Two things

Some rare insights into how preferences behave in unusual circumstances courtesy of the Johnston by-election, and yet more data on issue salience, this time from JWS Research.

Two things:

• At Antony Green’s prompting, the Northern Territory Electoral Commission has published breakdowns of the various candidates’ preferences flows at Saturday’s Johnston by-election, providing measures of the impact of highly unusual preferencing behaviour by the Greens and the Country Labor Party — remembering that the Northern Territory prohibits dissemination of how-to-vote cards is the immediate vicinity of polling booths. Having done the unthinkable and put Labor last, the Greens’ preferences split 56.9-43.1 between Labor and the Territory Alliance, compared with my own rule of thumb that Labor gets 80% of Greens preferences when they are so directed and 75% when no recommendation is made. Note that this is the Territory Alliance rather than the Country Liberal Party, and that Labor’s flow would presumably have been somewhat stronger had it been otherwise. The CLP no less unusually put Labor second, and their preferences went 52.9-47.1 in favour of the Territory Alliance.

• JWS Research has released its latest quarterly True Issues report, confirming the impression of other similar polling that the salience of the environment and climate chnage spiked over summer. Respondents were separately asked to name three issues off the tops of their heads and to pick the five most important issues out of a list of twenty, with confusingly different results – environment reigned supreme in the first case, but in the second it trailed cost of living (which ranked low when unprompted) and health (second in both cases). Perhaps the most revealing point is that environment increased in the prompted question from 33% a year ago to 42%, while immigration and border security fell from 36% to 25%. The federal government was reckoned to be performing well by 28% of respondents, down two since the November survey, and poorly by 35%, up two. The survey was conducted online from a sample of 1000 from February 20-24.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,654 comments on “Two things”

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  1. C@tmomma:

    [‘You are not the Comptroller General of PB.’]

    I’ve never purported to be. I don’t comprehend your comment.

  2. ” You have the self awareness of an amoeba.”

    Reminds me of a story (probably apocryphal) of a heated debate in the Australian Parliament in the 1950s:

    Member for X, in response to an interjection by the member for Y: ”The Honorable Member for Y has the brains of a sheep!”
    Speaker: ”The Honourable Member for X will withdraw that comment!”
    Member for X: ”Certainly Mr Speaker. The Honourable Member for Y does not have the brains of a sheep.”

  3. P1

    Labor lost the election because those that wanted Labor to lose the election did a better job of it. It is that simple.

  4. William Bowe:

    [‘I am though, and I’m about to start deleting comments if I deem them to be childish and moronic, as far too many posted over the past hour or so clearly have been.’]

    Really, most posts tonight have been benign.

  6. “People are going to have to stop kissing the Pope’s ring.” His arse be red raw and badly in need of a soothing topical cream with anaesthetic.

  7. Labor lost the election because they ran an utterly hopeless campaign which failed on several counts, including:
    – selling Labor’s policies / program
    – failing to communicate any sort of vision (assuming that they had one)
    – failing to anticipate and counter Coalition lies
    – allowing the Coalition and their allies to choose the battlefields


  8. Steve777 says:
    Friday, March 6, 2020 at 9:25 pm

    Labor lost the election because they ran an utterly hopeless campaign which failed on several counts, including:
    – selling Labor’s policies / program
    – failing to communicate any sort of vision (assuming that they had one)
    – failing to anticipate and counter Coalition lies
    – allowing the Coalition and their allies to choose the battlefields

    Which can all be covered with simple statement. Labor lost the election because those that wanted Labor to lose the election did a better job of it.

    To pretend that there was no a lot of groups ( including the Greens) lined up against Labor is to deal in fairy tails.

  9. frednk @ #1602 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:19 pm

    P1

    Labor lost the election because those that wanted Labor to lose the election did a better job of it. It is that simple.

    Which of course is just another way of saying that more people preferred someone else to Labor. Doesn’t it make more sense to put it like that? Or is that too confronting for you?

    And has Labor learned anything from that loss?

    Seems they have not.

  10. The ‘billion’ dollars that the media attributed to Morrison is:

    $100 million in the first tranche to be matched 50:50 by the states.

    Scotty from Marketing might fuck up droughts, fires, the economy and coronavirus but the gets the Marketing right.

  11. It’s Time @ #1596 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:10 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1579 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 7:54 pm

    Thank you, rhw. 🙂

    I had a speculative belief that any form of pneumonia or pneumonia-like illness would be especially harmful to them.

    I also need to tell you that it’s spreading beyond the N/Ne Asia and Europe area(though he did fly via Taiwan):

    Renowned Australian composer Brett Dean has been diagnosed with coronavirus and is beingtreated in Adelaide, his agents have confirmed.

    The 58-year-old was due to lead the Adelaide Symphony Orchestra in a concert at the Adelaide Festival on Saturday night.

    Dean had withdrawn from that event because of a suspected case of pneumonia.

    However, the Brisbane-born musician was one of two people in South Australia diagnosed on Thursday with coronavirus – the other being an eight-month-old boy.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/music/2020/03/06/brett-dean-coronavirus/

    It sounds like he was in Taiwan and flew to Adelaide via Brisbane. It doesn’t indicate how long he was in Taiwan. It is likely that he was infected in Taiwan. I don’t see how this is any different to the other cases of people entering Australia from overseas and being discovere to be infected.

    I was under the impression that Taiwan wasn’t as crazy with Coronavirus as other Asian countries contiguous with China. According to the Coronavirus dashboard it is on about a par with Australia:

    Taiwan
    Confirmed: 45 Serious: 0 Critical: 0 Recovered: 12 Dead: 1

  12. William Bowe:

    Friday, March 6, 2020 at 9:23 pm

    [‘I didn’t say otherwise’]

    You didn’t. As I suggested, this site tonight is okay – it’s been a far lot worse.


  14. Player One says:
    Friday, March 6, 2020 at 9:33 pm

    frednk @ #1602 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:19 pm

    P1

    Labor lost the election because those that wanted Labor to lose the election did a better job of it. It is that simple.

    Which of course is just another way of saying that more people preferred someone else to Labor. Doesn’t it make more sense to put it like that? Or is that too confronting for you?

    And has Labor learned anything from that loss?

    Seems they have not.

    I’d say they have learnt a lot, one lesson being to no longer tolerate the Greens ( a minor party that doesn’t even have a formal policy making structure) continual undermining of Labor. You claim not to be affiliated with the Greens but you follow with vigor the Greens central goal, the undermining of Labor. Affiliation is not required.

  15. frednk @ #1613 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:39 pm

    I’d say they have learnt a lot, one lesson being to no longer tolerate the Greens ( a minor party that doesn’t even have a formal policy making structure) continual undermining of Labor. You claim not to be affiliated with the Greens but you follow with vigor the Greens central goal, the undermining of Labor. Affiliation is not required.

    So, that would be a ‘no’ then?

  16. ”To pretend that there was no a lot of groups ( including the Greens) lined up against Labor is to deal in fairy [tales]”

    Labor had 95% of all the money in the country against it. The largest media organisation actively campaigning for its enemies. Most of the ”natural” sources of power against it, including incumbency. A Government that used the public purse as an election slush fund. But we already knew that. Labor made no attempt to counter any of it.

    As for the Greens, they didn’t help. They seem to be campaigning for a bigger share of a fixed non-Right vote, when they should have been at least been trying to expand the non-Right vote.

  17. Mavis @ #1612 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:35 pm

    William Bowe:

    Friday, March 6, 2020 at 9:23 pm

    [‘I didn’t say otherwise’]

    You didn’t. As I suggested, this site tonight is okay – it’s been a far lot worse.

    Just because it hasn’t been so bad tonight doesn’t mean that remedial measures don’t need to be taken. Like I said, put another way, who do you think you are to adjudicate and prosecute the case against?

  18. Steve777
    I think it was a great pity Labor lost as middle class welfare has to end, and there was well articulated plan to end it. That was a mistake.

    Kill Bill was a success, Nath is still waging that war,many have tried to tell him the war is over, he won.

  19. frednk @ #1618 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:49 pm

    Steve777
    I think it was a great pity Labor lost as middle class welfare has to end, and there was well articulated plan to end it. That was a mistake.

    Kill Bill was a success, Nath is still waging that war,many have tried to tell him the war is over, he won.

    You must admit, nath has expanded his purview to Skin Jim as well now. 😐

  21. C@tmomma
    says:
    You must admit, nath has expanded his purview to Skin Jim as well now.
    _________________
    I don’t really have an extensive critique on Chalmers. Just that he begged and cried Rudd not to punish him after the Ruddstoration for the attacks Chalmers engineered against him.

    He was bitterly nasty to Rudd and then fawningly craven when Rudd was restored. Not a good personality trait.

    My only other criticism is that he’s shadow treasurer because he’s of the right faction and a queenslander.

  23. C@tmomma:

    [‘Just because it hasn’t been so bad tonight doesn’t mean that remedial measures don’t need to be taken. Like I said, put another way, who do you think you are to adjudicate and prosecute the case against?’]

    Please get a grip.

  25. ”I think it was a great pity Labor lost as middle class welfare has to end, and there was well articulated plan to end it. That was a mistake.”

    The sort of middle class welfare we have here is absurd and unsustainable. If something can’t go in it will stop – eventually (Stoner’s Law). Even so, the next Labor Government should at least make a start. But in this regard, be like the enemy. But don’t lie – ethical considerations aside, Labor won’t be allowed to get away with it. Just don’t mention it. The Coalition doesn’t tell us what they want to cut or sell off while campaigning for reelection. They just do it once they’re safely back.

  26. Mavis @ #1623 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:57 pm

    C@tmomma:

    [‘Just because it hasn’t been so bad tonight doesn’t mean that remedial measures don’t need to be taken. Like I said, put another way, who do you think you are to adjudicate and prosecute the case against?’]

    Please get a grip.

    Mavis, your flippant ripostes don’t scare me off. I have a very good grip on things, actually.

  28. frednk
    says:
    Kill Bill was a success, Nath is still waging that war,many have tried to tell him the war is over, he won.
    ______________
    It’s true. I was magnificent.

  30. C@tmomma:

    [‘I have a very good grip on things, actually.’]

    Why do you do this, making a fool of yourself? I would add that way before you were here, I was here – not that means a tinker’s…

  31. Mavis @ #1630 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 10:15 pm

    C@tmomma:

    [‘I have a very good grip on things, actually.’]

    Why do you do this, making a fool of yourself? I would add that way before you were here, I was here – not that means a tinker’s…

    Mavis, I’m nobody’s fool and the basis upon which you make that accusation is without merit. Also, yes, it is the case that I came here a little after you, excuse me if I was writing posts for another political blog before I did and so my PB longevity is not as great as yours. 😐

    However, that goes to my original point. Just because you have been here a long time doesn’t give you permission to pass judgement on other people’s posts as if you have some sort of quasi management position. For example, calling me a ‘fool’ or to say that I should ‘get a grip’. It’s just unnecessary.

    And that’s the last thing I’m going to say to you about it. I’ve made my point and if you don’t get it or don’t want to, that’s your choice to make.

  34. Taylormade

    And what precisely could Labor have done, in terms of policy and rhetoric, that would be seen by those “ordinary Australians” as having been listened to?

  35. Steve777 @ #1625 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 10:00 pm

    ”I think it was a great pity Labor lost as middle class welfare has to end, and there was well articulated plan to end it. That was a mistake.”

    The sort of middle class welfare we have here is absurd and unsustainable. If something can’t go in it will stop – eventually (Stoner’s Law). Even so, the next Labor Government should at least make a start. But in this regard, be like the enemy. But don’t lie – ethical considerations aside, Labor won’t be allowed to get away with it. Just don’t mention it. The Coalition doesn’t tell us what they want to cut or sell off while campaigning for reelection. They just do it once they’re safely back.

    And I have just read that the Morrison government are going to make the same mistake again!

    The government’s stimulus package is expected to be launched on Wednesday. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said it would be “targeted”, “scalable” and “designed to keep Australian businesses in business and Australian workers in jobs”. It is expected to focus on small and medium businesses, self-funded retirees and the tourism sector.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-big-will-the-deficit-be-coronavirus-stimulus-package-to-wipe-out-surplus-20200305-p5475j.html

    Haven’t they gotten enough off this government already!?! What about the truly poor people on Newstart?

  37. Its about basic values and beliefs. The Liberals hold a set of basic values and beliefs that are toxic. They really do believe that if you’re unemployed, that you’ve deserved it. Its a fundamental tenet of their religion that if you’re poor, you suck. That you can’t be unlucky, you’re just unworthy.

    And its something I’d love to see Albo talk about.. the fundamental darkness behind what drives the Liberal party.

  39. I have had no time for the greens since they refused to support Rudds climate change legislation – and even less time for them after refusing to support the Malaysian deal.

    But the attacks on SHY for giving character reference to a wife basing mate are silly and comparison with the st k principal completely absurd.

    The principal by his in court action completely undermined his 2 students, who should have been his primary concern.

    Shy seems to know basher and victim. If she honestly and reasonably believes the basher is truly contrite and will not repeat
    she owes it to our justice system to pass on that information to be evaluated as part of the sentence process.

    She owes no duty to the victim and is not betraying in any way the importance of the need for men to change individually and collectively and end the control and domination which is the root cause of DV.

  41. Cud
    I wouldn’t say they see the unemployed as unworthy but they question how hard are they trying to find employment and many of them point to some slacker they know or knew but in many cases its an old story. I know a guy that left school at the end of year 11 then went surfing for two years so fits the bludger image yet today he is a successful architect. Part of the problem is many of them have not been job seekers for years like a hard line Liberal now retireed that is always whinging about the unemployed then admits he hasn’t looked for work since the 1980s.

  42. I wouldn’t say they see the unemployed as unworthy but they question how hard are they trying to find employment and many of them point to some slacker

    Actually Beemer, the “they must be lazy” response is simply cognitive duct tape. Its a symptom of the deeper belief that life is good to the deserving – the virtuous. Its a symptom of denial of the fact that life has more to do with luck then merit. In fact a lot of people, not just Liberals and Liberal voters, maintain this core belief.

    This is why we have a self help industry. Read how successful people act. You can be successful too. Its all about you. Its not about your circumstances. And its this widely held belief system (which is pretty close to being religious faith) that underpins the Liberal view of people and society.

    Once you deny that bad luck has any part in life outcomes and you see someone “unfortunate”, your mind will defend its belief system. Instead of seeing someone as unlucky, you’ll see someone as a “dole bludger”. And that labelling is merely a symptom, not the core of the problem.

    More than once I’ve thought of writing the definitive anti-self-help book. One that looks into the science of success. One that reveals that yes, luck has almost everything to do with life outcomes. Yes, your postcode is far more important than your intelligence. An honest look at these kinds of bad beliefs and explodes the rest of the self help genre.

    Maybe a companion book that looks into the lives of successful people and investigates deeper, looking into how luck played a pivotal role in their lives. How they were indeed fortunate, got the right breaks, or had the right support mechanism (family, spouse etc).

    By the way, this was heard recently on ABC. The Science of Success
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/the-new-science-of-success/11928636

    Simon Nasht: One seemingly whimsical finding in this area is that in order to be successful, you need to be born in the right month. At least if you want to make your mark in life as a sport star.

    Arnout van de Rijt: In the Netherlands, it used to be the case that in the soccer teams, September 1st was the cut-off date, and so the oldest kids were born in September or October and these ended up, as it turns out, also the superstars in the Dutch soccer team. So, if you look at the distributing of birthdates in the Dutch soccer team what you would see is a large concentration of individuals born at the end of the summer, the beginning of the fall.

    Simon Nasht: But this is far more than just coincidence.

    Arnout van de Rijt: In the ’90s this cut-off point was changed. So, where the threshold used to be at the end of summer, it was changed to January 1st, beginning of the year, and what we now see is precisely the effect of that. Most of the star players are all born in the beginning of the year; January, February, March.

    Simon Nasht: One explanation is the age difference.

    Arnout van de Rijt: Children who are almost five years old are much better than children who have just turned four. They are faster, they are stronger, they outperform the other kids in the team.

    Simon Nasht: But what’s even more significant is another effect: the coach will encourage these better performing players.

    Arnout van de Rijt: They get special attention, they go then to soccer practice more often, the parents think of them as more successful, as more able and they are put in a trajectory to become a star soccer player.

    Simon Nasht: The selected players receive better teammates and more opportunities. And as a result, they become the best players as adults, fulfilling the prophecy that they are the most talented.

    There’s a dozen brilliant and often counter-intuitive examples in that transcript. A real eye opener to the fact that success is very often just dumb shit luck.

    And its the belief structure that automatically assigns value to successful people that is at the core of what is wrong with “Liberal values”. Joe’s “lifters and leaners” was such a breath of fresh air in a way because it was so honest.

  43. Ignorance of simple fact.
    Wilful ignorance.
    Dangerous, wilful igborance.
    And..
    John Barilaro

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/why-small-nuclear-reactors-could-be-nsw-s-energy-and-emissions-solution-20200305-p54757.html

    Yes, we’ve embraced wind and solar, and with battery storage they will continue to add more energy to the network. But they cannot deliver continuous, reliable power.

    The NSW Deputy Permier is, in point of fact, plainly wrong.

    Question. Who in our democracy can speak truth to power and is able to simply ring this fool up?

  44. The Morrison government has told researchers at two of Australia’s leading universities it will break a commitment to fund an international collaboration into what is required to shift to a zero emissions future.

    The Australian-German Energy Transition Hub was announced in 2017 by then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and German chancellor Angela Merkel as a collaboration that would “help the technical, economic and social transition to new energy systems and a low emissions economy”.

    Based at the University of Melbourne, the Australian National University and three German institutions, it was to receive $4m over five years from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade as part of an eventual full cross-country funding of $20m.

    But in an email to staff on Friday afternoon, hub managers said the department had told them the government had decided it would “not follow through on its original commitment to fund the hub until 2022”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/06/morrison-government-to-stop-funding-20m-international-collaboration-on-shift-to-zero-emissions?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  45. lizzie,
    As Cud said last night, there is a darkness at the core of the Liberal/National Coalition. That is but another example.

  46. This is the smirk you have when leaving a presser in which you pretended that you cared only about coronavirus and refused to answer any questions about your own unethical behaviour.

  47. lizzie
    That is what is called a resting smirkface.
    The Dawn Patrol is just getting started. I had a huge day and night and got up a little later than usual.

  48. I suspected as much. That a cash splash at small business as a result of Coronavirus, won’t have the same sort of effect as the cash stimulus during the GFC did because people weren’t afraid to go out and spend their money during the GFC but they are now.

    Andrew Charlton outlines the problems we are about to face in Australia very, very well:

    So why can’t we stimulate our way out of the virus crisis?

    One problem is that this is a different kind of crisis. Most of the economic problems we’ve had over the past 30 years were what economists call “demand shocks”. These are sudden changes in circumstances that create a wave of fear and lead to a rapid slowdown in spending. Government stimulus works by showering consumers with money and coaxing them back to the shops.

    But the early economic impact of COVID-19 is not a demand shock caused by consumers unwilling to buy. It’s a supply shock caused by businesses having less to sell because their factories are closed, their supply chains are disrupted and their workers are quarantined at home. Trying to stimulate your way out of a supply shock is like throwing water on a grease fire. In a worst-case scenario, stimulus can exacerbate the shock as panic buying creates shortages and rising inflation.

    This week was a dramatic demonstration of the impotence of stimulus in the face of a supply shock. The US Federal Reserve delivered the largest emergency interest rate cut since the GFC. In response, the US stockmarket shrugged, then tanked. South Korea announced a $10 billion stimulus package, but it didn’t make a jot of difference to the immediate problem that local factories can’t reopen until critical components from China start flowing again.

    …However deep the short-term impact of COVID-19 becomes, its real legacy will be its long-term effects. Australia’s economy has already slowed significantly over the past year, and the virus could accelerate our transition to a new, less benign economic era, characterised by softening economic tailwinds and a darker geopolitical backdrop.

    Australia has enjoyed a remarkable period of 28 years of prosperity. This was the longest run of unbroken economic growth, not just in Australia’s history but in modern world history among all advanced nations.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-a-cash-splash-can-t-save-us-from-the-virus-crisis-20200305-p547bl.html

  49. I think the smirk will be wiped off Scott Morrison’s face when he presides over the government that saw the end of Australia’s 28 years of uninterrupted growth!

  50. C@t

    I’m not devious enough to work out how he’ll try to absolve himself of any blame and win the next election, but I fear he might be successful.

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