Democracy in the time of COVID-19

Queensland council elections and state by-elections to proceed in spite of everything; two polls on attitudes to coronavirus; and Josh Frydenberg off the Section 44 hook.

I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of coronavirus for the electoral process. For what it’s worth, the New York Times today reports that research finds no evidence that elections act as vectors for disease. Apropos next Saturday’s local government elections and state by-elections in Queensland, my article had this to say:

According to Graeme Orr, University of Queensland law professor and a noted authority on electoral law, it is still within the power of Local Government Minister Stirling Hinchliffe to postpone the council elections. The byelections for the state seats of Currumbin and Bundamba could also theoretically be called off if the speaker rescinded the writs. Since a state election will be held in October in any case, it might well be argued that filling the latter vacancies for a few months is not worth the bother. However, the official position is that neither pre-poll nor election day booths will experience activity amounting to a gathering of more than 500 people, as per the latest advice of the chief medical officer — advice that will surely be showing its age well before next Saturday.

In other by-election news, the Liberal National Party has put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards in Currumbin and Bundamba, and thus behind One Nation, a move that has evidently lost its taboo since the issue of One Nation preferences tore the state’s Coalition parties apart around the turn of the century. This could potentially be consequential in Bundamba, where it is conceivable that One Nation could outpoll the LNP and defeat Labor with their preferences.

Elsewhere:

• The Federal Court has dismissed a Section 44 challenge against Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s eligibility to sit in parliament on grounds of dual Hungarian citizenship, to which he was allegedly entitled via his Hungarian-born mother. The petitioner, Michael Staindl, initially pointed to Australian documentation suggesting her family arrived in Australia in 1950 with Hungarian passports, having fled the country the previous year as the post-war communist regime tightened its grip. However, it was established that this arose from loose definitions used at the time by the Australian authorities, and that what the family actually had was “a form of single use emigrant exit passport”. This led Staindl to twice reformulate his argument, eventually settling on the contention that Frydenberg’s mother was left with the “shell” of a citizenship that had been emptied only by the communist regime’s arbitrary and capricious “pseudo-law”, a factor that ceased to apply with its demise in 1989. This did not impress the court, which dismissed the petition and ordered Staindl to pay costs.

• The Age/Herald has polling results from Newgate Research on which aspects of coronavirus are of greatest public concern. The results are reasonably consistent across the board, but top of the list is “the overall economic impact”, with which 41% express themselves extremely concerned, 36% quite concerned, 19% slightly concerned and 4% not at all concerned. “Regular health services not being available” produces similar results of 35%, 32%, 25% and 8%. There are slightly more moderate results for other questions on health impacts and “shortages of food, toilet paper and other essentials”, although in all cases the combination for extremely concerned and quite concerned is well above 50%. The poll is an “online tracking study of more than 1000 Australians, taken between Wednesday and Saturday last week”.

The West Australian ($) also has a WA-only coronavirus poll, which finds 66% supporting cancellation of large sporting events, 45% for night venues, 35% for cinemas and theatres, 34% for gyms and leisure centres, 29% for schools, 28% for universities, 22% for shopping centres and 16% apiece for restaurants and cafes and public transport. Fifty-one per cent of respondents agreed the government had been fully open and honest about the risks and implications of the virus, with 25% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 890.

• The count for the Northern Territory’s Johnston by-election was finalised on Friday, with Labor’s Joel Bowden winning at the final count over Steven Klose of the Territory Alliance by 1731 votes (52.6%) to (47.4%), in the absence of any surprises in the full preference count. With no candidate polling more than 29.9% on the primary vote, the latter was always an abstract possibility, but the result after the previous exclusion was not particularly close, with Bowden on 1275 (38.7%), Klose on 1110 (33.7%) and Greens candidate Aiya Goodrich Carttling on 907 (27.6%). It seems unlikely that preferences would have favoured the Greens even if it had been otherwise. My live results facility now records the final numbers – there will be more where this came from on this site with the Queensland elections on Saturday week, certainly with the state by-elections, and perhaps also for the Brisbane City Council elections, depending on how things go.

Note also two new posts below this one, one dealing with a new poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, the other being Adrian Beaumont’s latest contribution on the Democratic primaries in the United States.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Democracy in the time of COVID-19”

Comments Page 61 of 71
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  1. I think some of the prominent commentary has not been very helpful.

    Norman Swan is a great communicator but his medical qualifications are outside disaster/pandemic control. I haven’t been able to find Bowtell’s qualifications except he was an adviser to Blewett 35 years ago.

    It would be great to have Wombat’s update but I am sure he is far too busy to read this blog

  2. Player One:

    Oakeshott Country @ #2916 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 4:03 pm

    There should be little panic when the total lockdown comes some time in the next 10 days.

    I really don’t understand this. If we were expecting to lockdown eventually (which everyone seems to agree is going to happen) then isn’t sooner better than later?

    Complex project mobilisation works best when done progressively. Trying to do everything at once leads to component failure, and then cascading effects that can derail the whole thing.

    It’s particularly the case here, where the vast majority of the populace has no prior familiarity (this is not the case in Scandinavia, where they maintain a resilient populace, and involvement is exercises is more or less compulsory for leaders, including those of the private sector).

    One reasons the “leaderboard” in that article posted by Diogenes is so powerful is that it explains the progressive mobilisation of components (and component demobilisation/suspension) in a way that is easily understood, visual (colour coded, priority ranked etc)

    Try the “rule of threes”:
    – make an announcement of new initiatives every three days
    – each announcement will include three new initiatives
    Keep the drumbeat going

  3. Boerwar says:
    Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 5:02 pm
    OC

    Fair crack of the whip!

    …..

    My view is that what he did to even the most basic levels of probity in buying the last election, and the highly likely lack of legal authority for a lot of crooked decisions in tossing grants around to buy an election, means that he is an illegitimate prime minister.

    IMO, he should be in jail.
    __________________________________
    Lol, you and Bushfire Bill endorsing revolutionary action!

    I very much doubt any PM, Labor or Liberal would do anything other than follow the health experts advice. There may be some discretion about how fast, how much, when etc but that is after all why we elect a national leadership.

  4. PhR

    Who’s talking about the Great Satan?

    Not me.

    IMO one of the drivers of Brexit was a series of nostalgic bullshit movies about Churchill, Dunkirk, and Britain in WW2. It was a form of mass delusion.

    Comes the Virus, and along comes Vera Lynn to warble about how wonderful it all was.

    That was my objection.

    IMO, WW2 is a crap model for fighting a pandemic.

  5. Should we be surprised

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    5h
    “Trump’s insistence seemed to rest in his relationship with China’s President Xi Jingping, whom Trump believed was providing him with reliable information…despite reports from intelligence agencies.”
    So Trump believed Xi over our intelligence agencies.
    U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about a likely pandemic
    Officials reported that China appeared to be downplaying the outbreak and said swift action could be needed to contain the coronavirus.
    washingtonpost.com

  6. Boerwar, I’m seriously considering franchising a pike manufacturing business.

    Do you think now is too early, or should I be up and running before the heads begin to roll?

  7. One of the big lies about the Virus, to date, is that leaders are ‘following’ medical advice.

    They are not. Not at all. They are obviously and frequently not following medical advice.

    At best, they are taking medical advice into account when making ‘on balance’ decisions about economic and population health outcomes.

    Nothing wrong about that, IMO.

    But they could at least be upfront about the critical difference between the two usages.

  8. OC
    In the end the death rate in each country will be lined up and the Phd’s will be written. If it does not turn out well for Australia the CMO will be the fall guy. If that you can be sure.

  9. EGT
    Thanks that is exactly what I believe but I did not know the theory.
    Should we have a pool on the date of lockdown? I will go for 31 March

  10. It’s like waiting for Godot!

    Or like waiting for the Titanic to meet the ice berg sometime in the next month. We have a Captain and crew who, us passengers in steerage class don’t trust, telling us not to panic as they have it under control.

    We know there are not enough life boats as they were never built to save money to spend on champagne for the toffs.

    We know the few life boats are reserved for the rich and self absorbed mates of the Captain.

    Hmmmmmmm

  11. ‘Fulvio Sammut says:
    Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 5:09 pm

    Boerwar, I’m seriously considering franchising a pike manufacturing business.

    Do you think now is too early, or should I be up and running before the heads begin to roll?’

    Petards are going to be a hot item as Aussies start dying by the dozens and the hundreds over March/April.

  12. I would like a factual picture of lockdown. Is it everyone confined to their houses? It’s not as if Oz has defined city boundaries. There’s an awful lot of space to rattle around in within states.

  13. I am concerned about the US – a much diminished response in a heavily armed society. It will be interesting to see what happens in the Cal and NY lockdowns
    At least their armed forces are large and disciplined and without a history of staging coups

  14. Lars Von Trier says:
    Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 4:57 pm

    Does our geographical isolation help? I assume if its bad in Sydney/Melbourne/Brisvegas – Adelaide, Perth and the regions are relatively unaffected?

    In the absence of measures to arrest spread, the rate of growth in cases in any population will ensure the case numbers double every 3-4 days. It only takes a single index case for this to happen. Community spread is occurring already and the growth will be geometric. It’s a communicable disease. Where human-to-human contact is possible the disease will spread unless effective measures are taken to prevent it.

  15. Boerwar says: Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 5:08 pm

    PhR

    IMO one of the drivers of Brexit was a series of nostalgic bullshit movies about Churchill, Dunkirk, and Britain in WW2. It was a form of mass delusion.

    Comes the Virus, and along comes Vera Lynn to warble about how wonderful it all was.

    That was my objection.

    ****************************************************

    Bowerwar – I was lucky enough to be long born of WW 2 ……. but you UNDERsell the contribution of the influence of Vera Lynn to those who lived though those times ….

    I rate the songs of Vera Lyne and the speeches of Winston Churchill as MAJOR contributions as sustaining the MORALE of the Brits in WW 2

    My mum, who lived through the blitz ( like OUR Lizzie, said the same thing ) – I remember her words – ” he may well have been a drunken old hound but his speeches gave us hope when all seemed lost ” …… and indeed after the loss of soldiers and vast amounts of equipment at Dunkirk all that stood against Hitler were Churchill’s oratory and a small band of brave pilots and 2 incredible aeroplanes in the Hurricane and the Spitfire and a chain home radar system that gave them advance warnings enough to get them into the air in time.

    I am sure Churchill had many faults and did many unconshionable things before and during WW2 for which he has been judged accordingly ….. but he did help prevent Hitler taking over Europe when it mattered

  16. Briefly wrote:

    The development of the pandemic represents the greatest failure of leadership in recorded history. It could have been stopped 3 months ago. It wasn’t. We now face an indeterminate period of social, personal and economic repression and a swelling tide of illness and premature death.

    When I say that, Briefly comes back and calls it racist dogwhistling of the worst kind. How do we even know the virus originated in China, he asks.

    “Three months ago” was mid-December, 2019. It was a 100% Wuhan show then. Local Communist party apparatchiks on the take from illegal wet market racketeers, heavying brave whistle-blowing doctors, covering up the incriminating medical evidence… THAT was Briefly’s “three months ago” when China could have stopped it. The Chinese were the only ones who could have.

    All the rest – Morrison’s vacuuous cheeriness, the Trump indifference and dereliction, the Korean cultists, the Iranian mullahs who thought Allah would save them, the Italians going “Meh? What virus?” – all the rest wouldn’t have mattered so much, if only Beijing had had the guts to act.

    I got hauled over the coals last night… by Briefly… for pointing this out.

    What changed his mind?

  17. The French lockdown is very well planned.
    To step outside you must download a form with a few exceptions to being outdoors including going to a supermarket (all small stores are closed). Police will stop you and ask for your form – failure to produce is an on spot fine of 130 Euros

  18. Fulvio Sammut @ #3009 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 5:09 pm

    Boerwar, I’m seriously considering franchising a pike manufacturing business.

    Do you think now is too early, or should I be up and running before the heads begin to roll?

    You may be able to assist me.

    I am in the early design stage of a machine to extract the smoke blown up Federal Gummint politicians arses.

    This would have to be of an extreme heavy duty nature and would need to incorporate restraints to prevent said politicians continuing the self smoking process.

    Send designs to Mr. W. Bowe Esq – Magaging Director, Poll Bludger Enterprises, Perth WA

    Yours faithfully,

    Corporal Jones

  19. Mr Morrison has signalled that he intends to use the Italian Lombardy lock down model.

    In essence the theory is that the pandemic is out of control in a part of Australia and that part will be locked down while the rest of us (provided we are not in the locked down region) will do BAU.

    As a matter of historical fact, the intention to lock down Lombardy was leaked ahead of time and immediately triggered a mass flight to all regions of Italy. This, in turn, was followed by a total lockdown of the whole of Italy.

    Those doing doing a prediction derby on a lock down date should specify whether their prediction refers to a region, a place, a state, or the whole of Australia.

  20. My boss in a far away universe a long time ago was a Doctor of Science (that’s one up from a PhD) in the field of risk modelling. I remember his explanation that procrastination is a very efficient strategy, which translates as not doing something until you need to because it saves you from doing what you don’t. But he was bloody keen on planning and dynamics and interacting systems and lead times, so that you have choices and can do the right “something” when the time comes. When the time scales you’re familiar with are months and years it is difficult to change gears for days and weeks. When your political instinct is self interest it is easy to hesitate, hide and perhaps block.

    Like the firies our health professionals will be recognised as heroes. The overarching planning is also available for all to read, though details are necessarily flexible. (E.g. For Qld https://www.health.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0030/444684/influenza-pandemic-plan.pdf) Reading it helped me interpret what little I was hearing.

  21. BK

    That graph shows to me that Australia is in the main scrum heading in the wrong direction.

    There is no sign of a turn to the right.

    Am i wrong to be alarmed?

  22. RI, the virus could well evolve. Anything with DNA in it can.

    We may not have to continually deal with deadly strains of C19 as it evolves. One of the evolutionary pressures will be to make it less virulent.

    Examples of this are the mixo and calicivirus and rabbits. Not only did the rabbits evolve to be less affect by the bugs, but the bugs also became less lethal.

  23. ‘Bowerwar – I was lucky enough to be long born of WW 2 ……. but you UNDERsell the contribution of the influence of Vera Lynn to those who lived though those times …’

    I could not give a hoot about what Vera Lynn did during WW2.

    She has transmuted that into a sort of ahistorical golden glow.

    As noted previously, WW2, with or without the warbling of Lynn, is a shit poor model for global cooperation in fighting a pandemic.

    Lynn craps on about a ‘community’ of nations.

    Every nation on earth disagrees with Lynn, BTW.

    They have practically all sealed their borders tight shut.

    Sauve qui peut roolz.

  24. OC
    (edited to make it clear that this is my view)
    I think, the theory may be sound but you only have to understand the basic maths to see it will be too late. The hospitals will be overrun.

    When mum dies do you think they will reflect on how they would have ignored the lockdown if it was earlier or the slow response.

    I think Norman Swan will be the hero for stating what those that keep up with overseas news are thinking. Andrews will be the hero for going 4 days early ( it he goes on the 27th). It is my strong view the CMO will be seen as the villain.

  25. Rakali
    It’s too early yet to see if any of our actions have taken effect. The important thing to look for is the slope of the line.

  26. Once again the incidence graph is of limited use because it does not take into account the varying testing regimens and pick up rates.

    The death rate in the next graph is of more value because it is harder to hide deaths. Australia won’t start on that graph until we have 10 deaths


  27. PeeBee says:
    Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 5:27 pm

    RI, the virus could well evolve. Anything with DNA in it can.

    I think corona is an RNA virus, no DNA.

  28. phoenixRED

    As BB describes it, Morrison’s ‘vacuuous cheeriness’ is totally unconvincing, except maybe to those who aren’t taking the pandemic seriously, or don’t believe in it. He’s preaching at us with no substance.

  29. On the bright side, stock in shops seems to be settling down. Apart from toilet paper and hand wash, there didn’t seem to be too much missing.

    Plenty of fruit and veg. Meat looked like it was starting to return as well. I guess everyone’s freezer is full.

  30. Boerwar says: Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 5:27 pm

    ‘Bowerwar – I was lucky enough to be long born of WW 2 ……. but you UNDERsell the contribution of the influence of Vera Lynn to those who lived though those times …’

    I could not give a hoot about what Vera Lynn did during WW2.

    She has transmuted that into a sort of ahistorical golden glow.

    ******************************************************

    OK ……. I just broke a Golden Rule on Pollbludger – and that is NEVER to argue with a person whose opinion I have NO RESPECT for …..

    I can now side with Nath – at least the Germans have some reason to be arrogant ….

  31. Thanks BK.

    It’s a pity we couldn’t run things like Japan.

    I think Japan has almost only public health. Pretty well no private hospitals.

  32. Frednk, probably is, but the same evolutionary pressures apply.

    I am surprised no body mentioned a dead dog on the side of the road, full of DNA won’t be evolving.

  33. OC
    Australia was way too slow to shut its borders. The imbecile CMO actually told Chinese students they could arrive and go straight back to school. They couldn’t make a decision to shut the GP or rugby. They seem intent on letting as many infected travellers as possible into the country whether by plane of ship. Thank Dog you can’t take a train here we would have had that to contend with as well.

    Norman Swan is right. We have been failed by the Federal government and CMO.
    The states haven’t been too bad but it’s too soon to see how their plans will go.


  34. Oakeshott Country says:
    Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 5:33 pm

    Frednk
    Would you mind putting a few “I think”s among your statements?

    Thanks

    That goes without saying.

  35. Diogenes

    As you say, too slow to close the borders.

    @MeckeringBoy
    ·
    6m
    Not “just” one or two cruise ships? But FOUR?!

    Before last election Dutton boasted LNP had spent $14 Billion (from memory) on border security.

    Boasted about stopping innocents.
    But
    They don’t stop infected (?) cruise ships ?

  36. lizzie @ #3038 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 4:31 pm

    phoenixRED

    As BB describes it, Morrison’s ‘vacuuous cheeriness’ is totally unconvincing, except maybe to those who aren’t taking the pandemic seriously, or don’t believe in it. He’s preaching at us with no substance.

    Which has me thinking, that “cheeriness” in itself is a problem, leading people to downplay the issue. It is unclear (and probably irrelevant) if this is deliberate or whether this is just he natural style.

  37. There is no way the Australian Government’s various responses to the Coronavirus can be described as anything less than woeful. At all levels.

    We were warned. By experts. Our governments did nothing. We watched examples of what happened in other countries – some who handled it well, some who handled it badly. Our governments still did nothing. We watched it arrive on our shores. Our governments still did nothing. We watched while it started to spread within the community. Our governments still did nothing. We watched while people started to panic. But still our governments did nothing.

    I attended a Tourism Australia workshop on how Australia was gearing up to recover from the bushfires only a few weeks ago. This included representatives from all levels of government – federal, state and local. Coronavirus was mentioned. People laughed (albeit a bit nervously). No-one took it very seriously.

    Finally, our governments reacted. With inadequate measures that are having to be upgraded almost every day. And they are still not doing enough.

    Just like what happened with the bushfires, and just like what will happen with global warming – more people than necessary will die, because of government inaction and incompetence.

    Makes you wonder what we pay them for, doesn’t it?

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