Two things

Some rare insights into how preferences behave in unusual circumstances courtesy of the Johnston by-election, and yet more data on issue salience, this time from JWS Research.

Two things:

• At Antony Green’s prompting, the Northern Territory Electoral Commission has published breakdowns of the various candidates’ preferences flows at Saturday’s Johnston by-election, providing measures of the impact of highly unusual preferencing behaviour by the Greens and the Country Labor Party — remembering that the Northern Territory prohibits dissemination of how-to-vote cards is the immediate vicinity of polling booths. Having done the unthinkable and put Labor last, the Greens’ preferences split 56.9-43.1 between Labor and the Territory Alliance, compared with my own rule of thumb that Labor gets 80% of Greens preferences when they are so directed and 75% when no recommendation is made. Note that this is the Territory Alliance rather than the Country Liberal Party, and that Labor’s flow would presumably have been somewhat stronger had it been otherwise. The CLP no less unusually put Labor second, and their preferences went 52.9-47.1 in favour of the Territory Alliance.

• JWS Research has released its latest quarterly True Issues report, confirming the impression of other similar polling that the salience of the environment and climate chnage spiked over summer. Respondents were separately asked to name three issues off the tops of their heads and to pick the five most important issues out of a list of twenty, with confusingly different results – environment reigned supreme in the first case, but in the second it trailed cost of living (which ranked low when unprompted) and health (second in both cases). Perhaps the most revealing point is that environment increased in the prompted question from 33% a year ago to 42%, while immigration and border security fell from 36% to 25%. The federal government was reckoned to be performing well by 28% of respondents, down two since the November survey, and poorly by 35%, up two. The survey was conducted online from a sample of 1000 from February 20-24.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,654 comments on “Two things”

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  2. C@tmomma @ #1462 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 4:00 pm

    It’s Time @ #1424 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 2:34 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1382 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 11:48 am

    a r,
    I happen to agree that too many wealthy Chinese are buying real estate in Australia and I think that’s wrong when our own young people can’t afford to get into the housing market. That most defintely does NOT make me a racist, however.

    And wealthy people from other countries doing it is OK?!

    I never said that. And, no, I don’t agree with that either.

    So why not make the broader point of too many foreigners rather than too many Chinese?

  3. A recent investigation into avenues for rorting via Parliamentary membership has revealed that by the end of the current financial year – no more opportunities will exist.

    A mass exodus of the present Gummint is expected to be announced any day now – citing the wish to be absent from family and the certainty of opportunities external to Straya.

    It is understood that prior to the departure of these soon to be absent MPs the massed choir of the LNP will render that old favourite.

    ♫ Wish me luck as you ♪ wave me ♫ goodbye
    ♪ Cheerio, here I go, ♫ on my ♪ way
    ♫ Wish me luck as you ♪ wave me ♫ goodbye
    ♪ Not a tear, but a ♫ cheer, make it ♫♪ gay …( make that happy).

  4. lizzie @ #1497 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 5:43 pm

    There has been a bit of commentary about the selfishness of those emptying shelves of paper goods.
    When I went shopping yesterday, I had run out of kitchen paper and genuinely needed some. The shelves were empty except for an opened six-pack, with 3 left in it. So someone had been thoughtful and not taken the lot.
    With gratitude, I took one roll and left the remaining two.

    I am expecting an Email real soon now advising that almost all of the “stuff” on my current order (Colesworths) has been substituted with “zilch”. I’m such a fool that I never considered that paper towel would be the subject of hoarding. Stupid me. 🧻 That’s a dunny roll. 🗞 That’s a rolled up newspaper with which to whack myself over the head. 🍹 That’s a fancy creaming soda based drink with which to soak my brain. 🙏

  6. KayJay

    It took me a while to realise that the paper towel ‘panic’ may be connected to the necessity to avoid damp towels when drying hands after cleansing, or the passion for spraying and wiping surfaces.
    Spoiler: you guessed it. I’m not a “you can eat off the floor” kind of person.

  7. So why not make the broader point of too many foreigners rather than too many Chinese?

    Because it’s overwhelmingly Chinese. Open your eyes.

  11. lizzie
    Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 6:07 pm
    Comment #1504

    Currently I have a painful neck (yes – I know it could be worse) and shaking my head in amazement is causing problems.

    Aside from the wonderful feeling of being a superior person looking down on my fellows – should I sue anybody.

    Rhetorical question ❗

    Goodnight all. 📺💤

  14. Speaking of wave pools (the non-truffle powered variety), I was at a party at the weekend, talking to a hard-core surfer dude (tanned, shinny, fit, and somewhat drawn out by over-exposure to the sun), and he said the wave pool in the northern suburbs of Melbourne was actually, surprisingly good. Some very chunky waves with good shapes for surfing. We both admitted surprise at this.

  15. * COVID-19 and xenophobia: Why outbreaks are often accompanied by racism:
    https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/05/covid-19-and-xenophobia-why-outbreaks-are-often-accompanied-by-racism

    * How COVID-19 Coronavirus Is Uncovering Anti-Asian Racism:
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/02/18/how-covid-19-coronavirus-is-uncovering-anti-asian-racism/#6cd0b04629a6

    * When Xenophobia Spreads Like A Virus:
    https://www.npr.org/2020/03/02/811363404/when-xenophobia-spreads-like-a-virus

    * Coronavirus: The latest disease to fuel mistrust, fear and racism:
    https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-the-latest-disease-to-fuel-mistrust-fear-and-racism-130853

  16. ‘Because it’s overwhelmingly Chinese. Open your eyes.’

    to the Taiwanese, Koreans, Japanese, eastern Russians, and so on. FMD…..Anyhow, I’m not a racist but…..

  24. Sarah Elks @sarahelks
    ·
    1m
    QLD Tourism Minister @katejonesqld accuses the federal govt of duping bushfire victims by “rebadging” $76m fund to help tourism businesses with the coronavirus impact; Federal Minister
    @birmo denies it and says that’s “petty politics” #qldpol #auspol

  25. There’s definitely someone creeping around LNP headquarters late at night amending documents. Sports rorts, Angus Taylor’s dodgy travel figures for N.Sydney Council. What a shady organisation.

  27. Why do The Greens always seek to have the political voting system work in their favout

    I’m not a Green. I don’t give a fig what the Greens may find to their advantage.

    I care about the system. Moving away from PR to single member districts makes the system (representative democracy at whatever level) worse in terms of providing representation for the diversity of opinion in the voting public.

    This move really is all about making the system worse in order to advantage (as they see it) the Labor and Liberal parties in their bid to gain more control over councils – not by winning more support from the public but by diddling the system.

    It’s a bad move that harms the representative nature of these elections, and no one should support this kind of thing.

    Having gone through a whole series of attempts by state governments to arbitrarily change the rules around local government to gain some sort of short term advantage with respect to Sydney/South Sydney break up and amalgamation, and then the rules forced on Sydney city council clearly just to try to get rid of the independent Mayor … it’s just crap, from both Labor and Liberal, where because councils exist at the whim of the State parliament the movers and shakers of the day decide they can stick their fingers in and change things for political advantage.

    It sucks whoever is doing it. All it does is breed cynicism, resentment and distrust, and I’d point out that all these shenanigans around Sydney City Council in particular appear to have driven the actual voters into the arms of independents for what seems like the long term – what was a prize fought over by the ALP and Libs is out of both of their reaches largely, I would guess, because of the stupid games they played.

  29. And are these Australian citizens or foreign nationals?

    It depends on your point of view.

    From a legal point of view, they’re probably Australian citizens, or residents.

    From a Chinese government point of view: once a Chinese citizen, always a Chinese citizen.

    You’d have to be pretty naive not to realize there’s a major Chinese operation going on in Australia.

    It involves outright state spying, threats against relatives still in China, the Chinese media, Chinese political donors (mostly to the Liberals – remember “How to vote the right way”? on those AEC lookalike signs?) , electronic disruption (e.g. Huawei, state sponsored hacking), and much more.

    The No. 1 wealth indicator in Australia, for the average person, is property. It’s the basis of our economy, for better or worse.

    Consider the possibility of a confluence of state sponsored Chinese agents of influence in Australia, the Chinese government’s known attempts to control and influence the Chinese diaspora here, the influx of Chinese business people and political donors into Australia and its politics and government circles, and the overwhelming amount of money coming from China to Australian Chinese residents in order to fund high-priced property purchases, driving the No. 1 wealth indicator beyond the reach of young Australians of multi-generational providence, in favour of recently arrived Chinese people, and tell me it’s all just homegrown racists imagining things.

  30. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, March 6, 2020 at 6:36 pm

    SHY has done the wrong thing. A terrible mistake.’

    The principal at St Kevin’s did exactly the same thing. He is gone. SH-Y should follow his principled lead.

  31. Bushfire Bill @ #1528 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 5:39 pm

    And are these Australian citizens or foreign nationals?

    It depends on your point of view.

    From a legal point of view, they’re probably Australian citizens, or residents.

    From a Chinese government point of view: once a Chinese citizen, always a Chinese citizen.

    You’d have to be pretty naive not to realize there’s a major Chinese operation going on in Australia.

    It involves outright state spying, threats against relatives still in China, the Chinese media, Chinese political donors (mostly to the Liberals – remember “How to vote the right way”? on those AEC lookalike signs?) , electronic disruption (e.g. Huawei, state sponsored hacking), and much more.

    The No. 1 wealth indicator in Australia, for the average person, is property. It’s the basis of our economy, for better or worse.

    Consider the possibility of a confluence of state sponsored Chinese agents of influence in Australia, the Chinese government’s known attempts to control and influence the Chinese diaspora here, the influx of Chibese business people and political donors into Australia and its politics and government circles, and the overwhelming amount of money coming from China to Australian Chinese residents in order to fund high-priced property purchases, driving the No. 1 wealth indicator beyond the reach of young Australians of multi-generational providence, in favour of recently arrived Chinese people, and tell me it’s all just homegrown racists imagining things.

    What homegrown racist imaginings.

  32. RD

    From what has been reported in the media, I have to agree. She appears to have been blinded by her gratitude and loyalty to a person who helped her in her fight and court case with Leyonhjelm.

  34. Scotty from marketing has done the wrong thing waving away questions of his Govt’s corrupt actions.

    Fair minded voters should reject this farcical Govt, but sadly peoples standards have dropped so much in recent times I fear they won’t.

  36. Blinded by her own self-importance more like.

    And then she seeks to justify her stupidity and demand that we all move along – nothing to see.

  39. As someone on the Drum pointed out, the Greens routinely claim the moral high ground.
    They can’t have it both ways.
    The Bush Rat must act now.

  40. If the virus had originated in Europe, or the USA, or UK would there be the same expressions of xenophobia?

    FOR FUCK’S SAKE Horsey, people are dying. There’s a ban on entries from China, Korea and soon Italy – because that’s where the sick people are. Two thousand Australians are already in quarantine.

    And all you can see is racism and xenophobia?

    Talk about “To a hammer everything looks like a nail.”

    To a dopey Green, everything looks like racism.

  41. Circumstances completely different. The person SH-Y provided a reference for at the behest of both him and his wife pleaded guilty. No conviction was recorded. It has not been reported there was a pattern of ongoing domestic violence.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-19/st-kevins-headmaster-stephen-russell-resigns/11980008

    The headmaster of St Kevin’s College in Melbourne has resigned and the school’s dean of sport has been stood down following a Four Corners story about the college’s response to the grooming of a student by a former athletics coach.

    The Toorak school has been in damage control since a Four Corners investigation revealed the headmaster and the sport head provided references for convicted child sex offender Peter Kehoe, but did not support the victim during the court process.
    :::
    Numerous current and former staff, students and parents from St Kevin’s College told Four Corners the school had a history of failing to adequately deal with complaints of inappropriate behaviour.

  42. Morrison is culpable. He allowed people from China to use a self-managed workaround to beat the travel ban.
    He then block Iran but not South Korea and not Italy.
    There are hundreds of people in quarantine right now directly because of Morrison’s failure to manage the border.

  45. Peg

    I know that Greens are never, ever wrong, on principle.

    That aside, the principles are exactly the same: power distributed to the powerful, betrayal, outright hypocrisy, favouring the abuser.

    She should go.

    But she won’t because people like you will continue to back her.

  47. Bushfire Bill @ #1539 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 6:50 pm

    If the virus had originated in Europe, or the USA, or UK would there be the same expressions of xenophobia?

    FOR FUCK’S SAKE Horsey, people are dying. There’s a ban on entries from China, Korea and soon Italy – because that’s where the sick people are. Two thousand are already in quarantine.

    And all you can see is racism and xenophobia?

    Talk about “To a hammer everything looks lime a nail.”

    To a dopey Green, everything looks like racism.

    You really come across as a weak keyboard bully with contributions like that. Pathetic.

  49. FS says:

    Greens and wife bashers same same.

    Of course, none of your fellow travellers had anything to say about this particularly egregious comment of yours.

    omg if a non-Laborite had said “Labor and wife bashers same same.”

    Your hypocrisy and lack of any pretence of impartiality has been obvious since you first posted on it.

    By all means keep banging your righteous drum and expressing your moral outrage.

    Your agenda is transparent.

  50. Pegasus says:
    Friday, March 6, 2020 at 6:22 pm

    If the virus had originated in Europe, or the USA, or UK would there be the same expressions of xenophobia?
    ———————————
    The government should have restricted all inbound travel for anyone that was coming from an infected country from the middle of January at the earliest.

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