Two things

Some rare insights into how preferences behave in unusual circumstances courtesy of the Johnston by-election, and yet more data on issue salience, this time from JWS Research.

Two things:

• At Antony Green’s prompting, the Northern Territory Electoral Commission has published breakdowns of the various candidates’ preferences flows at Saturday’s Johnston by-election, providing measures of the impact of highly unusual preferencing behaviour by the Greens and the Country Labor Party — remembering that the Northern Territory prohibits dissemination of how-to-vote cards is the immediate vicinity of polling booths. Having done the unthinkable and put Labor last, the Greens’ preferences split 56.9-43.1 between Labor and the Territory Alliance, compared with my own rule of thumb that Labor gets 80% of Greens preferences when they are so directed and 75% when no recommendation is made. Note that this is the Territory Alliance rather than the Country Liberal Party, and that Labor’s flow would presumably have been somewhat stronger had it been otherwise. The CLP no less unusually put Labor second, and their preferences went 52.9-47.1 in favour of the Territory Alliance.

• JWS Research has released its latest quarterly True Issues report, confirming the impression of other similar polling that the salience of the environment and climate chnage spiked over summer. Respondents were separately asked to name three issues off the tops of their heads and to pick the five most important issues out of a list of twenty, with confusingly different results – environment reigned supreme in the first case, but in the second it trailed cost of living (which ranked low when unprompted) and health (second in both cases). Perhaps the most revealing point is that environment increased in the prompted question from 33% a year ago to 42%, while immigration and border security fell from 36% to 25%. The federal government was reckoned to be performing well by 28% of respondents, down two since the November survey, and poorly by 35%, up two. The survey was conducted online from a sample of 1000 from February 20-24.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,654 comments on “Two things”

Comments Page 26 of 34
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  2. Have spent more time than I care to remember at Ryde Hospital. Scrutineered for Labor at Epping Boys High. Worked at Macquarie Park. All local sites when I lived at Beecroft in Sydney.

    It only takes one symptomless person to breeze through a district and the virus has arrived. No-one meant anything nasty by it.

    They – the carrier(s) and the infected – just lived “business as usual” lives as advised to do by medical “authorities”.

  4. With Covid 19 well and truly out and about and spreading within the Australia; public I have to ask – what is the point of stopping flights from some countries?

    We do actually need some leadership now, Scomo. Panics are a sign of its absence.

  6. It sure has been The Summer That Never Was.

    Drought. Fire. Flood. Plague. Business bankruptcies. Massive wildlife and stock deaths. Tanking ASX. Looming recession.

    And Morrison accepts not one whit of responsibility for any if it. Will not concede even the slightest mistake.

  7. Does anyone have a clue about the goings on at the National Faster Rail Agency?

    I admit to not having paid it a lot of attention on account of the fact that

    a) its set up by a bunch of idiots
    b) run by people who seem to love cosy sinecures
    c) completely broken by design

  10. Socrates
    Without limits on in-bound fights the spread will pick up speed. It shows the folly of not acting sooner but typical Morrison.

  11. Hey, what’s all this about Greens Senator Hanson-Young providing a glowing reference for the Court on behalf of a wife slapping bestie?

    I thought she was all into coming down hard on misogynists and women abusers, even suing them.

    I take on board the possibility that the wife of the wife basher wasn’t a mate, so it was all right, due to the exceptional circumstances (that she wasn’t a mate)?

    How else do you reconcile these totally conflicting attitudes?

    Perhaps Pegasus can help us on this this, possibly by cutting and pasting a library shelf of articles justifying this metaphysical transmogrification of conflicting concepts?

  14. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The government will spend billions of dollars in a bid to avoid Australia’s first recession in three decades, as it prepares to abandon its promised budget surplus say Jennifer Duke and Shane Wright.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-big-will-the-deficit-be-coronavirus-stimulus-package-to-wipe-out-surplus-20200305-p5475j.html
    David Crowe reckons this will just be the start of it!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-s-coronavirus-stimulus-plan-may-be-just-the-start-20200305-p5478v.html
    The AFR says that wage subsidies to prevent small and medium businesses laying off workers are being actively considered as part of the government’s stimulus package.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/jobs-subsidy-plan-to-bust-recession-fears-20200304-p546xp
    “Can Scott Morrison match Kevin Rudd in keeping Australia out of recession in a global crisis?”, ponders Michelle Grattan.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-can-scott-morrison-match-kevin-rudd-in-keeping-australia-out-of-recession-in-a-global-crisis-133084
    Kate Aubusson reports that Epping Boys High School will be closed on Friday after a year 11 student tested positive for coronavirus. Two more separate cases were also confirmed late on Thursday, as health authorities warn the virus cannot be contained and is spreading in the community.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-closes-epping-boys-high-school-20200305-p547dn.html
    In an eminently sensible contribution Professor Bill Botrell says that if we apply the lessons of the HIV response, we can buy time and protect public health until science can deliver the biomedical tools necessary to extinguish the threat posed by the coronavirus.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/our-hiv-lesson-exclude-politicians-and-trust-the-experts-and-the-people-to-confront-coronavirus-20200305-p5476a.html
    Finger pointing about who is to blame only makes it harder for countries to share knowledge about controlling the epidemic says the SMH editorial which says the world must come together to fight the coronavirus.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/world-must-come-together-to-fight-coronavirus-20200305-p547aa.html
    Tony Featherstone writes about how some unscrupulous employers might use the coronavirus crisis to cut costs, boost staff productivity and renegotiate terms with suppliers or take longer to pay them. Then keep those terms in place – or take too long to restore them – when the crisis passes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/beware-epidemic-of-unscrupulous-management-20200305-p54728.html
    The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade was blindsided by the Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s admission he did try to invite Hillsong pastor Brian Houston to the White House. However its top official has claimed the national interest and personal interests of the Prime Minister are “closely linked”, during a Senate estimates hearing yesterday.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6663873/scott-morrisons-interests-closely-linked-to-national-interest-dfat/?cs=14329
    Bridget McKenzie has intervened in the political row over the $100 million sports grants funding affair to reject claims she backdated a key decision when the federal election was called last year. David Crowe writes that she is claiming ignorance of what changes were made by PM&C and/or her own department/advisors.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/unbeknown-to-me-mckenzie-rejects-sports-rorts-back-dating-claim-20200305-p547d4.html
    The more we learn about the sports rorts controversy the more it becomes apparent how deeply embroiled in it the Prime Minister is writes Michelle Pini.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-morrison-government-when-rorting-became-sporting,13660

    “Who do you trust?” Not you, FauxMo writes Kay Lee.
    https://theaimn.com/who-do-you-trust-not-you-fauxmo/
    More money for private schools won’t make Australia’s education fairer, no matter how you split it.
    https://theconversation.com/more-money-for-private-schools-wont-make-australias-education-fairer-no-matter-how-you-split-it-132769
    A surge in asylum claims from Chinese nationals arriving on tourist visas following a government change to the visa system is further proof of the “dire” state of Australia’s migration system, Labor’s shadow home affairs minister, Kristina Keneally, says.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/06/keneally-says-surge-in-visitors-on-tourist-visas-claiming-asylum-exposes-dire-system
    This is the REAL reason we’re stockpiling toilet paper.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/03/04/toilet-paper-buying-why/
    Emma Koehn reports that the chief executive of Eftpos is calling for an overhaul of the regulation of price disclosures for processing tap-and-go card payments in Australia so that the country’s retailers have a genuine opportunity to compare their options.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/small-business/eftpos-ceo-calls-for-tap-and-go-price-transparency-overhaul-20200305-p5474b.html
    A world-first inquiry has recommended the sexual harassment equivalent of Fair Work’s anti-bullying regime and wants greater powers to investigate workplaces.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/sexual-harassment-inquiry-calls-for-broad-investigative-powers-20200305-p5474d
    Senior judges at the international criminal court have authorised an investigation into alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Afghanistan, overturning an earlier rejection of the inquiry.
    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2020/mar/05/senior-icc-judges-authorise-afghanistan-war-crimes-inquiry
    Ben Butler reports that the ACCC says it is monitoring the planned closure of Australian Associated Press for “potential issues” as the Australian media industry scrambles to ready itself for life without the 85-year-old newswire.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/mar/05/aap-closure-competition-watchdog-says-it-is-monitoring-newswires-demise
    We relied on AAP when Guardian Australia launched. Holding power to account just got a whole lot harder says Lenore Taylor.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/commentisfree/2020/mar/05/we-relied-on-aap-when-guardian-australia-launched-holding-power-to-account-just-got-a-whole-lot-harder
    Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp and fellow media giant Nine have been accused of closing news agency, Australian Associated Press, to damage their smaller competitors.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/03/05/news-corp-nine-aap-accusations/
    The growing number of Newstart recipients who are sick or have disabilities face “unrealistic” mutual obligations to find work and sometimes have their impairments exacerbated while struggling on welfare payments, a new research paper says.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/05/sick-or-disabled-people-on-newstart-face-unrealistic-obligations-to-find-work
    And it’s goodbye from Elizabeth Warren.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/elizabeth-warren-suspends-2020-democratic-white-house-bid-20200306-p547e7.html
    Matthew Knott tells us why Michael Bloomberg’s expensive failure is Joe Biden’s gain. Fairly $imple I’d say!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/why-michael-bloomberg-s-expensive-failure-is-joe-biden-s-gain-20200305-p54717.html
    According to The New York Times it’s easy to work out why Trump has played down economic damage from the coronavirus and dismissed Wall Street plunge – they threaten to undermine the most effective story he tells about his presidency.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/trump-s-economic-cheerleading-faces-a-huge-test-20200305-p54718.html
    Netanyahu has had a bit of a dummy spit after failing to secure a majority.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/netanyahu-angry-for-falling-short-of-majority-after-israel-s-election-20200305-p54709.html
    Have some fun doing this Name the Tory quiz.
    https://theaimn.com/name-that-tory-a-quiz/

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    David Pope

    Jim Pavlidis

    Andrew Dyson

    Simon Letch

    Matt Golding




    Mark David



    A rather weak effort from Leak.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/677a429db1215feaf386ca71b79b4658?width=1024

    From the US








  16. Have Morrison and Hunt already politicised coronavirus to the detriment of sensible action?

    The coronavirus response must be depoliticised. There can be no role for politicians in “leading” the community response. In the 1980s, prime minister Bob Hawke and opposition leader Andrew Peacock took the wise decision to withdraw completely from public involvement and commentary on the HIV response. They knew political leaders were fatally compromised by being political leaders. At any given time, half the population has no time for the prime minister of the day, and the other half rejects anything the opposition leader has to say.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/our-hiv-lesson-exclude-politicians-and-trust-the-experts-and-the-people-to-confront-coronavirus-20200305-p5476a.html

  17. ‘Dangerous lies’: Experts slam Trump suggestion coronavirus patients ‘go to work’ and ‘get better’

    Running roughshod over the advice of trained medical professionals and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, President Donald Trump Wednesday night suggested to millions of Fox News viewers that people infected with coronavirus could still go to work and recover, comments that were immediately condemned as irresponsible and dangerous.

    “A lot of people will have this and it’s very mild. They’ll get better very rapidly,” Trump told Fox‘s Sean Hannity. “They don’t even see a doctor, they don’t even call a doctor. You never hear about those people.”

    “Trump has had briefings from the nation’s best doctors and scientists on COVID-19 and he still spouts total, dangerous bullshit.”
    —Peter Gleick

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/dangerous-lies-experts-slam-trump-suggestion-coronavirus-patients-go-to-work-and-get-better/

  18. Trump’s erratic messaging on coronavirus is creating a ‘communications nightmare’ for health officials: report

    According to POLITICO’s Joanne Kenen, when it comes to the coronavirus, President Trump “is using his metaphorical black Sharpie to draw his own mental map” of the growing crisis, and it’s making the work of health officials much more difficult.

    Kenen cites the example of Trump’s questioning of the World Health Organization’s estimate that says the global mortality rate for the coronavirus at 3.4 percent. In an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity, Trump said he thinks the 3.4 percent figure is a “false number.”

    When it comes to the outbreak’s seriousness, White House officials “have been all over the place,” according to Kenen. “The president has accused Democrats and the media of hyping the virus — one that’s killed thousands worldwide — to hurt his reelection prospects, calling the criticism ‘their new hoax,’” he writes. “And he’s repeatedly hinted that a vaccine is coming soon, despite being told directly and repeatedly that in the most optimistic scenario it’s at least a year away.”

    Experts are calling the mixed messaging a “communications nightmare” for health officials

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/trumps-erratic-messaging-on-coronavirus-is-creating-a-communications-nightmare-for-health-officials-report/

  20. On the matter of countries closing their borders, my daughter’s mother -in -law (German), was due to leave yesterday on a tour of holy sites in Israel, but tour is now cancelled as Israel has closed its borders to people from Germany, France, Switzerland , Spain… C 19 cases in Germany now over 350.

  21. Fulvio Sammut @ #1260 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 1:51 am

    Hey, what’s all this about Greens Senator Hanson-Young providing a glowing reference for the Court on behalf of a wife slapping bestie?

    I thought she was all into coming down hard on misogynists and women abusers, even suing them.

    I take on board the possibility that the wife of the wife basher wasn’t a mate, so it was all right, due to the exceptional circumstances (that she wasn’t a mate)?

    How else do you reconcile these totally conflicting attitudes?

    Perhaps Pegasus can help us on this this, possibly by cutting and pasting a library shelf of articles justifying this metaphysical transmogrification of conflicting concepts?

    The Polit Bureau at Greens central do not have that as one of her KPIs. So, my guess is that it will be crickets, comrade.

  22. ‘Do you have a mirror?’ Donald Trump Jr goes down in flames trying to smear Hunter Biden for nepotism

    President Donald Trump’s eldest son circulated a report smearing Joe Biden’s younger son, and left other social media users wondering whether he had the capacity of self-awareness.

    Donald Trump Jr. shared a Daily Caller report claiming that Hunter Biden touted his political connections last year while trying to land a job teaching drug policy courses at the University of California, Los Angeles School of Law.

    “It’s almost like the whole Biden family is entity dependent on Joe holding public office?” Trump Jr. tweeted.

    – Oh my goodness, do you have a mirror or a family picture handy?
    – I can’t believe the son of an elected official might try to make money off his connection to the elected official.
    – Nothing makes me laugh as hard as the guy whose name is literally his father’s full name calling other people out for nepotism.
    – – Ivanka works at the WH
    – Jared works at the WH
    – Eric and Don Jr still do foreign business
    – Barr’s son-in-law works at the WH
    – Barr’s daughter works at Treasury
    – Rudy’s son works at the WH

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/do-you-have-a-mirror-donald-trump-jr-goes-down-in-flames-trying-to-smear-hunter-biden-for-nepotism/

  24. Thanks BK.

    “Can Scott Morrison match Kevin Rudd in keeping Australia out of recession in a global crisis?”, ponders Michelle Grattan.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-can-scott-morrison-match-kevin-rudd-in-keeping-australia-out-of-recession-in-a-global-crisis-133084

    Now is Labor’s chance, a once in a lifetime chance, to undo the prevailing narrative that the Liberals are better economic managers. And they can defend their record in govt into the bargain. Is Albo up to the task?

  26. Jim Chalmers made a valiant effort to “undo the prevailing narrative” on 7.30, in the teeth of Leigh’s determination to keep him away from “excuses”.

  29. I have had the same reaction as this. Morrison chooses which ‘crisis’ to publicise, and he’s wrong.

    It is a global emergency that has already killed on a mass scale and threatens to send millions more to early graves. As its effects spread, it could destabilise entire economies and overwhelm poorer countries lacking resources and infrastructure. But this is the climate crisis, not the coronavirus. Governments are not assembling emergency national plans and you’re not getting push notifications transmitted to your phone breathlessly alerting you to dramatic twists and developments from South Korea to Italy.

    More than 3,000 people have succumbed to coronavirus yet, according to the World Health Organization, air pollution alone – just one aspect of our central planetary crisis – kills seven million people every year. There have been no Cobra meetings for the climate crisis, no sombre prime ministerial statements detailing the emergency action being taken to reassure the public. In time, we’ll overcome any coronavirus pandemic. With the climate crisis, we are already out of time, and are now left mitigating the inevitably disastrous consequences hurtling towards us.

    While coronavirus is understandably treated as an imminent danger, the climate crisis is still presented as an abstraction whose consequences are decades away.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/05/governments-coronavirus-urgent-climate-crisis

  30. Morning all. Thanks BK. The economy is headed for recession unless a much bigger stimulus in government spending than proposed by Scomo is done quickly. In the GFC a stimulus of 2% of GDP was applied. The virus is projected to drop GDP by around 2%, best case 0.5%. So the stimulus needs to be around $30 billion, in areas with low leakage to outside the country. Measures announced so far are way short of what is needed. Boosting business confidence will do nothing.

  31. It’s like something reported in The Shovel, or The Onion.

    Dom@DomDiFurio
    ·
    5h
    Tito’s Vodka has spent the last 24 hours explaining to people that it *cannot* be used as a replacement for hand sanitizer.

    God bless Texas.

    Vodka is a sought-after remedy for many things, but the coronavirus panic-driven lack of hand sanitizer is forcing one Texas vodka brand to clarify its limitations.

    Austin-based Tito’s Vodka appears to have spent the last 24 hours notifying a number of fans on Twitter that its spirits don’t contain high enough concentrations of alcohol to properly fend off germs.

    “As soon as we saw the incorrect articles and social posts, we wanted to set the record straight,” a spokesperson for Tito’s said in a statement provided to The Dallas Morning News. “While it would be good for business for our fans to use massive quantities of Tito’s for hand sanitizer, it would be a shame to waste the good stuff, especially if it doesn’t sanitize (which it doesn’t, per the CDC).”

    https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/05/no-you-cant-use-titos-vodka-to-make-homemade-hand-sanitizer/

  32. Trump’s lawsuits against news outlets could blow up in his face and reveal his campaign’s secrets: op-ed

    President Trump’s reelection campaign is suing the Washington Post for defamation — an action that comes on the heels of another defamation lawsuit against the New York Times, both having to do with stories reporting on the campaign’s alleged ties with Russia. But according to the Washington Post’s Erik Wemple, the lawsuits open up an opportunity for the outlets on the receiving end of the suits to “dig in and proceed straight to the discovery stage of the litigation.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/trumps-lawsuits-against-news-outlets-could-blow-up-in-his-face-and-reveal-his-campaigns-secrets-op-ed/

  34. I don’t remember there being any of the kind panic with SARS that we’re seeing with coronavirus. I reckon social media has a lot to answer for.

  35. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    And for some more comedy material —

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/scott-morrisons-just-a-manager-yes-but-hes-good/news-story/058de42fbdc74e5381911d8a40a6faeb

    No matter what you may think about Scott Morrison, you know he is diligent, hardworking and determined to stay right where he is. Not much about his government is outstanding but this government contains only cleanskins and not even a whiff of anything untoward can be found.

  36. Bushfire Bill @ #1255 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 12:05 am

    It sure has been The Summer That Never Was.

    Drought. Fire. Flood. Plague. Business bankruptcies. Massive wildlife and stock deaths. Tanking ASX. Looming recession.

    And Morrison accepts not one whit of responsibility for any if it. Will not concede even the slightest mistake.

    But is the best person to manage it all, apparently. 😐

  38. Not much about his government is outstanding but this government contains only cleanskins and not even a whiff of anything untoward can be found.

    Hasn’t this has been ever heard the names of Angus Taylor, Stuart Robert, Bridget Mackenzie, Barnaby Joyce, Christian Porter, Josh Frydenburg, and the list goes on and on through the front and back bench of rorters of the Public Purse and raiders of the Treasury for their own personal political benefit!

  39. Fess

    I believe social media has played a role. But what is really at play here?
    People are being paranoid and not trusting the information. Which could be interpreted as not trusting our govt.
    For me people buying so much in bulk, looks kinda selfish.

  40. nath

    Nasty nath comes on duty. Why don’t you use some of your patronising venom for Morrison, who is currently making a dog’s breakfast of everything he touches.

  41. Well, what do you know, Little Lib, ‘nath’, has turned his attack on Jim Chalmers. What a predictable grub he is.

  42. Vic:

    Lack of trust in govt definitely, but it’s more than that. Media hype is one thing, but it’s escalating and spreading much quicker through social media.

  43. Confessions- indeed. I lived in Singapore at the time of SARS, and it was an epicentre of the disease You had to have you temperature taken each morning (usually in a public place) and get a daily sticker to wear. Shops and hotels had a temperature sensors at the door. Airports had thermal sensors. All very calm and orderly…and effective.
    There was no grandstanding or panic.

  44. Be honest, folks. Did Scomo’s “We’ll get through this together” make you feel more confident in the future, or did your heart sink?

  45. Gerard Thomas@gerardthomas_1
    · 12h

    12,150 people stuck on the Cashless Debit Card trial. You should be shocked that #Estimates hears that this patronising ‘trial’ has cost $50 million over the last 5 years. What a waste and a tragedy for those subject to this appalling program. #Auspol @ACOSS

  46. torchbearer:

    I travelled overseas, including some Asian countries during the SARS outbreak and didn’t even think of it. And in those countries I went to I don’t recall people running around in face masks or putting their dogs in face masks!

  48. Yesterday there were more new COVID-19 cases in each of Italy, France, and Germany than there were in China (that’s each of them, not put together). Spain looks like being the next domino.

    The epicentre is shifting to Europe (or has already shifted).

  49. KayJay @ #1284 Friday, March 6th, 2020 – 8:43 am

    Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    And for some more comedy material —

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/scott-morrisons-just-a-manager-yes-but-hes-good/news-story/058de42fbdc74e5381911d8a40a6faeb

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    No matter what you may think about Scott Morrison, you know he is diligent, hardworking and determined to stay right where he is. Not much about his government is outstanding but this government contains only cleanskins and not even a whiff of anything untoward can be found.

    I wonder who writes his material?

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