Call of the board: the territories

Zooming in on the federal election results for the three seats of the Australian Capital Territory and the two of the Northern Territory, all of which were won by Labor.

Wherein we finally wrap up the Call of the Board series, a slowly unfolding state-by-state round-up every seat result from last year’s federal election. Here we tie up the loose ends of the territories, where Labor achieved a clean sweep of five seats – an essentially foregone conclusion for the Australian Capital Territory (which went from two to three seats at this election), but a strong result for them in the Northern Territory (which may be set to lose its second at the next). Previous episodes of the series dealt with Sydney (here and here), regional New South Wales, Melbourne, regional Victoria, south-east Queensland, regional Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia and Tasmania.

Solomon (Labor 3.1%; 3.0% swing to CLP): The always marginal seat that covers Darwin has only gone the way of the winning party once out of the last four elections (in 2013), this time returning Luke Gosling after he gained it for Labor in 2016. Gosling’s 6.0% winning margin off a 7.4% swing in 2016 was the clearest win in the history of a highly marginal seat, the previous record having been Dave Tollner’s 2.8% win for the Country Liberal Party in 2004. This meant he had enough change to record the seat’s second-biggest margin even after a 3.0% swing back to the Country Liberals. As the map to the right illustrates, the pattern of swings in the seat reflected broader themes from the election: the affluent area around the city centre swung to Labor, but the lower-income suburbs of the north went the other way, and the more conservative new suburbia of Palmerston went further still.

Lingiari (Labor 5.5%; 2.7% swing to CLP): Warren Snowdon retained the remainder-of-NT seat of Lingiari, which he has held without interruption since 2001, his closest shave in that time being a 0.9% margin in 2013. The swings in the two Northern Territory seats have been closely matched at the last election, with a 7.5% blowout in Lingiari in 2016 followed by a 2.7% correction this time. There have been occasions in the past where swings varied widely between Alice Springs and Katherine on the one hand and the remote communities in the other, but not this time.

Bean (Labor 7.5%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): The ACT’s new third seat was created entirely from territory that was formerly in the Canberra electorate, whose member Gai Brodtmann did not seek re-election. David Smith, who had previously filled Katy Gallagher’s Senate vacancy when she fell foul of section 44 in May 2018, had no trouble holding Bean for Labor in the face of a slight swing. Left-wing independent Jamie Christie scored a creditable 8.3%, contributing to solid drops on the primary vote for both major parties.

Canberra (Labor 17.1%; 4.1% swing to Labor): The Canberra electorate covers the central third of the capital, and might be regarded as the true “new” seat since it drew territory from both of the previous electorates. Like Darwin, Canberra offered a miniature reflection of national trend in that the city’s inner area moved solidly further to the left, while the suburbs swung to the Liberals. This was reflected in a 4.6% primary vote increase for the Greens, reducing the gap with the Liberals to 27.8% to 23.3%. This is the lowest yet recorded in an ACT seat, but with the Liberal how-to-vote directing preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens, they would probably have remained out of contention if they had made up the difference. With the departure of Gai Brodtmann, its new Labor member is Alicia Payne, who dropped 2.0% on the primary vote to 40.5%.

Fenner (Labor 10.6%; 1.3% swing to Liberal): Labor’s Andrew Leigh suffered a slight swing from similar primary vote numbers to 2016, the main disturbance being the appearance of the United Australia Party with 4.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,398 comments on “Call of the board: the territories”

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  1. We’ve gone from waving Wuhanese through our airports with only rudimentary checks to closing down all flights from China. This is because it became known that the symptomless infected could pass on the virus. Simply checking people’s temperature was no guarantee.

    I dont reckon. I reckon this knowledge was already out there or strongly suspected… the very relaxed early advice being given (especially wrt schools) was simple incompetence… or Health Authorities taking into consideration xenophobia concerns… which I would argue is also incompetence. It took them a whole week to fix it and say school kids SHOULD stay home (another few days till it went to MUST) – due to a reluctance to admit they were wrong.

    I personally think the government is now over-reacting. But I am not as sure of that as I was when they were being too relaxed (again – wrt schools).

  2. There’s a Westminister convention that holds that the Attorney should protect the judiciary from the mostly unwarranted flak it sometimes receives following controversial judgments – eg, Mabo, Wik, the recent Johns/Love case. The main reason underpinning this convention (there are others) is that the judiciary is justifiably reluctant to argue its own cause in the public sphere. Like so many other trashed conventions, blame can be sheeted home to the Tories. Look, for instance, at what the then leader of the Country Party, Fischer, said following Mabo No. 2 (and his response was measured compared to others):

    [‘I’m not going to apologise for the 200 years of white progress in this country. I will take on and fight the guilt industry all the way. The ramifications of Mabo may place in jeopardy so many mining projects across the Northern Territory and Western Australia … the Coalition will seek to negotiate a solution. At the end of the day, if no solution is forthcoming, we will legislate to provide the required certainty.’]

    Where was the then Attorney, Williams, when the High Court was under considerable pressure? He should’ve been out there supporting not the decision per se but explaining the role of the judiciary and its right to determine, in this case, the common law.

    Fast forward to the Johns/Love case. This is what the Porter had to say:

    [‘…the government would now consider deportations through another head of power. Three could be possible – the race power, the immigration power, and the nationhood power…’]

    This is the man who thinks he’s prime ministerial material, a man who was the WA Attorney before coming to Canberra yet who not only failed miserably to protect the High Court (even though he himself had misgivings about its decision) but also (along with Dutton) saying that he’ll seek other heads of power in an attempt to thwart the HC’s decision. This mob’s a disgrace, corrupt to the core, authoritarian to their bootstraps and must be got rid of before they further wreck the polity in Trumpian style.

  3. BB

    I doubt I am the only one who doesn’t take you seriously despite your self-described magnificent contribution to PB. Was the pond over the other side too small to contain your ego?

    I look forward to your incredibly scathing wet lettuce response, one I will be happy to let just hang there with no response from me.

  4. Pegasus

    I know you prefer to remain a mysterious shadow, but I found your information about your earlier connection with anarchists very revealing, when seen against your current attacks against the “duopoly”. (I now add the compulsory: this is not a personal attack, it’s a comment.)

  5. BB

    I doubt I am the only one who doesn’t take you seriously despite your self-described magnificent contribution to PB.

    When have I EVER claimed to have made any kind of “magnificent contribution” to this blog?

    You’re imagining things again Horsey, hearing voices, as you do often.

  6. lizzie

    No disclaimer required.

    As I revealed, my extent of contact with anarchists was one – my husband – not plural. This relationship with one has not coloured my view re the political duopoly.

    My husband voted Labor then Greens, now a Greens party member

    My historical and current voting pattern …. Labor….Democrats…Greens…now a member of the Greens.

    It has been a gradual and mutual evolution. on our life journey together.

    When I first came to PB pre-2010, and then for several years, I advocated an alliance (of whatever sort) with Labor. That went done like a lead ballooon, didn’t it.

    Now I work towards multiparty governance with a dream of a proportional representation system in the lower house, both at the federal level and the state level.

    Currently, a focus of mine in Victoria, is a campaign against Labor’s anti-democratic push to have single-member wards in all local councils.

    I would have expected this from the Liberals but not the supposedly ‘progressive’ Andrews government.

    This is what ordinary citizens have to push back against.

  7. The Wu Tang story on Stan is a real treat. Get into it. Wu Tang Clan aint nothin to fuck with.

    Also. Don’t forget to diversify your bonds.

  9. Pegasus

    Thank you for answering. I haven’t yet decided whether I support proportional representation, probably because of some of the weirdos we have acquired in fed politics (and possibly some even worse in state that I’m not aware of).

  11. Simon Katich @ #146 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 12:42 pm

    P1 and others in the effected areas…

    Fences. Any assistance being offered on re-fencing? Not just to keep stock in…. but to keep them out of bushland while it regenerates?

    Yes, “Blaze Aid” will assist in repairing fences. But they basically provide just the material and some Labor. I have heard they are not actually very experienced at fencing, so you have to provide the necessary expertise.

    Also, they will not do posts – just star pickets and wire. So you have to do the support and corner posts before they will come and do the rest. We contacted them, but once we found that out we had to give up on the idea – because at the moment we don’t have the money to do the posts 🙁

  12. Kronomex:

    C@tmomma,
    Do you realise that by using, “…Oh, and I’m sorry I have feelings, obviously you don’t.” that you might set off another row. If you had just finished at, “Now, can you just let it go, for all our sakes?” the matter may well have finished there.

    Some people thrive on conflict and drama.

  13. I’m posting this whole comment by Gadfly because it encapsulates so much of the Stuart Robert modus operandi.

    Pensioners were excited to get letters last month from Centrelink asking for details of their “account-based income stream/s”.

    After spending hours of research working out what is meant by “account-based income stream/s”, it turns out, basically, to be payments from superannuation funds.

    The information had to be given to Centrelink by February 6, otherwise “your payment may be stopped”. Come the first week of February, though, the myGov and Services Australia websites responsible for handling the review weren’t functioning. This is puzzling, even amazing, since the responsible minister, Stuart Robert, is an internet whiz who spends massive amounts of his time online, running up a jaw-dropping internet bill on the taxpayers’ dime.

    The minister, of course, paid it all back – after the government sent him a bill for $37,975 in excess usage charges.

    On the myGov site, pensioners who began to type in their information found words were arranged backwards. The site itself was replete with curious spelling requiring the assistance of translators – Allocated Pension, for example, was “Allpicated Pesnion”.

    If pensioners couldn’t make things happen on the internet, they were told to go in to a Centrelink office – filled, no doubt, with people crawling up the walls and eating government furniture after waiting the better part of a day.

    The contact page on myGov suggests concerns and questions be emailed to Centrelink. Advice that would have been helpful, had there been an identifiable email address anywhere handy.

    By now, the February 6 deadline had passed, and panicked citizens were madly jabbing at their keyboards trying to transfer their income stream information, in fear of Mr Robert cancelling their pension. Miraculously when some did get through to the “entry page”, they were told they need not have bothered: “You do not have an outstanding review to complete.”

    And this is the government that is abolishing red tape and downgrading policy advice – all in the name of making “service delivery” a top-notch priority.

  15. A twitter spat going on, mostly made up of hot air…

    Mathias Cormann
    @MathiasCormann
    · 20h
    Are you for real! I speak with a German accent, so you accuse me of being a Nazi? You are absolutely despicable @PaulBongiorno . You clearly do not know what you are talking about. This is a disgrace and you should apologise. https://twitter.com/PaulBongiorno/status/1228187171636408323

    …

    Daniel Best
    @20thCenturyDan
    ·
    2h
    Didn’t you stand, applaud, shake the hand and congratulate Fraser Anning after his ‘Final solution’ speech in the Senate? didnt you direct the #LNP senators to vote for Pauline Hanson’s ‘It’s Ok to be white’ motion?

    You’re in no position to scream now mate.

  16. lizzie @ #148 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 12:49 pm

    It was said some time ago that when people rushed to donate money to the Red Cross (and others) immediately after the fires around Sydney began, they wanted to help those whom they saw every evening in the news, expecting money to go quickly and directly. It’s not happening, even from our merciful Morrison, all standing back and saying “ask the states”, or worse, “You haven’t been affected enough”. Disaster made more disastrous. 🙁

    Yes, indeed. Perhaps it is just particularly true of the people near us (because we are all so remote) but we all feel a bit forgotten down here. It’s like people saw the news, and donated money, and then assumed it was all over because it stopped being on the news.

    Even our friends and family (most of whom still live in Sydney) seem surprised when we remind them we are still in the middle of an unfolding crisis. We still can’t plan anything more than a couple of days ahead.

    We cannot yet see when this is going to end. There are not even any preliminary dates yet for many things to be fixed – roads, bridges, other vital infrastructure, tourist attractions, national parks re-opening, etc etc. No-one has a clue.

  17. But it’s not a cult 😆

    A Florida man whose family cannot be with him during his hours-long weekly dialysis treatments is upset with medical staff who say he can’t bring a lifesize cutout of President Trump.

    Nelson Gibson of Port St. Lucie, told local ABC affiliate WBPF that he at first only brought a photo of Trump as a comfort item during his treatments.

    “It just feels like bringing something from home to make you comfortable,” Gibson said.

    No one complained about the photo, according to Gibson. Then he started bringing a small cardboard cutout of himself standing next to Trump, which staff also did not complain about.

    Gibson said he then began bringing a life-size cutout of the president with him to treatment. While he brought the life-size version with him multiple times, he says last Tuesday he faced a complaint from staffers at the Fresenius Kidney Care.

    “They told me it was too much and it wasn’t a rally,” Gibson told WBPF.

    Gibson complained that the Trump cutout is not disruptive and he does not understand why it is not allowed. He stopped going for treatment over the incident.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/news/483204-florida-man-complains-after-dialysis-center-prevents-him-from-bringing-trump

  18. My vote is locked up in a Blue Ribbon ”Liberal” seat and doesn’t count. I’m all in favour of proportional representation or Mixed Member Proportional (MMP). Most policies with proportional representation have a threshold to elect members, typically around 4%, which would keep out most of the ratbags.

  19. Gibson complained that the Trump cutout is not disruptive and he does not understand why it is not allowed. He stopped going for treatment over the incident.

    ___________________________

    The Darwin effect in operation.

  21. peg

    ‘Currently, a focus of mine in Victoria, is a campaign against Labor’s anti-democratic push to have single-member wards in all local councils. ‘

    On the same page as this one! Too many good candidates don’t get a gig because they’re in a highly contested ward.

  22. Player One @ #169 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 12:56 pm

    Confessions @ #166 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 1:41 pm

    Gibson complained that the Trump cutout is not disruptive and he does not understand why it is not allowed. He stopped going for treatment over the incident

    He should send a cardboard cutout of himself in for the weekly dialysis treatment.

    Yes, then the staff can pretend to put the patient in a chair and then pretend to hook it up. And subsequently when it shows no sign of life, they can cremate it, return the ashes and charge the patient for the service.

  27. Mr Newbie @ #161 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 1:26 pm

    Kronomex:

    C@tmomma,
    Do you realise that by using, “…Oh, and I’m sorry I have feelings, obviously you don’t.” that you might set off another row. If you had just finished at, “Now, can you just let it go, for all our sakes?” the matter may well have finished there.

    Some people thrive on conflict and drama.

    Others are just plain nasty.

  29. frednk @ #163 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 1:33 pm

    George Calombaris tried to make screwing the workers part of the race to the bottom and he lost out.

    Honest businesses can now once again play on a level field.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/chef-says-city-s-soul-in-peril-fears-zombies-after-calombaris-fall-20200214-p540we.html

    Don’t forget that he was at the forefront of the Coalition’s campaign to destroy weekend Penalty Rates because he whined that they made his business(es) virtually unviable and he questioned if he could continue to open, especially on Public Holidays, if the Coalition government didn’t do something about them.

    All at the same time as he was ripping off his workers and living in a Toorak Georgian mansion.

  31. ‘Desert Qlder says:
    Saturday, February 15, 2020 at 2:22 pm

    The Northern Territory Greens will be preferencing the racist, nuclear power supporting parties in the upcoming Johnston by-election, putting Labor last.’

    THE FUCKING GREENS FUCKING DO IT A-FUCKING AGAIN!

    Put Labor last, thereby helping the LNP, the Party that opposed land rights, the Party that worked with the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments to cut hundreds of millions from (especially) remote Indigenous funding programs, the Party that Federally is trying to alienate (literally) Indigenous Australians, the Party that is muzzling both the Indigenous advisory groups on the Voice and Recognition in the Constitution, the Party that is now arguing that the failure to Close the Gap is because Indigenous people lack accountability so to do.

  37. The Greens are getting a hammering from their supporters for their decision.

    It is an ominous portent of the future of the Greens under their new leader.

  43. Katie Couric says Bloomberg’s campaign has hired an expert on narcisism who will work with comedy writers to develop attack lines and advertising against Trump. Yes!!

    #RealTime

  45. Wandering the internet, as you do, I came across the British Polling Council’s web site.
    http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org

    From their home page:

    The objectives of the Council are to ensure standards of disclosure that provide consumers of survey results that enter the public domain with an adequate basis for judging the reliability and validity of the results.

    It’s been 9 months since our federal election, and I wonder if federal polls will ever recover their lost esteem or relevance, or even whether they should. But it raises the question of whether Australia has a similar organisation, or if there are moves by anyone to establish such. Searching on I did find this though.

    September 19, 2019, 5:35 p.m.
    …
    YouGov is a founding member of the British Polling Council and believes in its values of transparency and methodological rigour. Unfortunately, there is currently no industry organization that represents the active polling industry in Australia.
    …
    Several other companies have agreed in principle to establish this council and an announcement will be made in due course. We have also consulted several appropriately qualified academics to assist the industry in meeting community expectations.

    https://au.yougov.com/news/2019/09/19/yougov-supports-establishing-australian-polling-co/
    Has anyone heard such an announcement?

    And back at the BPC’s website, I also spotted this intriguing snippet, in their analysis of the UK’s pre-election polling accuracy.

    These patterns are consistent with the long-term trend for the polls to over-state Labour and under-state Tory support, but the size of the errors were so small that this did not prevent the polls correctly predicting the overall outcome of the election.

    http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/the-performance-of-the-polls-in-the-2019-general-election/

    I have to wonder if a similar trend is active here.

  47. Confessions @ #193 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 2:44 pm

    Kronomex @ #188 Saturday, February 15th, 2020 – 11:36 am

    Confessions @ 1.41 p.m.

    Thanks a bloody heap! I almost choked on my ice coffee.

    It’s always Florida too.

    The heat and their age, not a good combination for mental faculties. *sarcasm alert*

    Though I paused to wonder what that same man would do if someone came in with a life size Barack Obama cardboard cut-out and sat next to him?

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