Patriot games

Evidence a large majority opposes changing the date of Australia Day, even without the IPA’s thumb on the scales.

First up, please note that immediately below this post is a new entry on developments in Queensland, which include one and possibly two looming state by-elections. With that out of the way, a brief collection of polling and preselection news:

• In the wake of a contentious poll on the subject for the Institute of Public Affairs, The West Australian has published a WA-only survey on attitudes towards celebrating Australia Day on January 26, conducted by Perth market research firm Painted Dog Research. This found 65% support for maintaining the current date with 21% opposed, breaking down to 55-26 among those aged 18 to 39, 67-20 among those 40 to 59, and 78-14 among those 60 and over. Although substantial, the headline figure is narrower than the 71-11 margin recorded by the Dynata poll for the IPA, which primed respondents with two leading questions on being proud of Australia. This poll was conducted from 842 respondents drawn from an online panel, with no field work dates provided.

• Cory Bernardi has followed through on his announcement last year that he would resign to the Senate, which means his South Australian seat returns to a nominee of the Liberal Party, for which he won the seat from the top of the ticket at the 2016 double dissolution. The Australian ($) reports the matter will be decided on February 1, from a field including Morry Bailes, managing partner at Tindall Gask Bentley Lawyers and former president of the Law Council of Australia; state upper house MP Andrew McLachlan; and Michael van Dissel, former state party treasurer. Bailes has the support of conservatives including Mathias Cormann and South Australian federal MPs Tony Pasin and Nicolle Flint, which is presumably good to have.

• Heavy duty psephological pundit Mark the Ballot examines the deficiencies of polling before the May federal election, to the extent that the industry’s lack of transparency makes the matter knowable. The thrust of the analysis is that the pollsters’ models were “not complex enough to adequately overcome the sampling frame problems”, the latter reflecting the fact that surveying methods in the modern age cannot plausibly claim to produce genuinely random samples of the voting population. As well as the models by which the pollsters convert their data into vote shares, this lack of “complexity” may equally arise from herding, the unacknowledged use of smoothing techniques such as rolling averages, and over-use of the same respondents in online panels.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,257 comments on “Patriot games”

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  1. Ah, another poll confirming mainstream Australians are happy with the leaving Australia day right where it is each year. 2 out of 3 is pretty darn good imho.

    You read the earnest words of the loquacious few here on PB and more generally in Social media and wonder when these posters will realise that their self evident nuggets of truth are just dried out dog turds.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers on another Slow Sunday.

    Bevan Shields explains why ‘getting Brexit done’ is easier said than accomplished.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/unscrambling-an-egg-why-getting-brexit-done-is-easier-said-than-accomplished-20200114-p53rhu.html
    And Nick Bonyhady explains what the Bridget McKenzie scandal is all about.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-is-the-bridget-mckenzie-scandal-about-20200123-p53tzf.html
    In an Australia Day op-ed Anthony Albanese writes on how adversity brings out the best in us.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/adversity-brings-out-the-best-in-us-20200123-p53u4r.html
    Morrison also has an op-ed which basically says, “How good is Australia!”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/celebrate-australia-s-strong-and-open-heart-20200125-p53uo4.html
    Bevan Shields begins this contribution with, “Something strange happened this week: for the first time in a long time, Donald Trump wasn’t the main attraction at a gathering of world leaders. The circus had lost its ringmaster.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/as-trump-melted-into-the-background-at-davos-one-big-new-climate-idea-stood-out-20200124-p53ulm.html
    Returning home to Australia after spending a couple of years living in the US Matthew Knott reflects on where we are at – and he doesn’t like it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/an-unbridgeable-fire-break-divides-a-paradise-politicised-20200121-p53t6w.html
    As Scott Morrison continues to deal with the bushfire crisis, the extent of Senator Bridget McKenzie’s pork-barrelling has been exposed, writes John Wren in his weekly political roundup.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-bridget-mckenzies-sports-rort-affair,13525
    British police are to start operational use of live facial recognition (LFR) cameras in London, despite warnings over privacy from rights groups and concerns expressed by the government’s own surveillance watchdog.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/facial-recognition-cameras-to-take-london-surveillance-to-new-level-20200125-p53uok.html
    The SMH editorial reflects on what Australian Day means.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-day-to-reflect-on-blessings-and-duties-20200124-p53ulc.html
    Campbell Newman collects a gong in the Honours List. Says plenty about the awards.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/25/australia-day-honours-list-jane-turner-and-campbell-newman-among-2020-recipients
    Adam Morton reveals that a senior adviser to the federal government on threatened species has backed calls for the creation of a national scientific monitoring system after the bushfire crisis to help fix Australia’s “very uneven” record in protecting endangered wildlife.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/26/australian-government-adviser-urges-threatened-species-overhaul-after-bushfires
    The Gold Coast mayor, Tom Tate, could face misconduct proceedings after a scathing rebuke by Queensland’s corruption watchdog over his actions in public office.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/24/gold-coast-mayor-tom-tate-could-face-misconduct-proceedings-after-watchdogs-findings
    Many young people have no knowledge of a genocide conducted in the heart of enlightened Europe. The consequences will be felt for years writes Alex Ryvchin.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/lest-we-forget-75-years-after-auschwitz-too-many-do-20200124-p53ugv.html
    Peter Brewer writes about a survivor who is deeply troubled that despite a Royal Commission, widespread condemnation of the Catholic Church’s “protected” confessional secrecy, and the terrible abuse admissions made by priests, very little has changed.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6597648/seal-of-confession-allows-child-abuse-to-continue/?cs=14225
    Trump knows all he needs for evangelical votes is to crack down on women’s rights writes Arwa Mahdawi.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/25/trump-evangelical-votes-womens-rights-reproductive-health-abortion-march-for-life

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding




    Reg Lynch

    From the US




  3. Maley

    It’s all very jolly hockey-sticks, and while no one denies the importance of an active local MP, their eagerness to be seen to be involved in the (relatively) small beer business of building toilet blocks, stands in contrast to their apparent inability to address the great national challenges we face.

    To wit, a summer of catastrophic weather events that the government was fully warned of, but did not adequately prepare for. A tricky emissions policy that will not reduce emissions anywhere near enough. A climate change management policy that has flipped from heavy flirtation with denialism to an apparent focus on the distraction of hazard reduction. An insistence from the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, this week that no jobs must be lost in the quest to reduce emissions.

    By this “no jobs must be lost” logic, we should still be sending children down coal mines, or publicly subsidising basket-weavers.

    But only if they are in the right electorates, apparently.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/an-unbridgeable-fire-break-divides-a-paradise-politicised-20200121-p53t6w.html

  5. A cracking read from Mark the Ballot in regards to polling and the 2019 election.

    At University we spent much time looking at statistics and analysis and how to use or abuse data.

    Reading Mark’s insights I have a little more understanding about the art or science of phesphology and polls but I think would would be useful for PB would be a quick guide to how polls actually work and what is meant by terms such as rolling averages etc etc.

    I still think polls by their nature are an inexact science due to a whole range of factors at the time… along the lines of the Myers-Briggs TI which IMHO believe to be an absolute waste of time.

  6. “Ah, another poll confirming mainstream Australians are happy with the leaving Australia day right where it is each year. 2 out of 3 is pretty darn good imho.”

    ***

    Another poll confirming that Australia has a massive problem with racism, more like it.

    The sad thing is that it’s not surprising at all. Roughly half the country votes for parties who run on platforms of racism (Coalition, PHON, etc…). Listen to the vile rhetoric they go on with year after year.

    It should also never be forgotten that Adolf Hitler was democratically elected by the German people. A majority or large number of people holding racist views neither justifies nor excuses those views.

  7. Have a good day all in this sun drenched country. Happy Australia Day to all our surviving native animals. May our climate change policy enable your survival to be long term.

    May Labor and Liberal parties both find the courage to face the fact that the coal industry needs to close within twenty years, brown coal within ten, and be honest enough to admit that this will not economically harm the country, only the miners and coal mine owners, while reducing our power prices.

  9. Firefox @ #6 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 7:49 am

    “Ah, another poll confirming mainstream Australians are happy with the leaving Australia day right where it is each year. 2 out of 3 is pretty darn good imho.”

    ***

    Another poll confirming that Australia has a massive problem with racism, more like it.

    The sad thing is that it’s not surprising at all. Roughly half the country votes for parties who run on platforms of racism (Coalition, PHON, etc…). Listen to the vile rhetoric they go on with year after year.

    It should also never be forgotten that Adolf Hitler was democratically elected by the German people. A majority or large number of people holding racist views neither justifies nor excuses those views.

    What a load of cobblers!

  10. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol on this Australia Day.

    Some interesting items – this one had me interested almost against my will -🔽🔽🔽🔽

    Morrison also has an op-ed which basically says, “How good is Australia!”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/celebrate-australia-s-strong-and-open-heart-20200125-p53uo4.html

    Some wonderful sentiments – some almost complete bullshit (as Mr. Morrison writes “My bullshit Our country isn’t perfect but none is.”

    A very nice photo of the Prime Minister wearing an “Australian Flag” lapel badge.

    Not a lot to argue with although 🔽🔽

    Our small businesses are pitching in too – using general stores as collection points, opening early to give victims clothes to wear, offering water or meals to firies, and baristas donating their tips.

    Seem particularly inane. I will later enquire of my daughter residing Batemans Bay way as to her frequency tipping barristas and how are her workmates getting on with their now destroyed houses.

    Regarding older voters becoming more like their grandfathers – I have a plan to reverse the current charge applied to the neck bolt for selected individuals.

    I fear I am raving again. Good morning all. ☮☕

  12. Hmmm… Australia’s inbound international tourism has already taken a serious hit from the fires. Now this:

    ‘China tour groups blocked from overseas trips

    China is suspending all tour groups from journeys outside the country, state media reported, in another attempt to keep the virus from possibly spreading to new regions and countries.’

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/01/25/0ca57a5e-3ed7-11ea-afe2-090eb37b60b1_story.html

  13. Firefox
    says:
    Sunday, January 26, 2020 at 7:49 am
    “Ah, another poll confirming mainstream Australians are happy with the leaving Australia day right where it is each year. 2 out of 3 is pretty darn good imho.”
    ______________________
    Confirms my theory that most white Australians didn’t give a shit about Australia Day until they realised how much it pissed off indigenous Australians.

  18. Reading the honours list, if you are a failed Liberal Premier, you are eligible for an AO it would seem.

    Ted Bailleau
    Campbell Newman
    Barry O’Farrell

    Isn’t the plum government funded board seats sufficient?

  22. sprocket:

    Campbell Newman! At least the other two had some kind of record in public life, but Newman was just a flash in the pan!

  24. And Amanda Vanstone celebrated her AO receipt yesterday by joining the SmearStralian slagging of Yassmin Abdel-Magied over a literary prize.

    The citation reads ‘For services to culture wars, in particular the bad mouthing of talented brown people’

  27. There is a small twitterstorm about the awarding of an Order of Australia to Bettina Arndt for her services to “gender equity”. I gather that among other things she insists that males are more likely to suffer domestic violence than females, and women who are sexually assaulted are “asking for it”. I’m assuming she has been promoted by the men who believe that fathers should retain custody of their children after divorce. A Pauline Hanson fan?

  30. No, I’m not making this up. Bettina also urged wives to be ready at the door when hubby comes home.

    Tasmanian teacher rapes a student, is found with child pornography and makes child exploitation material, all of which he is convicted for and Bettina Arndt publicly sympathised with him, even stating that ‘seductive school girls are ruining the careers of male teachers’.

  34. Almost by accident last night I found myself watching – via SBS TV

    Monty Python’s Accidental Studio

    The echoes of Monty Python’s influence continue to be heard loudly in comedy today, and generations who weren’t born when the original TV show was first broadcast have had their lives changed by it. In this they have something in common with George Harrison, who as a Beatle said that Python saved his sanity, and later became best friends with Python’s Eric Idle.

    When the Pythons learned that funding for their epic biblical spoof Life of Brian, above, had fallen through, it was Harrison who came to the rescue, mortgaging his mansion and forming the company HandMade Films to make sure he would get to see the movie – “the most expensive cinema ticket in history” as Idle put it.

    The film company ended up breaking new ground with more ahead-of-the-curve flicks, from Time Bandits to Withnail and I. Interviews with comedic and cinematic legends, and Harrison himself, help flesh out the tale of the studio born from one artist’s desire to help out his fellow creatives.

  35. I was amazed when Scott Morrison didn’t appoint Bettina Arndt to chair the ABC. She also edited a magazine after all. 😉

  36. @TheAusInstitute
    ·

    “Some ppl are so desperate to avoid talking about climate change, they’re effectively arguing the solution to fires is getting rid of the forests. Seems like an extreme way to avoid the conversation about phasing out coal” –

  39. Sarah BurrisVerified account@SarahBurris
    2h2 hours ago
    Republicans can’t wait to give Trump a pass on impeachment so he’ll quit threatening them: @TheRickWilson

  40. In a nice touch of nose rubbing by ScottyFromMarketing, the sole Labor Party figure to get an AO is George Wright – who as ALP National Secretary oversaw defeats at the 2013 and 2016 elections.

  41. I ran into a couple of friends yesterday in Sydney who had come down from the Central Coast to attend the Indigenous people’s vigil to mark Invasion Day.

    It was solemn and respectful and the Indigenous people have every right to conduct the vigil.

  42. Greg Jericho with some sombre thoughts on Australia Day …

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2020/jan/26/if-you-love-australia-climate-change-should-scare-the-hell-out-of-you

    If you love Australia, climate change should scare the hell out of you because the reef, our rivers, our wildlife, our fresh air, even, as we have seen since December, our relaxed summer holidays are going to be stripped away from us.

    Our government has more reason than most others outside of the Pacific Islands to be demanding global action on climate change.

    Given our wealth we should be leading the way – leading by example rather than leading to ruin as our current government has been at the most recent climate change conferences.

    What we love about Australia will be taken by climate change well before other nations who emit much more greenhouse gas will feel great changes. And that should enrage us and our representatives, and it should drive their actions.

    I love Australia and so I want action on climate change. And if you love Australia, so should you.

  44. Confessions @ #22 Sunday, January 26th, 2020 – 7:13 am

    sprocket:

    Campbell Newman! At least the other two had some kind of record in public life, but Newman was just a flash in the pan!

    Not defending Newman, who was horrible in my view.

    However, he was elected twice as Lord Mayor of Brisbane a government covering a population bigger than Tasmania. He was very prominent in Queensland politics before being elected Premier.

  46. AO recipient Barry O’Farrell was NSW Premier for 3 years and 26 days, he achieved a lot… and it wasn’t just the faulty memory about the $3,000 bottle of Grange

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/faulty-ofarrells-scandalous-premiership,6391

    In the short time O’Farrell has been Premier there has been almost more scandals and scandal prone ministers than you can count.

    Some of these include:

    The alleged public masturbation of Arts Minister George Souris;

    Environment Minister Robyn Parker, who thinks logging is good for koalas;

    Health Minister Jillian Skinner, whose office is evacuated at the threat of a few nurses delivering her a cake;

    Education Minister Adrian Piccoli, a man who publicly signs a pledge to maintain TAFE funding in his campaign and then slashes TAFE services as part of the Coalition’s $1.8 Billion education cuts, which cost 800 TAFE workers their job;

    Piccoli is also famous for leaving disabled children stranded by the side of the road when he changed their transportion service;

    Emergency Services Minister Michael Gallacher, who I believe is the first minister in Australia to ever have his Party actually booed out of Parliament by a gallery full of police;

    Gallacher also made the decision to close fire stations around the state during a heat wave and spate of bushfires, forcing communities to rely on volunteer services and fire services from other areas which were left unprotected.

    There’s Attorney General Greg Smith who insults the victims of paedophiles and supports priests charged with sexually assaulting multiple young children, then puts forward legislation, now passed, so that most of the victims of these paedophile priests will never be compensated.

    And we shouldn’t forget Community Services Minister Pru Goward, who has overseen what many have described as a public housing crisis and has brought about such chaos in the Department Of Community Services that child welfare is at arguably its lowest point ever and there now talk that Federal intervention will be required.

    On top of that, we have seen three NSW Liberal Party MP’s forced to stand down after ICAC hearings and raids — one of those being Chris Hartcher, a front bench Minister.

    It is not often that we see a premier forced out of office due to ICAC findings; the last time it happened was back in 1992, when another Liberal Party Premier, Nick Greiner, fell on his sword.

  47. If the Corona virus spreads Australian universities will take a hit. Not just from Chinese students but other nationalities wishing to avoid the disease. They will have to decide soon.

  50. Firefox says:
    Sunday, January 26, 2020 at 8:13 am

    “Are you swallowing Sandersguff?”

    ***

    Mate did you even bother to read the article you linked to?’

    From the article: ‘Basically, Hitler didn’t win those [elections]…’

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