BludgerTrack leadership trends

A small measure of historical perspective for this week’s leadership polling, on which Scott Morrison lost his lead as preferred prime minister from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

It’s not exactly news that I’ve got BludgerTrack going to the extent of running leadership trends, which I launched about a month ago, but under the circumstances (and for the want of much else to blog about, which I’ll get to shortly) I thought it worth drawing attention to again. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided new sets of numbers this week, and while some have questioned the value of polling in high summer while holidays are being had and fires are being fought, they were interesting in their consistency: Newspoll recorded a 19% drop in Scott Morrison’s net approval while Essential had it at 14%, and both found Anthony Albanese opening slight leads on preferred prime minister.

All of this comes through loud and clear in the trends you can see on the sidebar (or in closer detail at the link below). Morrison’s post-election bounce was already coming off before the fires, but the trend has now become a freefall he must hope will reverse in fairly short order. By my reckoning, out of 673 preferred prime minister results published by Newspoll as far back as 1987, the incumbent has led in 519 (77.2%) and the Opposition Leader in 140 (20.8%), with thirteen (1.9%) being tied. However, this hasn’t offered much of a guide for the leaders’ future prospects. Malcolm Turnbull had an unblemished record, as did Kevin Rudd in his first tenure (Tony Abbott took the lead in the first two polls before the 2013 election), while John Howard trailed in early 2001 and for much of the second half of his first term, as did Paul Keating more often than not before the 1993 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,599 comments on “BludgerTrack leadership trends”

  1. Guytaur says:
    Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at 10:34 pm

    frednk

    I don’t see Fitzgibbon running Labor’s climate policy. Or are you telling us something we don’t know?

    Then why do you want him kicked out of the party? He represents diversity, big deal.

  2. frednk

    I just stated that with Fitzgibbon making comments like that Labor has a major political problem. Same as Morrison’s. Coal huggers unite!!

  3. Shellbell

    Do you think there are any potential perjury charges arising out of the Vic police lawyer-X RC? Is denying diaries exist then finding them perjury? Or do charges only apply to witness evidence in the box and not to submissions? The article says the diaries are in Overland’s own handwriting.

  4. Socrates ”..NSW Labor corruption has cost the party dearly at state and federal elections ever since, so I have little time for it, or those who still cover for it, under the delusion that nobody will notice.

    Next you will tell me Kaila Murnain will be our next female PM.”

    Obeid is a convicted criminal, just out of jail. Other members of that Government are serving sentences. The law has been applied. I am not “covering” for them, in fact I’m not sure how I would do that even if I wanted to.

    Labor has been out of office in NSW for 9 years. Meanwhile we have a corrupt and incompetent Government in Canberra now. Why not pile on the Coalition for the corruption of the Askin era? Or the current NSW Government for some of the very dubious looking deals – tearing down and rebuilding functioning infrastructure?

    I want to concentrate on them. There are more than enough people on the job in attacking Labor for past wrongs. I don’t need to join in.

    As for our next female PM, at this stage it looks more likely to be some frightful Thatcher clone from the “Liberals”.

  5. Bugger the tennis.

    Just left Marvel Stadium after a fun nights entertainment.

    Not sure what sort of game it was but there was plenty of excitement.

  6. He loves to twist words around to suit himself, does Scott Morrison:

    “You talk about action on climate change, that’s what that is. Hazard reduction is action to take account of the climate we’re living in

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-says-hazard-reduction-burns-are-climate-action-20200121-p53tha.html

    Jesus freaking christ! Burning more leaves and understory in the bush will put MORE CO2 into the air! It will do NOTHING to alleviate Climate Change. This Evo Idiot is a menace to society! And the natural environment!

  7. Hazard Reduction is BIG.

    Lady in the local bottle shop today blamed “Greenies” for restricting back burning via “red tape”.

    When I asked her which Greenies were on the local council, she couldn’t name one. Which motions had been passed into law? Silence. When we’re the laws passed? No idea.

    But she knew it was “bloody Greenies” for sure. Something to do with the United Nations.

  8. Cat
    “You have no idea about the current state of NSW Labor. I do wish you’d stop projecting your prejudices onto it.”

    I was told I had no idea when I raised concerns about Obeid here years ago too. Silly me. NSW Labor is going great: strong, popular, a string of great leaders, and with enormous public goodwill.

    Steve

    That is all fair enough, and I do not dispute that the current Liberal government is corrupt either, especially the Federal one, which is in that respect the worst Federal government I have experienced in my career. I was objecting to your timeline for Obeid, which I found to be “minimalist”.

    Why Labor did not make more of the Federal corruption in the last election campaign I will never understand.

  9. Cat

    To offer a constructive comment, Labor should at this point absolutely go after the Sydney SE LRT project. More than twice the price per km of any other LRT built in Australia, delayed, slow, underused and now not even reliable. Compare with Canberra and Gold Coast to see the level of failure.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/light-rail-breaks-down-in-cbd-20200121-p53tgs.html

    Gladys had her name all over this from day one. It seems plain the people running the project did not understand the technology.

    So in going after their corruption, don’t leave out the incompetence.

  10. Also in today’s Crikey, a helpful reminder for Scotty as to who Matt Kean is. Looks to me to have the perfect Liberal pedigree.

    Kean, leader of the moderate faction in NSW, has the CV typical of a Liberal rising star.

    Raised in Sydney’s leafy upper north shore, he was educated at St Ignatius Riverview, the exclusive Sydney Jesuit school that counts Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce among its alums. Kean’s teenage political awakening came during a campaign against over-development in his local suburb of Hornsby.

    Despite being wooed by the ALP, Kean was allegedly pushed toward the Liberals by Wendy Quinn, now his fiancee.

    What followed for Kean was a breezy ride along a well-trodden conveyor belt — student politics at University of Technology Sydney, a stint as an adviser for opposition leader John Brogden, management consulting at PricewaterhouseCoopers, and vice-presidency of the NSW Young Liberals.

  11. Re Socrates @11:03.
    Agree 100%. The Light Rail seems to have been a dogs breakfast from go to whoa. It was a mess while it was being built and a dogs breakfast when implemented. It takes 50 minutes to go from Circular Quay to Randwick (about 8 km) when it doesn’t break down. A completely botched job.

  12. Watching Davos via Guardian Link. Australian Bushfires photo big part of Backdrop to speakers on the Panel.

    Edit: one of the speakers is head of the Rockefeller Foundation

    Oh and if I heard correctly China is backing Greta Thunberg.

  13. BB
    Hazard Reduction is BIG.
    Lady in the local bottle shop today blamed “Greenies” for restricting back burning via “red tape”.

    When I asked her which Greenies were on the local council, she couldn’t name one. Which motions had been passed into law? Silence. When we’re the laws passed? No idea.

    But she knew it was “bloody Greenies” for sure. Something to do with the United Nations.

    And that would be the view of all who know her. Same old excuses. Just clueless and brainwashed.

  14. Boerwar @ #2495 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 3:18 pm

    A Nationals MP has called for Kean to be stripped of his environment portfolio.
    Sleazy’s rabble are hard at it. The fires are not even out yet and they are baying for blood – each other’s.

    Well he has demonstrated that he has some sort of grasp of the portfolio, so he should go on the grounds of demonstrating gross competency.

  15. Labor should try and flip Kean.
    God I’d love to see something like that happen.

    It’d be smart for Labor to invite him in, if only to try and isolate him.
    Anyway,
    I’m starting to suspect that Smoko and probably the government will not go full term. Keep an eye out for the big R that is coming later this year.

    Oh and also keep an eye out for all the apartments that may start falling apart. That’s going to be our winter crisis.

  16. I was told I had no idea when I raised concerns about Obeid here years ago too. Silly me. NSW Labor is going great: strong, popular, a string of great leaders, and with enormous public goodwill.

    Oh, I see, the peerless perception of the sometimes correct. How could I have missed that? Silly me!

    I mean, you know, just ignore who is running the NSW Labor Opposition, um, like now. That would be Jodi McKay, the woman who stood up to the Obeid gang in the NSW ICAC. Do accept my abject apologies on her behalf that she hasn’t taken the engineering whinge about the Light Rail on, she has been busy touring communities razed by the bushfires.

    However, never fear, you can have your pecadilloes satisfied about the Light Rail debacle with the knowledge that the person who is on track to be the next General Secretary of NSW Labor, after the Lavarch recommendations are FULLY implemented, is the former General Secretary of the Rail, Tram and Bus Union, Bob Nanva. A person, you may, maybe if you get the shit off your liver, want to know has had zero to do with the Obeids, Joe Tripodi, Kaila Murnain, Jamie Clements, or any other NSW Labor bogeyman or woman you think you can see from South Australia.

    But please accept our humblest apologies for not having reformed NSW Labor to your standard over Christmas and New Year.

  17. Steve777 @ #2567 Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 – 11:51 pm

    The Hazard Reduction Lie is big and the Federal Government is going to spend tens of millions on a Royal Commission to push it.

    I keep wondering how Morrison is going to stop the dry lightning though? The stuff that ignites fires in trees that have dried out due to Climate Change. Maybe he’ll get a tame lapdog to recommend cutting down all the trees next and replacing them with Evo Mega Churches instead? 😐

  18. I mean, I live around trees, and they drop dead leaves every day! So, what’s Morrison want, ‘Hazard Reduction’ teams with rakes to come through every forest and every National Park every day of the year!?!

  19. Pretty much everyone in NSW knew that Obeid was up to all sorts of things for decades. As long as his exposure was minimal and he raised money for the party he was supported and promoted until he de facto controlled the State government.

  20. “Guytaur. You really DO need to drop that “coal hugger” turn of phrase.
    Completely unhelpful. You just get people’s backs up for no gain or progress in the discussion.”

    Agreed. Its annoying and achieves nothing.

  21. Leaf blowers are good for cleaning out gutters, otherwise they’re just something you can use to turn your problem into someone else’s (and vice versa).

  22. In WA, bush firefighters are taking to leaf blowers in a big way. In the past a thing called a rake hoe (affectionally known as a dugite – try to avoid touching one) was used to clear leaves to create a fire break. Now blowers are used. Much much quicker and doesn’t knock you out.

  23. “Morrison has doubled down on his government’s environment policies”

    This isn’t an environment policy FFS. I’d like to wring his neck. But I bet it get votes from all the ignorant.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has argued hazard reduction burning is action “to take account of the climate we’re living in,” and said any royal commission into Australia’s bushfire crisis should take no more than six months.

    Amid intense criticism from Labor on the level of the government’s emissions reduction target and its use of carryover credits to meet it, Mr Morrison said hazard reduction burning would have a more concrete impact on fire risk.

    “You talk about action on climate change, that’s what that is. Hazard reduction is action to take account of the climate we’re living in, which is a more challenging environment over the next decade and beyond,” Mr Morrison said.

    In an interview with Sky News, Mr Morrison said hazard reduction was as “important as emissions reduction and I think many would argue even more so because it has an even more direct, practical impact on the safety of a person going into a bushfire season”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-says-hazard-reduction-burns-are-climate-action-20200121-p53tha.html

  24. Emma Meconi

    9h
    That man who got the tradie career adviser gig for #ScottyFomMarketing is raking in the dough, isn’t he? Just saw him in a Jatz commercial. Nice little earner. On top of everything else. How will he find the time to give career advice to aspiring tradies?

    He’d be more use as a firefighter.

  25. Lizzie, take consultation that fish probably thought a short life on the outside is better than a long life in a fish tank went for it and died free.

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