In spite of everything, elections will proceed on Saturday in Queensland’s state by-elections for Currumbin and Bundama, together with its local government elections. It appears pre-poll voting has more than doubled since 2016, and postal voting has doubled almost exactly, though I’m hearing anecdotal evidence of applicants who struggled with a floundering website before the deadline last Monday failing to receive their ballots. By my rough reckoning, the proportions in 2016 were 63% ordinary, 23% pre-poll and 14% postal, but should now be at around 18%, 54% and 28%. I will have live results pages in action for the by-elections, but the radical changes in voter behaviour just noted will make it unusually difficult to get an accurate read on the swing.
The Courier-Mail had polls for Currumbin and Bundamba that paint a bleak picture for the Liberal National Party, showing Labor at level pegging in their bid to snare Currumbin, and the LNP crashing to fourth place in Bundamba, where Labor is credited with a 62-38 lead over One Nation. The polls were conducted by uComms last weekend from samples of 700 in each seat — I’m unclear if they were commissioned by the newspaper. Both Currumbin, which covers the Gold Coast at the New South Wales border and has an LNP margin of 3.3%, and Bundamba, covering eastern Ipswich and with a Labor margin of 21.6%, are straightforward four-cornered contests involving Labor, the LNP, the Greens and One Nation. One Nation are directing preferences to the LNP, the Greens to Labor, and the LNP to One Nation. However, the impact of this will be limited as parties are not allowed to distribute how-to-vote cards at polling booths.
The other big story on Saturday is the election for Brisbane City Council, Australia’s biggest, most powerful and most conventionally partisan local government. There will be a direct election for the lord mayoralty and elections for the 26 single-member wards of the council, conducted with optional preferential voting. The Liberal National Party achieved crushing victories in 2016, when Graham Quirk was re-elected as mayor over Labor’s Rod Harding with 59.3% of the two-candidate preferred vote. Quirk retired in March 2019 and was succeeded by Adrian Schrinner, as chosen by the council from among its own number. He had previously been deputy mayor, a prize of the majority party. His Labor opponent is Patrick Condren, a journalist with a high profile as former state political editor for the Seven Network. Reflecting a general impression that current circumstances will favour incumbency, Ladbrokes has Schrinner a clear favourite at $1.22 to Condren’s $3.
The LNP won 19 of the 26 council seats in 2016, with Labor winning only five and the Greens and an independent scoring one apiece. One of the LNP wards, Pullenvale, will be contested by incumbent Kate Richards as an independent after being referred to the Crime and Corruption Commission and dumped as LNP candidate. Another ward, Doboy, was won by the LNP on a 4.3% margin but now credited with a post-redistribution notional margin of 0.3% by Ben Raue at the Tally Room, although Antony Green gives it a tiny LNP margin of 0.03%.
There are nine wards with margins of under 10%, including two, Coorparoo and Paddington, for which the Greens are at least partly hopeful. These wards respectively neighbour the Greens’ existing seat of The Gabba to the north-west and east, the three collectively covering inner-city territory immediately west and south of the central business district. Jonathan Sri holds a solid 7.0% margin over the LNP in The Gabba, but Labor could threaten him if voters defect to them from the LNP.
Labor’s potential gains are further afield: Northgate (1.7%), The Gap (4.5%), Enoggera (5.6%) and Marchant (7.6%) in the north of Brisbane, and Holland Park (4.1%) and Runcorn (8.7%) in the south. A roughie might be the CBD ward of Central, which the LNP holds with a margin of 8.2% over Labor, but the Greens were within striking distance of second place last time. Former LNP independent Nicole Johnston looks secure in Tennyson, but it’s anyone’s guess how Richard might go in Pullenvale.
The state’s other councils do not have declared party alignments, but they are often present if you know where to look. Outer Brisbane and the coastal sprawl to its north and south are covered by (in descending order of population) the cities of Gold Coast, Moreton Bay (think Dickson, Longman, northern Petrie), Sunshine Coast, Logan (most of Moreton and northern Forde, plus some low-density hinterland from Wright), Ipswich and Redland (which perfectly corresponds with Bowman), with Toowoomba, Townsville and Cairns being the largest municipalities regionally. The first five of these are usefully explained by Ben Raue and guest Alexis Pink at The Tally Room.
Please note that this thread is for discussion of the Queensland state by-elections and council elections – the “main” thread is here.
Hi,
I voted in the BCC election by prepoll last Sunday, at the Mansfield industrial estate. There were very few people around at the time, I was straight in and out.
I think the proportion of those voting on Saturday may well be less than 18% because of a high non participant rate.
I wouldn’t expect much change overall to the make up of the BCC
On a local note, Kate Richardson has got her name in front of voters by organising “household help”for people stuck at home and needing assistance during the c19 crisis. We received a letterbox drop to that effect. She also has a decent presence in the local shopping mall. I consider her the “dark horse” in this race. If she wins there will be a little more heat in the council.
Late Riser,
I take it you mean Kate Richards the current rep for Pullenvale ward?
If so, maybe some ALP / Greens voters might vote strategically, or preference her, if her ow vote is big enough to stay in at each distribution?
> One Nation are directing preferences to the LNP, the Greens to Labor, and the LNP to One Nation. However, the impact of this will be limited as parties are not allowed to distribute how-to-vote cards at polling booths.
Would those preferencing recommendations be the same as last time? If so, they possibly may form a test of the impact of handing out HtV vs just relying on inclinations & reporting.
Fargo61 @ #4 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 4:39 pm
Oops. Yes I do.
Re the voting, my guess is left leaners will put her 3rd, with ALP and GRN taking 1 or 2. There is a strong GRN lean in this part of the world. One popular road that I drive along has nothing but green placards. And the Greens candidate is the only one I have seen door knocking. By himself I might add.
@Late Riser
I actually know people who have put her above ALP. The ALP has run a quite bad campaign for Pullenvale.
Catprog @ #7 Saturday, March 28th, 2020 – 7:55 am
I haven’t noticed any ALP corflute in my corner. Is that called “running dead”? The ALP candidate, Mark (that’s his last name), is practically unknown. Richards has painted herself as tough, hardworking, hard done by, and local. Druckmann (Greens) is more of an idealist but I think he might have a chance among the confusion surrounding Aldermann (LNP) and Richards (ex-LNP). I’ll be watching Antony Green tonight.
After reading the piece about Tom Tate, Crook…I mean Mayor, of the Gold Coast I really hope that the voters will wake up and get rid of this utter blight on the landscape. I’m not holding my breath however.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/50-blatant-lies-and-broken-promises-by-gold-coast-mayor-tom-tate,13736
I reckon there could be a significant split in the number of voters that stay away on polling day. Do those that don’t believe in experts mostly favour One Nation? Expect them to win big in polling day booths.
Probably a similar result for the Brisbane Mayor and his motley crew.
Today I’m finding it hard to believe in the expertise of the State Government.
Voted first thing this morning in Morningside. Oddly most people in there seemed be going for the absentee line. There was an ecq worker making sure everyone was standing far enough apart, but in pretty good humour. Didn’t see any htvs anywhere other than an LNP banner being put up. Staff were slightly disorganised, there was one guy whos job it was to sanitise pencils in between voters.
I am getting right annoyed with my Lord Mayor. I just now received yet another SMS regarding the annoying little insert. This is the third SMS on top of two voice mails.
Each time it has been from a different mobile number. These are they. Since I am receiving them unsolicited they must be in the public domain and it is OK to publish them. (And how did they get my number??)
+61 490 415 668
+61 490 359 549
+61 490 355 328
+61 451 079 686
+61 405 749 574
This is the most recent SMS.
Simon @ #5 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 6:29 pm
Last election the Greens did not recommend any preferences as I remember it. Labor lost a lot of wards because of exhausted Green votes.
The ALP candidate in Pullenvale was in my son’s class at school. He is studying political science at QLD Uni. Very nice family. Probably not much support from ALP as he is not a union official wannabe politician. Yeah like Jane Prentice before her Kate was dumped in a very nasty but characteristic Lieberal manoeuvre by the local grubs involving the state corruption committee which has recently cleared her completely. My man the Greens Charles is a town planner and way too intelligent and qualified to be a Polly but hope he gets there. I was lucky enough to get to tell the liberal candidate to “piss off” when he swarmed me at pre poll as I was entering to vote last week
ICANCU, thanks for that. I met Charles Druckmann at my home when he was doing door knocks and I was deep in dirt and covered in sweat. I wish I had been better prepared to talk with him. He seemed a pleasant genuine fellow.
LR .. interestingly Charles just scraped in from a tied vote as candidate but his manner and enthusiasm has united the local Greens branch behind him. There is good feeling out here amongst the Greens and hopefully we pull over more than a few liberal votes. But after the last federal election I now fear the worst possible result for humankind – a liberal victory.
LR, I got a recorded voice message on the landline from that same 0405 749 574 number. He just had time to say “Hello this is your Lord Mayor Adrian Schinner” before I uttered a few choice words and hung up. I know perfectly well that one’s choice words are not going to be heard by a human at the other end, but I really felt I had to say them.
Wow, The Greens’ boosters here really do express an almost visceral hatred of Unions. Sad.
Do Queenslanders think this will be a good test of the waters for the Palacsjuk government later in the year?
C@tmomma @ #19 Saturday, March 28th, 2020 – 6:53 pm
No. But judging by the SMS messages (and voice mail) the LNP appears to. This is not your usual election. Palaszczuk is fine. Incumbent during a crisis. Queensland is two states in one. Balance.
Very thin figures so far apart from Mayor. My gut feeling after looking at all figures is the Greens are doing pretty well and the LNP not so well. Result might depend on how many Greens fill in the preference boxes and how tightly they flow to Labor