Two things

Some rare insights into how preferences behave in unusual circumstances courtesy of the Johnston by-election, and yet more data on issue salience, this time from JWS Research.

Two things:

• At Antony Green’s prompting, the Northern Territory Electoral Commission has published breakdowns of the various candidates’ preferences flows at Saturday’s Johnston by-election, providing measures of the impact of highly unusual preferencing behaviour by the Greens and the Country Labor Party — remembering that the Northern Territory prohibits dissemination of how-to-vote cards is the immediate vicinity of polling booths. Having done the unthinkable and put Labor last, the Greens’ preferences split 56.9-43.1 between Labor and the Territory Alliance, compared with my own rule of thumb that Labor gets 80% of Greens preferences when they are so directed and 75% when no recommendation is made. Note that this is the Territory Alliance rather than the Country Liberal Party, and that Labor’s flow would presumably have been somewhat stronger had it been otherwise. The CLP no less unusually put Labor second, and their preferences went 52.9-47.1 in favour of the Territory Alliance.

• JWS Research has released its latest quarterly True Issues report, confirming the impression of other similar polling that the salience of the environment and climate chnage spiked over summer. Respondents were separately asked to name three issues off the tops of their heads and to pick the five most important issues out of a list of twenty, with confusingly different results – environment reigned supreme in the first case, but in the second it trailed cost of living (which ranked low when unprompted) and health (second in both cases). Perhaps the most revealing point is that environment increased in the prompted question from 33% a year ago to 42%, while immigration and border security fell from 36% to 25%. The federal government was reckoned to be performing well by 28% of respondents, down two since the November survey, and poorly by 35%, up two. The survey was conducted online from a sample of 1000 from February 20-24.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,654 comments on “Two things”

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  2. Don’t let visitors kiss your dogs. 😮

    Pet owners across Sydney have been approaching vets and asking for their animals to be put down amid coronavirus fears.

    It comes after a dog in Hong Kong tested a weak positive for COVID-19 last week and China has seen shelters overflow with abandoned dogs.

    Dr Sam Kovac said it was “harrowing” to receive calls from people discussing the possibility of euthanising their pets in Australia.

    “We didn’t put any of the pets down but instead consulted with them and explained there is no evidence the virus is in the Australian dog population and no evidence that dogs can give it back to people,” Dr Kovac told 9news.com.au.

    A woman wearing a face mask holds her dog, also wearing a face mask, in Guangzhou, Guangdong, China. (EPA)

  4. COVID-19: myth busted and fact checked

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/covid-19:-myth-busted-and-fact-checked/12030674

    The Government has increased travel bans to include South Korea, as the country tries to contain the spread of coronavirus in Australia.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison made the announcement today and says there will also be enhanced screening for travellers coming from Italy.

    Arrivals won’t be able to use the smart gate at airports, will have their temperatures checked, and will be asked more questions when checking in to their flight.

    So what do we know so far, and what questions still remain?

    Guest: Associate Professor Ian Mackay, PhD in virology, University of Queensland

    His blog – Virology Down Under: https://virologydownunder.com/

  7. Our friend with the broken toe that nearly killed her has phoned, distraught. Her daughter and daughter’s girlfriend have been diagnosed with C19.

    Girlfriend symptomless but infected. Daughter in intensive care. Both 25 years old.

    Everyone the girlfriend has come into contact with is being tracked down. She drives an Uber .

  10. BB
    It will be interesting if they make the statistics tomorrow.
    It is starting to look as if it is all too late. It’s here and it is spreading.
    3% for my age group. 15% for our parents. Not good odds.

  13. ‘Lizzie says:
    Thursday, March 5, 2020 at 7:57 pm

    If asymptomatic people are carriers the temperature checks at airports are pretty useless.’

    There is that. There is also the claim that the worse the symptoms the more infective you are. I have seen no proof for this claim.

  14. lizzie

    Don’t let visitors kiss your dogs. 🙂

    Having seen on the farm the sort of rotten putrid stuff dogs will scavenge to eat I early on developed a great aversion to letting dogs lick me 🙂

  18. Boerwar

    You haven’t lived until you have seen a dog lapping up calf scours (diarrhea) from the “source” 🙂 Puts dog slobbering on face in a different light . So yes, nothing personal Mr Dawg but I’d rather not get slobbered on the face.

  21. The problem with that is that he thinks we are so beguiled by him and unaware of his illogicalities that we just accept whatever he says on any given day at face value. Nope.

    Tingle on 7.30 reckons he’s banking on the punters being so overwhelmed with government corruption, so flooded with bad behaviour, so numb to lies and excuses, that they just shrug it off. Sort of a political Gish Gallop.

    “Meh… they’re ALL crooks.”

  25. poroti @ #1217 Thursday, March 5th, 2020 – 8:34 pm

    Boerwar

    You haven’t lived until you have seen a dog lapping up calf scours (diarrhea) from the “source” 🙂 Puts dog slobbering on face in a different light . So yes, nothing personal Mr Dawg but I’d rather not get slobbered on the face.

    I once ‘rescued’ a dog from a convenience store when I was, ahem, in my cups, and the dog’s name tag turned out to have the ph. number of a friend of mine, so he and his dog were successfully reunited. After the happy reunion, at about 2am, I smelled my hands and the distinct odor of fecal matter was apparent, the dog had been eating human shit in the alley behind the store…gawd….the shower was a long one…..

  26. Like all of Morrison’s other funding promises? Better be in the right electorate.

    ‘We will share the costs’: PM pledges virus funding for hospitals, aged care

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has promised to share the burden with state hospitals and aged care operators.

    Scott Morrison has promised to negotiate ‘in good faith’ with state governments and ‘share the burden’ of dealing with coronavirus.

    by Dana McCauley (Age headline)

  27. my other fav dog story relates to marking lambs, the dogs would spend hours scoring the paddock for discarded tails and scrotums/balls….the lambs were not at all happy.

  28. Working farm dogs are disgusting bastards of things, will regularly turn your stomach with their foul behaviour. We used to regularly wash and treat for fleas etc our dogs every couple of weeks or so whereupon they would bolt for the nearest decomposing, utterly flyblown animal carcass in order to roll in it for several minutes, eat some guts etc then come back to us and attempt to lick us. Swift hard kicks was the only reaction to dissuade them that worked.

  30. [‘Alarm has been raised over plans to shut the Houses of Parliament for months in a bid to stop the spread of coronavirus.

    Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has held talks with England’s Chief Medical Officer to discuss plans for if the outbreak gets worse.

    Options floated include holding debates by video link and introducing electronic voting so politicians do not need to travel to Westminster.

    The most drastic suggestion is that the whole Palace of Westminster could be closed, potentially from the Easter recess at the end of this month until September.

    However, MailOnline understands senior officials have voiced concerns that such a move could trigger a chain reaction in offices across the UK – effectively paralysing the country.’]

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8077625/Alarm-plan-close-Parliament-coronavirus-escalates.html

  34. Apparently, businesses everywhere are putting up signs that “No Toilet paper is Stored on the Premises” to placate potential looters.

  35. ‘poroti says:
    Thursday, March 5, 2020 at 8:34 pm

    Boerwar

    You haven’t lived until you have seen a dog lapping up calf scours (diarrhea) from the “source” Puts dog slobbering on face in a different light . So yes, nothing personal Mr Dawg but I’d rather not get slobbered on the face.’

    Grew up on a dairy farm. Hand raised calves…

    While they might have seemed to have lacked both couth and discrimination in the eyes of city peeps, the dogs preferred the yellow chewy ones.

  36. Pet owners across Sydney have been approaching vets and asking for their animals to be put down amid coronavirus fears.

    Canine coronavirus (CCV/CCoV) is also doing the rounds – along with mass hysteria. It’s not related to COVID-19.

  43. citizen @ #1225 Thursday, March 5th, 2020 – 9:03 pm

    Like all of Morrison’s other funding promises? Better be in the right electorate.

    ‘We will share the costs’: PM pledges virus funding for hospitals, aged care

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has promised to share the burden with state hospitals and aged care operators.

    Scott Morrison has promised to negotiate ‘in good faith’ with state governments and ‘share the burden’ of dealing with coronavirus.

    by Dana McCauley (Age headline)

    Haven’t the States been complaining about the snail’s pace that Morrison is forwarding money to them?

  44. Thought my part of Australia was regional enough to be spared from the toilet-paper hysteria. But nope. Had a quick look inside one of the local Coles. None left whatsoever.

    People are stupid.

  46. a r @ #1243 Thursday, March 5th, 2020 – 10:50 pm

    Thought my part of Australia was regional enough to be spared from the toilet-paper hysteria. But nope. Had a quick look inside one of the local Coles. None left whatsoever.

    People are stupid.

    And the things people are stocking up on defies rational thought. Pasta is gone from the shelves and I saw people emptying the shelves of Baked Beans when I did the shopping today, but leaving all the other beans in tins, which you can make delicious food with like Butter Beans, Cannellini Beans and Red Kidney Beans, plus 4 Bean Mix. There was also lots of tins of tuna left and other seafood. Has no one ever heard of Spaghetti Marinara? Of course, all the hand sanitiser, paper towels and toilet paper has disappeared, to the extent that, in the Western Suburbs of Sydney one guy had to be Tasered by the Police after a fight broke out over toilet paper!

    It’s just ‘nuckin’ futs’ as Joe Dirt would say.

  48. in the Western Suburbs of Sydney one guy had to be Tasered by the Police after a fight broke out over toilet paper!

    Seriously? OMG.

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