As reported by The Guardian, Essential Research has unusually conducted a new poll just a week after the last. This effectively replicates last week’s suite of questions on coronavirus to tie in with an online forum later today involving The Guardian’s Katharine Murphy and Essential Research’s Peter Lewis.
The results show a sharp rise in concern since last week, with 53% now saying they are very concerned, after the three previous fortnightly polls had it progressing from 25% to 27% to 39%. Only 18% now say they consider there has been an overreaction to the thread, down from 33% last week, while 43% now think the threat has been underestimated, up from 28%. These results imply little change to last week’s finding that 39% thought the response about right, though we will presumably have to await publication of the full report later today for a complete set of numbers. The poll also finds overwhelming support for the restrictive measures that have been taken. The rise in concern appears to have been matched by a decline in skepticism about media reportage, which 42% now say they trust, up from 35% last week.
Also out today is a Roy Morgan SMS poll on coronavirus, showing 43% support for the view that the federal government is handling the crisis well with 49% disagreeing — a rather weak result by international standards (it is noted that a similar poll in the United Kingdom a bit under a fortnight ago had it at 49% and 37%). This poll finds an even higher pitch of public concern than Essential, in that only 15% believed the threat to be exaggerated, with fully 81% disagreeing. Relatedly, 80% said they were willing to sacrifice some of their “human rights” to help prevent the spread of the virus (evidently having a somewhat different conception of that term from my own), with only 14% disagreeing. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 988.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. The recorded increase in concern about the virus is not matched by a change in perceptions of the government’s handling of it, which 45% rate as good, unchanged on last week, and 31% rate as poor, up two. There is also a question on concern about climate change, which refutes the hopes of some conservative commentators in suggesting it has not been affected by the coronavirus crisis: 31% say they are more concerned than they were a year ago, 53% no more or less so, and 16% less concerned. However, the number of respondents saying Australia is not doing enough to address climate change is down from 60% in November to 55%, with doing enough up one to 23% and doing too much up one to 9%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1086.
Boerwar
“Does it mention the eruption that destroyed Atlantis (Thera) and any consequent tsunamis?”
Only briefly as a non-starter.
Thera (about 1630 BCE) was a giant among eruptions, and clearly the tsunami would have destroyed most of the boats at the time, including those on Crete, which was the major power (Minoan) at the time. The Minoans on Crete continued for a few years, apparently diminished, when they were supplanted by the Mycenaeans who flourished for about 400 years.
The Thera eruption has also been connected with the Exodus – but again the timing is completely out. The story of Atlantis is quite likely derived as a legend from the destruction of Santorini.
As for Exodus – it appears to be almost completely made up at a much later date. There is NO archaeological evidence for the Exodus, nor for the invasion into Canaan by Joshua.
The timing of Exodus does fit in the Late Bronze Age Collapse – the date 1177 BCE is exaggerating the abruptness – when the Mycenaeans, the Egyptians and the Hittites all went downhill.
Some of the best evidence is from the “Canaanite” region which was later called “Phoenicean” where destruction was widespread, but there is little evidence of “whodunnit”.
The Philistines (Palestinians) who settled in Gaza were part of the invasion of the Sea Peoples.
Generally the invaders came from the north, including Greece and Cyprus, and were well-equipped. However, their organisation and urbanisation is still unknown.
The subsequent reorganisation led to new city-states, the first alphabet, monotheistic religion, and democracy!!
link?
Indaily says only 6 baggage handlers. Is someone saying their families are also in todays 32?
The bad news is it is another hotspot.
It turns out that the $750 to jobseekers and pensioners will happen anytime between today and the end of April, so it’s already blown out from “up to April 17”.
What a fucking shambles/
Looks like all I’m going to get from “briefly ” is insults.
I must be doing something right.
Doubling
Cases since 20
‘Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 4:38 pm
Mavis @ #355 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 1:06 pm
Austria has recently made it compulsory to wear a face mask in supermarkets. And if you’re not seen wearing one in public in cities such as Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Seoul you’re seen as a pariah. I think it’s only a matter of time before it’s mandated here; that is, when and if stocks become available:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-austria/austria-to-make-basic-face-masks-compulsory-in-supermarkets-idUSKBN21H16A
I’d happily wear a mask if I knew where to find one. ‘
There are home made ones using bra cups. Better than nothing, and they are sure to make you the cynosure of your set.
Blobbit says:
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 4:06 pm
“Shellbellsays:
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 3:33 pm
Our numbers were similar to Canada for a while but they have now skipped well ahead”
Be hard for Canada with the US on the border. Given that, they seem to have done remarkably well.
———————————————————
More than 80 per cent of Canadians live within a two-hour drive of the U.S. border. Some estimates are that 90 per cent live within 100 miles of “the world’s longest undefended border.” Trump last week suggested posting soldiers along the border, a suggestion that didn’t go over very well with Justin Trudeau who lives 45 minutes from the border, in Ottawa.
phy
Thanks. The main message seems to have to be relearned by every civilization: don’t rest on your laurels.
The Austrian supermarkets are required to hand out a face mask at the door, to anyone wanting to enter without one.
Redman mowerman, rather a simple conclusion. Food that is consumed does release CO2, but this is not a problem as it is the same CO2 that was absorbed by the plants as they were growing. Zero sum game.
The fossil fuel used to plough, fertiliser (particularly the manufacture of nitrogenous fertilisers), harvesting and transport of food adds to the CO2 content in the air, as does the manufacture of material/machinery used in the farming process.
Methane is a problem with ruminants burping. It is produced by the microbes in the gut as they digest cellulose and making the energy available to the host. This is a problem as methane is 21 times more potent as a greenhouse gas as CO2. This farming these animals leads to an increase to the greenhouse effect.
Farming also increases land clearing and reduces soil carbon both these processes increase CO2 in the atmosphere.
The reduction of atmospheric CO2 you mentioned is more likely due to reduction in transport and manufacturing as the worlds’s economies take a breather because of the corona virus and has nothing to do with farming, which appears to continue adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
Having said that, I hope the farmers keep churning out food, I like to eat.
This is good.
https://twitter.com/dameyon/status/1244541746597384192
What to wear when shopping for toilet paper.
A generally good Australian response is completely undermined by the debacle on the morning of the 19th March, and the days before when the 2 ‘of the Seas’ infected vessels docked.
ACT’s first COVID-19 death was a Ruby Princess passenger
By Megan Gorrey
A woman in her 80s who was the first person to die from coronavirus in Canberra contracted the illness on board the Ruby Princess cruise ship, health authorities say.
ACT Health announced yesterday the woman had died at Canberra Hospital over the weekend, but did not release further details.
New Zealand releases their C19 modelling…
https://www.health.govt.nz/publication/covid-19-modelling-reports
This says plenty about the Idiot!
Aw, the poor ickle “celebrity”, how dare they treat her like the rest of the oiks!
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/coronavirus-celebrity-chef-lyndey-milan-angered-over-hotel-quarantine/news-story/eb56808aa755747edcc3861b2774ffbe
WA cases last 24 hours = 9
Testing for anyone with flu like symptoms starts Thursday so we will see how we go then
Given that we still need to get to zero net emissions cos if the Virus does not get us, global warming will still cook our goose… given all that…
Ag generates a bit over 10% of our emissions. It generates something like 30% of NZ emissions.
There is no doubt at all in my mind that global warming is going to kill far, far more peeps than the Virus.
We still have to get to zero. A good start would be for the Greens to give up meat, cow milk, woollens, leather and glue made from cloven hooves. And flying. And, credit where credit is due, they have ALL stopped flying!
A massive driver for change will be plant meat.
Briefly is professional “Harsh”. He has no sense of humour.
He is the Strelnikov of Poll Bludger. There is no situation that an impromptu trackside firing squad cannot fix.
BK
When we first moved into this suburb there was a pet cocky a couple of streets up which used to call out, ‘Andrew! Andreeeeeeeeeeeewwwwwwwww!’
We never did find out who Andrew was.
Kronomex
I’m surprised with Lyndey Milan
From recollection, her only son passed away suddenly a few years back. He was diagnosed with some type of cancer and died within days
DM
X fingers!
Boerwar @ #419 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 5:26 pm
A more effective driver would be carnivorous plants.
Danama Papers says:
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 5:07 pm
It turns out that ‘
…tomorrow is April fool’s day.
“Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 5:26 pm
Given that we still need to get to zero net emissions cos if the Virus does not get us, global warming will still cook our goose… given all that…”
A good contribution to restarting the economy might be some government investment in renewables.
Maybe $20B in renewable energy, including setting up some factories here to make wind turbines or PV cells.
The shutdown you have when you are too gutless to oppose the Prime Minister for the sake of your own citizens …
“Transperth will temporarily scale down its bus and train services from Monday after a 75 per cent drop in passenger numbers.”
So, looks like all this is having some on the ground effect
How COVID-19 kills:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J0d59dd-qM
For the non medical amongst us.
I would counsel some caution before jumping aboard the outrage train about people complaining about the quarantine conditions.
Firstly anyone using the “five-star” descriptor is setting up a narrative. “Five-star” rating for hotels tends to be based on the facilities offered – eg a hotel pool, a gym, a restaurant etcetera. Obviously none of which are at all relevant to the quarantine situation, and so neither is the “five star” descriptor.
But mainly this: two weeks locked in a small room, unable to exercise basic autonomy like “what am I going to eat”, is not a doddle even if the bed is very comfortable. There’s a reason that solitary confinement is considered harsh even by prison standards, and it’s not because the bed is worse. So let em vent about the food I say, I reckon it would be a lot harder than it sounds.
Blobbit
I hope they haven’t done a Sadiq Khan. Patronage dropped off due to virus, slash services, voila ! people getting crowded together on remaining buses/trains.
beguiledagain @ #407 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 4:11 pm
Maybe that would help to keep the dirty Yanks in?!
BREAKING: April 1st has been renamed “Trump Day”.
Trump wants to use the military to STOP people from entering the US?
“porotisays:
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 5:39 pm
Blobbit
I hope they haven’t done a Sadiq Khan. Patronage dropped off due to virus, slash services, voila ! people getting crowded together on remaining buses/trains.”
Me too. It appears not from the services they’ve described as being cut. TBH, I’d prefer that they kept the services running to keep the Transperth staff employed.
Train services on Monday to Saturday will operate on a Saturday timetable
Bus services on Monday to Saturday will operate on a Saturday timetable
CAT services will operate on a reduced frequency
Ferries will operate on a Winter timetable.
Ch 10 news.
Border Force under fire for signing a contract with Swissotel that put 14 day isolationists in same building with existing residents. Interviewed an unhappy resident who said she shared the lifts with workers carrying used bedding from isolationists. Also criticised by Labor.
Border force claimed it was the best they could do in the circumstances. Obviously there was absolutely no forward planning for this eventuality.
Nothing like the possibility of being blamed for a mountain of dead bodies to concentrate the mind of a pollies. Even on dense ones. Worked a treat for Bo-herd immunity-Jo and now it has even managed to penetrate the orange leather hide of Trump…
…………………………………………………………………….
The Numbers That Drove Trump’s Reversal on Reopening the Country
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/politics/trump-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
What are we paying these nincompoops for?
BW
“Transperth will temporarily scale down its bus and train services from Monday after a 75 per cent drop in passenger numbers.”
Transport demand has dropped across the board. Traffic volumes are down across Australia. Check Google maps for your cities and set the traffic congestion display on. It colour codes all the roads for congestion based on real time data from the time it takes mobile phone pings to travel along a road. Right now, PM peak hour on a Tuesday there is very little congestion across all our capital cities. To see how unusual that is, you can change the display from “Live traffic” to “typical traffic” and vary the typical time to 5pm on a Tuesday. You will soon see the difference. You can try it for Sydney. See the difference as you toggle back onto Live Traffic.
https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Sydney+NSW/@-33.8944786,150.9910165,12z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x6b129838f39a743f:0x3017d681632a850!8m2!3d-33.8688197!4d151.2092955!5m1!1e1
In fact, the current conditions demonstrate how much we could save on new transport infrastructure, if we practiced some demand management and improved traffic control.
Full report from Essential Research. Among other things, no support for the notion propagated by some conservatives that coronavirus has somehow shown up climate change as an issue of concern.
https://essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Essential-Report-300320-D1.pdf
Bloody hell!!
“The number of family violence incidents reported to police in Western Australia has increased by 11% a day since the coronavirus crisis began.”
And trump has the hide to question China’s statistics..
“VP Mike Pence has taken the extraordinary step of asking the nation’s nearly 4,700 hospitals to submit via email daily updates to a federal inbox on how many patients have been tested for novel coronavirus.”
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-house-hospitals-email-data-coronavirus-patients/story?id=69876684&cid=social_twitter_abcn
That’s a doubling time of 6.6 days, in the parlance of our times.
“BKsays:
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 5:50 pm
Bloody hell!!
“The number of family violence incidents reported to police in Western Australia has increased by 11% a day since the coronavirus crisis began.””
Yep. That’s one of the costs of going to a lock down. Not saying it isn’t necessary, but the idea that this is “cost free” is nonsense.
Boerwar
“A massive driver for change will be plant meat.”
Weren’t people, anecdotally, leaving that on the shelves while stocking up? :-P.
I believe The Guardian has the wrong end of the handle here. Here’s what the relevant press release actually says:
Blobbit
Also at the same time bottle shop sales are up more than 30%.
Join the dots.
phoenixRED says:
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 4:33 pm
briefly says: Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 4:19 pm
Redlands Mowerman says:
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 4:13 pm
You are an imbecile.
**************************************************************
I think you are being a bit harsh Briefly
Ok then. I should describe it more accurately as inane drive-by denialist polemic…..
Update, C19 Cases (5pm Qld time)
Today’s Reported Cases
* 4,560 https://www.covid19data.com.au/
Today’s Curve Projections
* 4,971 exponential
* 4,566 logistic
* 4,439 normal
Tomorrow’s Curve Projections
* 5,355 exponential
* 4,692 logistic
* 4,851 normal
Comments
* I do not know the underlying shape of the curve.
* The exponential graph ‘kinked’ 3 days ago, but there’s not enough data to analyse.
* I’m only posting the exponential projection for completeness.
* Hence I revisited two S curves.
* The S curves have their mid-points at 2020-03-26 11am (logistic), and 2020-03-27 9am (normal).
* The S curves are asymptotic to 5,500 (logistic), and 6,100 (normal).
Pure speculation
* The S curves are consistent in implying that the rate of new cases changed 5 days ago.
* IF there is a 10 day lag in the reported cases maybe something changed 15 days ago in the real world. (Monday, 16th March)
* What I recall about that Monday is reflecting on the weekend’s toilet paper stampede.
* ???
———-
4,557 https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers
4,557 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/
4,560 https://www.covid19data.com.au/
WB
There you go proving the adage “There’s no such thing as a fact if it’s only what somebody reported”.