economic impact.

Other than that, I have the following to relate about Queensland’s elections on the weekend, which I’ll put here as the dedicated post on the subject doesn’t seem to be doing much business:

• As the dust settles on the troubled counting process, it’s clear the Liberal National Party has enjoyed something of a triumph in the election for Brisbane City Council, extending their 16-year grip on the lord mayoralty and quite probably repeating their feat from 2016 of winning 19 out 26 wards on the council. Incumbent Adrian Schrinner leads Labor’s Pat Condren in the lord mayoral race by a margin of 5.5%, although the latter gained a 4.0% swing off Graham Quirk’s landslide win in 2016. The ABC projection is awarding 17 ward seats to the LNP, to which they look very likely to add Enoggera, while maintaining a slender lead over the Greens in Paddington. The Greens’ combined council ward vote is up 3.4% on 2016 to 17.9%, and they retained their sole existing seat of The Gabba with swings of 12.2% on the primary vote and 8.5% on two-party preferred.

• However, it was a less good performance by the LNP in the two state by-elections, where all the detail is laid out at my results pages for Bundamba and Currumbin. The party finished a distant third behind One Nation in Bundamba, which remains a safe seat for Labor, and have only narrowly held on in Currumbin, where Labor has achieved a rare feat for a governing party in picking up a swing of nearly 2% at a by-election. Party leader Deb Frecklington would nonetheless be relieved by the result, since a defeat in Currumbin, which a pre-election poll suggested was in prospect, would surely have imperilled her leadership, despite her being able to point to the highly unusual circumstances in which the election was held.

• Speaking of which, I offer the following numbers on the ways the enrolled voters of Bundamba and Currumbin did and didn’t vote, with the qualification that there is an indeterminate number of postals still to be counted — perhaps rather a few of them, given I understood that there had been a surge in applications (although it seems a number of applicants never received their ballots).

Finally, a few thoughts on the situation in the United States, elaborating on a subject covered in yesterday’s post here by Adrian Beaumont – you are encouraged to comment on that thread if you have something specific to offer on matters American, and in particular on Donald Trump’s confounding opinion poll bounce over the past few weeks. I sought to put the latter event in context in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, the key feature of which is the following comparison of his approval rating trend, as measured by FiveThirtyEight, with comparable trend measures of my own for Angela Merkel, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison.

The upshot is that leaders the world over are enjoying a “rally around the flag” approval bounce, and that Donald Trump’s looks meagre indeed compared with his colleagues across the Atlantic. I feel pretty sure that the lack of a clear bounce for Scott Morrison is down to the fact that there have been no new numbers since Essential Research’s poll of over a fortnight ago, with the surges for Merkel, Johnson and Macron being concentrated since that time.

It’s also interesting to observe that Trump’s improvement has not been consistently observed. The chart below records his trends so far from this year from the five most prolific pollsters. For some reason, Rasmussen, the pollster that is usually most favourable to him — and which is accordingly the most frequent subject of his vainglorious tweets on the odd occasion when it reaches 50% — has in fact found his approval rating going in the direction he deserves. There is also no sign of change from the Ipsos series. However, the improving trend from the other three is more in line with the many other pollsters included in the FiveThirtyEight series, hence its overall picture of his best ratings since his post-election honeymoon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,303 comments on “Something for the weekend”

Comments Page 35 of 47
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  1. C@t, hope your drain clears, the caustic soda should do the trick. It is powerful stuff and clears fat and other organic matter very well.

    I was wondering how the coconut oil got into the pipe in the first place.

  3. Lizzie

    Just in case I left people confused. I am not saying Vodafone is wrong in its statement.
    Apple too does anonymised data for its AI. Its why Siri is so bad compared to Google.

  4. Victoria @ #1683 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 8:32 am

    I continue to be optimistic that there will be an effective treatment sooner rather than later.
    So many are working on it. There is bound to be success.

    That’s because every remote possibility or miniscule advancement is being breathlessly reported as a breakthrough and an imminent cure. A bit like every new cure for cancer. Never hear about the dead ends, the cures that fail in testing, the cures which turn out to be worse than the disease, or the ones which were just scams to fleece investors.

    Even the new coronavirus tests are proving elusive to find in realistic quantities yet.

  8. poroti, who do you think have the short memories? The press or the public?
    Do we get the lying rats we deserve?

  10. I did enjoy the comments yesterday reminiscing about Z-Cars and The Sweeney 🙂

    As mentioned Brian Blessed, born a few miles yonder from me in the Dearne Valley – in the days of King Coal – is one of the original cast who are still kicking

    I enjoy watching old episodes of The Sweeney for the glimpses of ‘old’ London as much as anything.

    As a true Northerner I of course take in general a very dim view of ‘that London’, but it has to be said there was something rather attractive about it’s grimy seediness back in the day – before it got yuppyfied 🙂

  11. PeeBee @ #1701 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 8:48 am

    C@t, hope your drain clears, the caustic soda should do the trick. It is powerful stuff and clears fat and other organic matter very well.

    I was wondering how the coconut oil got into the pipe in the first place.

    Thanks, Pee Bee. The Coconut Oil just got there from day after day off washing it off our frypan. My son used it to cook his Super Food stir fry every day.

  12. Puffy and poroti

    Of course, the con man series. Can’t recall the name. No wonder I don’t find him believable as either a police inspector or a Dutchman.

  13. poroti
    It goes with denialism. They’re desperate for there to be one or more of:
    – no virus,
    – someone to blame,
    – a miracle/easy solution.

    It lets them duct-tape their narrative which has been falling apart, appear to be actively doing something, blame others for not adopting it, claim things aren’t as bad as they seem, or at the very least muddy the waters.

    This is the “we create reality” crowd. It’s all about the story, and getting people to buy into it.

  16. As mentioned Brian Blessed, born a few miles yonder from me in the Dearne Valley

    I first came across him in I, Claudius.

  19. As mentioned Brian Blessed, born a few miles yonder from me in the Dearne Valley

    I first came across him in I, Claudius.
    ____
    Blessed has a deep, stentorian voice

  23. Re the UK Labour leadership result, Keir Starmer is preferable to Rebecca Long-Bailey although I gave my first preference vote to neither

    I was one of those Labour-Remainers with the minority view that Labour should bow to the inevitable on Brexit after the referendum, I’m interested now to see what stance Starmer will take

  24. BK says: Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 9:03 am

    “I first came across him in I, Claudius.”

    BK, I wish you hadn’t worded the above that way. My mind went South very quickly and naughty thoughts rolled around itching to be released. I managed to suppress them but the resultant headache is pretty bad.

  25. C@tmomma @ #1718 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 9:02 am

    lizzie @ #1715 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 8:57 am

    It’s Time

    (Who) goes anywhere without their phone?!

    I do. 🙂

    And, which was the point I was trying to make, any devious type individual who didn’t want to be tracked as they avoided social distancing strictures.

    Yeah, mastermind criminals who seek to gather together in numbers greater than 2 would turn their phones off. Police time would be better spent just turning up a fundamentalist religious places on their special day of the week if they want to find the real flouters of social distancing.

  26. p
    lots of peeps are not watching what politicians say. Politicians know it and they often just play to their base and grunts (immune to the lies) who are watching.

    And many peeps have just become desensitised to politics as a whole… and the politicians know it and often deliberately create the environment for it… then leave it to the nongs in the press to run with the ‘all as bad as each other’ BS.

    When you have nothing to offer, no ideas (except ones that are unpalatable to a switched on public), and your sole purpose is to win elections then a disinterested public is in your interest.

  27. DisplayName

    I would have thought they would like to have painted things as bad as possible so that anything less than 100% dead would be a ‘tremendous success’. But I suppose putting out there was/is a ‘miracle cure’ opens up the avenue for blaming those ‘commies’ in the CDC,WHO etc for not using it and hence they are to blame for the bigly number of dead ‘Mercans.

  29. Why do you always need to be contactable?

    I’m an antisocial bastard and don’t care if anyone can contact me or not (and, surprisingly, almost no one ever tries!)

    I still can’t help but put my phone in my pocket when I head outside, though, primarily because that niggling “what if I have an accident and need to call for help?”

  30. @EddyJokovich
    ·
    34s
    Nothing quite like having four current and recently ex-News Corp journalists on #Insiders this morning. Are all the other journalists in the world unavailable?

  31. @MadFckingWitch
    ·
    4m
    The fully-employed journalists on #Insiders now praising wage subsidies and increased welfare haven’t said ONE WORD about how none of it kicks in for at least another 4 weeks. By that time many, many people will be homeless & starving. How the fuck is this okay?

  32. lizzie, re Keir Starmer

    nothing wrong with that list .. it’s the messaging around the last item on it that needs to be carefully handled

  33. I would have thought they would like to have painted things as bad as possible so that anything less than 100% dead would be a ‘tremendous success’. But I suppose putting out there was/is a ‘miracle cure’ opens up the avenue for blaming those ‘commies’ in the CDC,WHO etc for not using it and hence they are to blame for the bigly number of dead ‘Mercans.

    To me the RWNJ behaviour in regards to the pandemic seems like it’s directly related to the culture war treatment of global warming – they have to make it a polarized political issue and line up against whatever the other side advocates, and deny, downplay, deride. The “other side” in this case, as with AGW, being experts, scientists, vaguely rational human beings in general.

    Maybe that points to some hope that covid19 might shatter that notion that reality is somehow subject to whoever shouts loudest, and if that shake-up of our political/cultural dysfunction carries over into changing the nature of the AGW debate…

  35. It’s Time @ #1725 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 7:13 am

    Yeah, mastermind criminals who seek to gather together in numbers greater than 2 would turn their phones off.

    That makes no difference. The only way to make sure you can’t be tracked while carrying a mobile phone is by removing the SIM and leaving that at home.

    Which of course defeats the purpose of taking your phone with you in the first pace.

  36. Cat: Sure, with pleasure. You remind me of bemused anyway, and life’s too short to waste it on dipsticks like you.

    Says the woman who puts oil down her sink. Let that sink in.

    It’s Time @ #1642 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 7:55 am

    It’s rubbish. It’s an optical illusion which always turns for neurological reasons. It’s got nothing to do with stress.

    It is absolutely, rock solid, still for both my daughter and myself.

  37. Jackol @ #1729 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 9:16 am

    I still can’t help but put my phone in my pocket when I head outside, though, primarily because that niggling “what if I have an accident and need to call for help?”

    Yes, I do that too. But I also turn it off if I am not using it. Most people don’t seem to realize just how much data their phone constantly broadcasts to the world about them. Why does the world need to know where I go, who I meet, who my friends are, and what shops, restaurants and cafes I frequent?

    On a somewhat related issue – with the advent of reasonably accurate facial recognition and almost universal CCTV coverage in places like the UK, has I wonder how long it will be before wearing masks in public becomes fairly common? I think Covid-19 could result in a new long-term trend!

  41. Ray (UK)

    What I like about Starmer is that he was born into, raised and educated in the ,for want of a better term, the real world. Not the comfy upper middle class -> Oxbridge conveyor belt .

  42. Morning all.

    Ray (UK)
    “ I was one of those Labour-Remainers with the minority view that Labour should bow to the inevitable on Brexit after the referendum, ”

    Good for you. The idea that Brexit was going to result in some sort of nirvana for industrial worker was one of the great lies of British politics. Sadly for working class people who believed it, it became one of the great Delusions. Factories have been closing ever since the vote. Brexit was all about City financiers escaping EU financial regulations.

  43. Sensing the great panic shopping siege coming up for Easter shutdowns – the new next week shopping rules for Coles/Woolworths in lining up in sections and being admitted on a one leaves – one enters basis and not having been shopping for at least 10 days, we thought to get up early and see if we could get anything on our needed list . To a pleasant surprise there was only one lady standing outside our local Woolies – and at 7 they let us in – even more pleasant surprise , the toilet paper shelves were half full – with 4-5 brands to choose from …… another half hours shopping , we gladly were able to get every item we had on our list …. there is a God 🙂 …… so hopefully we can now survive for another week or two of self isolation

    Hope other PBs have similar luck

    #shopping on PB

  47. phoenixRed:

    I managed to get everything I needed too, but I’d totally forgotten about easter next weekend! Bound to be more panic buying and hoarding this week.

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