The fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses, naturally enough, on coronavirus, with 45% rating the federal government’s response good or very good, and 29% poor or very poor. According to The Guardian’s report, it would seem the latter tend to be those most worried about the virus, as measured by a question on whether respondents felt the situation was being overblown, with which “one third” agreed while 28% thought the opposite.
Over the course of three fortnightly polls, the proportion rating themselves very concerned has escalated from 25% to 27% to 39%, while the results for quite concerned have gone from 43% to 36% and back again. The Guardian’s report does not relate the latest results for “not that concerned” and “not at all concerned”, which were actually up in the last poll, from 26% to 28% and 6% to 9% respectively. Further questions relate to trust in various sources of information, notably the government and the media, but we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today to get a clear handle on them. Suffice to say that Essential still has nothing to tell us on voting intention.
In other findings, 49% said they wanted the opposition to fall in behind the government’s decisions while 33% preferred that it review and challenge them, and 42% now consider themselves likely to catch the virus, up from 31% on a fortnight ago. Seventy-two per cent reported washing their hands more often, 60% said they were avoiding social gatherings, and 33% reported stocking up on groceries.
We also have a Roy Morgan SMS survey of 723 respondents, which was both conducted and published yesterday, showing 79% support for the government’s decision to allow those in financial difficulty to access $20,000 of their superannuation. As noted in the previous post, an earlier such poll of 974 respondents from Wednesday and Thursday recorded levels of trust in various Australian politicians (plus Jacinda Ardern, who fared best of all); a further set of results from the same poll finds Dick Smith, Mike Cannon-Brookes, Andrew Forrest and Alan Joyce rating best out of designated list of business leaders, with Rupert Murdoch, Clive Palmer, Gina Rinehart and Gerry Harvey performed worst. We are yet to receive hard numbers from either set of questions, but they are apparently forthcoming.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.
BK: ‘remember many weeks ago saying here that the US was riddled with C-19 but didn’t know it.’
I don’t think that would be the case. Firstly, it is speculation, could be true, but then again, could also be not true.
The second reason, if it were true, by now the hospitals would be overcrowded and coffins will be in short supply.
Dandy Murray @ #2946 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 1:40 pm
I’d argue that it is entirely representative of the broad swathe of Australian culinary habits. We have everything here from your Wellness culinary cuisine to every variety of restaurant fare based upon nationalities from all over the world, to all the fast food franchises.
PeeBee says:
Friday, March 27, 2020 at 1:50 pm
BK: ‘remember many weeks ago saying here that the US was riddled with C-19 but didn’t know it.’
I don’t think that would be the case. Firstly, it is speculation, could be true, but then again, could also be not true.
The second reason, if it were true, by now the hospitals would be overcrowded and coffins will be in short supply.
And I suppose all those people that came back from the US infected picked it up at 40000 feet.
From the Energy Regulator:
To ensure the continued safe and reliable supply of energy to homes and businesses, and to support both residential and small business customers experiencing financial stress, we expect retailers, distributors and exempt sellers to adhere to the following principles to the maximum extent possible.
These principles are intended to ensure the protection of customers and the market through this difficult time.
1. Offer all residential and small business customers who indicate they may be in financial stress a payment plan or hardship arrangement, regardless of whether the customer meets the ‘usual’ criteria for that assistance.
2. Do not disconnect any residential or small business customers who may be in financial stress, without their agreement, before 31 July 2020 and potentially beyond.
3. Do not disconnect any large business customer, without their agreement, before 31 July 2020, and potentially beyond, if that customer is on-selling energy to residential or small business customers (for example, in residential parks or retirement villages).
4. Defer referrals of customers to debt collection agencies for recovery actions, or credit default listing until at least 31 July 2020.
5. Be prepared to modify existing payment plans if a customer’s changed circumstances make this necessary.
6. Waive disconnection, reconnection and/or contract break fees for small businesses that have ceased operation, along with daily supply charges to retailers, during any period of disconnection until at least 31 July 2020.
7. Prioritise the safety of customers who require life support equipment and continue to meet
responsibilities to new life support customers.
8. Prioritise clear, up-to-date communications with customers about the issues addressed in this Statement, including by keeping website, social media and call centre waiting and hold messages up to date, so customers can readily access updates when they need them and relieve some pressure on affected call centres.
9. Prioritise clear communications with customers about the availability of retailer and other supports, including the availability of payment plans, energy efficiency advice and fault repair.
10. Minimise the frequency and duration of planned outages for critical works, and provide as much notice as possible to assist households and businesses to manage during any outage.
https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/aer-statement-of-expectations-of-energy-businesses_1.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3_ct2TeLfNalEtWOZEBBTmuzN7D9k-v2kb1SStFP3VLrdOXZu7gdDnNKI
Sprocket
“A multimillion dollar circumnavigation of Australia by a replica of Captain James Cook’s ship Endeavour to mark the 250th anniversary of his arrival has been suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”
As a replacement, why not hire back the Ruby Princess (going very cheap, and they owe us), load it with all the returning air passengers and others in self-isolation (including Dutton), then sail it around Australia for two weeks, landing at Botany Bay, with a ceremonial helicopter airlift of the sickest to hospital? Time its arrival to coincide with Scomo’s second anniversary in office. Very fitting.
“We have had a much higher testing regimen than most countries. our incidence figures are probably a truer measure of actual cases. ”
Yes OC.
So our reported figures are only wrong by a factor if 5 or so – rather than a factor of 20 elsewhere.
How does this help?
C@tmomma @ #2303 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 12:31 pm
They probably imported a new strain of it from somewhere else, like the States?
On ICU, lots of patients deteriorate after having relatively mild symptoms for a week which historically means a superimposed infection (like staph pneumonia in influenza) but these patients just go downhill for no reason.
a r @ #2958 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 2:09 pm
Via the dastardly American Army!
What is the current Australian case count?
Nvm found
3050
Cud Chewer @ #2959 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 1:15 pm
https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers
What time steps are you using?
Once this emergency is sorted we really have to do something about cruise ships. They’re apparently floating microbiological incubators. I recall there were issues during the Swine Flu epidemic, with passengers being allowed to disembark in Sydney without any checks. This time around we seemed to have no processes in place, we make them up as we go along.
We were OK back in 2009 because Swine Flu turned out to be not much worse than normal flu. It’s much more serious this time.
Our contingency plans need to devote a chapter to cruise ships. In fact, maybe we need processes during a normal flu season.
Steve777
says:
Friday, March 27, 2020 at 2:21 pm
Once this emergency is sorted we really have to do something about cruise ships.
___________________
Honestly. Why someone would enjoy floating around eating frozen food for weeks is beyond me.
Commentary from one of the high profile Doctors who suggested we could hit 10,000 by end of March
[Dan Suan is with Tim Fazio.
Yesterday at 7:57 AM ·
Good morning
Sorry we are a day late, Tim and I are both doctors, and believe it or not, we actually have work to do!
We feel like the #StayHome message is really out there now, so we’ll be posting less and focusing on our roles at our hospitals.
Here is the updated graph.
The last Australian data point is from Wednesday the 25th of March (data from European CDC).
Interpretation:
1. Given that any point in the graph (e.g. now) reflects the actions taken 1-2 weeks ago, we’re not surprised the number of cases continues to rise at roughly the same rate, doubling roughly every three days; this is expected.
2. Australia’s curve remains less steep than those from European countries, but still too steep!
3. America is a disaster, particularly New York, whilst Seattle and the Bay Area are doing much better (individual American cities not shown here).
There are a lot of POSITIVE aspects to Australia’s pandemic (also not shown here): Australia has a VERY low death rate, high testing rate compared to most countries, great public hospital system, and a high proportion of cases related to returned travellers who can be quarantined and their contacts traced carefully.
I really believe everything that the community and government has done will start to show up in our curve soon. This is my personal opinion; we will know in the next 1-2 weeks.
There is NO ROOM for complacency.
In terms of ACTION, the next week is absolutely critical.
The government continues to tighten social distancing measures.
We continue to plead with everyone to take PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY to do your best to remove yourself and your families from the viral transmission process.
The 5 simple rules haven’t changed:
1. Stay at home
2. Don’t touch anything (when you go out)
3. Don’t touch anyone (when you go out)
4. Don’t touch your face
5. Wash your hands frequently
…
Big hugs,
Dan Suan MBBS FRACP FRCPA PhD]
It is was all the prawn cocktails they dish up on those cruises wot dunnit 🙂
——————————————–
‘Patient zero’ at Wuhan seafood market identified
………….. to test positive for the virus was a woman selling live shrimps.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12320402
Wow: they’re going to take my advice from this morning and start quarantining all arrivals from overseas in hotels in the city of arrival!
You read it here first folks.
I spent some time in Penneshaw recently while cruise ship passengers were there. And it reminded me of large US travel groups I occasionally bumped into when travelling near the Danube.
Something happens to these people when they embark on these trips. They turn into mindless, loud zombies. They snail around the place like they are unaware of where they have come from and oblivious to where they are going. They speak in a language that is a mix of gibberish, inanities and the bleeding obvious… in a volume just under a yell. They look utterly bored – witlessly so. They do not seem to be enjoying themselves. And appear completely disinterested.
And they annoy the F out of me.
In recent years there has been an explosion in the number (and size) of cruise liners around the world. Also, a lot more are visiting Australian ports, picking up Australian passengers and discharging them with or without viruses.
A lot of cities and other destinations saw the cruise ships bringing in untold tourist dollars. There would have been inducements to get the ships to call for a day or so and no doubt a few bribers were offered and accepted. Now many places are probably regretting they ever heard of cruise ships.
“meher babasays:
Friday, March 27, 2020 at 2:33 pm
Wow: they’re going to take my advice from this morning and start quarantining all arrivals from overseas in hotels in the city of arrival!
You read it here first folks.”
MB – you’re often quite positive about Morrison. Given how you “predicted” this quarantine, I have to ask…..
Are you Scott Morrison?
Blobbit: “MB – you’re often quite positive about Morrison. Given how you “predicted” this quarantine, I have to ask…..Are you Scott Morrison?”
How good is that question?!
meher baba says:
Friday, March 27, 2020 at 2:33 pm
Wow: they’re going to take my advice from this morning and start quarantining all arrivals from overseas in hotels in the city of arrival!
——————————-
In reality it is again too late , should have been done in late January
as the saying goes
The horse has bolted
poroti @ #2967 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 2:26 pm
Very interesting. Thanks, poroti.
That faecal line of transmission is still patent:
She has recovered since leaving hospital in early January, and said she believes she may have become infected via a toilet in the market that she shared with wild meat sellers.
Though the infection could have been facilitated by poor hand hygiene, as opposed to the virus being on the toilet bowl or alive still in faeces that she came in contact with directly.
It seems that they still haven’t figured out who it jumped to from the wild animals though:
While Wei could be “patient zero” from the Huanan Market, the first person in Wuhan to contract the disease remains a mystery.
Scientists expect that finding “patient zero” will help them to trace the source of the virus, generally thought to have jumped to humans from bats.
Simon Katich says: Friday, March 27, 2020 at 2:36 pm
Something happens to these people when they embark on these trips. They turn into mindless, loud zombies. They snail around the place like they are unaware of where they have come from and oblivious to where they are going. They speak in a language that is a mix of gibberish, inanities and the bleeding obvious… in a volume just under a yell. They look utterly bored – witlessly so. They do not seem to be enjoying themselves. And appear completely disinterested.
*******************************************************
Sounds like you have been observing the patrons at my local shopping plaza 🙂
nath
“Honestly. Why someone would enjoy floating around eating frozen food for weeks is beyond me.”
From what I hear, the food is apparently very good. And bottomless. You can eat as much as you want. People do.
But I’ve also heard other passengers can be quite grating. The more you detest them, the more likely you are to bump into them by accident. It’s an uncanny fact of life on a cruise.
If the media was not so corrupt in supporting the liberal/national parties
Questions would be asked
Why is Australia always following other countries that had put in place of body heat detection and other measures for symptoms of the corona virus ,
Australia was too late to close its borders, other countries did this much faster than Australia
Why was there no forced self isolation into hotels before the borders were closed ,why bring it in now when it is too late
“MB says: How good is that question?!”
ARGH!
Runs away screaming
For anyone following the numbers being aggregated, I have noticed fluctuations in historical values. I’m in two minds about whether I should and update what I had previously recorded or not. For example, I noticed the NT count dropped from 8 to 7. There are also occasional inconsistencies in the numbers. For example, right now the Australian total does not equal the sum of the states and territories.
AUSTRALIA 3045
NSW 1405
VIC 574
QLD 493
SA 235
WA 231
TAS 45
NT 7
ACT 53
https://www.covid19data.com.au/
“WA told by Prime Minister to quarantine 800 Australians on cruise ship off coast
By Heather McNeill
Under new direction from Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Western Australia will be responsible for quarantining 800 Australians in limbo off the coast of WA on the Vasco de Gama cruise ship.”
FFS. Are the states actually responsible for border control now? What exactly is a federal government for?
If they are, can we quarantine people for more than 14 days and then deport them?
“Blobbitsays:
Friday, March 27, 2020 at 2:49 pm
FFS. Are the states actually responsible for border control now? What exactly is a federal government for?”
Some nonsense. Just realised that the 800 people are Australians. I guess then doing the quarantine in WA is not so unreasonable.
I’d presume though that after the quarantine period the federal government would assist in getting people back to their home states. Or will they leave that to the state governments to organise as well.
Yay- we are returning to our convict roots as a gathering point for detritus in this case that goes on cruises fully aware they were courting the risk of contracting an infection
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-news-australia-update-live-stage-2-3-lockdown-nsw-victoria-qld-scott-morrison-restrictions-cases-death-toll-covid-19-latest-updates
“Late Risersays:
Friday, March 27, 2020 at 2:49 pm
For anyone following the numbers being aggregated, I have noticed fluctuations in historical values. I’m in two minds about whether I should and update what I had previously recorded or not.”
I think updating depends. For the NT a change from 8 to 7 is big. For the other states, I doubt it makes much difference. I’ve also noticed the numbers on the day move around a bit. They’re usually solid by the end of the day.
WA seems to report mid-afternoon our time. That number seems to be reliable.
meher baba @ #2966 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 1:33 pm
Who says no decision makers read Pollbludger?
LR
There are a few more in the NT (12) and the odd double count
Morrison still trying to hold the line on Schools. Given that statement NSW could be announcing the closing of schools tomorrow
Edit: ADF to take over Border Quarantine. Such a vote of confidence in Dutton.
20% of all covid19 cases in SA are related to the Ruby Princess.
Assuming we’re going to have to live with the virus, and we get it to a manageable state, it makes sense to implement ongoing measures (quarantines) to deal with it. Even if one horse has bolted, there are always future horses to bolt, in that sense.
Even with a lockdown, the government would not be planning for it to be indefinite while waiting for a cure, they would use the time to design and implement measures (social as well as technological: education, standards, better tests, quarantine, tracking, etc) that will allow relaxing the restrictions and as much activity as possible to resume, while managing the spread of the virus or any future outbreaks.
According to my linearised model, NSW predicted (lower 0.9 CI, upper 0.9 CI) for 27/03 was:
1484 (1451,1518)
NSW actual 1405
This is well below the 0.9 forecast lower bound, which is good news.
After updating the model, the NSW forecast for tomorrow is 1705 (166, 1743)
I might have time later today to put together a dynamic model that adjusts the growth rate over time, so we can see how it is changing day to day, rather than using a model that assumes it is fixed.
nath
Honestly. Why someone would enjoy floating around eating frozen food for weeks is beyond me.?
I spent two and a half years on a cruise ship, I had a “very” good time!.
Shellbell @ #2984 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 1:57 pm
Thanks. It’s messy to do your own aggregation and the understandable variability has me using the maximum value reported by three different aggregators at 5pm on any day. So far at least any missed cases have fallen into the next 24 hour period and over-reported cases have “washed out” by then too.
Morrison is really dumping his problem onto NSW and Victoria. Most airlines fly into Sydney or Melbourne. Is this his way of punishing NSW/VIC for defying him on things like school closures?
Morrison is now panicking after the cruise ship fiasco and people arriving at airports being left to go on their merry way. He needs to be brought to account.
citizen
What a larf. After so many years of effing Libs beating their hairy chests about being the Border Security-R-US party they try at a bit of “nuffin to do with us, it’s them over there”
Re the problems of aggregation: the situation isn’t helped by the Tasmanian Dept of Health deciding to report any “Tasmanian” (not a nationality last time I looked) anywhere in Australia as being one of their cases. I think NT might be doing this too. This makes double counting inevitable.
Bloody Morrison is still raving on about “a strong balance sheet and a strong economy”.
Sounds like he has been dragged into helping the tiny South Pacific nations for fear of China stepping in.
VIC predicted (lower, upper 0.9 CIs) for 27/03: 644 (616, 671)
VIC Actuals: 574
Updated VIC prediction for tomorrow: 705 (675,736)
—
QLD predicted (lower, upper 0.9 CIs) for 27/03: 609 (572, 646)
QLD actuals: 555
Updated QLD prediction for tomorrow: 681 (641, 721)
(Edited – dodgy news feed had an number error)
—
My model is consistently forecasting above the actual numbers, which, while professionally embarrassing , is good news, as it indicates a downward shift in growth rates.
citizen
Morality isn’t his strong suite. (There is a card game metaphor buried in there somewhere. I’m thinking of a game called Hearts in polite circles, the one where the idea is to lose every trick while spreading the losses around.)
–MIAMB
I’m hoping the government is increasing its monitoring of Aged care facilities as I’ve just read that Bupa have banned all visitors. I believe Bupa is deemed as “to big to fail ” but they have an appalling accreditation history.
Morrison is the Queen of Spades hopeing to get all the hearts.
Thank you to the person who posted a link to this lengthy article.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/
Testing:
The role of profit in health care:
There is a very simple “reason” the US health care runs at full capacity. Just like airlines (and dare I speculate, cruise ships) full capacity is how you maximise profits. And Just In Time (JIT) systems are set up to maximise profit. Profit driven health care delivers profits.
Not a war:
Yay! It is frustrating to read that a pandemic has to be fought like a war.