First up, please note that immediately below this post is a new entry on developments in Queensland, which include one and possibly two looming state by-elections. With that out of the way, a brief collection of polling and preselection news:
• In the wake of a contentious poll on the subject for the Institute of Public Affairs, The West Australian has published a WA-only survey on attitudes towards celebrating Australia Day on January 26, conducted by Perth market research firm Painted Dog Research. This found 65% support for maintaining the current date with 21% opposed, breaking down to 55-26 among those aged 18 to 39, 67-20 among those 40 to 59, and 78-14 among those 60 and over. Although substantial, the headline figure is narrower than the 71-11 margin recorded by the Dynata poll for the IPA, which primed respondents with two leading questions on being proud of Australia. This poll was conducted from 842 respondents drawn from an online panel, with no field work dates provided.
• Cory Bernardi has followed through on his announcement last year that he would resign to the Senate, which means his South Australian seat returns to a nominee of the Liberal Party, for which he won the seat from the top of the ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The Australian ($) reports the matter will be decided on February 1, from a field including Morry Bailes, managing partner at Tindall Gask Bentley Lawyers and former president of the Law Council of Australia; state upper house MP Andrew McLachlan; and Michael van Dissel, former state party treasurer. Bailes has the support of conservatives including Mathias Cormann and South Australian federal MPs Tony Pasin and Nicolle Flint, which is presumably good to have.
• Heavy duty psephological pundit Mark the Ballot examines the deficiencies of polling before the May federal election, to the extent that the industry’s lack of transparency makes the matter knowable. The thrust of the analysis is that the pollsters’ models were “not complex enough to adequately overcome the sampling frame problems”, the latter reflecting the fact that surveying methods in the modern age cannot plausibly claim to produce genuinely random samples of the voting population. As well as the models by which the pollsters convert their data into vote shares, this lack of “complexity” may equally arise from herding, the unacknowledged use of smoothing techniques such as rolling averages, and over-use of the same respondents in online panels.
sprocket_
Where I am in Waterloo, we are now seeing many Chinese people, including children with masks. this is unusual here too. Although I notice that none of our Chinese neighbours of more than a decade are doing this.
We also discussed masks at work today. When I am mainland China, Taiwan, Japan or Hong Kong, people on the street wear masks. but I never see academics or researchers with masks. Perhaps because masks prevent you spreading infection to others, not the other way around. May be if you are sick, you just stay home.
Morrison has a few bullet pointed shopping lists in his presentation today, or should I say pitch.
One interesting one was the ‘electric car policy’ that he ‘would have more to say on’.
Betcha it’s a tax on electric cars, as they don’t pay fuel excise.
One part of the Morrison talkfest today that interested me was his response to the questioning re sports fraud and any involvement by Morrison and or his office.
He said “All we did was provide information based on the representation made to us.”
Who is “ us”? Morrison directly or the PMO ?
To whom did “ us “ provide information ? To Sports Australia or the office of the Minister ? If it was to the office of the Minister then why was that done given Sports Australia was supposedly the final decision maker ?
If “us” provided information to Sports Australia from clubs seeking grants then why was that necessary given every organisation seeking a grant had to provide a detailed written application ? Why would it be necessary for “ us “ to provide any further information at all given the process was supposedly arms length from the government ?
nCoV19 is yet another national leadership shambles.
I love those lefty unisex change rooms because they make good sense from an efficiency point of view.
The NBN disaster is now entirely down to the voters for being such gullible prats, three times in a row.
It could have been saved if we had voted Labor in 2016. But we didn’t, and then tripled down on the wreck job by re-electing the spivs and shonks party in 2019 with ScamMo the Obvious at the helm.
There is nobody else to blame for this outcome. Australia got what we voted for, and hence what we deserve.
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Boerwar @ #2154 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 5:38 pm
Third time lucky?
Boerwars
Has there been any sightings of Herr Kipfler and his Emergency Management Australia on this ?
Sprocket_
Where I live the Rollerblade teams are women, and they dress unconventionally. One team has just adopted our local as an after training venue. They probably dress differently at work, but they definitely do not seem to have much in common dress-wise with the average Liberal female MP.
Is this why a rollerblade team would not get funding?
doyley @ #2153 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 7:07 pm
The us is the Leadership cabal of Morrison, Frydenberg, McCormack and McKenzie. McCormack’s Election launch speech actually confirms that they did on that very day. They are the ones that prostituted the process.
That reminds me. The idiots at Newcastle Council got rid of the open shower/change room at Nobbys (I can’t recall if there was a female equivalent sorry) which was admittedly scungy. However, they replaced it with some unisex toilet cubicles. Which you can’t change in.
And they did refurbish the open-air shower – except that they gave it this really sharp edged metal mesh flooring that is really uncomfortable to stand on in bare feet. In any case you do need somewhere private to change and there isn’t one. Not that I mind getting naked in public but its not socially acceptable at Nobbys (was in some places I’ve been to overseas).
Vogon Poet @ #2139 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 6:45 pm
I hope someone is doing that in the CPG right this very minute.
”Australia got what we voted for, and hence what we deserve.”
Yes.
GG,
My belief as well.
Sadly, the weasel answer was not followed up today and I doubt it will in the future.
However, hope springs eternal and we shall see what unfolds.
Cheers.
This sort of behaviour by the Bernistas is not uncommon.
Five Bernie Sanders supporters have been arrested for criminal trespassing on Joe Biden’s Des Moines Campaign HQ. Among the arrested were:
John Reardon, 22
Michael McKinley, 68
William Floyd, 22
Denise Cheeseman, 21
Kiran Loewenstein, 19
JM
The thing that most shocked me at the time 2010-2013 was how gullible/inept/lazy the media was.
Also the one journo who dared speak the truth (Nick Ross ABC) was hounded by Turnbull out of his job.
And Tony Jones (Q+A) was quickly shut down. In fact you could see him quickly shutting up people who asked about the NBN. Seems there was a deal done with Turnbull that there wouldn’t be any questions asked about the NBN.
He said “All we did was provide information based on the representation made to us.”
Did no one think to ask him what that information was!?!
Such as, maybe the PMO provided the information re polling in the marginal seats being targeted? You know, incriminating stuff WE need to know.
I’m really sick of the CPG journos just taking a Morrison answer at face value.
Steve777
To some extent I’d sympathise with the “we got what we deserved” sentiment.. except..
1. Those of us who knew better didn’t get what we deserved
2. Particularly with the NBN, there were a lot of honest but not well informed voters who were deliberately exploited by Turnbull.
C@tmomma @ #2166 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 7:24 pm
All that is plausible denial. The Media haven’t asked the right questions and Morrison will Dance till the Music dies.
Cud Chewer @ #2167 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 7:24 pm
It was Sonny Bill Williamson appearing in a hologram (though what THAT had to do with Turnbull’s mess of a solution, idk), that sealed the deal for the Coalition. All the sports fans (there it is again as a vote-clincher, sport) just somehow equated the Coalition’s ‘solution’ with being able to watch their sport better, whereas it was simply the fact that Murdoch owned SBW’s body and he had to jump for Murdoch when he said, jump.
Re masks, I often see Chinese people in the streets and on public transport wearing masks, especially in the cold and flu season. It’s been a thing for Chinese people since the SARS epidemic in the early 2000’s. I think it’s a combination of not wanting to catch something and people who have coughs or other symptoms not wanting to spread it. It’s a good idea – a train carriage or bus in Winter is a mobile microbiological incubator.
I am seeing lots of masks in the last couple of weeks. The smoke’s gone, so it now must be concern regarding the new virus.
Greensborough Growler @ #2168 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 7:26 pm
Of course he will. Until he wears the media out. Like one of those 24 hour dance-a-thon competitions.
I also note that Scotty from Marketing had Angus Taylor placed front and centre in the Coalition cabal’s table, like a poke in the eye with a blunt stick to all those who think HE should be long gone too.
“frednk
From JoNova we get incoherent nonsense. It is so wrong you can’t even argue against it.”
But..But….she is a selfless warrior for truthieness in science, less tax and down with the one world govt……..who is apparently unemployable and desperately needs our donations to put food on the table and run her blog!!
C@t
I was very active at the time and my recollection was the single big idea Turnbull was pushing was “it was cheap”. It wasn’t a “rolls royce solution”.
Indeed, back when Turnbull was asked by the media, his go to expression was “a quarter to a third the cost”. No one ever badgered him with that after it became clear there was no cost saving at all.
I also recall dealing with ordinary people (including some idiot working in JBs) at the time and the message they received was “this was better value”. In other words, they’d swallowed (and many still have this impression) that it had saved lots of money.
Why Labor hasn’t ever said publicly the following “The Liberals conned voters. They said their version of the NBN would be cheaper. It wasn’t. They said it would be fast. Its dead end technology. Most importantly, the Liberals have spent $50 billion on something that will have to be replaced. Your money has been wasted”.
Its such easy pickings.
The Big Lie was always that once you built FTTN you could sit back and do nothing for decades. That you wouldn’t quickly discover it obsolete and have to spend a lot of money replacing it. Heck even the stooges at NBNco are still claiming it can be upgraded. Big lie. Yet Labor says nothing about this..
Very simple fact. What Turnbull built is temporary. Its wasted money. It cannot last. We will have to scrap it and replace it. Very easy stuff for Labor to repeat at every opportunity. It doesn’t. I’m not even sure if Albo fully comprehends how temporary it is.
C@tmomma @ #2171 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 7:31 pm
They Shoot Horses Don’t They?
“Has there been any sightings of Herr Kipfler and his Emergency Management Australia on this ?”
Nah…he only comes out of the bunker to protect us against small brown skinned children and their parents. Hey….there is more than one of those kids on Xmas island? Does that make them a gang we should be all affeared of and flee our local restaurants ??
Brave, Brave Herr Kipfler!!!
D&M
I am surprised you say Chinese wearing masks is unusual in Sydney because it is common in Melbourne.
Steve777
That could be the reason but I was once told by a Chinese friend that it was because of the taste of the air here is really sweet compared to back home.
In other news, the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive starts tomorrow.
“I am surprised you say Chinese wearing masks is unusual in Sydney because it is common in Melbourne.”
I would say it’s very common in Sydney, at least on the North Shore around Chatswood.
William Bowe @ #2177 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 7:43 pm
You really should broaden the appeal to people who aren’t bi.
that channel 7 clip just showed Mark Riley at the NPC refer to “this rort” in his question to Morrisson. Also Probyn showing a chart with party colours as he asked about a “stitch up”.
Good to see the media really laying in to the govt on this.
“In other news, the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive starts tomorrow.”
And a much more worth cause it is. 🙂 PB and the Guardian are about all i actually subscribe coin to at the moment.
Im currently in Malaysia and I would say roughly 30-40% of the people I see in public (middle class areas in Kuala Lumpur) are wearing surgical masks.
Big A Adrian says:
Wednesday, January 29, 2020 at 7:48 pm
that channel 7 clip just showed Mark Riley at the NPC refer to “this rort” in his question to Morrisson. Also Probyn showing a chart with party colours as he asked about a “stitch up”.
Good to see the media really laying in to the govt on this.
_________________________________
The last time I saw the media lay into a PM this much was when it bashed Julia Gillard for just about everything. This is still ‘meh’ compared to the hysterical pack hunting then, but it’s interesting to see that the pack is prepared to at least call the bleeding obvious – a trait missing since 2013
Brave, Brave Herr Kipfler!!!
—————
I just consumed some of Herr Kipfler’s comrades for tea.
Cold roasted leftover kipflers in a salad . 🙂
Noticeable that it was abc and guardian and independent journos who attacked.
Rakali @ #2133 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 5:43 pm
Remember the last few years of the NSW ALP government? That sort of tumbling down.
Bibi’s stitch up with Trump is sinking fast. Looking at the before and after maps of what is left of Palestine is one of the reasons..
before is on the left – and wierdly, to be able to say the size is similar, they have added in some desert on the Egyptian border, whilst leaving a Swiss Cheese heartland with illegal settler dots
The one thing you must understand about the Libs is that ‘Power” is everything. They can stand division, the can stand embarrassment, they can stand disappointment. Two years out from an Election means that Morrison can tough it out atm. But, if things do not improve over time the chatterers will chatter, the knives will be unsheathed and a true reset will be engineered.
And they completely removed access to the water-feature.
ajm @ #2186 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 8:05 pm
Not at all and could not give a fig!
Too many bruised and injured NSW Llbor leaning soldiers on PB can’t seem to get over themselves and move on. Clearly, you haven’t had enough of being irrelevant.
We in Victoria know how to deliver.
Transport Infrastructure Minister Jacinta Allan had a “robust conversation” with Transurban boss Scott Charlton on Wednesday morning, and maintained that it was up to the toll road giant and the construction companies to resolve the dispute
You tell em Jacinta !
Looks like the Israelis are plan to give the Palestinians a few patches of desert in exchange for the lands that they stole. And they would basically surround such territories as they would allow a fragmented Palestinian State. No one would accept that.
Steve777
The plan for years has been to create a collection of buntustans to herd the Palestinians into. Scumbags on Fox were banging on that the Palestinians were “getting a lot out of this” and “there is a lot in there for the Palestinians” . Strange thing was despite using the phrases so many times they never managed to actually mention anything they were ‘getting” . Anyway the Palestinians should be grateful to get anything………………apparently
What is that bizarre square patch of land out in the desert?
[‘Australian residents trapped in the epicenter of the coronavirus in China are considering rejecting the federal governments offer to evacuate them to Christmas Island, as Qantas prepares for an emergency flight into Wuhan.’]
And consider it they should. Yet another stupid decision of the Morrison Government. What about all those who are returning in extemporary conditions? – they get to chose their method of re-entry. And, moreover, the Chief Health Officer should consider his position:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-drastic-measure-australians-in-china-prepare-for-christmas-island-evacuation-20200129-p53vue.html
Israel Folau signed by the Catalan Dragons
Even by the standards of European Rugby League teams les dragons Catalan are considered to be ruffians – they should be a challenge for his morals
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/jan/28/israel-folau-switches-codes-again-to-sign-for-catalans-dragons-rugby-league
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-28/why-finance-is-fleeing-fossil-fuels/11903928
And that’s precisely the message I’m getting from people I talk to in the coal industry in the Hunter.
It’s a little “insider” game they play.
Rule #1 for politicians: “Never admit wrong”.
Rule #1 for journalists: “We won”t ever accuse you of lying”.
Everyone gets along fine unless one side or the other breaks one of the above rules. Then it’s open slather.
Example: Gillard stupidly conceded to Heather Ewart (now on the back roads doing Back Roads) that “Carbon Tax” was an OK description. That violated pollies’ Rule #1: never admit wrong
After that, it was open slather, up to and including “Ju-LIAR”.
Unless a politician admits fault you can’t call him or her a liar. The game ends in a draw without admissions. Most games end thus.
No matter how compelling the evidence, unless fault is admitted, it’s a drawn game.
Drawn games allow the Main Game to continue. Both sides rely on each other to play to the rules. They feed off each other.
The public is irrelevant. The journalism profession will continue to tell them everything’s going well, despite the clear evidence in front of them that it’s not.
Greensborough Growler @ #2190 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 7:14 pm
I think you misunderstood me. I was comparing the possible next couple of years of the Morrison (or replacement) government with the similar period when Labor staggered on, mortally wounded, in NSW. Lack of direction, leadership changes, etc, etc.
A government can be effectively dead but still in office.
Every time the Catalin Dragons team fly to a game the inflight movie is always “ Con Air”.
Real life reflecting art.