Two things:
• At Antony Green’s prompting, the Northern Territory Electoral Commission has published breakdowns of the various candidates’ preferences flows at Saturday’s Johnston by-election, providing measures of the impact of highly unusual preferencing behaviour by the Greens and the Country Labor Party — remembering that the Northern Territory prohibits dissemination of how-to-vote cards is the immediate vicinity of polling booths. Having done the unthinkable and put Labor last, the Greens’ preferences split 56.9-43.1 between Labor and the Territory Alliance, compared with my own rule of thumb that Labor gets 80% of Greens preferences when they are so directed and 75% when no recommendation is made. Note that this is the Territory Alliance rather than the Country Liberal Party, and that Labor’s flow would presumably have been somewhat stronger had it been otherwise. The CLP no less unusually put Labor second, and their preferences went 52.9-47.1 in favour of the Territory Alliance.
• JWS Research has released its latest quarterly True Issues report, confirming the impression of other similar polling that the salience of the environment and climate chnage spiked over summer. Respondents were separately asked to name three issues off the tops of their heads and to pick the five most important issues out of a list of twenty, with confusingly different results – environment reigned supreme in the first case, but in the second it trailed cost of living (which ranked low when unprompted) and health (second in both cases). Perhaps the most revealing point is that environment increased in the prompted question from 33% a year ago to 42%, while immigration and border security fell from 36% to 25%. The federal government was reckoned to be performing well by 28% of respondents, down two since the November survey, and poorly by 35%, up two. The survey was conducted online from a sample of 1000 from February 20-24.
Collapse in air travel provides an opportunity to add data to the following analyses:
https://globalnews.ca/news/2934513/empty-skies-after-911-set-the-stage-for-an-unlikely-climate-change-experiment/
BW
And yet, I don’t on this. But do continue verballing me and misrepresenting my view.
Jackol
I suppose it comes down to, if 1% who vote for a single issue, say shooting ducks should be able to hold the system to ransom for those that want to shoot ducks. Personally I’m on the side of the ducks.
There needs to be something to prevent single issues parties getting more say than they deserve.
Think Morrison’s moniker of the marketer should be updated to be :
‘The Gaslighting Marketer’
The way he treats journalists or anyone who asks a question he does not like or want to answer is disgraceful.
I acknowledge that Peg and Rex have been consistent in the matter of SH-Y and more power to both of them.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/03/03/two-things/comment-page-31/#comment-3353841
… in Switzerland, where I resided before Holland or New Holland, unless you have been there for generations, well, you’re not a local, and even then if you want to become a citizen you need support, not just a language and other test.
There are some locations where foreigners can buy, but they are the exception.
[Oh, and post-colonial Australia given the Australia Act(s) of 1986 so needs to drop the colonial Union Jack from the flag!]
One interview show that Morrison would never go on: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/n13xtmdc
They wouldn’t accept his bullshit.
P.S. According to an ad on that site, I’m invited to ”join the mission” – the ASIO Graduate Technologist Program: https://www.asio.gov.au/techgrads.html?dclid=CMa-qO62hegCFcENtwAdNVgB0Q&utm_source=4788359&utm_medium=display&utm_term=265540333&utm_content=127592887&utm_campaign=ioandtechgradprogram&dpuid=0
Maybe they need sexagenarian lefties.
Pegasus says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 5:05 pm
……does anyone believe any alliance of any sort is possible between Labor and the Greens?
I devoutly hope an alliance is never even proposed, let alone formed, between Labor and the Splitters.
The days of Green-cake are drawing to an end in Vic. Great.
I heard Dominic Perrottet(NSW Coalition Treasurer), on the news this evening, actually stand there and say, to a question about the privatisation of West Connex, wherein his own words before the election were pointed out to him, viz: “We have no plans to privatise West Connex” (said, hand on heart as if they wouldn’t do it):
“We had no plans then. Now we have a plan.”
Thankfully he looked as dodgy saying that as what it seems.
‘Maybe they need sexagenarian lefties.’
Geeze Steve, I had you pinned as an under 40 type…..LOL
There’s little doubting that there’s a fair bit of panic in the community re. the virus. There are reports, for instance, that once affected, such doesn’t guarantee immunity – can it mutate? If I were young, with issue I too would be worried. That said, codgers in the trailer park are generally dealing with it quite well.
frednk @ #1552 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 6:21 pm
Umm, that 1% can’t hold anyone to ransom unless there is another 49% who will also vote that way.
Steve777 @ #1556 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 6:34 pm
Didn’t one the coal-ition pollies go on Hard Talk and get roasted not so long ago? Or was that a milder BBC forum?
If ASIO’s AI has selected you, they would appear to have too many sexagenarian lefties already running their recruitment.
Could rhwombat or Diogenes, please tell me how young people with Cystic Fibrosis would cope with contracting C-19?
Clearly SHY can no longer participate in DV discussions which is a shame as she has done good work in this area.
Very poor judgement by her. I don’t see how she can redeem her political position.
I expect she will resign, as she should.
Steve777:
[‘Maybe they need sexagenarian lefties.’]
I find your post slightly ageist – not that I’m easily offended? I’d find it more had you cited septuagenarians.
C@tmomma @ #2382 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 8:22 pm
Dunno – yet. CF is rare in non-northern European populations, so not much to go on. Theoretically, the T lymphocyte response that probably drives the severe inflammation of the lungs (ARDS) that kills most victims of SARS-CoV-2 would not be particularly frequent in CF, but damaged lungs are an issue.
Saturn occultation is pretty cool.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYJsjAmzw2c
The corruption just rolls on and on and…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nothing-to-see-here-home-affairs-chief-denies-knowing-of-bribe-requests-20200305-p54742.html
There’s a singular issue with this virus: no-one really knows. My uneducated guess is that it’ll go the way of others. As a young man in the ’50s, polio was a great threat; now it’s not.
Is self righteous indignation the preserve of Green hacks alone, only they being allowed to express their indignation at the perceived faults and bumbled deeds and words of others?
You come out swinging when you can’t get your own way, or when you’re cornered, don’t you?
I’ve been deliberately turning on you the same modus operandi that you and your fellow travellers turn on everyone else.
You are a snide individual who seeks to impugn everyone you oppose not by arguing your own opinion, but by quoting any arrant nonsense which supports your Quixotic view of the world, and when challenged you plead that you were only quoting someone else.
I’m awake to you, everyone here is awake to you, except, apparently, yourself.
It’s Time says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 8:10 pm
…
Umm, that 1% can’t hold anyone to ransom unless there is another 49% who will also vote that way.
The senior and junior anti Labor parties are there to vote against the interests of all if it meets their primary policy position, screw Labor. Ducks beware.
FS,
Which particular Green hack or hackette are you talking about? I gave up on them, so to speak (*cough* C+) ages ago. They became boring, predictable and repetitive. Plus demonstrating a particular strain of nastiness that you wouldn’t expect from supposed enlightened ones. Life’s too short to bother with it.
People are going to have to stop kissing the Pope’s ring. The first case of C-19 has been diagnosed in Vatican City.
Mavis, polio just didn’t ‘go away’. It was eradicated (and nearly globally eradicated) because of the Sabin Oral vaccine.
I find it amusing that there were no anti-vaxers in those days in fact mothers were very keen to have their children vaccinated.
I guess there were enough kiddies in wheelchairs and wearing calibers (not to mention the odd person living a life in an iron lung) to encourage them to get their children vaccinated.
My fear for you the young is that with this virus, they’ll be similarly affected by polio. We could become a nation of hypochondriacs.
Mavis @ #1570 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 7:42 pm
A vaccine made all the difference.
Mavis:’ We could become a nation of hypochondriacs.’
Polio victims were not hypochondriacs.
Thank you, rhw. 🙂
I had a speculative belief that any form of pneumonia or pneumonia-like illness would be especially harmful to them.
I also need to tell you that it’s spreading beyond the N/Ne Asia and Europe area(though he did fly via Taiwan):
https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/music/2020/03/06/brett-dean-coronavirus/
frednk @ #1572 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 7:47 pm
Do you support the tyranny of the majority?
FS
What a rant. Anyone who professes to speak for everyone as in
“everyone here is awake to you” has no credibility whatsoever.
Anyone who says “Greens and wife bashers. same-same” and then tries to spin it how you just tried so pathetically, has no credibility imo.
Such confected outrage.
Mavis you did not have to be hypochondriac to notice the affects of polio.
And to be fair to anti vaxers (who I despise as they depend on and are not willing to contribute to the herds vaccination). You did not have to be hypochondriac to have your faith in the medical system rattled by growing up with the results of thalidomide.
Fulvio Sammut:
[‘You are a snide individual who seeks to impugn everyone you oppose not by arguing your own opinion…]
In your opinion. Please stop the aggression.
C@tmomma @ #1574 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 7:50 pm
Surely the faithful would expext a micacle cure?!
You have the self awareness of an amoeba.
frednk:
I think you missed my point.
It’s Time says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 8:55 pm
frednk @ #1572 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 7:47 pm
…
Do you support the tyranny of the majority?
That is a good question because that is really what we are arguing. I have to say yes. At the federal level I do not like what the Liberals are doing but I have to live with it because that is what the anti Labor parties delivered.
Fulvio Sammut:
[‘You have the self awareness of an amoeba.’]
Yes, dear! I do hope you’re not under the weather?
No, I’m not, and I was talking to the other amoeba.
Mavis says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 9:02 pm
frednk:
I think you missed my point.
I think I might of, I could not see how being hypochondriac came into it.
Cat 8.06
“ We had no plans then. Now we have a plan.”
Thankfully he looked as dodgy saying that as what it seems.”
Yes suggesting there was no prior plan to privatise WestConnex is absolute rubbish. These projects are very complex and years of planning and analysis goes into them. They would have to have at least considered the possibility of a PPP just to meet their own funding guidelines. Lawyers, engineers, demand forecasters, accountants and probity auditors all would have been hired to write up the deed, which takes a good six months to write after planning approvals are gained. You can bet there would be a minute from Treasury or the Cabinet authorising this being done, given how huge the project is and how much money is involved. Labor should keep asking questions. Perrottet told a whopper.
Unfortunately Steve Bracks ran the same lie back in the 2000s over EastLink and the Howard government was furious.
frednk @ #1587 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:05 pm
Labor has only itself to blame for that.
Mavis,
You are not the Comptroller General of PB.
I am though, and I’m about to start deleting comments if I deem them to be childish and moronic, as far too many posted over the past hour or so clearly have been.
C@tmomma @ #1579 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 7:54 pm
It sounds like he was in Taiwan and flew to Adelaide via Brisbane. It doesn’t indicate how long he was in Taiwan. It is likely that he was infected in Taiwan. I don’t see how this is any different to the other cases of people entering Australia from overseas and being discovere to be infected.
Player One says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 9:08 pm
frednk @ #1587 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:05 pm
At the federal level I do not like what the Liberals are doing but I have to live with it because that is what the anti Labor parties delivered.
Labor has only itself to blame for that.
The Green want to claim no credit for their success? Oh the fairy tail, if labor had acquiesced to all the demands of the junior anti Labor party they would have won.
frednk @ #1587 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 8:05 pm
That of course leads to the possibility that the majority can persecute and punish the minority just because they have the majority vote. Surely that degenerates into rule by whoever has the most guns.
frednk @ #1596 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 9:13 pm
Labor likes to blame the Greens for their own failings. I guess it lets them off the hook.
Perhaps it takes someone who is not beholden to either party to see this?
It’s Time says:
Friday, March 6, 2020 at 9:14 pm
frednk @ #1587 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 8:05 pm
….
That of course leads to the possibility that the majority can persecute and punish the minority just because they have the majority vote. Surely that degenerates into rule by whoever has the most guns.
I think there is a long way between my accepting a Liberal government because that is the outcome of the election and taking up arms.