The fortnightly Essential Research poll focuses, naturally enough, on coronavirus, with 45% rating the federal government’s response good or very good, and 29% poor or very poor. According to The Guardian’s report, it would seem the latter tend to be those most worried about the virus, as measured by a question on whether respondents felt the situation was being overblown, with which “one third” agreed while 28% thought the opposite.
Over the course of three fortnightly polls, the proportion rating themselves very concerned has escalated from 25% to 27% to 39%, while the results for quite concerned have gone from 43% to 36% and back again. The Guardian’s report does not relate the latest results for “not that concerned” and “not at all concerned”, which were actually up in the last poll, from 26% to 28% and 6% to 9% respectively. Further questions relate to trust in various sources of information, notably the government and the media, but we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today to get a clear handle on them. Suffice to say that Essential still has nothing to tell us on voting intention.
In other findings, 49% said they wanted the opposition to fall in behind the government’s decisions while 33% preferred that it review and challenge them, and 42% now consider themselves likely to catch the virus, up from 31% on a fortnight ago. Seventy-two per cent reported washing their hands more often, 60% said they were avoiding social gatherings, and 33% reported stocking up on groceries.
We also have a Roy Morgan SMS survey of 723 respondents, which was both conducted and published yesterday, showing 79% support for the government’s decision to allow those in financial difficulty to access $20,000 of their superannuation. As noted in the previous post, an earlier such poll of 974 respondents from Wednesday and Thursday recorded levels of trust in various Australian politicians (plus Jacinda Ardern, who fared best of all); a further set of results from the same poll finds Dick Smith, Mike Cannon-Brookes, Andrew Forrest and Alan Joyce rating best out of designated list of business leaders, with Rupert Murdoch, Clive Palmer, Gina Rinehart and Gerry Harvey performed worst. We are yet to receive hard numbers from either set of questions, but they are apparently forthcoming.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.
BB still having a distraction rant?
Stop being so fixated on a issue
One way or another the answer will be bigly important.
……………………………………………………………………………………
Can you catch the coronavirus twice? We don’t know yet
We don’t have enough evidence yet to know if recovering from covid-19 induces immunity, or whether any immunity would give long-lasting protection against the coronavirus
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532754-600-can-you-catch-the-coronavirus-twice-we-dont-know-yet/#ixzz6HqgZJZJB
ar: “Well that was abrupt. Change in sharemarket direction, I mean.”
It happened immediately after US stock futures dipped. That will do it almost every time.
Australian share market speculators are not prone to much in the way of original thought.
Morrison’s world is sinking fast…
A multimillion dollar circumnavigation of Australia by a replica of Captain James Cook’s ship Endeavour to mark the 250th anniversary of his arrival has been suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the project in 2019 and it was due to launch in Sydney’s Botany Bay in April, with the replica Endeavour then sailing up the east coast before making a circumnavigation of the continent.
The Federal Government gave $6.7 million to the Australian National Maritime Museum for the project, which has been criticised by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander groups for celebrating the dispossession of their land and by academics for being historically inaccurate.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/captain-cook-250th-anniversary-voyage-suspended-due-to-coronavirus
a r @ #2889 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 12:16 pm
Yep.
Its *interesting*
As of last Friday the Nasdaq 100 index has just 6.8% of stocks above their individual 10 moving average price. As of COB yesterday in the US 97.1% of that group are above their 10 MA.
SO…Shares of companies that were regarded as expensive 5 weeks ago and may well go out of business soon and have told stockmarkets they have “no visibility on future earnings”, in fact have next to no earnings atm and have sacked thousands of staff……. have in the last 3 days seen their share prices soaring…..
Fed or no Fed – I’m staying in cash.
Dandy,
The “wait for things to get observably worse” approach is essentially advocating a stabilisation of behaviour (at least until we’re forced to act).
Hospitalisations and ICU’s have been well below % expectations (I remember 20%/5%) as well based on figures emanating from Vic and NSW Health.
How might that be explained? One explanation is the second week of symptoms is worse than the first.
How might that be explained? One explanation is the second week of symptoms is worse than the first.
Earlier diagnosis of the disease. Prepare for a surge soon enough.
Shellbell
I saw a link earlier mentioning the surprisingly high % of cases among a younger demographic. So that would help lower the rate. Perhaps Australia’s “oldies” have been more observant of the new “rules” than we think. That or many elderly Australians’ lives were quite isolated to begin with, unlike the Italians say.
“Earlier diagnosis of the disease. Prepare for a surge soon enough.”
Or that we’re picking up a relatively high proportion of cases – the other values based on a higher ratio of undiagnosed cases.
Time to head out, the self appointed fixated thought police are back.
deleted
upload error
“Harvey calls for immediate pause on bills, $1000 hardship payments”
WA libs going full socialist.
poroti
That or many elderly Australians’ lives were quite isolated to begin with, unlike the Italians say.
———-
A very astute observation. I know i lead a very solitary life. Shopping is almost the only time i interact.
shellbell: “How might that be explained? One explanation is the second week of symptoms is worse than the first.”
Perhaps. If so, we’ll soon find out.
I think that another part of the explanation is that health departments were basing their assumptions on worst case scenarios derived from the experience of European countries. But, as we know, the stats on percentages of cases requiring hospitalisation in many of these countries is highly unreliable.
Many experts maintain that Korea has set the gold standard for testing its population, and it has been running consistently at 1-2 per cent of all cases being either critical and/or leading to a death. Given that Korea has a relatively healthy population, I suspect that the true global average for critical cases is around 3-4 per cent of all presentations.
In the case of Italy, this would mean that the true spread of the virus among the community is probably around 300-400,000 cases, rather than the 80,000 or so being reported. And I suspect that’s probably right.
According to this logic, Australia, having arguably a healthier population than Italy, would perhaps have no more than 2 per cent critical cases. And, as far as I know (the stats are still a bit patchy), that’s about where we currently are at.
Trying again. An update from the States
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6qFG0uop9k
poroti @ #2907 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 11:46 am
The highest rate of cases per 100,000 is for those in their 60s. The highest number of cases are for those in their 20s.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704
Yes that too Blobbit.
You are clearly an optimist!
“Dandy Murraysays:
Friday, March 27, 2020 at 12:59 pm
Yes that too Blobbit.
You are clearly an optimist!”
Oddly not – I’m usually the miserable bastard at work.
More likely I’m a pessimist, clutching at straws.
Rakali @ #2912 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 11:51 am
Perhaps a higher proportion of elderly in Australia can afford to live indepenently on their pension?
The “do nothing until it’s appreciably worse” group advocated that the states follow the federal government’s plan of doing nothing, criticised them as being hysterical, panicking and moving too early, and are now using the easing in the graphs (due to the state’s actions) as evidence that the federal government’s approach is working. Nevermind that their initial reaction was to heavily criticise the states for forcing the federal government into action.
Of course, they are once again advocating doing nothing more.
Now for something completely different (somewhat politics-related)…. I don’t know if anyone caught the latest ep of ‘You Can’t Ask That” (the one about nudists/naturists). One of the people featured is a former Liberal staffer who worked for the Bailleau/Napthine governments until 2014. Since she left politics she has a much bigger media profile.
We have had a much higher testing regimen than most countries. our incidence figures are probably a truer measure of actual cases. Deaths will be a more accurate comparitive metric.
I can’t find it now but there is an interesting graph on the net showing doubling time for deaths per nation.
It’s Time: “The highest rate of cases per 100,000 is for those in their 60s. The highest number of cases are for those in their 20s.”
Well, with the majority of Australian infections being acquired overseas, this might reflect a greater propensity for people in their 20s (no kids) and 60s (kids grown up/recently retired) to undertake international travel.
Astrobleme and the gang coming out with all the standard Inquisitorial tropes:
● No need to respond to a defence, because – why bother? – you know the person is guilty,
● You have to be of low intelligence not to understand their position, so they just repeat it – again without any facts – again and again,
● To respond to their obsessive taunts of racism is itself obsessive (presumably you should just accept it),
● Not being or thinking you’re racist is pretty much conclusive proof you are (these are the saddest kinds),
● the definition of “racism” is whatever they say it is.
This technique can be applied to anything, from accusations of being a “Coal Hugger” (remember them), alleged homophobia, pedophilia, being a secret agent working for Menzies House or being a mindless ALP apparatchik, to being a “Lib-kin”, or a Same-Same.
Nothing escapes judgement.
The boats….
NSW has released some more data as part of its daily Covid-19 updates. The number of infections connected to cruise ships is up again. Remember, the total number of known infections in the state is currently 1405. Here is what we know:
There are now 162 confirmed cases diagnosed in NSW who were on board the Ruby Princess. That’s up 41 from yesterday.
There are 41 confirmed cases from the Ovation of the Seas.
BB
“the definition of “racism” is whatever they say it is.”
Genuinely curious as to what you think racism is…
Do you have a definition you work off?
Coronavirus community transmissions nearly double in Victoria as Melbourne’s Stonnington area tops hotspot list
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-27/coronavirus-covid19-cases-victoria-community-transmission-rises/12095892
Interesting report from the 9News ongoing blog
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-australian-covid-19-cases-set-to-pass-3000-as-worldwide-fatalities-climb-beyond-22-000-20200326-p54ed7.html
“Construction union boss John Setka hopes worksites will not be shut down by stricter coronavirus lockdown restrictions.
Commercial construction sites remain open under ‘stage two’ rules. Yesterday, a worker on a Melbourne University site tested positive, forcing the site to shut.
Mr Setka, secretary of the Victorian construction division of the CFMMEU, said precautions in place on construction sites were sufficient to keep workers safe and a full shutdown was not required.”
In the normal course of events, you would expect Daniel Andrews to pay some attention to this plea. But, given that National Cabinet is currently meeting and might end with an announcement of Stage 3 in Victoria and NSW (and possibly nationally), Setka may have left his run a little too late.
Rakali
So have definitely been , as the say, ahead of the curve 🙂
I have vivid memories of the right-wing commentariat proclaiming, post Global Financial Crisis, that because the impact on Australia was so small, all the doom and gloom must have been just scaremongering and the stimulus package was a waste of money.
Expect the same logic to be applied to the lockdowns, should we come through the COVID-19 crisis relatively unscathed.
Bushfire Bill @ #2923 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 1:10 pm
The definition of racism is fairly clear – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racism
I don’t think many people would disagree with this definition. But it may perhaps be worth highlighting this bit, which is more prevalent than people might think …
Perhaps Mr Setka should put up “CFMMEU Hair Salon” signs on work sites, get the Feds onboard.
sprocket_
I believe that at least 30 of the 47 cases in Tasmania come from one of the Ruby Princess, the Ovation of the Seas and another ship called Celebrity Solstice.
I wonder what the nation-wide figures for cases from these vessels might be? Perhaps 400 or more?
According to this logic, Australia, having arguably a healthier population than Italy
I’d argue with this.
Australia has a woeful rate of alcohol consumption. Italy tends to do its drinking with meals.
Italy has the Mediterranean Diet. Australia has the Maccas Diet.
Australia has one of the highest rates of Morbid Obesity in the world after America.
“Ante Meridiansays:
Friday, March 27, 2020 at 1:21 pm
I have vivid memories of the right-wing commentariat proclaiming, post Global Financial Crisis, that because the impact on Australia was so small, all the doom and gloom must have been just scaremongering and the stimulus package was a waste of money.”
No, this time the message will be either:
1. things go well – look at how well Morrison managed the issue. The stimulus was just right, and he did well to resist the more alarmist calls
2. things go badly – look at how well Morrison managed the issue. The states, particularly the Labor states didn’t do enough with their health systems. The support package was based on them being competent in their response. There was no way Morrison could have known they would screw it up so badly
The Guardian re NSW and cruise ships
NSW has released more data as part of its daily Covid-19 updates. The number of infections connected to cruise ships is up again. Remember, the total number of known infections in the state is 1,405. Here is what we know:
There are 162 confirmed cases diagnosed in NSW who were on board the Ruby Princess, up 41 from yesterday.
There are 41 confirmed cases from the Ovation of the Seas.
AM
Agreed.
The problem for them. Science works.
They will be too busy trying to save their excuses for business not to have to pay their way due to the economic collapse to argue with science.
This could be a good thing for the planet as the argument against science failing means real action on the climate crisis too. It’s hard to argue Greenies want to make you socialist when you have just been doing socialism big time.
poroti @ #2901 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 12:31 pm
The answer is in, and it is ‘yes’.
China are finding that people who have ‘Recovered’ from COVID-19 are coming down with it a second time.
“Australia has a woeful rate of alcohol consumption. Italy tends to do its drinking with meals.”
Yeah, nah.
Looking at the WHO data, Italy is a bit worse than Australia for alcohol related issues, at least in terms of cirrhosis and cancer related to alcohol.
https://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/profiles/ita.pdf
https://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/profiles/aus.pdf
Saying that, the rate of alcohol consumption in Italy has been dropping significantly – so I guess there are a lot of older people who used to drink way more.
Smoking is also much worse there.
C@t
Although I would add that Italians have higher rates of smokers.
Blobbit
Snap
The Great Bushfire Bill. Preparing for her role of a lifetime in: A Martyr for Political Porrectness.
Victoria @ #2942 Friday, March 27th, 2020 – 1:32 pm
Yes, I forgot that. Though it wasn’t as high as some countries either.
C@t,
I’d argue that the central coast is not a representative sample of the culinary habits of the rest of the country.
nath – you really can be a nasty piece of work
nath, been watching Dirty Money thanks to your heads up … VW and Wells Fargo !
Princess Cruises seem to have taken a few leaves out of the VW book wrt their pollution obligations, and I don’t mean human, although one could it seems.
nath, clocking on for work at PB:
Cheers Itza. It’s a sobering doco. Probably the saddest to me was the Guardian scam. It got me pretty angry.
poroti
Hmm. Thought for the day.
I suspect there’s a bit in that. But as a counter I have to say that in the Naturally Occurring Retirement Community (NORC) where I live the local (smallish) mall typically has crowds of eager oldies making a din over a hot beverage and baked good things whenever I venture to shop. In my mind some bear a striking similarity to the barbarian character in Terry Pratchett’s books, and I hope one day to achieve their sanguine outlook on toughness. But on today’s trip to the shops I saw none of them. Not a single solitary one. The place was deserted.
The other interesting behavioural change was that the people behind the counter were clearly nervous. At Coles I had to bag my own groceries, and the person next in line was told by my checker, and in no uncertain terms, to keep his distance. I told her that she and her colleagues were heroes. I was rewarded by a thin smile and the explanation that she didn’t want to be there as she had a 9 month old at home and was living with her parents. But she needed the work.