Patriot games

Evidence a large majority opposes changing the date of Australia Day, even without the IPA’s thumb on the scales.

First up, please note that immediately below this post is a new entry on developments in Queensland, which include one and possibly two looming state by-elections. With that out of the way, a brief collection of polling and preselection news:

• In the wake of a contentious poll on the subject for the Institute of Public Affairs, The West Australian has published a WA-only survey on attitudes towards celebrating Australia Day on January 26, conducted by Perth market research firm Painted Dog Research. This found 65% support for maintaining the current date with 21% opposed, breaking down to 55-26 among those aged 18 to 39, 67-20 among those 40 to 59, and 78-14 among those 60 and over. Although substantial, the headline figure is narrower than the 71-11 margin recorded by the Dynata poll for the IPA, which primed respondents with two leading questions on being proud of Australia. This poll was conducted from 842 respondents drawn from an online panel, with no field work dates provided.

• Cory Bernardi has followed through on his announcement last year that he would resign to the Senate, which means his South Australian seat returns to a nominee of the Liberal Party, for which he won the seat from the top of the ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The Australian ($) reports the matter will be decided on February 1, from a field including Morry Bailes, managing partner at Tindall Gask Bentley Lawyers and former president of the Law Council of Australia; state upper house MP Andrew McLachlan; and Michael van Dissel, former state party treasurer. Bailes has the support of conservatives including Mathias Cormann and South Australian federal MPs Tony Pasin and Nicolle Flint, which is presumably good to have.

• Heavy duty psephological pundit Mark the Ballot examines the deficiencies of polling before the May federal election, to the extent that the industry’s lack of transparency makes the matter knowable. The thrust of the analysis is that the pollsters’ models were “not complex enough to adequately overcome the sampling frame problems”, the latter reflecting the fact that surveying methods in the modern age cannot plausibly claim to produce genuinely random samples of the voting population. As well as the models by which the pollsters convert their data into vote shares, this lack of “complexity” may equally arise from herding, the unacknowledged use of smoothing techniques such as rolling averages, and over-use of the same respondents in online panels.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,257 comments on “Patriot games”

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  2. We tried to warn people not to get sucked in by the Snake Oil salesmen peddling false NBN realities, as real as the Sonny Boy Williamson hologram.

  4. Mavis @ #2089 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 4:28 pm

    nath:

    [‘Mundo is just a rational person…’]

    He may be rational but his posts are very predictable. He needs to spice them up a bit. Can you let him know(?).

    Mr Morrison is looking pretty rattled at the moment.
    He could barely string two words together at the NPC today.
    I almost felt sorry for him.
    Labor really has him where they want him now.
    Backed into a corner, no where to run.
    He’s looking like a stunned mullet.
    I reckon he’s gorn by the end of the week.
    Sunday tops.

  5. I reckon Morrison was all false bravado at the NPC today. The only way he can do any good for this country is to adopt policies that his party has rubbished in the past or offend the ideology of his supporters and the right wing rump.

  6. lizzie @ #2101 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 4:49 pm

    A few people have picked up that this was an admission that Morrison was involved (I think PvO among them).

    The PM was asked if it was wrong to use public money for political benefit.

    “That’s not why I did it and that’s not why the government did it,” he said.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2020/01/29/sport-grants-scott-morrison/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Extra%20-%2020200129

    I didn’t kill him. He jumped on my knife. He jumped on my knife five times!

  9. BK @ #2106 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 5:18 pm

    I reckon Morrison was all false bravado at the NPC today. The only way he can do any good for this country is to adopt policies that his party has rubbished in the past or offend the ideology of his supporters and the right wing rump.

    Morrison was never going to put his leadership standing on the line. So, avoid real climate change action because the trogs won’t wear it and don’t take on the Nats over McKenzie.

    All we got was more of the same because that’s all he’s got.

  10. BK

    I wasn’t very impressed that now Morrison is saying that more sporting clubs may now receive grants. Buying them off. Amazing how money suddenly becomes available every time he wants to shore up his position. Just reveals how unscrupulous they are.

  12. Rex D

    I found the presser a bit strange. The gentleman had spent some time in a restaurant, and is now in isolation. But the message was that anyone who spent less than two hours in the restaurant was safe. I would have thought that proximity was more important. But what would I know?

  13. Even Andrew bolt thinks that bridget must go!

    WHY BRIDGET MCKENZIE MUST RESIGN
    The sports rort scandal has finally exposed Bridget McKenzie’s treatment of devoted volunteers as shameful — and proven why it should not be tolerated. The government’s reputation can’t be restored until she resigns, writes Andrew Bolt.

  15. So Ch10 news reported that Morrison forgot to tell QANTAS about their charter flights from China and also forgot to tell the WA Premier about housing the people on Christmas Island.

    How did these muppets win the election ?

  17. Greensborough Growler @ #2115 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 5:28 pm

    Even Andrew bolt thinks that bridget must go!

    WHY BRIDGET MCKENZIE MUST RESIGN
    The sports rort scandal has finally exposed Bridget McKenzie’s treatment of devoted volunteers as shameful — and proven why it should not be tolerated. The government’s reputation can’t be restored until she resigns, writes Andrew Bolt.

    Problem is, they’re in it up to their necks as well.

  18. Think of it as a hypnotist’s trick, because that’s what it is. Scott Morrison says it over and over: there is no dispute about the need to take action to reduce Australia’s emissions. No dispute. You are getting sleepy. No dispute.

    In fact there is a dispute, and a serious one. By failing to do what is necessary, the government Morrison leads maintains a serious dispute with what the climate science tells us needs to be done both in Australia and internationally to avert the most dangerous risks associated with global heating.

    When it comes to mitigation, Morrison’s government is in dispute with the facts.
    …
    So despite his gritted-teeth soothing and head-patting from the podium at the National Press Club on Wednesday after a summer of calamity, there’s a dispute alright, and it’s one of the most important disputes of our time.
    …
    Here’s one piece of advice for all you good folks who watched Morrison’s scene setter at the press club: do not consent to having your head patted.

    Do not consent to the high stakes hypnotism. When the prime minister says “taking action is agreed”, do feel free to say to yourself or to anyone around you: “No, it isn’t agreed.”

    If so inclined, add this: “Climate action remains contested, and it remains contested because the Coalition chose to weaponise climate change at the precise moment in history when we needed to get about solving it.”

    If you feel on a roll at this point, add this: “And this political party still weaponises climate change against its opponents if it feels there’s an electoral advantage in doing so.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/29/our-government-is-choosing-to-fail-on-climate-and-trying-to-make-a-virtue-of-it?CMP=share_btn_tw

  19. @MattDoran91
    · 4h
    “We’re a responsible government that manages public money carefully,” the PM tells @andrewprobyn as he defends how clubs missed out on funding.

    A reminder: Pakenham Football Club scored 50/100 and got $500k. Gippsland Roller Derby got 98/100, wanted $45k and got $0 #auspol

  21. lizzie @ #2113 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 5:27 pm

    Rex D

    I found the presser a bit strange. The gentleman had spent some time in a restaurant, and is now in isolation. But the message was that anyone who spent less than two hours in the restaurant was safe. I would have thought that proximity was more important. But what would I know?

    I would think his immediate neighbours and local neighbourhood have a right to know the threat living under their noses.

  23. C@tmomma @ #2119 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 5:32 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2115 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 5:28 pm

    Even Andrew bolt thinks that bridget must go!

    WHY BRIDGET MCKENZIE MUST RESIGN
    The sports rort scandal has finally exposed Bridget McKenzie’s treatment of devoted volunteers as shameful — and proven why it should not be tolerated. The government’s reputation can’t be restored until she resigns, writes Andrew Bolt.

    Problem is, they’re in it up to their necks as well.

    Clearly, the drip is on Bridget!

    News and Fairfax want a sacrifice but not Morrison atm. The problem as I see it is that the whole edifice will come tumbling down unless Morrison shows some Leadership soon.

    The Press at the NPC today were underwhelmed by the glibness of Morrison and weren’t hiding their contempt of the Government.

  28. Blog watch 29/1/2020
    complementary agendas and motivations and the culture war
    When you look at the social and cultural disintegration of the West, especially things like the promotion within our schools of aberrant sexual lifestyles, it is tempting to look for a single explanation and a single villain (or rather a single set of villains).
    A strange set of words. Sort of thing you would expect in a pub at 10 o’clock at night.
    http://anotherpoliticallyincorrectblog.blogspot.com/
    China’s Coal Power To Remain Dominant Till At Least 2035
    In its review of the government’s five-year-plan, China Electricity Council (CEC) – the influential industry body representing China’s power industry – recommended adopting a ‘cap’ for coal power capacity by 2030 — but the 1300GW limit proposed is 290GW higher than current capacity.
    This is 100 Loy Yang B, or if NSW 100, Bayswaters power stations. The article talks about 300 to 500 powers station. Pretty small units if they build it out like that.
    The translation is ambiguous when it comes to wind/solar, but reading it generously implies that wind and solar capacity will increase to 600GW each, from 210 and 204GW currently.
    Boy does that sentence need a comer. In other words, china plans on having a massive expansion in their generation capacity, with the expansion of solar and wind being greater than coal.
    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/01/28/chinas-coal-power-to-remain-till-at-least-2035/#more-43248
    Australia Day is politically correct anyway …
    Fact that there were two flags on the Coat Hanger was prolly the most obvious example. Also, heaps of people were carrying both flags themselves. I didn’t actually see where they acquired them but it seemed that they were handed out in pairs.
    A bit of a whine.
    http://www.matthaydenblog.com/
    ABC outrage: Solar in Australia no longer ‘a licence to *steal* money’
    Nothing in the article worth quoting. Investment in network solar is in trouble because the changes to the network required are being schedule. From JoNova we get incoherent nonsense. It is so wrong you can’t even argue against it.
    http://joannenova.com.au/2020/01/abc-outrage-solar-in-australia-no-longer-a-licence-to-steal-money/
    Hypocrites Preaching Green
    For electricity generation, green is good, but Steyer and his buddies Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg are tight lipped about the extensive land required for the intermittent electricity from wind turbines and solar panel farms and where to place them for maximum exposure to sun and wind year- round. The land acquisitions necessary to pull that off are nightmares waiting to happen. And then, its only intermittent electricity when the sun is shining, and the wind is blowing.
    As I keep pointing, opportunity for Australia. Most of article tells you very little. Emotional crap.
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/28/hypocrites-preaching-green/
    Al Shabaab terror group bans single-use plastic bags
    The Somali militant Islamist group, which has links to al Qaeda, has long had an interest in environmental issues. It made the official announcement on Radio Andalus, which is operated by al Shabaab.
    Still can’t graph global temperature beyond 2010. Some of the shit that gets written?
    http://antigreen.blogspot.com/
    <JENNY HOCKING. High Court to hear bid to release the Queen’s secret Whitlam dismissal letters.
    And more good reading
    https://johnmenadue.com/
    The bastard subsidiarity of bushfire responses
    The crisis brought to a head this ambivalence of governments. It underlies the attack by three NSW government ministers on the community groups responding to the fires. The ministers criticized them for doing ineffectually what the government was not doing and for spending money on administration that it should have provided.
    I think it is worth a read.
    https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/
    Prime Minister Morrison sets out his government’s agenda for 2020
    To guide Australia’s future technology investments, the Government will next month release for consultation a new technology roadmap charting the way forward in areas such as:

    Hydrogen,
    Solar and batteries,
    Transmission and networks,
    Large-scale energy storage, and
    Carbon capture and storage.

    So our climate action agenda is a practical one, it goes beyond targets and summits and it’s driven by technology, not taxation.

    The pivot, this is going to be interesting. What will happen to the ARENA funding. The Greens will no doubt continue to chant Adani, Adani.
    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/01/prime-minister-morrison-sets-out-his-governments-agenda-for-2020.html
    What does our future hold: will infections continue to dominate?
    Attempts to control the virus like those faced by SARS are turning into a nightmare and tells us much about facing the spread of viral infections.
    https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=20713
    AGL signs up for “giant” battery in Queensland, paving way for 1000MW solar plant
    Major utility has announced a big expansion of its big battery plans, with a 15-year deal for a new 100MW/150MWh “giant” battery to be built next to the planned Wandoan solar farm in Queensland which could grow to 1,000MW, the biggest in the country.
    It would seem the federal government agrees with P1 and is funding GAS plants. It will be interesting if that decision remains.
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/agl-signs-up-for-giant-battery-in-queensland-paving-way-for-1000mw-solar-plant-12232/
    Be careful of what parades as academic research (Uber)
    I have been following an unfolding story about how Uber has decided to draw on that corrupt tendency for their own gains. It is not a pretty story.
    Paragraphs, man paragraphs.
    http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/g/?p=44145

  29. @fitzhunter
    ·
    2h
    .
    @senbmckenzie failed to implement the Biosecurity Imports Levy despite promising to have it in place at our ports by July last year – a delay that has created concern for the ag sector but now with #coronavirus, the threat is to the entire population.

    Any rumour that Bridget has done anything except fly around Australia and visit sports grounds?

  30. lizzie @ #2122 Wednesday, January 29th, 2020 – 5:36 pm

    @MattDoran91
    · 4h
    “We’re a responsible government that manages public money carefully,” the PM tells @andrewprobyn as he defends how clubs missed out on funding.

    A reminder: Pakenham Football Club scored 50/100 and got $500k. Gippsland Roller Derby got 98/100, wanted $45k and got $0 #auspol

    I honestly find Morrison’s defence of the Sports Pork tawdry. The way he seeks to emphasise ‘little girls getting changed behind the sheds or in their cars’ is simply tacky.

    Anyway, all the girls that play sport that I have known have always gotten changed at home and come to the game fully kitted up except for the sports boots. They wear their trainers then put their boots on at the ground. Or, if playing netball, the shoes are the same.

  33. Greensborough Growler

    The problem as I see it is that the whole edifice will come tumbling down unless Morrison shows some Leadership soon.
    ———————-

    But how will it come tumbling down? They have a majority in the House.

    Unless some MPs defect or there are some convenient by-elections they can go on for another two years.

  35. C@t

    The girly changing rooms was something he latched on to from the first moment of needing an excuse and he’s stuck to it ever since. Rather unimaginative, as well as mostly wrong.

  36. Has anyone in the press counted how many funded projects were for girls changing rooms. Morrison gave it as an important reason for the sports grants today ( again ) ?

  37. Bevan Shields
    @BevanShields
    ·
    35s
    This is fast becoming a huge global economic story. British Airways suspends ALL flights to mainland China over #coronoavirus fears.

  39. C@t
    Anyway, all the girls that play sport that I have known have always gotten changed at home and come to the game fully kitted up except for the sports boots. They wear their trainers then put their boots on at the ground. Or, if playing netball, the shoes are the same.

    Same with my boys. change rooms were never used by the primary school set, and not really by the high school set.

    As you say, tawdry. Although I realise the “girls charge rooms” is a subtle bit of marketing – you do not want those nasty, gender- bending lefty unisex change rooms.

  40. Bill Birtles
    @billbirtles
    ·
    5h
    Gauging reaction from a #Wuhan-Australians WeChat group to Morrison’s ‘Christmas Island’ evac plan: A lot of concern about medical facilities on Xmas Island, conditions for kids, safety, even web access. A comment that keeps coming up: ‘It’s probably better to stay in Wuhan’.

  41. frednk

    From JoNova we get incoherent nonsense. It is so wrong you can’t even argue against it.

    Sounds deserving of a Pauli “not even wrong” .

  42. I am also amazed at the 180 degree pivot by the Federal Government in the last 24 hours on the handling of 2019-nCoV.

    Yesterday: No problem, kids can go to school as long as not in contact with obviously infected person.

    Today: Evacuees to Christmas Island; Get out under your own steam – 14 days self-quarantine at home; China Women’s national soccer team confined to a Brisbane hotel until Feb 5.

    I understand that with this new strain of virus, things are evolving, but I am not sure that much changed overnight – seems more like marketing solutions to me. but I am definitely not an expert.

  43. Meanwhile in Queensland….

    The national Chinese women’s soccer team has been isolated within a Brisbane hotel room as a precaution after it was revealed they last week travelled to the city of Wuhan – the epicentre of the novel coronavirus outbreak.

    The group of 32 people – including players and support staff – arrived in Brisbane from Singapore on Wednesday morning and was planning on training in Brisbane before travelling to Sydney.

    They had travelled to Singapore from Wuhan a week ago on January 22.

  44. D&M, I spent some time in Sydney CBD today, including taking the tram to Chinatown, and thence Central.

    I would say 5-10% of people were wearing face masks. You normally never see them.

  45. OK, BA have suspended all flights to China. So someone thinks this might get serious.

    Also, I heard today that someone in Germany was infected by a symptomless carrier?

    At a meeting today the talk came around to coronavirus. A major Antarctic Science meeting ACAMAR that was to be held in mainland China in early march has been cancelled – seems a very serious reaction. A women at the meeting who obviously knew a lot more virology than anyone else told us that after SARS, sample of bat poo in caves showed four strands of SARS. She said that one strain had 96% of RNA in common with the 2019-nCoV. Had to leave before I could ask all the implications.

  47. And here is a typical comment…

    Do you think perhaps the Australian citizens in Wuhan maybe don’t want to be trapped on #coronavirus island in a detention centre, rather than say near an Australian hospital? It’s like a terrible “Contagion” film script. #Scummo really isn’t very good at leadership. #auspol

    I suppose Morrison and his ‘brains trust’ thought the millions they waste keeping Christmas Island open could be put to good use as a quarantine station – Serco could do it. Who could possibly complain about this innovative use of a prison island?

  49. ‘Douglas and Milko says:
    Wednesday, January 29, 2020 at 6:52 pm

    I am also amazed at the 180 degree pivot by the Federal Government in the last 24 hours on the handling of 2019-nCoV.

    Yesterday: No problem, kids can go to school as long as not in contact with obviously infected person.

    Today: Evacuees to Christmas Island; Get out under your own steam – 14 days self-quarantine at home; China Women’s national soccer team confined to a Brisbane hotel until Feb 5.

    I understand that with this new strain of virus, things are evolving, but I am not sure that much changed overnight – seems more like marketing solutions to me. but I am definitely not an expert’

    Hunt has questions to answer.

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