Essential Research and Roy Morgan: more coronavirus polling

Two new polls suggest early skepticism about the threat posed by coronavirus is fast disappearing.

As reported by The Guardian, Essential Research has unusually conducted a new poll just a week after the last. This effectively replicates last week’s suite of questions on coronavirus to tie in with an online forum later today involving The Guardian’s Katharine Murphy and Essential Research’s Peter Lewis.

The results show a sharp rise in concern since last week, with 53% now saying they are very concerned, after the three previous fortnightly polls had it progressing from 25% to 27% to 39%. Only 18% now say they consider there has been an overreaction to the thread, down from 33% last week, while 43% now think the threat has been underestimated, up from 28%. These results imply little change to last week’s finding that 39% thought the response about right, though we will presumably have to await publication of the full report later today for a complete set of numbers. The poll also finds overwhelming support for the restrictive measures that have been taken. The rise in concern appears to have been matched by a decline in skepticism about media reportage, which 42% now say they trust, up from 35% last week.

Also out today is a Roy Morgan SMS poll on coronavirus, showing 43% support for the view that the federal government is handling the crisis well with 49% disagreeing — a rather weak result by international standards (it is noted that a similar poll in the United Kingdom a bit under a fortnight ago had it at 49% and 37%). This poll finds an even higher pitch of public concern than Essential, in that only 15% believed the threat to be exaggerated, with fully 81% disagreeing. Relatedly, 80% said they were willing to sacrifice some of their “human rights” to help prevent the spread of the virus (evidently having a somewhat different conception of that term from my own), with only 14% disagreeing. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 988.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. The recorded increase in concern about the virus is not matched by a change in perceptions of the government’s handling of it, which 45% rate as good, unchanged on last week, and 31% rate as poor, up two. There is also a question on concern about climate change, which refutes the hopes of some conservative commentators in suggesting it has not been affected by the coronavirus crisis: 31% say they are more concerned than they were a year ago, 53% no more or less so, and 16% less concerned. However, the number of respondents saying Australia is not doing enough to address climate change is down from 60% in November to 55%, with doing enough up one to 23% and doing too much up one to 9%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1086.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,376 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan: more coronavirus polling”

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  1. WWP @ 3.23 pm:

    Not sure about your Singapore marooned package but I do know that in Germany DHL are advising that they will no longer accept any packages destined for Australia due to transportation issues.

    EDIT: minor word change.

  2. “Shellbellsays:
    Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 3:33 pm
    Our numbers were similar to Canada for a while but they have now skipped well ahead”

    Be hard for Canada with the US on the border. Given that, they seem to have done remarkably well.

  3. Exactly what do you mean by the National Interest?

    Any company that fits the definition of being too big to fail does so only because there is some aspect of the services that company provides to the national interest that makes it so.
    For example any of the big 4 banks is “too big to fail” so we had to provide guarantees to them during the GFC.
    Qantas came cap in hand a few weeks ago looking for (and receiving) $750 million. A few days later they stood down 80% of their workforce.
    If a company is “too big to fail” then as far as I’m concerned our government has failed to do their job. First and foremost an economy exists simply as a result of a society.
    A “free” market is a market that is left to itself, at the moment we are seeing a massive 180 degree turn to socialism to bail out and/or protect the so called “free market”.
    As far as I’m concerned we either nationalise any company that is so critical to our survival that it isn’t allowed to fail and that that can’t stand on it’s own feet OR we provide assistance using the same market mechanism in which the company operates (i.e. ownership via shares).
    In the same way I don’t give a child money to stop having a tantrum we shouldn’t give private companies public funds to survive outside of the market (i.e. share purchase for short term liquidity or contracts for public works / services in the medium to long term).

  4. E. G. Theodore @ #343 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 3:59 pm

    For example, there is currently s risk that as the noise from Cruise Ships etc dissipates (causing the aggregate to fall) it hides a rise in underlying growth.

    Note that whilst this particular case can perhaps be accounted for and thus removed from the aggregate, there may be other cases where this cannot be done

    I wondered about that. Has anyone actually tried to remove the Plague Ship effect to see just how we would be doing if it were not for that one stonkingly bad decision?

  5. “Shellbellsays:
    Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 3:42 pm
    What happens in South Australia if there is a run of very small increases for several days?”

    We say that there are at least 10 times as many cases and that everyone should remain in lock down indefinitely.

    (yeah, ok, cheap shot)

  6. “E. G. Theodore @ #343 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 3:59 pm

    For example, there is currently s risk that as the noise from Cruise Ships etc dissipates (causing the aggregate to fall) it hides a rise in underlying growth.”

    That doesn’t really make sense. If there’s growth, given that it would show in the testing criteria (1), then the additional cases will simply show as a spike. If you mean that the additional cases might hide a trend, then that’s pretty simply accounted for. Cruise ship numbers are now explicitly known, so the separate sources can be tracked.

    (1) yes, I know. Testing criteria means that there are at least 10x as many cases.

  7. Well……..the planes have stopped, cars have stopped, the world as a whole has pretty much stopped and the Co2 levels have dropped!
    Yet the farmers haven’t stopped. They’re still getting up to milk the cows , lambing and calving is in full swing, chooks are laying, the cattle and pigs are still being fed, the crops are being planted, yet the CO2 has dropped.
    Maybe agriculture isn’t quite as bad as the media, Greens and vegans have been making out …. maybe the world isn’t going to end because of our livestock and farming. Maybe, just maybe, agriculture is actually going to be the thing to save everyone when this world needs feeding and we cannot import products already grown here from Asia, the Americas or NZ ….
    So buy local, eat local, buy Australian, eat fresh…

  8. “Seven people who were infected with coronavirus while onboard the cruise ship Artania are in intensive care at Perth hospitals, taking the total in Western Australia to 12.”

    So, four in intensive care excluding the known cruise ship cases.

  9. “Shellbellsays:
    Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 3:42 pm
    What happens in South Australia if there is a run of very small increases for several days?”

    Given that the virus can last 2 to 3 weeks in people and remain infectious until the end of that period I imagine there would need to be a waiting period for any infectious but asymptomatic people. After that time we could start relaxing internal restrictions. Restrictions on external travel will still be needed until it is under control worldwide.

  10. Why would the Commonwealth want to own possibly defunct airlines? Why would the Commonwealth want to take loss-making hospitals into public ownership? There is absolutely no public interest justification for acquiring these kind of firms. None. There is an argument for providing emergency funding to businesses, workers and households in order to keep the economy going. But there’s no obvious public interest to be served by a policy of nationalising crisis-struck entities. This would have to be an absolute last resort.

  11. daves

    Coronavirus turbo charges disruption

    Indeedy do. Just like that the digital work at home has seen out with Casual Friday and in with Formal Friday. 🙂
    .
    ….spending their second day of a nationwide lockdown dressed to the nines as part of the burgeoning #formalFridays movement.

    The practice, introduced to the world by US talkshow host Jimmy Kimmel,…..

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/new-zealand-scrubs-up-for-formalfridays-despite-coronavirus-lockdown

  12. Redlands Mowerman says:
    Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 4:13 pm

    Well……..the planes have stopped, cars have stopped, the world as a whole has pretty much stopped and the Co2 levels have dropped!
    Yet the farmers haven’t stopped. They’re still getting up to milk the cows , lambing and calving is in full swing, chooks are laying, the cattle and pigs are still being fed, the crops are being planted, yet the CO2 has dropped.

    You are an imbecile.

  13. Puffy:

    Sk,
    I have never met Marshall. Does he really exist?

    Messrs Marshall and Weatherill are both good guys, and both would be trusted across the (normal part of the) political spectrum to do the best they can in difficult circumstances. In this case it’s Mr Marshall in the hot seat.

  14. All Ords was up almost 200 points this morning, then lost ground to close down 83 at 5110.6.

    The close out auction ramp up didn’t work so well today, but came in from 119 points down to the number shown above.

  15. briefly @ #369 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 4:17 pm

    Why would the Commonwealth want to own possibly defunct airlines? Why would the Commonwealth want to take loss-making hospitals into public ownership? There is absolutely no public interest justification for acquiring these kind of firms. None. There is an argument for providing emergency funding to businesses, workers and households in order to keep the economy going. But there’s no obvious public interest to be served by a policy of nationalising crisis-struck entities. This would have to be an absolute last resort.

    Well, I guess you have two choices: (1) you have essential service providers as nationally owned assets, or (2) you subsidise these service providers to make them attractive to private investors, and then bail them out every time they get into trouble and squeal.

    Question: Which one will end up costing you more? In both money and lives?

  16. SK
    “Do I hear the death rattle of private health insurance in Australia?”

    Every cloud has a silver lining. The sooner government subsidies to it are killed off, the sooner we find the first $6+ billion per annum to repay our newly increased debt.

  17. Interesting how the numbers work in the stockmarket – if the market falls say 50% – it means it has to double – increase 100% to get back to where it started.

    As at COB today the market after a week of big gains now ‘only’ needs to increase about another 42% to get back to its late February high.

  18. The 750M slung to the airlines earlier in March was in the form of waived fees and charges (fuel excise, air navigation charges, aviation security charges).

    It was backdated to February 1 so the airlines would have seen some cash, but a lot of it never eventuated since they greatly reduced flying anyway.

  19. Michael Rowland
    @mjrowland68
    · 8h

    Message from ‘Rob’ whose daughter is helping administer the quarantine scheme for returned Australians at a 5-star hotel. Says she is dismayed at the attitude of some..including requests for free champagne and rooms with a better view. #COVID19aus @BreakfastNews

    If only they were on Christmas Island!!

  20. briefly says: Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 4:19 pm

    Redlands Mowerman says:
    Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 4:13 pm

    You are an imbecile.

    **************************************************************

    I think you are being a bit harsh Briefly

    I think parts of Redlands Mowerman comments were quite valid and positive – and we need support those doing it tough in rural areas – keeping vegetables, fruit, meat , milk etc in our local supermarkets

    ” Yet the farmers haven’t stopped. They’re still getting up to milk the cows , lambing and calving is in full swing, chooks are laying, the cattle and pigs are still being fed, the crops are being planted, yet the CO2 has dropped.
    Maybe, just maybe, agriculture is actually going to be the thing to save everyone when this world needs feeding and we cannot import products already grown here from Asia, the Americas or NZ ….
    So buy local, eat local, buy Australian, eat fresh…”

  21. Government owning some industries. Consider the Superannuation funds. Some are all for their members, industry. Some have to make a profit for the shareholders of the institution that owns it,banksters. Which ones are giving the public the most value for money ?

    It would likely be the same for other “public good” services like health and education. Public ‘service’ eats into profits so cutting staff/service/upping charges is always a tempting way to go for them. Profit first public second. Just ask the retail funds.

  22. lizzie @ #380 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 4:27 pm

    Michael Rowland
    @mjrowland68
    · 8h

    Message from ‘Rob’ whose daughter is helping administer the quarantine scheme for returned Australians at a 5-star hotel. Says she is dismayed at the attitude of some..including requests for free champagne and rooms with a better view. #COVID19aus @BreakfastNews

    If only they were on Christmas Island!!

    Name & Shame them – are these the so called ‘decent’ people morrison talks about.

    Put their names addresses and comments on the front pages of the papers.

  23. One of the reasons why we had a motor industry, a reason that people forgot, was not because we wanted to subsidise American or Japanese companies or that we liked to have our own brand of car but because by having our own motor industry we had, within Australia, medium / heavy vehicle manufacturing capability that could be co-opted as needed.
    In the US GM, Ford and Tesla are busy retooling and building ventilators (weeks later than they should but that is Trumps fault), we can’t ramp up to the same degree thanks to certain cigar smoking arsehats.

    In the case of national emergencies we should have manufacturing capabilities, the fact that we’ve seen factories close and move to the third world to save costs (i.e. exploit labour) is a travesty but also the “free market”.

  24. “Exactly what do you mean by the National Interest?”

    All ‘strayans should go out of their way to save Scotty from Marketing and Crony Co. Inc. from oblivion?

  25. SA Health has done a good job in the test and trace department in the past two weeks. New cases have dropped to single figures here too today, including ones linked to the Ruby Princess. Without them the results were flattening days ago.

  26. As an alternative to nationalisation – make it like a HECS debt. 2% extra tax. Or maybe a much lower percentage on revenue.

    Of course, that’ll help make businesses uncompetitive internationally.

  27. Mavis @ #355 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 1:06 pm

    Austria has recently made it compulsory to wear a face mask in supermarkets. And if you’re not seen wearing one in public in cities such as Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Seoul you’re seen as a pariah. I think it’s only a matter of time before it’s mandated here; that is, when and if stocks become available:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-austria/austria-to-make-basic-face-masks-compulsory-in-supermarkets-idUSKBN21H16A

    I’d happily wear a mask if I knew where to find one. 🙂

  28. “Exactly what do you mean by the National Interest?”

    All ‘strayans should go out of their way to save Scotty from Marketing and Crony Co. Inc. from oblivion?

    Player One:
    “The issue would be over if some people didn’t insist on re-raising it every day.”

    Then how about you, again, take your own advice and fucking stop inflaming the situation by continually digging in like a tick and needling!

  29. “Mr Cook also said $15 million worth of hospital equipment was on it way to WA, including 301 ventilators, 200 humidifiers and 200 fully equipped ICU beds”

    I do wish they’d say when they expect that sort of thing to arrive though

  30. I don’t think I’ve heard a more mealy-mouthed performance from a leading Labor politician than the just finished interview with Richard Marles by Patricia Karvelas.

    Marles seemed to be bending over backwards to avoid saying anything that might remotely be interpreted as criticism of the Coalition. He refused to state a clear policy on any of the central issues in the present crisis.

    Those of us who are hoping for a greater role for government in health care and quasi monopolies such as airline transport will be extremely disappointed if Labor doesn’t take advantage of the current crisis to roll back the neo-Liberal agenda.

    Labor has to make it clear that it will not continue the policy of socializing losses and privatizing profits.

    Heaven help us progressives if Marles reflects the current state of thinking in the government-in-waiting.

  31. “Socratessays:
    Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 4:37 pm
    SA Health has done a good job in the test and trace department in the past two weeks. New cases have dropped to single figures here too today, including ones linked to the Ruby Princess. Without them the results were flattening days ago.”

    Spoke too soon?

    “South Australia has recorded 32 new cases of coronavirus, taking the state’s total to 337. Authorities are investigating a cluster of coronavirus cases among Qantas baggage handlers at the Adelaide Airport. Six baggage handlers have tested positive”

  32. On the matter of washing vegetables:

    Not sure how effective it is against C 19, but when my daughter lived in Mumbai she was advised to sterilize all vegetables and salad items in a bath of Milton solution, the one used to sterilize baby bottles.

  33. GoldenSmaug @ #386 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 4:36 pm

    One of the reasons why we had a motor industry, a reason that people forgot, was not because we wanted to subsidise American or Japanese companies or that we liked to have our own brand of car but because by having our own motor industry we had, within Australia, medium / heavy vehicle manufacturing capability that could be co-opted as needed.
    In the US GM, Ford and Tesla are busy retooling and building ventilators (weeks later than they should but that is Trumps fault), we can’t ramp up to the same degree thanks to certain cigar smoking arsehats.

    In the case of national emergencies we should have manufacturing capabilities, the fact that we’ve seen factories close and move to the third world to save costs (i.e. exploit labour) is a travesty but also the “free market”.

    And it wasn’t just the ‘heavy’ manufacturing industry that we have lost. We have lost most of the supporting ‘light’ manufacturing industries, plus the trained engineers, technicians and skilled workers that went along with them.

    Pretty much all we are left with is a country that knows how to dig holes and make lattes. And not much in between 🙁

  34. Blobbit

    The graph had been looking good until then. With most of these new cases linked to the airport baggage handlers, there is still minimal community transmission in SA.

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