I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of coronavirus for the electoral process. For what it’s worth, the New York Times today reports that research finds no evidence that elections act as vectors for disease. Apropos next Saturday’s local government elections and state by-elections in Queensland, my article had this to say:
According to Graeme Orr, University of Queensland law professor and a noted authority on electoral law, it is still within the power of Local Government Minister Stirling Hinchliffe to postpone the council elections. The byelections for the state seats of Currumbin and Bundamba could also theoretically be called off if the speaker rescinded the writs. Since a state election will be held in October in any case, it might well be argued that filling the latter vacancies for a few months is not worth the bother. However, the official position is that neither pre-poll nor election day booths will experience activity amounting to a gathering of more than 500 people, as per the latest advice of the chief medical officer — advice that will surely be showing its age well before next Saturday.
In other by-election news, the Liberal National Party has put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards in Currumbin and Bundamba, and thus behind One Nation, a move that has evidently lost its taboo since the issue of One Nation preferences tore the state’s Coalition parties apart around the turn of the century. This could potentially be consequential in Bundamba, where it is conceivable that One Nation could outpoll the LNP and defeat Labor with their preferences.
Elsewhere:
• The Federal Court has dismissed a Section 44 challenge against Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s eligibility to sit in parliament on grounds of dual Hungarian citizenship, to which he was allegedly entitled via his Hungarian-born mother. The petitioner, Michael Staindl, initially pointed to Australian documentation suggesting her family arrived in Australia in 1950 with Hungarian passports, having fled the country the previous year as the post-war communist regime tightened its grip. However, it was established that this arose from loose definitions used at the time by the Australian authorities, and that what the family actually had was “a form of single use emigrant exit passport”. This led Staindl to twice reformulate his argument, eventually settling on the contention that Frydenberg’s mother was left with the “shell” of a citizenship that had been emptied only by the communist regime’s arbitrary and capricious “pseudo-law”, a factor that ceased to apply with its demise in 1989. This did not impress the court, which dismissed the petition and ordered Staindl to pay costs.
• The Age/Herald has polling results from Newgate Research on which aspects of coronavirus are of greatest public concern. The results are reasonably consistent across the board, but top of the list is “the overall economic impact”, with which 41% express themselves extremely concerned, 36% quite concerned, 19% slightly concerned and 4% not at all concerned. “Regular health services not being available” produces similar results of 35%, 32%, 25% and 8%. There are slightly more moderate results for other questions on health impacts and “shortages of food, toilet paper and other essentials”, although in all cases the combination for extremely concerned and quite concerned is well above 50%. The poll is an “online tracking study of more than 1000 Australians, taken between Wednesday and Saturday last week”.
• The West Australian ($) also has a WA-only coronavirus poll, which finds 66% supporting cancellation of large sporting events, 45% for night venues, 35% for cinemas and theatres, 34% for gyms and leisure centres, 29% for schools, 28% for universities, 22% for shopping centres and 16% apiece for restaurants and cafes and public transport. Fifty-one per cent of respondents agreed the government had been fully open and honest about the risks and implications of the virus, with 25% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 890.
• The count for the Northern Territory’s Johnston by-election was finalised on Friday, with Labor’s Joel Bowden winning at the final count over Steven Klose of the Territory Alliance by 1731 votes (52.6%) to (47.4%), in the absence of any surprises in the full preference count. With no candidate polling more than 29.9% on the primary vote, the latter was always an abstract possibility, but the result after the previous exclusion was not particularly close, with Bowden on 1275 (38.7%), Klose on 1110 (33.7%) and Greens candidate Aiya Goodrich Carttling on 907 (27.6%). It seems unlikely that preferences would have favoured the Greens even if it had been otherwise. My live results facility now records the final numbers – there will be more where this came from on this site with the Queensland elections on Saturday week, certainly with the state by-elections, and perhaps also for the Brisbane City Council elections, depending on how things go.
Note also two new posts below this one, one dealing with a new poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, the other being Adrian Beaumont’s latest contribution on the Democratic primaries in the United States.
In China, only one member of the household was allowed to go out every 3 days to buy food.
7-10 days does seem to be about right for the lock down. Interesting Australia’s level of infections today is higher than when the Chinese shut Hubei.
Phil Wright
@dreamrealities
1h
Let me just put this photo from yesterday right here for a hypocrite to see.
Crunch time re sending kids to school has happened early in our household. My husband and I live with our son and his family. The grandkids go to the local primary school where social distancing includes 24 four year olds dancing together on a small mat (literally standing room only), sit at tables elbow to elbow and all classroom resources are shared. The older child’s class has all the desks crammed together to allow a third of the space for a dedicated reading area and a third for practical and craft active ties. We live in a small community just outside Perth, last night we heard of three local households going into self isolation.
My general feeling is resigned, both my husband and I fit the at risk category and I don’t feel the government is prioritising health over economy in all their decisions. There are also some decisions that seem to contradict other decisions. Why are schools remaining open, based on kids don’t get the virus or transmit it but kids can’t visit nursing homes.
I’m getting ready to sally forth to my local supermarket/s. I will report back when I return. Last Sunday night it resembled the aftermath of a plague of locusts.
Let’s conscript the former Chief Scientist Ian Chubb into a key C-19 role. He has a bit of mongrel in him and does not suffer fools gladly.
E. G. Theodore @ #3005 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 5:08 pm
A reasonable approach.
Can’t see it actually happening.
Like Trump, our government uses a much simpler “two step” approach …
Step 1 – deny there is a problem, and do nothing;
Step 2 – panic, lie about step 1, and then deny all responsibility.
Vic emergency just in ( have it for bushfires).
If unwell self isolate
etc.
wash hands paper towel or hand dryer.
try not to tough eyes etc.
Cover when your sneezing.
No shaking hands
Avoid crowds
This was the first press release from Turtle Bowen about Covid. Only 20 days ago. I think its telling as to how quickly the reaction has escalated.
From memory some on PB declared Morrison was grandstanding when he activated the pandemic plan on 28 Feb.
https://www.chrisbowen.net/media-releases/?page=2
Now the NT is “doing a Tassie” and managing its borders.
If anyone should be locked up it’s whoever decided to give an exemption to the Ruby Princess passengers. NSW Health should hang it’s collective head in shame over that decision. Totally unforgivable.
Got this email from a local club I belong to:
”Dear Steve777
Keep Your Distance But Don’t Stay Away.
We fully support the government’s directives for people to comply with the social distancing of 1.5 metres. We have adapted our venue to comply with the new venue capacity restrictions.
We are following strict hygiene and other guidelines around suppressing the spread of COVID-19
BUT, we need your business to save our business!
We welcome your patronage within social distancing and self-isolation guidelines.
Please call in for a meal, a drink or some company!”
I won’t be back until all this is over, being over 65 with two chronic conditions.
I expect that pubs and clubs will be ordered to close next week or the week after.
Any chance we can get a few hundred thousand PLA soldiers to enforce the lockdown?
The NSW Government building temporary hospitals a la the Chinese in response to a Twitter storm would not be wise, in part because they would probably fall down and entomb the occupants.
More importantly, State Governments (presumably including NSW) are reactivating recently closed former hospitals. This is much wiser as they have a track record of not falling down, and are at least to some extent arranged as hospitals (to support workflow etc).
Furthermore, no-one (including the Chinese) can build hospitals to match an exponential load. It can only ever be a tactical measure to address localised shostfalls. Australia does actually have a strategic advantage (which the Chinese lack) in terms of the fat in the private sector hospitals providing capacity above normal load.
Virtue signalling seems to have been replaced by a new strain wherein the polymaths of social media are now compelled to inflict their universal expertise on everyone. The volume remains stuck at 11.
lizzie
Oops sorry accidenrally misread something
Was actually responding to Boerwars post.
nath
Give Adolph Kipfler a call. He would be keen as mustard to get Hoarder Force droogs out ‘enforcing’ .Something to really get his inner Queensland plod heart racing.
Afternoon all. Like others here I think Australia should now go into lockdown ASAP. This little video of Italians reflecting on their situation ten days earlier gives us the real message, as Dr Swann, the WHO guy who dealt with Ebola, and other experienced epidemiologists have all said so far – don’t delay!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMY0-4p9P-M
The nation’s political leader has given a clear direction, and it is now up to all of us to follow De Facto Prime Minister (DFPM) Kevin Andrew’s advice.
Scomo? He does warm and cuddly acts for a living. As the bushfires showed, he does not do the “making difficult decisions” bit of leadership. The only “difficult” decision he has done so far was not difficult – a stimulus is popular. But it was difficult for him, because it meant admitting his policy was wrong.
There was a comment earlier (Lars?) that no government would ignore medical advice. Rubbish! They ignored medical advice over Nauru and Manus Island even though people died. They ignored fire commissioners advice even though people died. Under Howard they ignored intelligence advice to invade Iraq even though people died. (Ask Wilkie.)
We have seen a string of exceptions to Covid19 protocols for League games, Chinese students and four cruise ships, all of which could have spread the virus. I doubt they followed relevant medical advice either. Scomo would airlift his mother into northern Italy if it suited him, regardless of advice.
poroti says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 6:00 pm
nath
Give Adolph Kipfler a call. He would be keen as mustard to get Hoarder Force droogs out ‘enforcing’
__________________
Bah! a handful of enthusiastic amateurs. We need the real deal!
Cud
Thank goodness. I thought I’d written something rude!!
Cud
I read your overnight posts on your family, and wish you all the best in coping with it all.
Aqualung @ #3054 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 5:43 pm
Saturday arvo is not an ideal time IMO, tuesday/ wednesday morning is far better, but many have to work then.
Next week I’ll be keeping supplies topped up, a lockdown soon, felt it with BW’s report on Gladys on the south coast NSW last week.
We have laid in a good stock of palliative care supplies.
Mostly Shiraz.
Just went to Nobbys Beach (Newcastle). Had a good swim and caught some waves. Beautiful weather. Had to get my mum to drive me to avoid public transport.
Was unsure about the surf conditions so I asked a lifeguard “is it safe”. The answer I got was “if you practice social distancing”. There’s plenty of room so no stress.
Crowd a bit down. Seemed to divide evenly between those who are obviously distancing and those who clearly haven’t got the message.
lizzie
He should take his hindsight up with Shellbell who has been running Bludger interference on his behalf.
The Northern Territory government says anyone entering the state “by road, rail, air and sea” after 4pm on Tuesday 24 March will have to self-isolate for 14 days.
There will be some exemptions to the quarantine period for health and emergency services, defence and policing, flight crews and freight “with strict guidelines in place to monitor and manage this”.
Thanks lizzie
I’m going to have some chlorine soaked towels handy.
Boerwar
Health Minister saying “with hindsight” is admitting faulty judgement. Not very confidence building.
lizzie
I don’t mind, actually. We all fuck up. Hazzard admitting it helps, IMO.
Our local member Allysa Hayden is on social media encouraging us to support local workers by going to the local coffee shop for a catchup and visiting the local Chinese restaurant for a meal.
No amount of cleaning, hand washing and limited shopping trips with social distancing is going to work while people are being encouraged to mingle. This is especially relevant when our government continues to let potentially infected people into the community and hasn’t undertaken widespread testing to ascertain who is and isn’t infected.
We sat out on the deck for dinner this evening. Classic autumn evening. Hint of crispness. Clear skies. Still some latent warmth about. Beautiful dinner. Desultory but pleasant conversation with OH.
I squashed a mosquito, smearing some of my blood on the back of my hand as I did so.
Momentary frisson of alarm.
Aha. Wrong virus. Wrong epidemic. Wrong place.
No need to worry at all.
The Australian reporting that 158 passengers on the Ruby Princess were sick, 13 had high fevers, four had coronavirus and they let 3000 passengers disembark telling them to “self-isolate”. It beggars belief that some people still cling to the idea the government knows what it is doing and is getting the response right.
‘Diogenes says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 6:19 pm
The Australian reporting that 158 passengers on the Ruby Princess were sick, 13 had high fevers, four had coronavirus and they let 3000 passengers disembark telling them to “self-isolate”. It beggars belief that some people still cling to the idea the government knows what it is doing and is getting the response right.’
She’ll be right. Dutton of the Border Farce is getting tough on hoarders.
Come to think of that, how IS he going with sooling the AFP onto the bad guys?
With hindsight the Australian electors will wish they had made a different decision last year.
So basically we need our doubling rate for infection to get 6 days not the current 3-4 to minimise the health system impact. Ideally we want to reach 2000 infections by next Friday – if we reach 2000 by say Tuesday or Wednesday the Government will have to increase the severity of suppression measures.
Rakali
No, if they trusted Morrison, they don’t believe Labor would have done any better.
socrates, thank you. A touching video. Tears even. Three of the people stood out, but all were good.
“You suck at playing guitar.” Made me smile.
“We should always be light in spirit, but not in our gestures.” Made me reassess myself.
“You’ll realise that even just being able to breathe the air in your own house is something you should already be grateful for.” Made me grateful.
“You’ll live moments of unity you would’ve never imagined like yesterday when we all got out on our balconies and the whole neighbourhood started singing. Everyone was singing their own song, but somehow we were all one thing.” Made me stop.
Rakali @ #3083 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 5:21 pm
You are an optimist. (I am too.)
Vale Kenny Rogers
https://youtu.be/kn481KcjvMo
Diogenes @ #3081 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 6:19 pm
Diogenes, I’m going on my memory (can’t remember where I read it), the 158 sick, 13 high fevers occurred on the previous voyage of Ruby Princess that finished on 8 March – they shoved that lot off, restocked with people and did the final voyage to NZ.
BW
I think it’s time to close borders with NSW. I’ve heard that is going to happen very soon in SA. SA hospitals are now banning doctors from going there or forcing them to “self-isolate” (ie infect their family who then infect everyone else) for two weeks.
Did Kenny beat the Virus or was it C19 that did for him?
Go Swannies
Boerwar
Has reminded me. I’ve been pretty dry this year. I may go and get some wines …. just to have on standby for medicinal purposes 🙂
Taz
The Australian still hasn’t dropped it’s paywall for coronavirus, unlike every other national paper so it’s hard to find out.
Murdoch is going to be a bastard to the end.
Taz @ #3089 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 6:28 pm
Guardian blog
‘The Australian newspaper is reporting that the Ruby Princess cruise ship that docked in Sydney on Thursday with four confirmed cases of people with Covid-19 on board had “had previously been sailing with 158 sick passengers on board”.
The newspaper reports those 158 passengers, of which 13 had high temperatures, had disembarked in Sydney on March 8 before the ship left for a short cruise around New Zealand.
Although the government has banned cruise ship arrivals, an exception was made for the Ruby Princess which docked in Sydney on Thursday…..’
BW Natural causes being reported, was 81.
Diogenes @ #3094 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 6:31 pm
Yep.
Cud Chewer – with a thanks to Lizzie for the reminder.
I read your posts last night and I do believe you have had a word or two to say previously about the family situation.
Not a lot I can help with except – we keep on keeping on. A good rant and a good listener is a boon.
and as well as that — a repeat of one of your posts that became a favourite of mine
‘Diogenes says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 6:28 pm
BW
I think it’s time to close borders with NSW. I’ve heard that is going to happen very soon in SA. SA hospitals are now banning doctors from going there or forcing them to “self-isolate” (ie infect their family who then infect everyone else) for two weeks.’
Yep.
The ACT has nine cases, all but one of whom were recent o/s returnees. The exception was infected in NSW. The local tracking and testing has been good, from what I can gather, and while it is moot whether community transmissions has commenced in the ACT, I doubt it that they have. Nevertheless OH and self have commenced behaving as if community transmission HAS started.
It would definitely be in our health interests to keep everyone out of the ACT except for trucks bringing in our vittles and such like.
The main immediate trouble is that there is a plague of pollies due this week. Given that pollies are outperforming on infections I presume that they and their staffs will be bringing more infections into the ACT.
Anything for a buck.
Shades of…the Capitalists will sell us the rope that we hang them with…