BludgerTrack leadership trends

A small measure of historical perspective for this week’s leadership polling, on which Scott Morrison lost his lead as preferred prime minister from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

It’s not exactly news that I’ve got BludgerTrack going to the extent of running leadership trends, which I launched about a month ago, but under the circumstances (and for the want of much else to blog about, which I’ll get to shortly) I thought it worth drawing attention to again. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new sets of numbers this week, and while some have questioned the value of polling in high summer while holidays are being had and fires are being fought, they were interesting in their consistency: Newspoll recorded a 19% drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval while Essential had it at 14%, and both found Anthony Albanese opening slight leads on preferred prime minister.

All of this comes through loud and clear in the trends you can see on the sidebar (or in closer detail at the link below). Morrison’s post-election bounce was already coming off before the fires, but the trend has now become a freefall he must hope will reverse in fairly short order. By my reckoning, out of 673 preferred prime minister results published by Newspoll as far back as 1987, the incumbent has led in 519 (77.2%) and the Opposition Leader in 140 (20.8%), with thirteen (1.9%) being tied. However, this hasn’t offered much of a guide for the leaders’ future prospects. Malcolm Turnbull had an unblemished record, as did Kevin Rudd in his first tenure (Tony Abbott took the lead in the first two polls before the 2013 election), while John Howard trailed in early 2001 and for much of the second half of his first term, as did Paul Keating more often than not before the 1993 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,599 comments on “BludgerTrack leadership trends”

Comments Page 44 of 52
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  2. Honestly how insane are they in the United States , why waste taxpayers money on an impeachment trial with a Judge , who cannot do anything if the Majority of the senate favours Trump.

    What is the point of this farce , if they were serious of impeachment the trial would be in a court of Law with no senators as jurors

  3. “ According to a report at Fox News, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is consulting with senior members of his party in an attempt to cobble to together a “kill switch” rule that would allow him to dismiss the articles of impeachment in the Senate against Donald Trump quickly after a minimum of evidence has been presented.”

    What scope is there for the House to then Subpoena the witnesses that should have been called (Parnas and Bolton for instance) so that their testimony is at least on the public record?

  4. Rakali

    😆 Re Boris. Just what the Scots need to make them love being ruled by England . Seeing and hearing more from a born to rule Old Etonian posho Sassenach roaming around their country.

  5. The Trump impeachment trial , is like one of Morrison’s cronies getting tried by the house of reps , where Morrison and his cronies have the majority .

  6. Thanks, BK.

    Grattan is on the case!

    The real Sleazy has come out from under his rock fairly quickly:
    condones rampant corruption
    bad-tempered
    arrogant
    smug
    shameless
    mendacious
    suffers from religious delusions
    secretive
    evasive
    abusive
    torpid in policy
    manic in political self-preservation
    scientifically illiterate
    hangs around with sleazy mates like Trump and Huston.

    Those who spent six years helping to Kill Bill and Sink Labor helped this very same Sleazy get in.
    Those who seek to assassinate Albo and sink Labor are helping this very same Sleazy to stay in.

  8. RBA told to ‘mobilise all forces’ to save the economy from climate change

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/rba-told-to-mobilise-all-forces-to-save-the-economy-from-climate-change-20200120-p53szi.html

    The Reserve Bank has been warned it may have to buy up coal mines and fossil-fuel power stations as part of extraordinary actions to save the economy from climate change-induced financial disaster.

    As Australian business leaders grow increasingly worried climate change will hit their bottom lines and the International Monetary Fund warns global warming is now a major financial risk, a new warning issued by the world’s top central bank says the RBA could be forced into rescuing the economy and the environment.

    Three separate reports released on the same day, coinciding with Australia’s worst bushfire season and ongoing political division over environmental policy, point to increasing fears among economic policy leaders that climate change could cause the next global financial breakdown.

  10. Peg
    Shearman assassinates Albo and slags Labor.
    Same old same old.
    The only open question is whether he is a Coalition supporter or a Greens supporter.
    BTW, shouldn’t you be out on a Greens Party protest.
    Now is the right time!

  14. Scott @ #2152 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 5:38 am

    Honestly how insane are they in the United States , why waste taxpayers money on an impeachment trial with a Judge , who cannot do anything if the Majority of the senate favours Trump.

    What is the point of this farce , if they were serious of impeachment the trial would be in a court of Law with no senators as jurors

    Senate Republicans were always going to ensure as little time as possible was given to a proper trial. They are doing Trump’s bidding in an effort to save their political skin, Moscow Mitch in particular.

  16. poroti

    There seems to be a lot of delusional thinking south of Hadrians Wall.

    “ Another Tory insider claimed: “Once more people see Boris on the ground, they will warm to him. He has to have longer stays in Scotland, for two or three days, and not just be seen as a visiting Governor General who pops across the border every now and again for a few hours.”

    Anyway, Alister Jack, Tory Secretary of State for Scotland, is already called the Governor General of Scotland

  17. PeeBee @ #2129 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 7:09 am

    Mavis:’The lesson I know is to look after the innocence of the child.’

    It is interesting that Catholics force kids to take confession. The assumption that they are doing wrong things – ie are bad people. Most kids are innocent of any wrong doing, yet the Catholic Church sees them as sinners. In fact, they believe children are born with sin. How brutal is that?

    The RCC are good at making people feel guilty.

    It’s a scam.

    Tell them they’re born a sinner, and then tell them the way to get forgiven is to go to one of their self-appointed priests who by virtue (sic) of an ordination ritual is deigned to have a direct and divine connection to a god and that god’s forgiveness is bestowed by the church agent, who might actually be practising pedophile.

    Give. Me. A. Break.

  18. Paul Barratt
    @phbarratt
    ·
    10m
    Howard sneered at the very notion of “frank and fearless advice”. Not the job of public servants to give advice was his attitude – just get on and implement government policy. The rot started there. Two of his clones have since become PM and continued the destruction he started.

  19. Scott

    ‘What is the point of this farce , if they were serious of impeachment the trial would be in a court of Law with no senators as jurors..’

    Well, they have to use the processes that are in place legally. The Constitution sets this out, so it can’t be easily changed.

    The point is to hold Trump to account. It may not be effective, but it’s the only tool they have.

    Ultimately, it’s better to take a stand against wrong doing than go “Oh, what we’re doing isn’t going to be effective, so why bother?”

  20. Itza

    I had a friend who was an atheist, living in ‘sin’, etc etc, who got a gig at a Catholic school.

    Confession was compulsory, but she found herself inventing sins to confess, as she didn’t regard anything she was doing in her life as ‘wrong’.

  21. When the conservative press turns against you…

    The Lancet
    @TheLancet
    · Jan 17
    Editorial: The #AustraliaFires were expected. Fires of this size & spread have been feared by climate scientists for years, with links firmly established between rising global temperatures & conditions that enable bushfires. How will Australia recover? https://hubs.ly/H0mD4610

  22. zoomster @ #2169 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 8:55 am

    Scott

    ‘What is the point of this farce , if they were serious of impeachment the trial would be in a court of Law with no senators as jurors..’

    Well, they have to use the processes that are in place legally. The Constitution sets this out, so it can’t be easily changed.

    The point is to hold Trump to account. It may not be effective, but it’s the only tool they have.

    Ultimately, it’s better to take a stand against wrong doing than go “Oh, what we’re doing isn’t going to be effective, so why bother?”

    Telling lies is a sin.

  25. How good is this?

    Brendan Nelson onto a nice little earner at Boeing and why not?
    He delivered!
    He connived at Boeing and others rebranding the War Memorial as an Arms Manufacturers Hall of Shame.
    He connived at the War Memorial getting a half billion dollars while there is a vets’ suicide epidemic and while civic national institutions are being gutted by Sleazy and his pals.
    What goes round, comes round.

  27. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) was among the institutions hit worst, with large holes seen in the roofs of a number of their glasshouses where experiments were underway.

    Chief operating officer Judi Zielke said the storm damaged about 65 of their glasshouses, destroying years of research.

    “We’re very fortunate that none of our staff were hurt,” Ms Zielke said.

    “Those 65 glasshouses of course held a lot of research and we’re really feeling for our scientists at the moment that are so dedicated to their work and have spent years working on some of the projects in there.

    “Unfortunately, most of those projects will be totally lost.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-21/years-of-scientific-research-lost-in-canberra-hailstorm/11884062

  28. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 8:55 am
    Scott

    Well, they have to use the processes that are in place legally. The Constitution sets this out, so it can’t be easily changed.

    The point is to hold Trump to account. It may not be effective, but it’s the only tool they have.

    Ultimately, it’s better to take a stand against wrong doing than go “Oh, what we’re doing isn’t going to be effective, so why bother?”
    ————————————————-

    It shows how idiotic it is , they are not holding Trump accountable if Trump’s own people have the majority .

    They should have a joint sitting of both houses , then see if Trump has the Majority

  31. Rakali @8.27 am.

    “And in a major boost for independence……… Boris Johnson is to spend more time in Scotland!!! ”

    Going on the annual wild haggis hunt?

  32. zoomster

    Confession was compulsory, but she found herself inventing sins to confess,

    At primary school in my class we had just 1 catholic. It was quite ‘exotic’ to hear her tales each week as she went through confirmation .Then the even more exotic , Confession. It all sounded most strange but to this day I remember her complaint about the toughest part of Confession. Every week , making up a ‘sin’ to confess. It had to be not too trivial but not too serious 😆

  33. Here’s how this might play out: McConnell would introduce the organizing resolution and seek to pass it with 51 votes. If efforts to amend the resolution are unsuccessful, a Democratic senator would then make a point of order on the basis that 67 votes are required. And it would then be up to Roberts to rule on the point of order—presumably with the advice of the Senate parliamentarian, who will be at his side throughout the trial.

    How Roberts handles this issue will likely be the first glimpse of what we can expect from Roberts in the trial going forward. He could rule with vigor—or timidity. Senators could accept the ruling—or any one senator could ask for a formal vote. Alternatively, Roberts could put the vote to members of the Senate without making a ruling or recommendation.

    There has been a great deal of speculation on what role Roberts intends to play in the Senate trial. Will he engage actively, like Chief Justice Salmon Chase in the impeachment trial of Andrew Johnson, or will he largely sit back and let the Senate do as it wishes, like Chief Justice William Rehnquist during Bill Clinton’s trial? Perhaps, thanks to McConnell, we may have an answer to that question as soon as the trial begins.

    https://www.lawfareblog.com/first-test-chief-justice-roberts-mcconnells-organizing-resolution-impeachment

    Trial commences Tuesday in the US (tomorrow), so we’ll find out then how it’s all likely to go.

  34. Jack Waterford – How rorting sporting grants became a bipartisan game.

    https://johnmenadue.com/jack-waterford-how-rorting-sporting-grants-became-a-bipartisan-game/

    Kelly insisted that there had been due process. Yet once she promised to give $250,000 to the Altone Park community recreation centre in the marginal seat of Perth. The money, it seemed, was to come from next year’s grants, even before applications for these grants had been called for or assessed, and before any submission asking for it. It did rather tend to undermine her claim that she had applied a needs test. A Labor candidate for the marginal Liberal seat of Ballarat announced a winning grant before applications had closed, let alone considered.
    :::
    That the other side has done much the same thing is never an acceptable excuse. Just listen, for example, to the standards that political leaders claim to be the proper ones when they are criticising the actions of the other side in government. They do not say, “seeing you have done that we will, when elected, do it too.’’ To the contrary they proclaim themselves to be of superior virtue. The lowest-common-denominator excuse – “I am no worse than you” — is a reason why the people are losing faith and confidence in politicians, and in democracy.
    :::
    But the attitude shows a corruption of the spirit, and a betrayal of basic principles of good, honest and accountable government in the public interest. And instinctive defence of those who abuse power, on the ground that they are “our “rascals not theirs suggests that our leaders have no moral bottom, and no real concern for fairness, the public or the public interest. It’s not leadership.
    :::
    I have been writing about politics and public administration for decades. I am generally reluctant to declare that standards of this or that have risen or fallen, or that the calibre of ministers and political leaders has deteriorated. But it is plain that ministerial responsibility is becoming a dead letter under successive prime ministers, Liberal and Labor, and that it is now at its lowest ebb. Prime ministers in particular do not enforce the written standards, so long as they think they can get away with it politically. There seems no shortage of “independent” officials that they can cite in defence of the proposition that the standard does not apply in this particular case. Rationalising obviously bad behaviour is in the modern bureaucrat skill-set.

    It seems to me that corruption and maladministration in government are increasing. This is in part because old systems of checks and balances are becoming increasingly ineffective, and because modern, meaningful agile and resilient leaders no longer preach or practise the virtues of integrity and regard for the public interest. And because more and more modern politicians, including Morrison, are allowed to get away without being made to answer questions. They obfuscate. They answer questions they were not asked. They invent bubbles. They deflect, usually with attacks on the other side, implying that the mote in their eye, if it exists at all, is but nothing to the beam in Labor’s. They declare questions out of bounds, or say they have dealt with issues when they haven’t. Journalists who try to insist on answers face intimidation, sometimes even by their own employers, and, sometimes, raids by a politicised police force.

    Good government and regard for integrity and good process are not impositions on politicians who want to advance legitimate ideas and ideals. That is, unless, a governing party – and perhaps the general political milieu – has been overtaken by a culture of rorting, misappropriation of public resources and abuse of power.

  35. From the BK Files.

    Hotel comparison website Trivago breached Australian consumer law by misleading consumers on which hotel deals were best, the Australian Federal Court has found. And apart from that the woman who stars in their TV ads is the most smug, up herself character going around.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/trivago-misled-consumers-in-favour-of-advertiser-dollars-federal-court-finds-20200120-p53t40.html

    I quite like the older lady (but then I like just about every older lady).
    The add is better watched with the sound off.
    The add is best watched with the TV off and good book open.

  37. Rick
    @colonelhogans
    ·
    1m
    Over HALF A BILLION DOLLARS collected….yet a poor old man can’t even get a fucking Panadol off FOUR paramedics without being “registered”! People with no homes being rejected by Centrelink! Where’s ⁦
    @JoshFrydenberg⁩ #ScottyfromMarketing

    Ms Harvey has tried, and failed, twice to get the $1000 one-off emergency payout the Federal Government has allowed for bushfire victims.

    She’s eligible, but that’s not the issue.

    “They want me to provide bank account details from when I last received a government assistance payment over 25 years ago,” she said.

    Ms Harvey also doesn’t have a computer, as it was burned in the fire, making things more difficult. She was eventually told she must go to a Centrelink centre in person rather than talk to someone over the phone.

    “Seriously, who has the time? We have nothing, and if I find a spare hour to get off the property and away from dealing with our injured wildlife, a shower is my first priority,” she said.

    Ms Harvey’s property in the Mogo State Forest burned down on New Year’s Eve. She’s only had three showers since then.

    Her next attempt to get the emergency payment reaped the same results – this time she showed up in person but the computers were down, so she was sent home.

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/outrageous-red-tape-stopping-bushfire-victims-getting-the-help-they-need/news-story/58c37b1f6821ab897145befaec1868db

  38. KayJay

    The ads are very weird – they promote a service which no one I know of used Trivago for.

    What the consumer uses these sites for is to find a hotel – any hotel – which matches their criteria. They then compare the hotels on offer.

    The ads seem to think that consumers are trying to find the best deal on a specific hotel – in other words, that every hotel has several different prices advertised, which are different to the one they charge if you rock up there. (I’m not even sure that’s a Thing).

  39. lizzie at 9.06

    There is more detail in The Canberra Times. I found this para interesting (not reported on the ABC site):

    “Fifteen glasshouses did survive the storm because they were older structures which used thicker glass from decades ago – the glass in the undamaged glasshouses was thick enough for a person to walk on so the hail just bounced off. ”

    ….everything done on the cheap these days!

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6589588/hail-smashes-csiro-glasshouse-crop-research/?cs=14225

  40. “They want me to provide bank account details from when I last received a government assistance payment over 25 years ago,” she said.

    Every example I am reading suggests that we have finally entered the world of Catch 22.
    Shorten explained this morning that whenever an NDIS customer fails to spend their annual grant because of lack of services, the following year they receive a smaller grant because they have ‘proved’ they don’t need it.

    How shall we ever recover from this disastrous administration?

  41. lizzie @ 9.14

    “Ms Harvey also doesn’t have a computer, as it was burned in the fire, making things more difficult. She was eventually told she must go to a Centrelink centre in person rather than talk to someone over the phone.

    “Seriously, who has the time? We have nothing, and if I find a spare hour to get off the property and away from dealing with our injured wildlife, a shower is my first priority,” she said.”

    ______________________________________

    This is where the real damage to the nasties in Government will be done. Centrelink structurally is set up to make it as difficult as possible to claim benefits. It has not just been hollowed out but restaffed and restructured to achieve this. Centrelink culture from the top down is focussed on being difficult and demanding and inaccessible.

    All very good when the victims are powerless and low information. But the new victims (and their families and friends) are people who have never imagine themselves as welfare recipients. They can accept what nature does, but they will never accept what their own government does to them.

  43. Rick
    @colonelhogans
    ·
    1m
    Over HALF A BILLION DOLLARS collected….yet a poor old man can’t even get a fucking Panadol off FOUR paramedics without being “registered”! People with no homes being rejected by Centrelink! Where’s ⁦
    @JoshFrydenberg⁩ #ScottyfromMarketing,

    That is the sort of thing that will be a vote killer for Scrott. Shitloads of people finding out just how deliberately shit and often cruel government services are for people in need. They’ll get to enjoy what many of them would have referred to as “dole bludgers” have to put up with.

  44. Has anyone seen Peter Dutton being interviewed about his views on corruption in office and whether his views on CC have changed as a result of recent natural disasters?

  46. Senators who vote for Trump’s vindication are blessing such corruption in the future: columnist

    In an op-ed published at The Washington Post this Monday, Michael Gerson argues that despite Donald Trump’s election promises of rooting out corruption and fixing the ‘broken’ culture in Washington, he has instead called upon his party and followers to “normalize corruption and brokenness as essential features of our political order.”

    “And because Trump denies any wrongdoing — pronouncing his own actions “perfect” — senators who vote for his vindication are effectively blessing such abuses in the future,” Gerson writes. “Their action would set an expectation of corruption at the highest levels of our government.”

    According to Gerson, Trump’s approach to governing resembles a “crime syndicate.” – “Anyone Trump can hire or fire is assumed to be an operative, sworn to personal loyalty,” he writes

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-pushes-his-party-to-normalize-corruption/2020/01/20/0922102c-3bc1-11ea-b90d-5652806c3b3a_story.html

  48. OK, so I was lying on the floor unable to move and unable to be moved without massive doses of painkillers and medical supervision.

    My son rang triple zero, got the ambulance, all good.

    Five minutes later, we were rung back to be told that, as we were in a fire zone, no ambulance could come to us (this despite the fact that we had been allowed to return). Someone would ring us soon with further information, we were told.

    After waiting 20 minutes, my son rang again. Again, someone would ring us back.

    Another half hour later, he rang them again….

    In the meantime, my other son was at a party in Melbourne with the daughter of one of the local cops. She rang her Dad, who sorted it out, providing the ambulance with a police escort to our place.

    It worked out OK for me in the end, but it’s worrying if this is standard practice.

    (I have contacted two MPs in State government, one of whom has been in almost constant contact with me over the last few weeks, so I’m hoping that this won’t be an issue for anyone in the future).

  49. TPOF @ #2191 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 9:24 am

    lizzie @ 9.14

    “Ms Harvey also doesn’t have a computer, as it was burned in the fire, making things more difficult. She was eventually told she must go to a Centrelink centre in person rather than talk to someone over the phone.

    “Seriously, who has the time? We have nothing, and if I find a spare hour to get off the property and away from dealing with our injured wildlife, a shower is my first priority,” she said.”

    ______________________________________

    This is where the real damage to the nasties in Government will be done. Centrelink structurally is set up to make it as difficult as possible to claim benefits. It has not just been hollowed out but restaffed and restructured to achieve this. Centrelink culture from the top down is focussed on being difficult and demanding and inaccessible.

    All very good when the victims are powerless and low information. But the new victims (and their families and friends) are people who have never imagine themselves as welfare recipients. They can accept what nature does, but they will never accept what their own government does to them.

    This will be sheeted back to Stuart Robert whose tenure as minister has been about reducing costs by digitalization, reducing contact visits with staff, using a phone service and cracking down on entitlements.

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